The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific Ocean and El Niño

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring fluctuation that originates in the tropical Pacific region and affects ecosystems, agriculture, freshwater supplies, hurricanes and other severe weather events worldwide. Under the influence of global warming, the mean climate of the Pacific region will probably undergo significant changes. The tropical easterly trade winds are expected to weaken; surface ocean temperatures are expected to warm fastest near the equator and more slowly farther away; the equatorial thermocline that marks the transition between the wind-mixed upper ocean and deeper layers is expected to shoal; and the temperature gradients across the thermocline are expected to become steeper. Year-to-year ENSO variability is controlled by a delicate balance of amplifying and damping feedbacks, and one or more of the physical processes that are responsible for determining the characteristics of ENSO will probably be modified by climate change. Therefore, despite considerable progress in our understanding of the impact of climate change on many of the processes that contribute to El Niño variability, it is not yet possible to say whether ENSO activity will be enhanced or damped, or if the frequency of events will change.

The impact of global freshwater forcing on the thermohaline circulation: adjustment of North Atlantic convection sites in a CGCM

On the time scale of a century, the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) is sensitive to the global surface salinity distribution. The advection of salinity toward the deep convection sites of the North Atlantic is one of the driving mechanisms for the THC. There is both a northward and a southward contributions. The northward salinity advection (Nsa) is related to the evaporation in the subtropics, and contributes to increased salinity in the convection sites. The southward salinity advection (Ssa) is related to the Arctic freshwater forcing and tends on the contrary to diminish salinity in the convection sites. The THC changes results from a delicate balance between these opposing mechanisms. In this study we evaluate these two effects using the IPSL-CM4 ocean-atmosphere-sea-ice coupled model (used for IPCC AR4). Perturbation experiments have been integrated for 100 years under modern insolation and trace gases. River runoff and evaporation minus precipitation are successively set to zero for the ocean during the coupling procedure. This allows the effect of processes Nsa and Ssa to be estimated with their specific time scales. It is shown that the convection sites in the North Atlantic exhibit various sensitivities to these processes. The Labrador Sea exhibits a dominant sensitivity to local forcing and Ssa with a typical time scale of 10 years, whereas the Irminger Sea is mostly sensitive to Nsa with a 15 year time scale. The GIN Seas respond to both effects with a time scale of 10 years for Ssa and 20 years for Nsa. It is concluded that, in the IPSL-CM4, the global freshwater forcing damps the THC on centennial time scales.

Grassland leafhoppers (Hemiptera: Auchenorrhyncha) as indicators of habitat condition - a comparison of between-site and between-year differences in assemblage composition

The Auchenorrhyncha (leafhoppers) show great potential as indicators of grassland habitat quality, which would make them useful as a conservation tool. However, they are known to have labile populations. The relative importance of site identity and the year of sampling in the composition of leafhopper assemblages on chalk grassland are assessed for two sets of sites sampled twice. The study included a total of 95 sites (one set of 54, the other of 41), and demonstrated that for both sets the vegetation community and geographical location had high explanatory value, while the influence of year was small. The conclusion is that, notwithstanding population fluctuations, the leafhopper assemblages are a good indicator of habitat quality, and represent a potentially valuable tool in grassland conservation and restoration.

Trust and governance of global value chains: The case of a Brazilian beef processor

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to offer an exploratory case study comparing one Brazilian beef processor's relationships supplying two different distribution channels, an EU importer and an EU retail chain operating in Brazil. Design/methodology/approach - The paper begins with a short review of global value chains and the recent literature on trust. It gives the background to the Brazilian beef chain and presents data obtained through in-depth interviews, annual reports and direct observation with the Brazilian beef processor, the EU importer and the retailer. The interviews were conducted with individual firms, but the analysis places them in a chain context, identifying the links and relationships between the agents of the chains and aiming to describe each distribution channel. Findings - Executive chain governance exercised by the domestic retailer stimulates technical upgrading and transferring of best practices to local. suppliers. Consequently, this kind of relationship results in more trust within the global value chain. Practical implications - There are difficulties and challenges facing this Brazilian beef processor that are party related to the need to comply with increasingly complex and demanding food safety and food quality standards. There is still a gap between practices adopted for the export market and practices adopted locally. The strategies of transnational retailers in offering differentiated beef should be taken in account. Originality/value - The research outlines an interdisciplinary framework able to explain chain relationships and the kind of trust that emerges in relationships between EU importer/retail and a developing country supplier.

