Estimación de biomasa forestal mediante el uso de imágenes radar.

La importancia de la Biomasa a nivel mundial, ha llevado a que más de 130 países celebren el protocolo de Kioto sobre el cambio climático dictaminando como objetivo la reducción de las emisiones de seis gases de efecto invernadero y tres gases industriales fluorados, así como la incorporación de la fijación del CO2 como un objetivo dentro de los criterios de gestión de bosques. Entre las metodologías no destructivas para estimación de biomasa, aquí desarrolladas se describen tres técnicas que varios autores han propuesto para calcular los valores de biomasa y carbono, tal como el uso de ecuaciones alométricas por medio de la medición de variables dasométricas como el DAP, la aplicación de la teoría de huecos (v.g. DHP, TRAC), y la obtención de biomasa mediante información radar. Las imágenes radar proporcionan una clara ventaja al poder ser adquiridas en cualquier momento del día e independientemente de las condiciones climatológicas. Se han adquirido dos imágenes de sensores diferentes, tal como ALOSPALSAR que trabaja en la banda L y RADARSAT-2 que trabaja en la banda C, se aplica la metodología descrita por Saatchi et al. (2007), desarrollando los algoritmos semiempíricos propuestos para la estimación de biomasa del fuste (Ws) y biomasa de la copa (Wc), obteniendo los coeficientes a partir de información adquirida en campo. ABSTRACT The importance of biomass worldwide has led to more than 130 countries to celebrate the Kyoto Protocol, aimed at reducing emissions of six greenhouse gases and three fluorinated industrial gases, and the incorporation of the fixation of CO2 as an objective within forest management criteria. Among the non-destructive methods for estimating biomass, three techniques were developed. These have been described by some authors, as the use of allometric equations by measuring forest variables such as the DAP, the application of the Gap Theory (e.g. DHP, TRAC), as well as deriving biomass by radar information. The radar images provide a clear advantage since they can be gathered at any time of the day regardless of the weather conditions. For this purpose, two radar products have acquired from different sensors, such as ALOSPALSAR operating on L frequency band and RADARSAT-2 operating on C frequency band. The methodology applied in this work is described in Saatchi et al. (2007), that develop semiempirical algorithms for estimating stem biomass (Ws) and crown biomass (Wc). The corresponding coefficients are determined by means of regression procedures using field information derived from allometric and radiation measurements.

Aportación de técnicas geoespaciales para la determinación de los niveles de referencia de la deforestación y la degradación de bosques en el ámbito de proyectos REDD. análisis de factores de causalidad subyacentes y directos

