Virologic failure and second-line antiretroviral therapy in children in South Africa--the IeDEA Southern Africa collaboration

Background: With expanding pediatric antiretroviral therapy (ART) access, children will begin to experience treatment failure and require second-line therapy. We evaluated the probability and determinants of virologic failure and switching in children in South Africa. Methods: Pooled analysis of routine individual data from children who initiated ART in 7 South African treatment programs with 6-monthly viral load and CD4 monitoring produced Kaplan-Meier estimates of probability of virologic failure (2 consecutive unsuppressed viral loads with the second being >1000 copies/mL, after ≥24 weeks of therapy) and switch to second-line. Cox-proportional hazards models stratified by program were used to determine predictors of these outcomes. Results: The 3-year probability of virologic failure among 5485 children was 19.3% (95% confidence interval: 17.6 to 21.1). Use of nevirapine or ritonavir alone in the initial regimen (compared with efavirenz) and exposure to prevention of mother to child transmission regimens were independently associated with failure [adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence interval): 1.77 (1.11 to 2.83), 2.39 (1.57 to 3.64) and 1.40 (1.02 to 1.92), respectively]. Among 252 children with ≥1 year follow-up after failure, 38% were switched to second-line. Median (interquartile range) months between failure and switch was 5.7 (2.9-11.0). Conclusions: Triple ART based on nevirapine or ritonavir as a single protease inhibitor seems to be associated with a higher risk of virologic failure. A low proportion of virologically failing children were switched.

A sublimation technique for high-precision measurements of d13CO2 and mixing ratios of CO2 and N2O from air trapped in ice cores

In order to provide high precision stable carbon isotope ratios (δ13CO2 or δ13C of CO2) from small bubbly, partially and fully clathrated ice core samples we developed a new method based on sublimation coupled to gas chromatography-isotope ratio mass spectrometry (GC-IRMS). In a first step the trapped air is quantitatively released from ~30 g of ice and CO2 together with N2O are separated from the bulk air components and stored in a miniature glass tube. In an off-line step, the extracted sample is introduced into a helium carrier flow using a minimised tube cracker device. Prior to measurement, N2O and organic sample contaminants are gas chromatographically separated from CO2. Pulses of a CO2/N2O mixture are admitted to the tube cracker and follow the path of the sample through the system. This allows an identical treatment and comparison of sample and standard peaks. The ability of the method to reproduce δ13C from bubble and clathrate ice is verified on different ice cores. We achieve reproducibilities for bubble ice between 0.05 ‰ and 0.07 ‰ and for clathrate ice between 0.05 ‰ and 0.09 ‰ (dependent on the ice core used). A comparison of our data with measurements on bubble ice from the same ice core but using a mechanical extraction device shows no significant systematic offset. In addition to δ13C, the CO2 and N2O mixing ratios can be volumetrically derived with a precision of 2 ppmv and 8 ppbv, respectively.

Continuous measurements of methane mixing ratios from ice cores

This work presents a new, field-deployable technique for continuous, high-resolution measurements of methane mixing ratios from ice cores. The technique is based on a continuous flow analysis system, where ice core samples cut along the long axis of an ice core are melted continuously. The past atmospheric air contained in the ice is separated from the melt water stream via a system for continuous gas extraction. The extracted gas is dehumidified and then analyzed by a Wavelength Scanned-Cavity Ring Down Spectrometer for methane mixing ratios. We assess the performance of the new measurement technique in terms of precision (±0.8 ppbv, 1σ), accuracy (±8 ppbv), temporal (ca. 100 s), and spatial resolution (ca. 5 cm). Using a firn air transport model, we compare the resolution of the measurement technique to the resolution of the atmospheric methane signal as preserved in ice cores in Greenland. We conclude that our measurement technique can resolve all climatically relevant variations as preserved in the ice down to an ice depth of at least 1980 m (66 000 yr before present) in the North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling ice core. Furthermore, we describe the modifications, which are necessary to make a commercially available spectrometer suitable for continuous methane mixing ratio measurements from ice cores.

