Long-term changes in oxygen depletion in a small temperate lake: effects of climate change and eutrophication

1. We analysed 41 years of data (1968–2008) from Blelham Tarn, U.K., to determine the consequences of eutrophication and climate warming on hypolimnetic dissolved oxygen (DO).
2. The establishment of thermal stratification was strongly related to the onset of DO depletion in the lower hypolimnion. As a result of a progressively earlier onset of stratification and later overturn, the duration of stratification increased by 38 ± 8 days over the 41 years.
3. The observed rate of volumetric hypolimnetic oxygen depletion (VHODobs) ranged from 0.131 to 0.252 g O2 m−3 per day and decreased significantly over the study period, despite the increase in the mean chlorophyll a (Chl a) concentration in the growing season. The vertical transport of DO represented from 0 to 30% of VHODobs, while adjustments for interannual differences in hypolimnetic temperature were less important, ranging from −11 to 9% of VHODobs.
4. The mean wind speed during May made the strongest significant contribution to the variation in VHODobs. VHODobs adjusted for the vertical transport of DO and hypolimnetic temperature differences, VHODadj, was significantly related to the upper mixed layer Chl a concentration during spring.
5. Hypolimnetic anoxia (HA) ranged from 27 to 168 days per year and increased significantly over time, which undoubtedly had negative ecological consequences for the lake.
6. In similar small temperate lakes, the negative effects of eutrophication on hypolimnetic DO are likely to be exacerbated by changes in lake thermal structure brought about by a warming climate, which may undermine management efforts to alleviate the effects of anthropogenic eutrophication.

Future Air Quality Related Health Effects in Europe and the Nordic Region—Sensitivity to Changes in Climate, Anthropogenic Emissions, Demography and Building Stock

Future changes in population exposures to ambient air pollution are inherently linked with long-term trends in outdoor air quality, but also with changes in the building stock. Moreover, the burden of disease is further driven by the ageing of the European populations. This study aims to assess the impact of changes in climate, emissions, building stocks and population on air pollution related human health impacts across Europe in the future. Therefore an integrated assessment model combining atmospheric models and health impacts has been setup for projections of the future developments in air pollution related premature mortality. The focus is here on the regional scale impacts of exposure to surface ozone (O3), Secondary Inorganic Aerosols (SIA) and primary particulate matter (PPM).

Male mutation bias and possible long-term effects of human activities.

The ability of a population to adapt to changing environments depends critically on the amount and kind of genetic variability it possesses. Mutations are an important source of new genetic variability and may lead to new adaptations, especially if the population size is large. Mutation rates are extremely variable between and within species, and males usually have higher mutation rates as a result of elevated rates of male germ cell division. This male bias affects the overall mutation rate. We examined the factors that influence male mutation bias, and focused on the effects of classical life-history parameters, such as the average age at reproduction and elevated rates of sperm production in response to sexual selection and sperm competition. We argue that human-induced changes in age at reproduction or in sexual selection will affect male mutation biases and hence overall mutation rates. Depending on the effective population size, these changes are likely to influence the long-term persistence of a population.

Improving the oral health status of functionally independent and dependent seniors residing in long-term care facilities through dental hygiene education /

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the oral health status of residents residing in 2 long-term care facilities and determine if dental hygiene education was required in order to improve their current oral health. The oral health status of 6 independent and 4 dependent individuals residing in 2 long-term care facilities was evaluated. In addition, the current oral health and disease prevention practices employed by 4 caregivers who were responsible for providing oral care to dependent residents in the long-term care facilities were evaluated. Furthermore, an evaluation of the oral care practices of independent residents who were responsible for providing their own care was conducted. Finally, the challenges that caregivers and independent residents faced when performing oral care were determined, and methodological changes were proposed. Using a generic qualitative research methodology, data collection was comprised of semi structured interviews, field observations, and documentation. The oral health status of the residents was reevaluated 3 months later. The findings of this study demonstrated an increase in plaque accumulation, gingival inflammation, and unhealthy gingival tissue colour changes among the residents over the 3-month period. The study revealed that poor oral health among the residents was a result of inadequate oral hygiene care techniques, difficulties accessing oral health care, financial limitations, insufficient care staff, insufficient time for personal care duties, lack of professional development, minimal interprofessional collaboration of health disciplines, and lack of perseverance on the part of the caregivers and residents. Overall, oral health is essential, and maintaining optimal oral health requires increased collaboration and communication between health care providers.