La pérdida de bosques en la Tierra, principalmente en ecosistemas amazónicos, es un factor clave en el proceso del cambio climático. Para revertir esta situación, los mecanismos REDD (Reducing Emission from Deforestation and forest Degradation) están permitiendo la implementación de actividades de protección del clima a través de la reducción de emisiones por deforestación evitada, según los esquemas previstos en el Protocolo de Kioto. El factor técnico más crítico en un proyecto REDD es la determinación de la línea de referencia de emisiones, que define la expectativa futura sobre las emisiones de CO2 de origen forestal en ausencia de esfuerzos adicionales obtenidos como consecuencia de la implementación del programa REDD para frenar este tipo de emisiones. La zona del estudio se ubica en la región de San Martín (Perú), provincia cubierta fundamentalmente por bosques tropicales cuyas tasas de deforestación son de las más altas de la cuenca amazónica. En las últimas décadas del siglo XX, la región empezó un acelerado proceso de deforestación consecuencia de la integración vial con el resto del país y la rápida inmigración desde zonas rurales en busca de nuevas tierras agrícolas. Desde el punto de vista de la investigación llevada a cabo en la tesis doctoral, se pueden destacar dos líneas: 1. El estudio multitemporal mediante imágenes de satélite Landsat 5/TM con el propósito de calcular las pérdidas de bosque entre períodos. El estudio multitemporal se llevó a cabo en el período 1998-2011 utilizando imágenes Landsat 5/TM, aplicando la metodología de Análisis de Mezclas Espectrales (Spectral Mixtures Analysis), que permite descomponer la reflectancia de cada píxel de la imagen en diferentes fracciones de mezcla espectral. En este proceso, las etapas más críticas son el establecimiento de los espectros puros o endemembers y la recopilación de librerías espectrales adecuadas, en este caso de bosques tropicales, que permitan reducir la incertidumbre de los procesos. Como resultado de la investigación se ha conseguido elaborar la línea de referencia de emisiones histórica, para el período de estudio, teniendo en cuenta tanto los procesos de deforestación como de degradación forestal. 2. Relacionar los resultados de pérdida de bosque con factores de causalidad directos e indirectos. La determinación de los procesos de cambio de cobertura forestal utilizando técnicas geoespaciales permite relacionar, de manera significativa, información de los indicadores causales de dichos procesos. De igual manera, se pueden estimar escenarios futuros de deforestación y degradación de acuerdo al análisis de la evolución de dichos vectores, teniendo en cuenta otros factores indirectos o subyacentes, como pueden ser los económicos, sociales, demográficos y medioambientales. La identificación de los agentes subyacentes o indirectos es una tarea más compleja que la de los factores endógenos o directos. Por un lado, las relaciones causa – efecto son mucho más difusas; y, por otro, los efectos pueden estar determinados por fenómenos más amplios, consecuencia de superposición o acumulación de diferentes causas. A partir de los resultados de pérdida de bosque obtenidos mediante la utilización de imágenes Landsat 5/TM, se investigaron los criterios de condicionamiento directos e indirectos que podrían haber influido en la deforestación y degradación forestal en ese período. Para ello, se estudiaron las series temporales, para las mismas fechas, de 9 factores directos (infraestructuras, hidrografía, temperatura, etc.) y 196 factores indirectos (económicos, sociales, demográficos y ambientales, etc.) con, en principio, un alto potencial de causalidad. Finalmente se ha analizado la predisposición de cada factor con la ocurrencia de deforestación y degradación forestal por correlación estadística de las series temporales obtenidas. ABSTRACT Forests loss on Earth, mainly in Amazonian ecosystems, is a key factor in the process of climate change. To reverse this situation, the REDD (Reducing Emission from Deforestation and forest Degradation) are allowing the implementation of climate protection activities through reducing emissions from avoided deforestation, according to the schemes under the Kyoto Protocol. Also, the baseline emissions in a REDD project defines a future expectation on CO2 emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in the absence of additional efforts as a result of REDD in order to stop these emissions. The study area is located in the region of San Martín (Peru), province mainly covered by tropical forests whose deforestation rates are the highest in the Amazon basin. In the last decades of the twentieth century, the region began an accelerated process of deforestation due to road integration with the rest of the country and the rapid migration from rural areas for searching of new farmland. From the point of view of research in the thesis, we can highlight two lines: 1. The multitemporal study using Landsat 5/TM satellite images in order to calculate the forest loss between periods. The multitemporal study was developed in the period 1998-2011 using Landsat 5/TM, applying the methodology of Spectral Mixture Analysis, which allows decomposing the reflectance of each pixel of the image in different fractions of mixture spectral. In this process, the most critical step is the establishment of pure spectra or endemembers spectra, and the collecting of appropriate spectral libraries, in this case of tropical forests, to reduce the uncertainty of the process. As a result of research has succeeded in developing the baseline emissions for the period of study, taking into account both deforestation and forest degradation. 2. Relate the results of forest loss with direct and indirect causation factors. Determining the processes of change in forest cover using geospatial technologies allows relating, significantly, information of the causal indicators in these processes. Similarly, future deforestation and forest degradation scenarios can be estimated according to the analysis of the evolution of these drivers, taking into account other indirect or underlying factors, such as economic, social, demographic and environmental. Identifying the underlying or indirect agents is more complex than endogenous or direct factors. On the one hand, cause - effect relationships are much more diffuse; and, second, the effects may be determined by broader phenomena, due to superposition or accumulation of different causes. From the results of forest loss obtained using Landsat 5/TM, the criteria of direct and indirect conditioning that might have contributed to deforestation and forest degradation in that period were investigated. For this purpose, temporal series, for the same dates, 9 direct factors (infrastructure, hydrography, temperature, etc.) and 196 underlying factors (economic, social, demographic and environmental) with, in principle, a high potential of causality. Finally it was analyzed the predisposition of each factor to the occurrence of deforestation and forest degradation by statistical correlation of the obtained temporal series.