Switching to second-line antiretroviral therapy in resource-limited settings: comparison of programmes with and without viral load monitoring

BACKGROUND: In high-income countries, viral load is routinely measured to detect failure of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and guide switching to second-line ART. Viral load monitoring is not generally available in resource-limited settings. We examined switching from nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-based first-line regimens to protease inhibitor-based regimens in Africa, South America and Asia. DESIGN AND METHODS: Multicohort study of 17 ART programmes. All sites monitored CD4 cell count and had access to second-line ART and 10 sites monitored viral load. We compared times to switching, CD4 cell counts at switching and obtained adjusted hazard ratios for switching (aHRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) from random-effects Weibull models. RESULTS: A total of 20 113 patients, including 6369 (31.7%) patients from 10 programmes with access to viral load monitoring, were analysed; 576 patients (2.9%) switched. Low CD4 cell counts at ART initiation were associated with switching in all programmes. Median time to switching was 16.3 months [interquartile range (IQR) 10.1-26.6] in programmes with viral load monitoring and 21.8 months (IQR 14.0-21.8) in programmes without viral load monitoring (P < 0.001). Median CD4 cell counts at switching were 161 cells/microl (IQR 77-265) in programmes with viral load monitoring and 102 cells/microl (44-181) in programmes without viral load monitoring (P < 0.001). Switching was more common in programmes with viral load monitoring during months 7-18 after starting ART (aHR 1.38; 95% CI 0.97-1.98), similar during months 19-30 (aHR 0.97; 95% CI 0.58-1.60) and less common during months 31-42 (aHR 0.29; 95% CI 0.11-0.79). CONCLUSION: In resource-limited settings, switching to second-line regimens tends to occur earlier and at higher CD4 cell counts in ART programmes with viral load monitoring compared with programmes without viral load monitoring.

Recent skin self-examination and doctor visits in relation to melanoma risk and tumour depth

BACKGROUND Little is known about the potential benefit of skin self-examination for melanoma prevention and early detection. Objectives: To determine whether skin self-examination is associated with reduced melanoma risk, self-detection of tumours, and reduced risk of deeper melanomas. METHODS We used data from a population-based case-control study (423 cases, 678 controls) to assess recent skin self-examination in relation to self-detection, melanoma risk and tumour depth ( ≤1 mm; > 1 mm). Logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and confidence intervals (CIs) for associations of interest. RESULTS Skin self-examination conducted 1-11 times during a recent year was associated with a possible decrease in melanoma risk (OR 0·74; 95% CI 0·54-1·02). Melanoma risk was decreased for those who conducted skin self-examination and saw a doctor (OR 0·52; 95% CI 0·30-0·90). Among cases, those who examined their skin were twice as likely to self-detect the melanoma (OR 2·23; 95% CI 1·47-3·38), but self-detection was not associated with shallower tumours. Tumour depth was reduced for those who conducted skin self-examination 1-11 times during a recent year (OR 0·39; 95% CI 0·18-0·81), but was not influenced by seeing a doctor, or by conducting skin self-examination and seeing a doctor. CONCLUSIONS Risk of a deeper tumour and possibly risk of melanoma were reduced by skin self-examination 1-11 times annually. Melanoma risk was markedly reduced by skin self-examination coupled with a doctor visit. We cannot, however, exclude the possibility that our findings reflect bias or confounding. Additional studies are needed to elucidate the potential benefits of skin self-examination for melanoma prevention and early detection.

Geochemical synthesis for the Effingen Member in boreholes at Oftringen, Gösgen and Küttigen

