ECLAC Notes Nº 17

International Financial System's Reform Agenda Must Be Broadened Women's Employment More Vulnerable than Men's Economic Prospects for 2001. Op-ed of ECLAC's Executive Secretary, José Antonio Ocampo Highlights: The Pros and Cons of the FTAA Indicators Innovate, Innovate, Innovate Recent titles and calendar of activities

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the coastal and human settlements, tourism and transport sectors in Barbados

This report analyses the coastal and human settlements, tourism and transport sectors in Barbados to assess the potential economic impact of climate change on the sectors. The fundamental aim of this report is to assist with the development of strategies to deal with the potential impact of climate change on Barbados. Some of the key anticipated manifestations of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources. The economic impact of climate change on the three sectors was estimated for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios until 2050 (tourism and transport sectors) and 2100 (coastal and human settlements sector). An exploration of various adaptation strategies was also undertaken for each sector using standard evaluation techniques. The analysis has shown that based upon exposed assets and population, SLR can be classified as having the potential to create potential catastrophe in Barbados. The main contributing factor is the concentration of socioeconomic infrastructure along the coastline in vulnerable areas. The A2 and B2 projections have indicated that the number of catastrophes that can be classified as great is likely to be increased for the country. This is based upon the possible effects of the projected unscheduled impacts to the economy both in terms of loss of life and economic infrastructure. These results arise from the A2 and B2 projections, thereby indicating that growth in numbers and losses are largely due to socioeconomic changes over the projection period and hence the need for increased adaptation strategies. A key adaptation measure recommended is for the government of Barbados to begin reducing the infrastructure deficit by continuously investing in protective infrastructure to decrease the country’s vulnerability to changes in the climate. With regard to the tourism sector, it was found that by combining the impacts due to a reduction in tourist arrivals, coral reef loss and SLR, estimated total economic impact of climate change is US $7,648 million (A2 scenario) and US $5,127 million (B2 scenario). An economic analysis of the benefits and costs of several adaptation options was undertaken to determine the cost effectiveness of each one and it was found that four (4) out of nine (9) options had high cost-benefit ratios. It is therefore recommended that the strategies that were most attractive in terms of the cost-benefit ratios be pursued first and these were: (1) enhanced reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events; (2) artificial reefs or fish-aggregating devices; (3) development of national adaptation plans (levee, sea wall and boardwalk); (4) revision of policies related to financing carbon neutral tourism; and (5) increasing recommended design wind speeds for new tourism-related structures. The total cost of climate change on international transportation in Barbados aggregated the impacts of changes in temperature and precipitation, new climate policies and SLR. The impact for air transportation ranges from US$10,727 million (B2 scenario) to US$12,279 million (A2 scenario) and for maritime transportation impact estimates range from US$1,992 million (B2 scenario) to US$2,606 million (A2 scenario). For international transportation as a whole, the impact of climate change varies from US$12,719 million under the B2 scenario to US$14,885 million under the A2 scenario. Barbados has the institutions set up to implement adaptive strategies to strengthen the resilience of the existing international transportation system to climate change impacts. Air and sea terminals and facilities can be made more robust, raised, or even relocated as need be, and where critical to safety and mobility, expanded redundant systems may be considered.

An Assessment Of The Economic Impact Of Climate Change On The Transportation Sector In Montserrat

.--I. Introduction.--II. Literature review regarding climate change impacts on international transportation.--III. Economy of the Caribbean subregion and Monserrat.--IV. The international transportaion system in the Caribbean and in Monserrat.--V. Vulnerabilities of international transport system in Monserrat to climate change.--VI. Modelling.-- VII. Economic impact analysis of climate chage on the international transport.-- VIII. Approaches to mitigation and adaptation in the air and sea transportation sectors.-- IX. Conclusions

Disaster risk reduction in the education sector among selected Caribbean small island developing states

Caribbean Small Island Developing States (SIDS), by their very nature, are vulnerable to external shocks. Research shows that the Caribbean subregion experienced 165 natural disasters between 1990 and 2008 and the total impact of natural disasters on the subregion was estimated at US$136 billion. The impact on the social sectors was estimated at US$57 billion, or 42% of the total effect. As small open economies, the Caribbean SIDS are also vulnerable to the vagaries of the international economic system and have experienced declines in tourism, merchandise exports receipts, remittances and capital flows throughout the financial crisis. The negative impact of natural hazards exacerbates the capacity of Caribbean SIDS to overcome the development challenges, such as those posed by the current global economic and financial crisis. Disaster risk reduction (DRR), therefore, is of critical concern to subregional governments and their people. For the purpose of this study, six Caribbean SIDS were selected for detailed analyses on the macro socio-economic impact of extreme events to the education sector. They are the Cayman Islands, Grenada, Guyana, Haiti, Jamaica, and Montserrat. This paper proposes that better integration of DRR in the education sector cannot be easily achieved if policymakers do not recognize the social nature of risk perception and acceptance in Caribbean SIDS, which necessitates that risk reduction be treated as a negotiated process which engages all stakeholders.