Análisis de Mezclas Espectrales para el estudio de la deforestación y establecimiento de la línea de referencia de emisiones en el marco del programa REDD. Aplicación a la región de San Martín, Perú.

La determinación de la línea histórica de deforestación como parte del establecimiento de la línea de referencia de emisiones, en el marco del programa REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation), permite medir la evolución de la pérdida de bosque en un periodo definido de tiempo. El objetivo fue calcular la línea histórica de deforestación mediante estudio multitemporal para el periodo 1998-2011, en la región de San Martín (Perú), utilizando la metodología de Análisis de Mezclas Espectrales (Spectral Mixtures Analysis) con imágenes Landsat 5-TM. Palabras clave: teledetección, Landsat 5-TM, análisis de mezclas espectrales, REDD, Protocolo de Kioto, deforestación, Amazonía, SMA Spectral Mixture Analysis for the study of deforestation and establishing reference emissions level within the REDD Program framework. Application to the region of San Martin, Peru. Abstract: Determination of the historical baseline of deforestation as part of establishing the reference emissions level within the REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) Program framework allows for the measurement of the evolution of forest loss over a defined period time. The objective was to estimate the historical baseline of deforestation through a multi-temporal study for the period 1998-2011, in the region of San Martin (Peru), using the methodology of Spectral Mixture Analysis (Mixtures Spectral Analysis) from Landsat 5-TM imagery. Keywords: remote sensing, Landsat 5-TM, spectral mixtures analysis, REDD, Kyoto Protocol, deforestation, Amazon, SMA

The Role of Market Mechanisms in a Post-2020 Climate Change Agreement. CEPS Special Report No. 87/May 2014

This special report is intended to serve as a background briefing document for the European Climate Platform seminar on Carbon Markets in the 2015 Agreement: Role and Architecture, but also raises issues of more enduring relevance in the wider debate about market mechanisms and the next climate change agreement. The paper looks at the relationship between the carbon market and a new climate change agreement, to be finalised in Paris in 2015. It tries to answer two key questions: does the carbon market have a role to play in a post-2020 agreement, and what is the role of a post-2020 agreement in the creation and operation of a carbon market? Introduction. The world has changed in many ways since 1997 when the Kyoto Protocol was adopted, along some critical axes, both from an economic and emissions points of view. Moreover, and this cannot be quantified, the appetite for global governance, especially for an agreement with such far-reaching implications as a climate change agreement, has diminished considerably. This paper looks at the relationship between the carbon market and a new climate change agreement, to be finalised in Paris in 2015. It tries to answer two key questions: does the carbon market have a role to play in a post-2020 agreement, and what is the role of a post-2020 agreement in the creation and operation of a carbon market?

Adapting to climate change from a regional perspective: in search of a requisite policy and legal framework. Jean Monnet Occasional Paper No. 8/2014

This paper aims to identify the Mediterranean States’ potential in adopting a regional strategy on climate change adaptation. The author proposes a Mediterranean Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change as the first step to a political/legal regional approach to climate change issues that would supplement the multilateral process under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol. According to the author such a strategy would enhance cooperation between the EU and other Mediterranean states in various ways. The experience of the EU in regulating climate change and its ever growing knowledge-base on its impacts could serve to guide the other Mediterranean states’ and help bridge their knowledge-base gap on the topic. On the other hand, the support and cooperation of the EU’s Mediterranean partners would provide an opportunity for the EU to address better the challenges the climate change threatens to bring in its southernmost regions. The strategy could eventually even pave the way for the very first regional treaty on climate change that could be negotiated under the auspices of the Regional Seas Programme and the Union for the Mediterranean.