The Effingen Member is a low-permeability rock unit of Oxfordian age (ca. 160 Ma) that occurs across northern Switzerland. It comprises sandy calcareous marls and (argillaceous) limestones. This report describes the hydrogeochemistry, mineralogy and supporting physical properties of the Effingen Member in three boreholes in the Jura-Südfuss area: Oftringen, Gösgen and Küttigen, where it is 220–240 m thick. The top of the Effingen Member is at 420, 66 and 32 m depths at the three sites. Core materials are available from Oftringen and Gösgen, whereas information from Küttigen is limited to cuttings, in-situ hydrogeological testing and geophysical logging. Hydrogeological boundaries of the Effingen Member vary between locations. Ground-water flows were identified during drilling at the top (Geissberg Member), but not at the base, of the Effingen Member at Oftringen, at the base (Hauptrogenstein Formation) of the Effingen Member at Gösgen, and in a limestone layer (Gerstenhübel unit) within the Effingen Member at Küttigen. The marls and limestones of the Effingen Member have carbonate contents of 46–91 wt.-% and clay-mineral contents of 5–37 wt.-%. Pyrite contents are up to 1.6 wt.-%, but no sulphate minerals were detected by routine analyses. Clay minerals are predominantly mixed-layer illite-smectite, illite and kaolinite, with sporadic traces of chlorite and smectite. Veins filled with calcite ± celestite occur through the Effingen Member at Oftringen but not at Gösgen or Küttigen. They formed at 50–70 ºC from externally derived fluids, probably of Miocene age. Water contents are 0.7–4.2 wt.-%, corresponding to a water-loss porosity range of 1.9–10.8 vol.-%. Specific surface areas, measured by the BET method, are 2–30 m2/g, correlating with clay-mineral contents. Water activity has been measured and yielded surprisingly low values down to 0.8. These cannot be explained by pore-water salinity alone and include other effects, such as changes in the fabric due to stress release or partial saturation. Observed variations in measurements are not fully understood. Cation exchange capacity (CEC) and exchangeable cation populations have been studied by the Ni-en method. CEC, derived from the consumption of the index cation Ni, is 9–99 meq/kgrock at a solid:liquid ratio of 1, correlating with the clay-mineral content. Cation concentrations in Ni-en extract solutions are in the order Na+≥Ca2+>Mg2+>K+>Sr2+. However, the analytical results from the Ni-en extractions have additional contributions from cations originating from pore water and from mineral dissolution reactions that occurred during extraction, and it was not possible to reliably quantify these contributions. Therefore, in-situ cation populations and selectivity coefficients could not be derived. A suite of methods have been used for characterising the chemical compositions of pore waters in the Effingen Member. Advective displacement was used on one sample from each Oftringen and Gösgen and is the only method that produces results that approach complete hydrochemical compositions. Aqueous extraction was used on core samples from these two boreholes and gives data only for Cl- and, in some cases, Br-. Out-diffusion was used on core samples from Oftringen and similarly gives data for Cl- and Br- only. For both aqueous extraction and out-diffusion, reaction of the experimental water with rock affected concentrations of cations, SO42 and alkalinity in experimental solutions. Another method, centrifugation, failed to extract pore water. Stable isotope ratios (δ18O and δ2H) of pore waters in core samples from Oftringen were analysed by the diffusive exchange method and helium contents of pore water in Oftringen samples were extracted for mass spectrometric analysis by quantitative outgassing of preserved core samples. Several lines of evidence indicate that drillcore samples might not have been fully saturated when opened and subsampled in the laboratory. These include comparisons of water-loss porosities with physical porosities, water-activity measurements, and high contents of dissolved gas as inferred from ground-water samples. There is no clear proof of partial saturation and it is unclear whether this might represent in-situ conditions or is due to exsolution of gas due to the pressure release since drilling. Partial saturation would have no impact on the recalculation of pore-water compositions from aqueous extraction experiments using water-loss porosity data. The largest uncertainty in the pore-water Cl- concentrations recalculated from aqueous extraction and out-diffusion experiments is the magnitude of the anion-accessible fraction of water-loss porosity. General experience of clay-mineral rich formations suggests that the anion-accessible porosity fraction is very often about 0.5 and generally in a range of 0.3 to 0.6 and tends to be inversely correlated with clay-mineral contents. Comparisons of the Cl- concentration in pore water obtained by advective displacement with that recalculated from aqueous extraction of an adjacent core sample suggests a fraction of 0.27 for an Oftringen sample, whereas the same procedure for a Gösgen sample suggests a value of 0.64. The