The role of molecular, clinical and socioeconomic factors in the long-term survival of axillary node negative breast cancer patients

The overall objective of this study was to investigate factors associated with long-term survival in axillary node negative (ANN) breast cancer patients. Clinical and biological factors included stage, histopathologic grade, p53 mutation, Her-2/neu amplification, estrogen receptor status (ER), progesterone receptor status (PR) and vascular invasion. Census derived socioeconomic (SES) indicators included median individual and household income, proportions of university educated individuals, housing type, "incidence" of low income and an indicator of living in an affluent neighbourhood. The effects of these measures on breast cancer-specific survival and competing cause survival were investigated. A cohort study examining survival among axillary node negative (ANN) breast cancer patients in the greater Toronto area commenced in 1 989. Patients were followed up until death, lost-to-follow up or study termination in 2004. Data were collected from several sources measuring patient demographics, clinical factors, treatment, recurrence of disease and survival. Census level SES data were collected using census geo-coding of patient addresses' at the time of diagnosis. Additional survival data were acquired from the Ontario Cancer Registry to enhance and extend the observation period of the study. Survival patterns were examined using KaplanMeier and life table procedures. Associations were examined using log-rank and Wilcoxon tests of univariate significance. Multivariate survival analyses were perfonned using Cox proportional hazards models. Analyses were stratified into less than and greater than 5 year survival periods to observe whether known markers of short-tenn survival were also associated with reductions in long-tenn survival among breast cancer patients. The 15 year survival probabilities in this cohort were: for breast cancerspecific survival 0.88, competing causes survival 0.89 and for overall survival 0.78. Estrogen receptor (ER) and progesterone receptor (PR) status (Hazard Ratio (HR) ERIPR- versus ER+/PR+, 8.15,95% CI, 4.74, 14.00), p53 mutation (HR, 3.88, 95% CI, 2.00, 7.53) and Her-2 amplification (HR, 2.66, 95% CI, 1.36, 5.19) were associated with significant reductions in short-tenn breast cancer-specific survival «5 years following diagnosis), however, not with long-term survival in univariate analyses. Stage, histopathologic grade and ERiPR status were the clinicallbiologieal factors that were associated with short-term breast cancer specific survival in multivariate results. Living in an affluent neighbourhood (top quintile of median household income compared to the rest of the population) was associated with the largest significant increase in long-tenn breast cancer-specific survival after adjustment for stage, histopathologic grade and treatment (HR, 0.36, 95% CI, 0.12, 0.89).

Long-term effects of sports concussion

Questions : Cette thèse visait à répondre à deux questions fondamentales : 1) Est-ce que les athlètes qui présentent un historique de commotions cérébrales du sport en conservent des effets délétères à long terme? ; et 2) Est-ce que les effets néfastes des commotions cérébrales récurrentes sur le fonctionnement tant cognitif que moteur sont cumulatifs? Devis expérimental : À l’aide d’un plan d’investigation double-cohorte réalisé avec un groupe d’athlètes évoluant au niveau universitaire et un autre formé d’anciens athlètes universitaires testés plus de trois décennies plus tard, les quatre études qui composent cette thèse ont employé des méthodes raffinées d’investigation des fonctions cognitives et motrices pour en déceler des atteintes persistantes. Méthodologie : Les potentiels évoqués cognitifs ainsi que les tests neuropsychologiques ont permis de sonder le fonctionnement cognitif de ces athlètes alors que la stimulation magnétique transcrânienne, une plateforme de force permettant de mesurer la stabilité posturale ainsi qu’un système d’enregistrement tridimensionnel des mouvements rapides alternatifs ont servi à l’évaluation de l’intégrité du système moteur. Résultats : Cette thèse a permis de déceler des altérations persistentes et cumulatives des fonctions cognitives et motrices. De plus, ces subtiles atteintes observées chez les jeunes athlètes, affectant essentiellement des marqueurs neurophysiologiques sous-cliniques du fonctionnement cognitif et moteur, s’étaient accentuées chez les anciens athlètes universitaires qui montraient un déclin quantifiable tant des fonctions cognitives que motrices. Discussion : Ces résultats suggèrent d’une part que les commotions cérébrales du sport entraînent des altérations cognitives et motrices chroniques qui s’accentuent en fonction du nombre de commotions cérébrales subies. D’autre part, les effets délétères des commotions cérébrales du sport sur le fonctionnement cognitif et moteur combinés à ceux associés au processus de vieillissement entraînent un déclin cognitif et moteur quantifiable en comparaison aux anciens athlètes n’ayant jamais subi de commotions cérébrales.