The US-China Joint Announcement on Climate Change: Can the G2 make a difference? CEPS Commentary, 26 November 2014

This Commentary finds that the US-China joint declaration on climate change, issued following the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit in Beijing on November 12th, is undoubtedly an important announcement by the two global economic giants responsible for emitting over 30% of the world’s GHG emissions. As such, it needs to be seen as important and relevant – a very positive development towards a new global climate change agreement in Paris. It is a challenge to those that have announced their pledges and are seen as capable of doing more, as well as to those that have not yet announced their intentions. It shows the importance and success of the UN climate change conference in Warsaw last year, when the decision was made that all Parties should announce their commitments by the first quarter of 2015. It also represents a total breakdown of the Kyoto Protocol-style separation in climate change negotiations between countries into Annex 1 and non-Annex 1, with China signalling that it is taking on the leadership role that comes with being a great economic power. In broader terms, it shows that there is scope for cooperation between the two main economic actors, even in the face of competition in other spheres. It is also a challenge to the EU, which was a leader and needs to show that there is a benefit in maintaining its leadership. Finally, agreements are deemed historic only by history. This one is important, and a potential game-changer, on the face of it. But it needs to live up to its promise. There is sufficient uncertainty for us to withhold final judgement and see if its promise materialises through implementation. But, as sober a judgement as we must make on such important matters, this announcement certainly gives us great hope that it is possible to do what needs to be done, and we must wholeheartedly welcome and applaud it.

Carbon Market Opportunities in Southern Mediterranean Countries. MEDPRO Technical Report No. 8/March 2012

To date, Southern Mediterranean countries have hosted a limited number of projects under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). There are three challenges to the participation of middleincome countries in future carbon markets: the limited size of future demand for offsets or credits; restrictions on the use of CDM credits in Phase III of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme; and the lack of prompt preparation for the start of new market-based mechanisms. This study examines existing and emerging activities in Southern Mediterranean countries that could fit into new market based mechanisms. It explores options for the evolution of mechanisms and discusses the merits of post-2012 carbon funds in bridging the gap between the end of the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol and the entry into force of a new international agreement.

Modern environmental improvement pathways for the coal power generation industry in Australia

In this work we assess the pathways for environmental improvement by the coal utilization industry for power generation in Australia. In terms of resources, our findings show that coal is a long term resource of concern as coal reserves are likely to last for the next 500 years or more. However, our analysis indicates that evaporation losses of water in power generation will approach 1000 Gl (gigalitres) per year, equivalent to a consumption of half of the Australian residential population. As Australia is the second driest continent on earth, water consumption by power generators is a resource of immediate concern with regards to sustainability. We also show that coal will continue to play a major role in energy generation in Australia and, hence, there is a need to employ new technologies that can minimize environmental impacts. The major technologies to reduce impacts to air, water and soils are addressed. Of major interest, there is a major potential for developing sequestration processes in Australia, in particular by enhanced coal bed methane (ECBM) recovery at the Bowen Basin, South Sydney Basin and Gunnedah Basin. Having said that, CO2 capture technologies require further development to support any sequestration processes in order to comply with the Kyoto Protocol. Current power generation cycles are thermodynamic limited, with 35-40% efficiencies. To move to a high efficiency cycle, it is required to change technologies of which integrated gasification combined cycle plus fuel cell is the most promising, with efficiencies expected to reach 60-65%. However, risks of moving towards an unproven technology means that power generators are likely to continue to use pulverized fuel technologies, aiming at incremental efficiency improvements (business as usual). As a big picture pathway, power generators are likely to play an increasing role in regional development; in particular EcoParks and reclaiming saline water for treatment as pressures to access fresh water supplies will significantly increase.