former value for anion-accessible porosity fraction is presumed to be unrepresentative given the local mineralogical heterogeneity at that depth. Through-diffusion experiments with HTO and 36Cl- suggest that the anion-accessible porosity fraction in the Effingen Member at Oftringen and Gösgen is around 0.5. This value is proposed as a typical average for rocks of the Effingen Member, bearing in mind that it varies on a local scale in response to the heterogeneity of lithology and pore-space architecture. The substantial uncertainties associated with the approaches to estimating anion-accessible porosity propagate into the calculated values of in-situ pore-water Cl- concentrations. On the basis of aqueous extraction experiments, and using an anion-accessible porosity fraction of 0.5, Cl- concentrations in the Effingen Member at Oftringen reach a maximum of about 14 g/L in the centre. Cl- decreases upwards and downwards from that, forming a curved depth profile. Cl- contents in the Effingen Member at Gösgen increase with depth from about 3.5 g/L to about 14 g/L at the base of the cored profile (which corresponds to the centre of the formation). Out-diffusion experiments were carried out on four samples from Oftringen, distributed through the Effingen Member. Recalculated Cl- concentrations are similar to those from aqueous extraction for 3 out of the 4 samples, and somewhat lower for one sample. Concentrations of other components, i.e. Na+, K+, Ca2+, Mg2+, Sr2+, SO42- and HCO3- cannot be obtained from the aqueous extraction and out-diffusion experimental data because of mineral dissolution and cation exchange reactions during the experiments. Pore-water pH also is not constrained by those extraction experiments. The only experimental approach to obtain complete pore-water compositions for samples from Oftringen and Gösgen is advective displacement of pore water. The sample from Oftringen used for this experiment is from 445 m depth in the upper part of the Effingen Member and gave eluate with 16.5 g/L Cl- whereas aqueous extraction from a nearby sample indicated about 9 g/L Cl-. The sample from Gösgen used for advective displacement is from 123 m depth in the centre of the Effingen Member sequence and gave eluate with about 9 g/L Cl- whereas aqueous extraction gave 11.5 g/L Cl-. In both cases the pore waters have Na-(Ca)-Cl compositions and SO42- concentrations of about 1.1 g/L. The Gösgen sample has a Br/Cl ratio similar to that of sea water, whereas this ratio is lower for the Oftringen sample. Taking account of uncertainties in the applied experimental approaches, it is reasonable to place an upper limit of ca. 20 g/L on Cl- concentration for pore water in the Effingen Member in this area. There are major discrepancies between pore-water SO42- concentrations inferred from aqueous extraction or out-diffusion experiments and those obtained from advective displacement in both the Oftringen and Gösgen cases. A general conclusion is that all or at least part of the discrepancies are attributable to perturbation of the sulphur system and enhancement of SO42- by sulphate mineral dissolution and possibly minor pyrite oxidation during aqueous extraction and out-diffusion. Therefore, data for SO42- calculated from those pore-water sampling methods are considered not to be representative of in-situ conditions. A reference pore-water composition was defined for the Effingen Member in the Jura Südfuss area. It represents the probable upper limits of Cl- contents and corresponding anion and cation concentrations that are reasonably constrained by experimental data. Except for Cl- and possibly Na+ concentrations, this composition is poorly constrained especially with respect to SO42- and Ca2+ concentrations, and pH and alkalinity. Stable isotope compositions, δ18O and δ2H, of pore waters in the Effingen Member at Oftringen plot to the right of the meteoric water line, suggesting that 18O has been enriched by water-rock exchange, which indicates that the pore waters have a long residence time. A long residence time of pore water is supported by the level of dissolved 4He that has accumulated in pore water of the Effingen Member at Oftringen. This is comparable with, or slightly higher than, the amounts of 4He in the Opalinus Clay at Benken. Ground waters were sampled from flowing zones intersected by boreholes at the three locations. The general interpretation is that pore waters and ground-water solutes may have similar origins in Mesozoic and Cenozoic brackish-marine formations waters, but ground-water solutes have been diluted rather more than pore waters by ingress of Tertiary and Quaternary meteoric waters. The available hydrochemical data for pore waters from the Effingen Member at these three locations in the Jura-Südfuss area suggest that the geochemical system evolved slowly over geological periods of time, in which diffusion was an important mechanism of solute transport. The irregularity of Cl- and δ18O profiles and spatial variability of advective ground-water flows in the Malm-Dogger system suggests that palaeohydrogeological and hydrochemical responses to changing tectonic and surface environmental conditions were complex.