The effects of landscape modifications on the long-term persistence of animal populations

Background: The effects of landscape modifications on the long-term persistence of wild animal populations is of crucial importance to wildlife managers and conservation biologists, but obtaining experimental evidence using real landscapes is usually impossible. To circumvent this problem we used individual-based models (IBMs) of interacting animals in experimental modifications of a real Danish landscape. The models incorporate as much as possible of the behaviour and ecology of four species with contrasting life-history characteristics: skylark (Alauda arvensis), vole (Microtus agrestis), a ground beetle (Bembidion lampros) and a linyphiid spider (Erigone atra). This allows us to quantify the population implications of experimental modifications of landscape configuration and composition. Methodology/Principal Findings: Starting with a real agricultural landscape, we progressively reduced landscape complexity by (i) homogenizing habitat patch shapes, (ii) randomizing the locations of the patches, and (iii) randomizing the size of the patches. The first two steps increased landscape fragmentation. We assessed the effects of these manipulations on the long-term persistence of animal populations by measuring equilibrium population sizes and time to recovery after disturbance. Patch rearrangement and the presence of corridors had a large effect on the population dynamics of species whose local success depends on the surrounding terrain. Landscape modifications that reduced population sizes increased recovery times in the short-dispersing species, making small populations vulnerable to increasing disturbance. The species that were most strongly affected by large disturbances fluctuated little in population sizes in years when no perturbations took place. Significance: Traditional approaches to the management and conservation of populations use either classical methods of population analysis, which fail to adequately account for the spatial configurations of landscapes, or landscape ecology, which accounts for landscape structure but has difficulty predicting the dynamics of populations living in them. Here we show how realistic and replicable individual-based models can bridge the gap between non-spatial population theory and non-dynamic landscape ecology. A major strength of the approach is its ability to identify population vulnerabilities not detected by standard population viability analyses.

Case study part 2: probabilistic modelling of long-term effects of pesticides on individual breeding success in birds and mammals

Abstract: Long-term exposure of skylarks to a fictitious insecticide and of wood mice to a fictitious fungicide were modelled probabilistically in a Monte Carlo simulation. Within the same simulation the consequences of exposure to pesticides on reproductive success were modelled using the toxicity-exposure-linking rules developed by R.S. Bennet et al. (2005) and the interspecies extrapolation factors suggested by R. Luttik et al.(2005). We built models to reflect a range of scenarios and as a result were able to show how exposure to pesticide might alter the number of individuals engaged in any given phase of the breeding cycle at any given time and predict the numbers of new adults at the season’s end.

Long-term variations in the magnetic fields of the Sun and the heliosphere: their origin, effects, and implications

Recent studies of the variation of geomagnetic activity over the past 140 years have quantified the "coronal source" magnetic flux F-s that leaves the solar atmosphere and enters the heliosphere and have shown that it has risen, on average, by an estimated 34% since 1963 and by 140% since 1900. This variation of open solar flux has been reproduced by Solanki et al. [2000] using a model which demonstrates how the open flux accumulates and decays, depending on the rate of flux emergence in active regions and on the length of the solar cycle. We here use a new technique to evaluate solar cycle length and find that it does vary in association with the rate of change of F-s in the way predicted. The long-term variation of the rate of flux emergence is found to be very similar in form to that in F-s, which may offer a potential explanation of why F-s appears to be a useful proxy for extrapolating solar total irradiance back in time. We also find that most of the variation of cosmic ray fluxes incident on Earth is explained by the strength of the heliospheric field (quantified by F-s) and use observations of the abundance of the isotope Be-10 (produced by cosmic rays and deposited in ice sheets) to study the decrease in F-s during the Maunder minimum. The interior motions at the base of the convection zone, where the solar dynamo is probably located, have recently been revealed using the helioseismology technique and found to exhibit a 1.3-year oscillation. This periodicity is here reported in observations of the interplanetary magnetic field and geomagnetic activity but is only present after 1940, When present, it shows a strong 22-year variation, peaking near the maximum of even-numbered sunspot cycles and showing minima at the peaks of odd-numbered cycles. We discuss the implications of these long-term solar and heliospheric variations for Earth's environment.

