Global, regional, and national age–sex specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65·3 years (UI 65·0–65·6) in 1990, to 71·5 years (UI 71·0–71·9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47·5 million (UI 46·8–48·2) to 54·9 million (UI 53·6–56·3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute differences between countries decreased but relative differences increased. For women aged 25–39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20–49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative differences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10·7%, from 4·3 million deaths in 1990 to 4·8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specific mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.

Not just what they want, but why they want it: Traditional market research to deep customer insights

Purpose This paper explores advantages and disadvantages of both traditional market research and deep customer insight methods in order to lay the platform for revealing how a relationship between these two domains could be optimised during firm-based innovation. Design/methodology/approach The paper reports on an empirical research study conducted with thirteen Australian based firms engaged in a design-led approach to innovation. Firms were facilitated through a design-led approach where the process of gathering deep customer insights was isolated and investigated further in comparison to traditional market research methods. Findings Results show that deep customer insight methods are able to provide fresh, non-obvious ways of understanding customer needs, problems and behaviours that can become the foundation of new business opportunities. Findings concluded that deep customer insights methods provide the critical layer to understand why customers do and don’t engage with businesses. Revealing why was not accessible in traditional market research methods. Research limitations/implications The theoretical outcome of this study is a complementary methods matrix, providing guidance on appropriate implementation of research methods in accordance with a project’s timeline to optimise the complementation of traditional market research methods with design-led customer engagement methods. Practical implications Deep customer insight methods provide fresh, non-obvious ways of understanding customer needs, problems and behaviours that can become the foundation of new business opportunities. It is hoped that those in a position of data collection are encouraged to experiment and use deep customer insight methods to connect with their customers on a meaningful level and translate these insights into value. Originality/value This paper provides original value to a new understanding how design techniques can be applied to compliment and strengthen existing market research strategies. This is crucial in an era where business competition hinges on a subtle and often intimate understanding of customer needs and behaviours.

The Interview: Schnarking, Knob Jokes and the right to cause gross offence

Discussion of censorship and media freedom in the context of The Interview. A few weeks before the murderous attack by Islamic extremists on the satirical journal Charlie Hebdo, the Hollywood dream factory had its own encounter with would-be censors. The Interview (Evan Goldberg and Seth Rogen, 2014), as everyone with an interest in culture and current affairs cannot fail to be aware of by now, is a comedy in the “grossout” tradition exemplified by commercially successful movies such as Ted (Seth MacFarlane, 2012) and Bridesmaids (Paul Feig, 2011). Their humour is a combination of slapstick, physical comedy, and scatological jokes involving body fluids and the like— hence the “gross”. The best of them have been very funny, as well as bordering on the offensive (see Ted’s scene involving prostitutes, a foul-mouthed teddy bear and the entertainment value of someone taking a dump on the living room floor). They have often been controversial, as in the Farrelly brothers’ Me, Myself and Irene (2000), starring Jim Carrey as a schizophrenic police officer. At their most outrageous they have pushed the boundaries of political correctness to the limit.

Help disruptive students, don’t just suspend them

Reports that Australia scored poorly compared to the OECD average on classroom noise and disorder prompted calls for a return to “traditional” styles of teaching and increased power to allow principals to suspend “repeat offenders”. Such approaches, however, stand in direct conflict with the research evidence.

Working as one: A road map to disaster resilience for Australia

Natural disasters cause widespread disruption, costing the Australian economy $6.3 billion per year, and those costs are projected to rise incrementally to $23 billion by 2050. With more frequent natural disasters with greater consequences, Australian communities need the ability to prepare and plan for them, absorb and recover from them, and adapt more successfully to their effects. Enhancing Australian resilience will allow us to better anticipate disasters and assist in planning to reduce losses, rather than just waiting for the next king hit and paying for it afterwards. Given the scale of devastation, governments have been quick to pick up the pieces when major natural disasters hit. But this approach (‘The government will give you taxpayers’ money regardless of what you did to help yourself, and we’ll help you rebuild in the same risky area.’) has created a culture of dependence. This is unsustainable and costly. In 2008, ASPI published Taking a punch: building a more resilient Australia. That report emphasised the importance of strong leadership and coordination in disaster resilience policymaking, as well as the value of volunteers and family and individual preparation, in managing the effects of major disasters. This report offers a roadmap for enhancing Australia’s disaster resilience, building on the 2011 National Strategy for Disaster Resilience. It includes a snapshot of relevant issues and current resilience efforts in Australia, outlining key challenges and opportunities. The report sets out 11 recommendations to help guide Australia towards increasing national resilience, from individuals and local communities through to state and federal agencies.