Dating groundwater in the Bohemian Cretaceous Basin: Understanding tracer variations in the subsurface

The northern section of the Bohemian Cretaceous Basin has been the site of intensive U exploitation with harmful impacts on groundwater quality. The understanding of groundwater flow and age distribution is crucial for the prediction of the future dispersion and impact of the contamination. State of the art tracer methods (3H, 3He, 4He, 85Kr, 39Ar and 14C) were, therefore, used to obtain insights to ageing and mixing processes of groundwater along a north–south flow line in the centre of the two most important aquifers of Cenomanian and middle Turonian age. Dating of groundwater is particularly complex in this area as: (i) groundwater in the Cenomanian aquifer is locally affected by fluxes of geogenic and biogenic gases (e.g. CO2, CH4, He) and by fossil brines in basement rocks rich in Cl and SO4; (ii) a thick unsaturated zone overlays the Turonian aquifer; (iii) a periglacial climate and permafrost conditions prevailed during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and iv) the wells are mostly screened over large depth intervals. Large disagreements in 85Kr and 3H/3He ages indicate that processes other than ageing have affected the tracer data in the Turonian aquifer. Mixing with older waters (>50 a) was confirmed by 39Ar activities. An inverse modelling approach, which included time lags for tracer transport throughout the unsaturated zone and degassing of 3He, was used to estimate the age of groundwater. Best fits between model and field results were obtained for mean residence times varying from modern up to a few hundred years. The presence of modern water in this aquifer is correlated with the occurrence of elevated pollution (e.g. nitrates). An increase of reactive geochemical indicators (e.g. Na) and radiogenic 4He, and a decrease in 14C along the flow direction confirmed groundwater ageing in the deeper confined Cenomanian aquifer. Radiocarbon ages varied from a few hundred years to more than 20 ka. Initial 14C activity for radiocarbon dating was calibrated by means of 39Ar measurements. The 14C age of a sample recharged during the LGM was further confirmed by depleted stable isotope signatures and near freezing point noble gas temperature. Radiogenic 4He accumulated in groundwater with concentrations increasing linearly with 14C ages. This enabled the use of 4He to validate the dating range of 14C and extend it to other parts of this aquifer. In the proximity of faults, 39Ar in excess of modern concentrations and 14C dead CO2 sources, elevated 3He/4He ratios and volcanic activity in Oligocene to Quaternary demonstrate the influence of gas of deeper origin and impeded the application of 4He, 39Ar and 14C for groundwater dating.

Stable-Isotope Time Series and Precipitation Origin from Firn-Core and Snow Samples, Altai Glaciers, Siberia

In the summers of 2001 and 2002, glacio-climatological research was performed at 4110-4120 m a.s.l. on the Belukha snow/firn plateau, Siberian Altai. Hundreds of samples from snow pits and a 21 m snow/firn core were collected to establish the annual/seasonal/monthly depth-accumulation scale, based on stable-isotope records, stratigraphic analyses and meteorological and synoptic data. The fluctuations of water stable-isotope records show well-preserved seasonal variations. The delta(18)O and delta D relationships in precipitation, snow pits and the snow/firn core have the same slope to the covariance as that of the global meteoric water line. The origins of precipitation nourishing the Belukha plateau were determined based on clustering analysis of delta(18)O and d-excess records and examination of synoptic atmospheric patterns. Calibration and validation of the developed clusters occurred at event and monthly timescales with about 15% uncertainty. Two distinct moisture sources were shown: oceanic sources with d-excess < 12 parts per thousand, and the Aral-Caspian closed drainage basin sources with d-excess > 12 parts per thousand. Two-thirds of the annual accumulation was from oceanic precipitation, of which more than half had isotopic ratios corresponding to moisture evaporated over the Atlantic Ocean. Precipitation from the Arctic/Pacific Ocean had the lowest deuterium excess, contributing one-tenth to annual accumulation.

Corneal cross-linking in keratoconus using the standard and rapid treatment protocol: differences in demarcation line and 12-month outcomes.