Prediction of global and local model quality in CASP8 using the ModFOLD server

The development of effective methods for predicting the quality of three-dimensional (3D) models is fundamentally important for the success of tertiary structure (TS) prediction strategies. Since CASP7, the Quality Assessment (QA) category has existed to gauge the ability of various model quality assessment programs (MQAPs) at predicting the relative quality of individual 3D models. For the CASP8 experiment, automated predictions were submitted in the QA category using two methods from the ModFOLD server-ModFOLD version 1.1 and ModFOLDclust. ModFOLD version 1.1 is a single-model machine learning based method, which was used for automated predictions of global model quality (QMODE1). ModFOLDclust is a simple clustering based method, which was used for automated predictions of both global and local quality (QMODE2). In addition, manual predictions of model quality were made using ModFOLD version 2.0-an experimental method that combines the scores from ModFOLDclust and ModFOLD v1.1. Predictions from the ModFOLDclust method were the most successful of the three in terms of the global model quality, whilst the ModFOLD v1.1 method was comparable in performance to other single-model based methods. In addition, the ModFOLDclust method performed well at predicting the per-residue, or local, model quality scores. Predictions of the per-residue errors in our own 3D models, selected using the ModFOLD v2.0 method, were also the most accurate compared with those from other methods. All of the MQAPs described are publicly accessible via the ModFOLD server at: http://www.reading.ac.uk/bioinf/ModFOLD/. The methods are also freely available to download from: http://www.reading.ac.uk/bioinf/downloads/.

Use of global gene expression patterns in mechanistic studies of oestrogen action in MCF7 human breast cancer cells

Over the years, the MCF7 human breast cancer cell line has provided a model system for the study of cellular and molecular mechanisms in oestrogen regulation of cell proliferation and in progression to oestrogen and antioestrogen independent growth. Global gene expression profiling has shown that oestrogen action in MCF7 cells involves the coordinated regulation of hundreds of genes across a wide range of functional groupings and that more genes are down regulated than upregulated. Adaptation to long-term oestrogen deprivation, which results in loss of oestrogen-responsive growth, involves alterations to gene patterns not only at early time points (0-4 weeks) but continuing through to later times (20-55 weeks), and even involves alterations to patterns of oestrogen-regulated gene expression. Only 48% of the genes which were regulated >= 2-fold by oestradiol in oestrogen-responsive cells retained this responsiveness after long-term oestrogen deprivation but other genes developed de novo oestrogen regulation. Long-term exposure to fulvestrant, which resulted in loss of growth inhibition by the antioestrogen, resulted in some very large fold changes in gene expression up to 10,000-fold. Comparison of gene profiles produced by environmental chemicals with oestrogenic properties showed that each ligand gave its own unique expression profile which suggests that environmental oestrogens entering the human breast may give rise to a more complex web of interference in cell function than simply mimicking oestrogen action at inappropriate times. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Retrieval of global atmospheric electrical activity at a polluted urban site

The atmospheric electrical Potential Gradient (PG) arises from global thunderstorm activity, but surface measurements of the atmospheric Potential Gradient (PG) are influenced by global thunderstorms and local aerosol concentration changes. The local aerosol change can be monitored independently, and in some cases the concentration changes are closely related to PG changes. For these circumstances, a general theory to remove the local aerosol influence on PG measurements has been developed. Continuous measurements of PG and aerosol mass concentration were made during 24–31 Dec, 2005 within an urban environment at Reading, UK. The average diurnal variation of PG showed a double diurnal cycle, with maxima in the early morning and evening hours. The aerosol concentration has similar double maxima. Removing the aerosol using from the PG and aerosol correlation returns a single diurnal cycle, suggestive of the more global PG diurnal cycle.

Simulating the impacts of global warming on wheat in China using a large area crop model

Temperature is one of the most prominent environmental factors that determine plant growth, devel- opment, and yield. Cool and moist conditions are most favorable for wheat. Wheat is likely to be highly vulnerable to further warming because currently the temperature is already close to or above optimum. In this study, the impacts of warming and extreme high temperature stress on wheat yield over China were investigated by using the general large area model (GLAM) for annual crops. The results showed that each 1±C rise in daily mean temperature would reduce the average wheat yield in China by about 4.6%{5.7% mainly due to the shorter growth duration, except for a small increase in yield at some grid cells. When the maximum temperature exceeded 30.5±C, the simulated grain-set fraction declined from 1 at 30.5±C to close to 0 at about 36±C. When the total grain-set was lower than the critical fractional grain-set (0.575{0.6), harvest index and potential grain yield were reduced. In order to reduce the negative impacts of warming, it is crucial to take serious actions to adapt to the climate change, for example, by shifting sowing date, adjusting crop distribution and structure, breeding heat-resistant varieties, and improving the monitoring, forecasting, and early warning of extreme climate events.