The Library beyond (just) the book: Collaboration and co-working spaces for new technology and new technological practices

Libraries have often been first adopters of many new technological innovations, such as, punch cards, computers, barcodes, and e-book readers. It is thus not surprising that many libraries have embraced the advent of the internet as an opportunity to move away from just being repositories of books, towards becoming ideas stores and local network hubs for entrepreneurial thinking and new creative practices. This presentation will look at the case of “The Edge” – an initiative of the State Library of Queensland in Brisbane, Australia, to establish a digital culture centre and learning environment deliberately designed for the co-creation and co-construction of knowledge. This initiative illustrates the potential role of libraries as testing grounds for new technologies and technological practices, which is particularly relevant in the context of the NBN rollout across Australia. It also provides an example of new engagement strategies for innovative co-working spaces that are a vital element in a trend that sees professionals, creatives and designers leave their traditional places of work and embrace the city as their office.

More than just audiences : Developing communitas and social inclusion through theatre participation for young people

In a Facebook conversation about theatre going by young people in Brisbane playwright Valerie Foley noted, “theatre in and of itself may not have the cultural value it once had”. This chapter explores how three Australian live theatre/performance events – World Theatre Festival (Brisbane 2011 and 2012), Backbone’s annual 2High Festival (Brisbane 2012) and Next Wave Festival (Melbourne 2012) - repositioned the value of live performing arts to develop social cohesion and wellbeing for young people. The chapter draws out how these performance events developed communitas (Turner 2012) for young audiences.

Inability to swallow tablets is common and cause for concern

We naturally chew food before swallowing, but tablets and capsules require a complicated, conscious mechanism to over-ride the need to chew and the gag reflex, designed to eject foodstuffs that are not adequately chewed...

Small firm training: Just meeting the day-to-day needs of the business

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore what the attitudes of small firm owner-managers are to developing the skills of their key resources and then examine how these and other factors affect owner-managers’ preferences for training these employees. Design/methodology/approach This study of training in small road transport firms in West Australia is cast in light of the literature on human resource management in small firms underpinned by insights drawn using the resource based view of the firm. Small firms (less than 20 people) dominate this industry, while the increasing freight task, and extreme distances between West Australian ports, towns and mines highlight this sectors’ importance. Survey results from 39 small road transport firms and interviews with nine owner-managers are analysed. Findings Legislative, regulatory and licensing requirements were shown to be a key determinant of skills development. Employers ensured that basic standards for employee certification and qualification were met, as the penalty for not doing so would be too high. Regulations drove the need for certain types of training – licenses, fatigue management, occupational health and safety, handling dangerous goods, the Maritime Security Identification Card card, forklift license, mine site inductions – while owner-managers knew where to get the training their staff needed. Although regulation appeared most visible in prescribing what happened in relation to training for drivers, the relevance of owner-managers’ attitudes could not be ignored, nor could conditions in the firms external environment as this shaped how these requirements were met. Research limitations/implications The RBV is useful in showing how skill development enabled similarity in skills across firms, while the attitudes owner-managers and economic and social conditions meant what happened in firms around skill development varied. The importance of small firm owner-managers’ attitudes are clearly highlighted and shown to influence organizational decisions and choices around training, but these were not independent of the regulatory framework and the economic and social conditions within which the firm operated. The small firms in this study did engage workers in formal training when necessary but it was put in the context of the idiosyncratic approach of the owner-manager and the day-to-day needs of the firm. “Training” was essentially about ensuring certain types of skills were held by employees and then passing on knowledge to ensure the behavior of employees was consistent with the owner-manager’s vision for the firm in its current environment. Originality/value Ways industry and government can encourage training activity that goes beyond the day-to-day firm needs are suggested.