Long-term changes to the frequency of occurrence of British moths are consistent with opposing and synergistic effects of climate and land-use changes

1. Species’ distributions are likely to be affected by a combination of environmental drivers. We used a data set of 11 million species occurrence records over the period 1970–2010 to assess changes in the frequency of occurrence of 673 macro-moth species in Great Britain. Groups of species with different predicted sensitivities showed divergent trends, which we interpret in the context of land-use and climatic changes. 2. A diversity of responses was revealed: 260 moth species declined significantly, whereas 160 increased significantly. Overall, frequencies of occurrence declined, mirroring trends in less species-rich, yet more intensively studied taxa. 3. Geographically widespread species, which were predicted to be more sensitive to land use than to climate change, declined significantly in southern Britain, where the cover of urban and arable land has increased. 4. Moths associated with low nitrogen and open environments (based on their larval host plant characteristics) declined most strongly, which is also consistent with a land-use change explanation. 5. Some moths that reach their northern (leading edge) range limit in southern Britain increased, whereas species restricted to northern Britain (trailing edge) declined significantly, consistent with a climate change explanation. 6. Not all species of a given type behaved similarly, suggesting that complex interactions between species’ attributes and different combinations of environmental drivers determine frequency of occurrence changes. 7. Synthesis and applications. Our findings are consistent with large-scale responses to climatic and land-use changes, with some species increasing and others decreasing. We suggest that land-use change (e.g. habitat loss, nitrogen deposition) and climate change are both major drivers of moth biodiversity change, acting independently and in combination. Importantly, the diverse responses revealed in this species-rich taxon show that multifaceted conservation strategies are needed to minimize negative biodiversity impacts of multiple environmental changes. We suggest that habitat protection, management and ecological restoration can mitigate combined impacts of land-use change and climate change by providing environments that are suitable for existing populations and also enable species to shift their ranges.

A Substrate Trapping Mutant Form of Striatal-Enriched Protein Tyrosine Phosphatase Prevents Amphetamine-Induced Stereotypies and Long-Term Potentiation in the Striatum

Background: Chronic, intermittent exposure to psychostimulant drugs results in striatal neuroadaptations leading to an increase in an array of behavioral responses on subsequent challenge days. A brain-specific striatal-enriched tyrosine phosphatase (STEP) regulates synaptic strengthening by dephosphorylating and inactivating several key synaptic proteins. This study tests the hypothesis that a substrate-trapping form of STEP will prevent the development of amphetamine-induced stereotypies. Methods: A substrate-trapping STEP protein, TAT-STEP (C-S), was infused into the ventrolateral striatum on each of 5 consecutive exposure days and I hour before amphetamine injection. Animals were challenged to see whether sensitization to the stereotypy-producing effects of amphetamine developed. The same TAT-STEP (C-S) protein was used on acute striatal slices to determine the impact on long-term potentiation and depression. Results: Infusion of TAT-STEP (C-S) blocks the increase of amphetamine-induced stereotypies when given during the 5-day period of sensitization. The TAT-STEP (C-S) has no effect if only infused on the challenge day. Treatment of acute striatal slices with TAT-STEP (C-S) blocks the induction of long-term potentiation and potentates long-term depression. Conclusions: A substrate trapping form of STEP blocks the induction of amphetamine-induced neuroplasticity within the ventrolateral striatum and supports the hypothesis that STEP functions as a tonic break on synaptic strengthening.