Developing a forest data portal to support multi-scale decision making

Forests play a pivotal role in timber production, maintenance and development of biodiversity and in carbon sequestration and storage in the context of the Kyoto Protocol. Policy makers and forest experts therefore require reliable information on forest extent, type and change for management, planning and modeling purposes. It is becoming increasingly clear that such forest information is frequently inconsistent and unharmonised between countries and continents. This research paper presents a forest information portal that has been developed in line with the GEOSS and INSPIRE frameworks. The web portal provides access to forest resources data at a variety of spatial scales, from global through to regional and local, as well as providing analytical capabilities for monitoring and validating forest change. The system also allows for the utilisation of forest data and processing services within other thematic areas. The web portal has been developed using open standards to facilitate accessibility, interoperability and data transfer.

Essays on emissions trading markets

This dissertation is a collection of three economics essays on different aspects of carbon emission trading markets. The first essay analyzes the dynamic optimal emission control strategies of two nations. With a potential to become the largest buyer under the Kyoto Protocol, the US is assumed to be a monopsony, whereas with a large number of tradable permits on hand Russia is assumed to be a monopoly. Optimal costs of emission control programs are estimated for both the countries under four different market scenarios: non-cooperative no trade, US monopsony, Russia monopoly, and cooperative trading. The US monopsony scenario is found to be the most Pareto cost efficient. The Pareto efficient outcome, however, would require the US to make side payments to Russia, which will even out the differences in the cost savings from cooperative behavior. The second essay analyzes the price dynamics of the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX), a voluntary emissions trading market. By examining the volatility in market returns using AR-GARCH and Markov switching models, the study associates the market price fluctuations with two different political regimes of the US government. Further, the study also identifies a high volatility in the returns few months before the market collapse. Three possible regulatory and market-based forces are identified as probable causes of market volatility and its ultimate collapse. Organizers of other voluntary markets in the US and worldwide may closely watch for these regime switching forces in order to overcome emission market crashes. The third essay compares excess skewness and kurtosis in carbon prices between CCX and EU ETS (European Union Emission Trading Scheme) Phase I and II markets, by examining the tail behavior when market expectations exceed the threshold level. Dynamic extreme value theory is used to find out the mean price exceedence of the threshold levels and estimate the risk loss. The calculated risk measures suggest that CCX and EU ETS Phase I are extremely immature markets for a risk investor, whereas EU ETS Phase II is a more stable market that could develop as a mature carbon market in future years.

Identificação das políticas de incentivo ao desenvolvimento da energia eólica no Rio Grande do Norte (RN)

Energy is a vital resource for social and economic development. In the present scenario, the search for alternative energy sources has become fundamental, especially after the oil crises between 1973 and 1979, the Chernobyl nuclear accident in 1986 and the Kyoto Protocol in 1997. The demand for the development of new alternative energy sources aims to complement existing forms allows to meet the demand for energy consumption with greater security. Brazil, with the guideline of not dirtying the energy matrix by the fossil fuels exploitation and the recent energy crisis caused by the lack of rains, directs energy policies for the development of other renewable energy sources, complementing the hydric. This country is one of the countries that stand out for power generation capacity from the winds in several areas, especially Rio Grande do Norte (RN), which is one of the states with highest installed power and great potential to be explored. In this context arises the purpose of this work to identify the incentive to develop policies of wind energy in Rio Grande do Norte. The study was conducted by a qualitative methodology of data analysis called content analysis, oriented for towards message characteristics, its informational value, the words, arguments and ideas expressed in it, constituting a thematic analysis. To collect the data interviews were conducted with managers of major organizations related to wind energy in Brazil and in the state of Rio Grande do Norte. The identification of incentive policies was achieved in three stages: the first seeking incentives policies in national terms, which are applied to all states, the second with the questionnaire application and the third to research and data collection for the development of the installed power of the RN as compared to other states. At the end, the results demonstrated hat in Rio Grande do Norte state there is no incentive policy for the development of wind power set and consolidated, specific actions in order to optimize the bureaucratic issues related to wind farms, especially on environmental issues. The absence of this policy hinders the development of wind energy RN, considering result in reduced competitiveness and performance in recent energy auctions. Among the perceived obstacles include the lack of hand labor sufficient to achieve the reporting and analysis of environmental licenses, the lack of updating the wind Atlas of the state, a shortfall of tax incentives. Added to these difficulties excel barriers in infrastructure and logistics, with the lack of a suitable port for large loads and the need for reform, maintenance and duplication of roads and highways that are still loss-making. It is suggested as future work the relationship of the technology park of energy and the development of wind power in the state, the influence of the technology park to attract businesses and industries in the wind sector to settle in RN and a comparison of incentive policies to development of wind energy in the Brazilian states observing wind development in the same states under study.