Sanções econômicas internacionais

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

O FMI e o Sistema Financeiro Internacional: uma análise das mudanças estratégicas nas décadas de 1980 e 1990

The current study has aimed to analyze changes in strategies at the International Monetary Fund that occurred during the 1980s and 1990s. The analysis is done through the the recovery of the 1980s international economic scene, amid the global recession and debt crisis, and shows how the course of the decade and influenced changes under recommendations provided by the IMF to countries with balance of payments crisis. Furthermore, the paper also describes the changes in the international financial system, in some countries which have adopted them and also to the International Monetary Fund itself

Interpretação da crise financeira mundial sob a perspectiva de David Harvey

Pós-graduação em Economia - FCLAR

Evaluation of argyrophilic nucleolar organizer regions in oral tumor progression

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Inovação, competição internacional e transição hegemônica: a política científico-tecnológica dos Estados Unidos para evitar o declínio no século XXI

Pós-graduação em Relações Internacionais (UNESP - UNICAMP - PUC-SP) - FFC

Embryonic development of the fossorial gymnophthalmid lizards Nothobachia ablephara and Calyptommatus sinebrachiatus

The evolutionary history of the lizard family Gymnophthalmidae is characterized by several independent events of morphological modifications to a snake-like body plan, such as limb reduction, body elongation, loss of external ear openings, and modifications in skull bones, as adaptive responses to a burrowing and fossorial lifestyle. The origins of such morphological modifications from an ancestral lizard-like condition can be traced back to evolutionary changes in the developmental processes that coordinate the building of the organism. Thus, the characterization of the embryonic development of gymnophthalmid lizards is an essential step because it lays the foundation for future studies aiming to understand the exact nature of these changes and the developmental mechanisms that could have been responsible for the evolution of a serpentiform (snake-like) from a lacertiform (lizard-like) body form. Here we describe the post-ovipositional embryonic development of the fossorial species Nothobachia ablephara and Calyptommatus sinebrachiatus, presenting a detailed staging system for each one, with special focus on the development of the reduced limbs, and comparing their development to that of other lizard species. The data provided by the staging series are essential for future experimental studies addressing the genetic basis of the evolutionary and developmental variation of the Gymnophthalmidae. (C) 2012 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Sviluppo di metodologie di localizzazione nel contesto del Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty

Since the first underground nuclear explosion, carried out in 1958, the analysis of seismic signals generated by these sources has allowed seismologists to refine the travel times of seismic waves through the Earth and to verify the accuracy of the location algorithms (the ground truth for these sources was often known). Long international negotiates have been devoted to limit the proliferation and testing of nuclear weapons. In particular the Treaty for the comprehensive nuclear test ban (CTBT), was opened to signatures in 1996, though, even if it has been signed by 178 States, has not yet entered into force, The Treaty underlines the fundamental role of the seismological observations to verify its compliance, by detecting and locating seismic events, and identifying the nature of their sources. A precise definition of the hypocentral parameters represents the first step to discriminate whether a given seismic event is natural or not. In case that a specific event is retained suspicious by the majority of the State Parties, the Treaty contains provisions for conducting an on-site inspection (OSI) in the area surrounding the epicenter of the event, located through the International Monitoring System (IMS) of the CTBT Organization. An OSI is supposed to include the use of passive seismic techniques in the area of the suspected clandestine underground nuclear test. In fact, high quality seismological systems are thought to be capable to detect and locate very weak aftershocks triggered by underground nuclear explosions in the first days or weeks following the test. This PhD thesis deals with the development of two different seismic location techniques: the first one, known as the double difference joint hypocenter determination (DDJHD) technique, is aimed at locating closely spaced events at a global scale. The locations obtained by this method are characterized by a high relative accuracy, although the absolute location of the whole cluster remains uncertain. We eliminate this problem introducing a priori information: the known location of a selected event. The second technique concerns the reliable estimates of back azimuth and apparent velocity of seismic waves from local events of very low magnitude recorded by a trypartite array at a very local scale. For the two above-mentioned techniques, we have used the crosscorrelation technique among digital waveforms in order to minimize the errors linked with incorrect phase picking. The cross-correlation method relies on the similarity between waveforms of a pair of events at the same station, at the global scale, and on the similarity between waveforms of the same event at two different sensors of the try-partite array, at the local scale. After preliminary tests on the reliability of our location techniques based on simulations, we have applied both methodologies to real seismic events. The DDJHD technique has been applied to a seismic sequence occurred in the Turkey-Iran border region, using the data recorded by the IMS. At the beginning, the algorithm was applied to the differences among the original arrival times of the P phases, so the cross-correlation was not used. We have obtained that the relevant geometrical spreading, noticeable in the standard locations (namely the locations produced by the analysts of the International Data Center (IDC) of the CTBT Organization, assumed as our reference), has been considerably reduced by the application of our technique. This is what we expected, since the methodology has been applied to a sequence of events for which we can suppose a real closeness among the hypocenters, belonging to the same seismic structure. Our results point out the main advantage of this methodology: the systematic errors affecting the arrival times have been removed or at least reduced. The introduction of the cross-correlation has not brought evident improvements to our results: the two sets of locations (without and with the application of the cross-correlation technique) are very similar to each other. This can be commented saying that the use of the crosscorrelation has not substantially improved the precision of the manual pickings. Probably the pickings reported by the IDC are good enough to make the random picking error less important than the systematic error on travel times. As a further justification for the scarce quality of the results given by the cross-correlation, it should be remarked that the events included in our data set don’t have generally a good signal to noise ratio (SNR): the selected sequence is composed of weak events ( magnitude 4 or smaller) and the signals are strongly attenuated because of the large distance between the stations and the hypocentral area. In the local scale, in addition to the cross-correlation, we have performed a signal interpolation in order to improve the time resolution. The algorithm so developed has been applied to the data collected during an experiment carried out in Israel between 1998 and 1999. The results pointed out the following relevant conclusions: a) it is necessary to correlate waveform segments corresponding to the same seismic phases; b) it is not essential to select the exact first arrivals; and c) relevant information can be also obtained from the maximum amplitude wavelet of the waveforms (particularly in bad SNR conditions). Another remarkable point of our procedure is that its application doesn’t demand a long time to process the data, and therefore the user can immediately check the results. During a field survey, such feature will make possible a quasi real-time check allowing the immediate optimization of the array geometry, if so suggested by the results at an early stage.

Diritti umani e diritto alla salute - la questione dell’accesso ai farmaci come un problema di Giustizia Globale

Riconosciuto il problema dell’accesso ai farmaci come un problema di giustizia globale, la dissertazione, da un lato, è incentrata sullo studio dei diritti umani e sul diritto alla salute da una prospettiva giusfilosofica e, dall’altro, è finalizzata ad analizzare la disciplina brevettuale internazionale, sia approfondendo gli interessi realmente in gioco, sia studiando la struttura economica del brevetto stesso. Si è cercato quindi di guardare a tali interessi da una nuova prospettiva, ipotizzando una gerarchia di valori che sia completa e coerente con gli obiettivi che la dottrina, la giurisprudenza, nonché il diritto internazionale formalmente enunciano. Il progetto di ricerca vuole, in definitiva, arrivare a proporre nuove soluzioni giuridiche al problema dell’accesso ai farmaci. La dissertazione svolge pertanto uno studio critico della proposta di Thomas Pogge, di natura politica e giuridica e sorretta da istanze filosofiche, volta alla soluzione del problema dell’accesso ai farmaci, i.e. l’Health Impact Fund (HIF). Proposta che pone radicalmente in discussione, anche concretamente, il dogma del monopolio concesso con la privativa quale ricompensa per i costi di R&D sostenuti dai titolari dei brevetti e che pone, invece, l’accento sull’effettivo impatto sulla salute globale di ogni singola invenzione. Analizzandone approfonditamente gli aspetti più rilevanti, si passano poi in rassegna, criticamente, le proposte, alternative o di riforma, del sistema di proprietà intellettuale, volte al miglioramento dell’accesso ai farmaci; a tal proposito, si propone quindi una riforma transitoria della disciplina brevettuale, c.d. Trading Time for Space (TTS), che prevede un allungamento temporale dell’esclusiva brevettuale (Time) in cambio della vendita da parte del titolare della privativa del farmaco ad un prezzo accessibile nei Paesi in via di sviluppo (Space).