PURPOSE To compare the occurrence rate and depth of the demarcation line and topographical outcome after corneal cross-linking (CXL) for keratoconus using two different treatment protocols. METHODS A retrospective analysis of 131 eyes with progressive keratoconus treated with CXL using riboflavin and UV-A was performed. Eyes were treated either with the standard Dresden protocol (30 minutes irradiation, 3 mW/cm(2), UV-XTM 1000) or a rapid protocol (10 minutes irradiation, 9 mW/cm(2), UV-XTM 2000). The presence and depth of the corneal demarcation line was assessed with an anterior segment optical coherence tomography device 1 month after CXL by a masked observer. Corneal topography and tomography was performed at baseline and at 12-month follow-up with Pentacam and the TMS (Topographic Modeling System) device. RESULTS In the standard protocol group, 76.5% (62/81) of treated corneas revealed a demarcation line 1 month after CXL, whereas such a demarcation line was observed in only 22% (11/50) of eyes treated with the rapid protocol (P < 0.0001). The demarcation line was significantly more superficial in the rapid protocol group (P = 0.004). Corneal topography values between baseline and 12 months after CXL showed a mean change of -0.76 diopters (D) in Kmax (SD ± 2.7) in the standard protocol group versus a mean change of +0.72 D in Kmax (SD ± 1.5) in the rapid protocol (P = 0.007). CONCLUSIONS The rapid CXL protocol negatively influences the occurrence and depth of the demarcation line 1 month after CXL. Our results show a negative effect on the topographical outcome 1 year after CXL.

No shift to a deeper water uptake depth in response to summer drought of two lowland and sub-alpine C3-grasslands in Switzerland

Temperate C3-grasslands are of high agricultural and ecological importance in Central Europe. Plant growth and consequently grassland yields depend strongly on water supply during the growing season, which is projected to change in the future. We therefore investigated the effect of summer drought on the water uptake of an intensively managed lowland and an extensively managed sub-alpine grassland in Switzerland. Summer drought was simulated by using transparent shelters. Standing above- and belowground biomass was sampled during three growing seasons. Soil and plant xylem waters were analyzed for oxygen (and hydrogen) stable isotope ratios, and the depths of plant water uptake were estimated by two different approaches: (1) linear interpolation method and (2) Bayesian calibrated mixing model. Relative to the control, aboveground biomass was reduced under drought conditions. In contrast to our expectations, lowland grassland plants subjected to summer drought were more likely (43–68 %) to rely on water in the topsoil (0–10 cm), whereas control plants relied less on the topsoil (4–37 %) and shifted to deeper soil layers (20–35 cm) during the drought period (29–48 %). Sub-alpine grassland plants did not differ significantly in uptake depth between drought and control plots during the drought period. Both approaches yielded similar results and showed that the drought treatment in the two grasslands did not induce a shift to deeper uptake depths, but rather continued or shifted water uptake to even more shallower soil depths. These findings illustrate the importance of shallow soil depths for plant performance under drought conditions.

Monitoring and Switching of First-line Antiretroviral Therapy in sub-Saharan Africa: Collaborative Analysis of Adult Treatment Cohorts.

BACKGROUND HIV-1 viral load (VL) testing is recommended to monitor antiretroviral therapy (ART) but not universally available. We examined monitoring of first-line and switching to second-line ART in sub-Saharan Africa, 2004-2013. METHODS Adult HIV-1 infected patients starting combination ART in 16 countries were included. Switching was defined as a change from a non-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-based regimen to a protease inhibitor (PI)-based regimen, with a change of ≥1 NRTI. Virological and immunological failures were defined per World Health Organization criteria. We calculated cumulative probabilities of switching and hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals (CI) comparing routine VL monitoring, targeted VL monitoring, CD4 cell monitoring and clinical monitoring, adjusted for programme and individual characteristics. FINDINGS Of 297,825 eligible patients, 10,352 patients (3·5%) switched during 782,412 person-years of follow-up. Compared to CD4 monitoring hazard ratios for switching were 3·15 (95% CI 2·92-3·40) for routine VL, 1·21 (1·13-1·30) for targeted VL and 0·49 (0·43-0·56) for clinical monitoring. Overall 58.0% of patients with confirmed virological and 19·3% of patients with confirmed immunological failure switched within 2 years. Among patients who switched the percentage with evidence of treatment failure based on a single CD4 or VL measurement ranged from 32·1% with clinical to 84.3% with targeted VL monitoring. Median CD4 counts at switching were 215 cells/µl under routine VL monitoring but lower with other monitoring (114-133 cells/µl). INTERPRETATION Overall few patients switched to second-line ART and switching occurred late in the absence of routine viral load monitoring. Switching was more common and occurred earlier with targeted or routine viral load testing.