Avaliação ecológico-econômica do manguezal de Macau/RN e a importância da aplicação de práticas preservacionistas pela indústria petrolífera local

This work presents the results of a survey in oil-producing region of the Macau City, northern coast of Rio Grande do Norte. All work was performed under the Project for Monitoring Environmental Change and the Influence of Hydrodynamic forcing on Morphology Beach Grass Fields, Serra Potiguar in Macau, with the support of the Laboratory of Geoprocessing, linked to PRH22 - Training Program in Geology Geophysics and Information Technology Oil and Gas - Department of Geology/CCET/UFRN and the Post-Graduation in Science and Engineering Oil/PPGCEP/UFRN. Within the economic-ecological context, this paper assesses the importance of mangrove ecosystem in the region of Macau and its surroundings as well as in the following investigative exploration of potential areas for projects involving reforestation and / or Environmental Restoration. At first it was confirmed the ecological potential of mangrove forests, with primary functions: (i) protection and stabilization of the shoreline, (ii) nursery of marine life, and (iii) source of organic matter to aquatic ecosystems, (iv) refuge of species, among others. In the second phase, using Landsat imagery and techniques of Digital Image Processing (DIP), I came across about 18,000 acres of land that can be worked on environmental projects, being inserted in the rules signed the Kyoto Protocol to the market carbon. The results also revealed a total area of 14,723.75 hectares of activity of shrimp production and salting that can be harnessed for the social, economic and environmental potential of the region, considering that over 60% of this area, ie, 8,800 acres, may be used in the planting of the genus Avicennia considered by the literature that the species best sequesters atmospheric carbon, reaching a mean value of 59.79 tons / ha of mangrove

Essays on Emissions Trading Markets

This dissertation is a collection of three economics essays on different aspects of carbon emission trading markets. The first essay analyzes the dynamic optimal emission control strategies of two nations. With a potential to become the largest buyer under the Kyoto Protocol, the US is assumed to be a monopsony, whereas with a large number of tradable permits on hand Russia is assumed to be a monopoly. Optimal costs of emission control programs are estimated for both the countries under four different market scenarios: non-cooperative no trade, US monopsony, Russia monopoly, and cooperative trading. The US monopsony scenario is found to be the most Pareto cost efficient. The Pareto efficient outcome, however, would require the US to make side payments to Russia, which will even out the differences in the cost savings from cooperative behavior. The second essay analyzes the price dynamics of the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX), a voluntary emissions trading market. By examining the volatility in market returns using AR-GARCH and Markov switching models, the study associates the market price fluctuations with two different political regimes of the US government. Further, the study also identifies a high volatility in the returns few months before the market collapse. Three possible regulatory and market-based forces are identified as probable causes of market volatility and its ultimate collapse. Organizers of other voluntary markets in the US and worldwide may closely watch for these regime switching forces in order to overcome emission market crashes. The third essay compares excess skewness and kurtosis in carbon prices between CCX and EU ETS (European Union Emission Trading Scheme) Phase I and II markets, by examining the tail behavior when market expectations exceed the threshold level. Dynamic extreme value theory is used to find out the mean price exceedence of the threshold levels and estimate the risk loss. The calculated risk measures suggest that CCX and EU ETS Phase I are extremely immature markets for a risk investor, whereas EU ETS Phase II is a more stable market that could develop as a mature carbon market in future years.