Giochi diplomatici. Sport e politica estera nell'Italia del secondo dopoguerra (1943-1953)

Questa tesi di dottorato, partendo dall’assunto teorico secondo cui lo sport, pur essendo un fenomeno periferico e non decisivo del sistema politico internazionale, debba considerarsi, in virtù della sua elevata visibilità, sia come un componente delle relazioni internazionali sia come uno strumento di politica estera, si pone l’obiettivo di investigare, con un approccio di tipo storico-politico, l’attività internazionale dello sport italiano nel decennio che va dal 1943 al 1953. Nello specifico viene dedicata una particolare attenzione agli attori e alle istituzioni della “politica estera sportiva”, al rientro dello sport italiano nel consesso internazionale e alla sua forza legittimante di attrazione culturale. Vengono approfonditi altresì alcuni casi relativi a «crisi politiche» che influirono sullo sport e a «crisi sportive» che influenzarono la politica. La ricerca viene portata avanti con lo scopo primario di far emergere, da un lato se e quanto coscientemente lo sport sia stato usato come strumento di politica estera da parte dei governi e della diplomazia dell’Italia repubblicana, dall’altro quanto e con quale intensità lo sviluppo dell’attività internazionale dello sport italiano abbia avuto significative ripercussioni sull’andamento e dai rapporti di forza della politica internazionale.

Cambiamenti epidemiologici dell'epatocarcinoma agli inizi del xxi secolo: Dal ruolo emergente delle malattie dismetaboliche quali fattori eziopatogemetici alla necessita' di revisione del sistema di stadiaziome

Introduzione e scopo: la rapida diffusione delle malattie dismetaboliche sta modificando l’epidemiologia dell’epatocarcinoma (HCC). Scopo della tesi è, attraverso quattro studi, analizzare l’impatto di questi cambiamenti nella gestione clinica del paziente affetto da HCC. Materiali e metodi: quattro studi di coorte, condotti con analisi retrospettiva del database ITA.LI.CA. Studio 1:3658 pazienti arruolati tra il 01-01-2001 ed il 31-12-2012 suddivisi in base alla data di diagnosi:2001-2004 (954 pazienti), 2005-2008 (1122 pazienti), 2009-2012 (1582 pazienti). Studio 2:analisi comparativa tra 756 pazienti con HCC-NAFLD e 611 pazienti con HCC-HCV. Studio 3:proposta di quattro modelli alternativi al BCLC originale con validazione di una proposta di sottostadiazione dell’intermedio, considerando 2606 pazienti arruolati tra il 01-01-2000 e il 31-12-2012 e riallocati secondo gradi diversi di perfomance status (PS). Studio 4:analisi di 696 pazienti con HCC in stadio intermedio diagnosticato dopo il 1999 stratificati per trattamento. Risultati: studio 1:progressivo aumento dell’età alla diagnosi e delle eziologie dismetaboliche; più frequente esordio dell’HCC in stadio precoce e con funzione epatica più conservata; aumento della sopravvivenza dopo il 2008. Studio 2:i pazienti con HCC-NAFLD mostrano più frequentemente un tumore infiltrativo diagnosticato fuori dai programmi di sorveglianza, con prognosi peggiore rispetto ai pazienti HCC-HCV. Questa differenza di sopravvivenza si elimina rimuovendo i fattori di confondimento attraverso propensity analysis. Studio 3:il PS1 non è un predittore indipendente di sopravvivenza. Il modello 4 (considerando PS1=PS0 e con la sottostadiazione proposta), ha la migliore capacità discriminativa. Studio 4:i trattamenti curativi riducono la mortalità più della TACE, anche dopo propensity analysis. Conclusioni: l’aumento delle patologie dismetaboliche comporterà diagnosi di malattia ad uno stadio più avanzato, quando sintomatica, rendendo necessario stabilire un programma di sorveglianza. Inoltre per una migliore stratificazione e gestione dei pazienti, bisogna riconsiderare il ruolo del PS ed offrire un ventaglio di opzioni terapeutiche anche per il pazienti in stadio intermedio.

Heterogeneity of patients with intermediate (BCLC B) Hepatocellular Carcinoma: proposal for a subclassification to facilitate treatment decisions

The intermediate stage of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) comprises a highly heterogeneous patient population and therefore poses unique challenges for therapeutic management, different from the early and advanced stages. Patients classified as having intermediate HCC by the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging system present with varying tumor burden and liver function. Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is currently recommended as the standard of care in this setting, but there is considerable variation in the clinical benefit patients derive from this treatment.In April 2012, a panel of experts convened to discuss unresolved issues surrounding the application of current guidelines when managing patients with intermediate HCC. The meeting explored the applicability of a subclassification system for intermediate HCC patients to tailor therapeutic interventions based on the evidence available to date and expert opinion. The present report summarizes the proposal of the expert panel: four substages of intermediate HCC patients, B1 to B4.