Just label it: Consumer rights, GM food labelling, and international trade

In the United States, there has been fierce debate over state, federal and international efforts to engage in genetically modified food labelling (GM food labelling). A grassroots coalition of consumers, environmentalists, organic farmers, and the food movement has pushed for law reform in respect of GM food labelling. The Just Label It campaign has encouraged United States consumers to send comments to the United States Food and Drug Administration to label genetically modified foods. This Chapter explores the various justifications made in respect of genetically modified food labelling. There has been a considerable effort to portray the issue of GM food labelling as one of consumer rights as part of ‘the right to know’. There has been a significant battle amongst farmers over GM food labelling – with organic farmers and biotechnology companies, fighting for precedence. There has also been a significant discussion about the use of GM food labelling as a form of environmental legislation. The prescriptions in GM food labelling regulations may serve to promote eco-labelling, and deter greenwashing. There has been a significant debate over whether GM food labelling may serve to regulate corporations – particularly from the food, agriculture, and biotechnology industries. There are significant issues about the interaction between intellectual property laws – particularly in respect of trade mark law and consumer protection – and regulatory proposals focused upon biotechnology. There has been a lack of international harmonization in respect of GM food labelling. As such, there has been a major use of comparative arguments about regulator models in respect of food labelling. There has also been a discussion about international law, particularly with the emergence of sweeping regional trade proposals, such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership. This Chapter considers the United States debates over genetically modified food labelling – at state, federal, and international levels. The battles often involved the use of citizen-initiated referenda. The policy conflicts have been policy-centric disputes – pitting organic farmers, consumers, and environmentalists against the food industry and biotechnology industry. Such battles have raised questions about consumer rights, public health, freedom of speech, and corporate rights. The disputes highlighted larger issues about lobbying, fund-raising, and political influence. The role of money in United States has been a prominent concern of Lawrence Lessig in his recent academic and policy work with the group, Rootstrikers. Part 1 considers the debate in California over Proposition 37. Part 2 explores other key state initiatives in respect of GM food labelling. Part 3 examines the Federal debate in the United States over GM food labelling. Part 4 explores whether regional trade agreements – such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) – will impact upon

Automatic surveillance in transportation hubs: No Longer just about catching the bad guy

As critical infrastructure such as transportation hubs continue to grow in complexity, greater importance is placed on monitoring these facilities to ensure their secure and efficient operation. In order to achieve these goals, technology continues to evolve in response to the needs of various infrastructure. To date, however, the focus of technology for surveillance has been primarily concerned with security, and little attention has been placed on assisting operations and monitoring performance in real-time. Consequently, solutions have emerged to provide real-time measurements of queues and crowding in spaces, but have been installed as system add-ons (rather than making better use of existing infrastructure), resulting in expensive infrastructure outlay for the owner/operator, and an overload of surveillance systems which in itself creates further complexity. Given many critical infrastructure already have camera networks installed, it is much more desirable to better utilise these networks to address operational monitoring as well as security needs. Recently, a growing number of approaches have been proposed to monitor operational aspects such as pedestrian throughput, crowd size and dwell times. In this paper, we explore how these techniques relate to and complement the more commonly seen security analytics, and demonstrate the value that can be added by operational analytics by demonstrating their performance on airport surveillance data. We explore how multiple analytics and systems can be combined to better leverage the large amount of data that is available, and we discuss the applicability and resulting benefits of the proposed framework for the ongoing operation of airports and airport networks.

‘Just choose the easy option’: Students talk about alcohol use and social influence

Previous research into young people’s drinking behaviour has studied how social practices influence their actions and how they negotiate drinking-related identities. Here, adopting the perspective of discursive psychology we examine how, for young people, social influences are bound up with issues of drinking and of identity. We conducted 19 focus groups with undergraduate students in Australia aged between 18 and 24 years. Thematic analysis of participants’ accounts for why they drink or do not drink was used to identify passages of talk that referred to social influence, paying particular attention to terms such as ‘pressure’ and ‘choice’. These passages were then analysed in fine-grained detail, using discourse analysis, to study how participants accounted for social influence. Participants treated their behaviour as accountable and produced three forms of account that: (1) minimised the choice available to them, (2) explained drinking as culture and (3) described resisting peer pressure. They also negotiated gendered social dynamics related to drinking. These forms of account allowed the participants to avoid individual responsibility for drinking or not drinking. These findings demonstrate that the effects of social influence on young people’s drinking behaviour cannot be assumed, as social influence itself becomes negotiable within local contexts of talk about drinking.