Addition of docetaxel, zoledronic acid, or both to first-line long-term hormone therapy in prostate cancer (STAMPEDE): survival results from an adaptive, multiarm, multistage, platform randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND Long-term hormone therapy has been the standard of care for advanced prostate cancer since the 1940s. STAMPEDE is a randomised controlled trial using a multiarm, multistage platform design. It recruits men with high-risk, locally advanced, metastatic or recurrent prostate cancer who are starting first-line long-term hormone therapy. We report primary survival results for three research comparisons testing the addition of zoledronic acid, docetaxel, or their combination to standard of care versus standard of care alone. METHODS Standard of care was hormone therapy for at least 2 years; radiotherapy was encouraged for men with N0M0 disease to November, 2011, then mandated; radiotherapy was optional for men with node-positive non-metastatic (N+M0) disease. Stratified randomisation (via minimisation) allocated men 2:1:1:1 to standard of care only (SOC-only; control), standard of care plus zoledronic acid (SOC + ZA), standard of care plus docetaxel (SOC + Doc), or standard of care with both zoledronic acid and docetaxel (SOC + ZA + Doc). Zoledronic acid (4 mg) was given for six 3-weekly cycles, then 4-weekly until 2 years, and docetaxel (75 mg/m(2)) for six 3-weekly cycles with prednisolone 10 mg daily. There was no blinding to treatment allocation. The primary outcome measure was overall survival. Pairwise comparisons of research versus control had 90% power at 2·5% one-sided α for hazard ratio (HR) 0·75, requiring roughly 400 control arm deaths. Statistical analyses were undertaken with standard log-rank-type methods for time-to-event data, with hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs derived from adjusted Cox models. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT00268476) and ControlledTrials.com (ISRCTN78818544). FINDINGS 2962 men were randomly assigned to four groups between Oct 5, 2005, and March 31, 2013. Median age was 65 years (IQR 60-71). 1817 (61%) men had M+ disease, 448 (15%) had N+/X M0, and 697 (24%) had N0M0. 165 (6%) men were previously treated with local therapy, and median prostate-specific antigen was 65 ng/mL (IQR 23-184). Median follow-up was 43 months (IQR 30-60). There were 415 deaths in the control group (347 [84%] prostate cancer). Median overall survival was 71 months (IQR 32 to not reached) for SOC-only, not reached (32 to not reached) for SOC + ZA (HR 0·94, 95% CI 0·79-1·11; p=0·450), 81 months (41 to not reached) for SOC + Doc (0·78, 0·66-0·93; p=0·006), and 76 months (39 to not reached) for SOC + ZA + Doc (0·82, 0·69-0·97; p=0·022). There was no evidence of heterogeneity in treatment effect (for any of the treatments) across prespecified subsets. Grade 3-5 adverse events were reported for 399 (32%) patients receiving SOC, 197 (32%) receiving SOC + ZA, 288 (52%) receiving SOC + Doc, and 269 (52%) receiving SOC + ZA + Doc. INTERPRETATION Zoledronic acid showed no evidence of survival improvement and should not be part of standard of care for this population. Docetaxel chemotherapy, given at the time of long-term hormone therapy initiation, showed evidence of improved survival accompanied by an increase in adverse events. Docetaxel treatment should become part of standard of care for adequately fit men commencing long-term hormone therapy. FUNDING Cancer Research UK, Medical Research Council, Novartis, Sanofi-Aventis, Pfizer, Janssen, Astellas, NIHR Clinical Research Network, Swiss Group for Clinical Cancer Research.

Design, Calibration, and Evaluation of Depth-of-Interaction-Capable PET Detector Modules

High-resolution, small-bore PET systems suffer from a tradeoff between system sensitivity, and image quality degradation. In these systems long crystals allow mispositioning of the line of response due to parallax error and this mispositioning causes resolution blurring, but long crystals are necessary for high system sensitivity. One means to allow long crystals without introducing parallax errors is to determine the depth of interaction (DOI) of the gamma ray interaction within the detector module. While DOI has been investigated previously, newly available solid state photomultipliers (SSPMs) well-suited to PET applications and allow new modules for investigation. Depth of interaction in full modules is a relatively new field, and so even if high performance DOI capable modules were available, the appropriate means to characterize and calibrate the modules are not. This work presents an investigation of DOI capable arrays and techniques for characterizing and calibrating those modules. The methods introduced here accurately and reliably characterize and calibrate energy, timing, and event interaction positioning. Additionally presented is a characterization of the spatial resolution of DOI capable modules and a measurement of DOI effects for different angles between detector modules. These arrays have been built into a prototype PET system that delivers better than 2.0 mm resolution with a single-sided-stopping-power in excess of 95% for 511 keV g's. The noise properties of SSPMs scale with the active area of the detector face, and so the best signal-to-noise ratio is possible with parallel readout of each SSPM photodetector pixel rather than multiplexing signals together. This work additionally investigates several algorithms for improving timing performance using timing information from multiple SSPM pixels when light is distributed among several photodetectors.

Molar gas ratios and stable oxygen and nitrogen isotopes of air entrapped in ice, North America

The molar ratios of atmospheric gases change during dissolution in water due to differences in their relative solubilities. We exploited this characteristic to develop a tool to clarify the origin of ice formations in permafrost regions. Extracted from ice, molar gas ratios can distinguish buried glacier ice from intrasedimental ground ice formed by freezing groundwaters. An extraction line was built to isolate gases from ice by melting and trapping with liquid He, followed by analysis of N2, O2, Ar, 18O-O2 and 15N-N2, by continuous flow mass spectrometry. The method was tested using glacier ice, aufeis ice (river icing) and intrasedimental ground ice from sites in the Canadian Arctic. O2/Ar and N2/Ar ratios clearly distinguish between atmospheric gas in glacial ice and gases from intrasedimental ground ice, which are exsolved from freezing water. 615NN2 and 618OO2 in glacier ice, aufeis ice and intrasedimental ground ice do not show clear distinguishing trends as they are affected by various physical processes during formation such as gravitational settling, excess air addition, mixing with snow pack, and respiration.

Planktonic foraminiferal biostratigraphy and stable carbon isotope ratios of late middle Eocene sediments from Blake Plateau, West Atlantic Ocean

The muricate planktonic foraminiferal genera Morozovella and Acarinina were abundant and diverse during the upper Palaeocene to middle Eocene and dominated the tropical and subtropical assemblages. A significant biotic turnover in planktonic foraminifera occurred in the latest middle Eocene with a notable reduction in the acarininid lineage and the extinction of the morozovellids. These genera are extensively employed as palaeoclimatic and biostratigraphic markers and, therefore, this turnover episode is an important event in the record of the Cenozoic planktonic foraminifera. Sediments from the western North Atlantic (Ocean Drilling Program Site 1052) were examined in order to investigate these extinction events, in terms of both timing and mechanisms. Biostratigraphic events of the middle and late Eocene have been examined with a sampling resoluti on of approximately 3 kyr. These have been calibrated to the magneto- and astrochronology to accurately define the timing of key biostratigraphic events, particularly the extinction of Morozovella spinulosa which is a distinct biomarker for late middle Eocene sediments. High-resolution biostratigraphy reveals that the extinctions in the muricate group occurred in a stepwise form. The large acarininids (Acarinina praetopilensis) terminate 10 kyr prior to the extinction of M. spinulosa and small acarininids (Acarinina medizzai and Acarinina echinata) continue into the upper Eocene. High-resolution stable isotope analyses have been conducted on planktonic and benthic foraminifera from the western North Atlantic to reconstruct sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and deep water temperatures and the structure of the water column around this major biotic turnover. Whilst the extinctions of M. spinulosa and A. praetopilensis occur during a long-term cooling trend, the biotic turnover in the muricate group does not appear to be related to significant climatic change. Sea surface temperatures decrease slowly prior to the extinction events, and there is no evidence for a large-temperature shift associated with the faunal changes. The turnover event was therefore probably related to the increased surface water productivity and the deterioration of photosymbiotic partnerships with algae.