Mutations in the gene encoding IFT dynein complex component WDR34 cause jeune asphyxiating thoracic dystrophy

Bidirectional (anterograde and retrograde) motor-based intraflagellar transport (IFT) governs cargo transport and delivery processes that are essential for primary cilia growth and maintenance and for hedgehog signaling functions. The IFT dynein-2 motor complex that regulates ciliary retrograde protein transport contains a heavy chain dynein ATPase/motor subunit, DYNC2H1, along with other less well functionally defined subunits. Deficiency of IFT proteins, including DYNC2H1, underlies a spectrum of skeletal ciliopathies. Here, by using exome sequencing and a targeted next-generation sequencing panel, we identified a total of 11 mutations in WDR34 in 9 families with the clinical diagnosis of Jeune syndrome (asphyxiating thoracic dystrophy). WDR34 encodes a WD40 repeat-containing protein orthologous to Chlamydomonas FAP133, a dynein intermediate chain associated with the retrograde intraflagellar transport motor. Three-dimensional protein modeling suggests that the identified mutations all affect residues critical for WDR34 protein-protein interactions. We find that WDR34 concentrates around the centrioles and basal bodies in mammalian cells, also showing axonemal staining. WDR34 coimmunoprecipitates with the dynein-1 light chain DYNLL1 in vitro, and mining of proteomics data suggests that WDR34 could represent a previously unrecognized link between the cytoplasmic dynein-1 and IFT dynein-2 motors. Together, these data show that WDR34 is critical for ciliary functions essential to normal development and survival, most probably as a previously unrecognized component of the mammalian dynein-IFT machinery.

Introduction: Epitope mimicry as a component cause of autoimmune disease

The causes of autoimmune diseases have yet to be fully elucidated. Autoantibodies, autoreactive T cell responses, the presence of a predisposing major histocompatibility complex (MHC) haplotype and responsiveness to corticosteroids are features, and some are possibly contributory causes of autoimmune disease. The most challenging question is how autoimmune diseases are triggered. Molecular mimicry of host cell determinants by epitopes of infectious agents with ensuing cross-reactivity is one of the most popular yet still controversial theories for the initiation of autoimmune diseases [1]. Throughout the 1990s, hundreds of research articles focusing to various extents on epitope mimicry, as it is more accurately described in an immunological context, were published annually. Many of these articles presented data that were consistent with the hypothesis of mimicry but that did not actually prove the theory. Other equally convincing reports indicated that epitope mimicry was not the cause of the autoimmune disease despite sequence similarity between molecules of infectious agents and the host. Some 20 years ago, Rothman [2] proposed a model for disease causation and I have used this as a framework to examine the role of epitope mimicry in the development of autoimmune disease. The thesis of Rothman’s model is that an effect, in this instance autoimmune disease, arises as a result of a cause. In most cases, multiple-component causes contribute synergistically to yield the effect, and each of these components alone is insufficient as a cause. Logically, some component causes, such as the presence of a particular autoimmune response, are also necessary causes.

COL1A1 C-propeptide cleavage site mutation causes high bone mass, bone fragility and jaw lesions: A new cause of gnathodiaphyseal dysplasia?

Gnathodiaphyseal dysplasia (GDD) is a rare autosomal dominant condition characterized by bone fragility, irregular bone mineral density (BMD) and fibro-osseous lesions in the skull and jaw. Mutations in Anoctamin-5 (ANO5) have been identified in some cases. We aimed to identify the causative mutation in a family with features of GDD but no mutation in ANO5, using whole exome capture and massive parallel sequencing (WES). WES of two affected individuals (a mother and son) and the mother's unaffected parents identified a mutation in the C-propeptide cleavage site of COL1A1. Similar mutations have been reported in individuals with osteogenesis imperfecta (OI) and paradoxically increased BMD. C-propeptide cleavage site mutations in COL1A1 may not only cause 'high bone mass OI', but also the clinical features of GDD, specifically irregular sclerotic BMD and fibro-osseous lesions in the skull and jaw. GDD patients negative for ANO5 mutations should be assessed for mutations in type I collagen C-propeptide cleavage sites.