Development and Validation of Predictive Models of Cardiac Mortality and Transplantation in Resynchronization Therapy

AbstractBackground:30-40% of cardiac resynchronization therapy cases do not achieve favorable outcomes.Objective:This study aimed to develop predictive models for the combined endpoint of cardiac death and transplantation (Tx) at different stages of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT).Methods:Prospective observational study of 116 patients aged 64.8 ± 11.1 years, 68.1% of whom had functional class (FC) III and 31.9% had ambulatory class IV. Clinical, electrocardiographic and echocardiographic variables were assessed by using Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier curves.Results:The cardiac mortality/Tx rate was 16.3% during the follow-up period of 34.0 ± 17.9 months. Prior to implantation, right ventricular dysfunction (RVD), ejection fraction < 25% and use of high doses of diuretics (HDD) increased the risk of cardiac death and Tx by 3.9-, 4.8-, and 5.9-fold, respectively. In the first year after CRT, RVD, HDD and hospitalization due to congestive heart failure increased the risk of death at hazard ratios of 3.5, 5.3, and 12.5, respectively. In the second year after CRT, RVD and FC III/IV were significant risk factors of mortality in the multivariate Cox model. The accuracy rates of the models were 84.6% at preimplantation, 93% in the first year after CRT, and 90.5% in the second year after CRT. The models were validated by bootstrapping.Conclusion:We developed predictive models of cardiac death and Tx at different stages of CRT based on the analysis of simple and easily obtainable clinical and echocardiographic variables. The models showed good accuracy and adjustment, were validated internally, and are useful in the selection, monitoring and counseling of patients indicated for CRT.

Comparasion of polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis (PAGE), immuno-electron microscopy (IEM) and enzyme immunoassay (EIA) for the rapid diagnosis of rotavirus infection in children

Detection of rotavirus RNA by polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis (PAGE) proved to be a highly sensitive and rapid diagnostic test. A comparison of this assay with immuno-electron microscopy (IEM) and enzyme immunoassay (EIA) in 245 faeces from children with gastroenteritis revealed complete agreement between the three assays in 238 (97.14%) samples. Among 75 samples positive in at least one of the three assays, negative results were observed in 5 (6.48%) by PAGE, in 6 (6.76%) by EIA and in none by IEM. Silver staining greatly increased the sensitivity of the PAGE assay. We conclude that although IEM remains the most sensitive and rapid rotavirus diagnostic assay, the PAGE technique has many advantages in its favour, including the non-requirement of expensive equipment, the use of only chemically defined reagents and the capacity to distinguish virus subgroup and variants and to detect non-crossreactive rotaviruses which are missed in serological assays.

Scores to predict major bleeding risk during oral anticoagulation therapy: a prospective validation study.

BACKGROUND: Clinical scores may help physicians to better assess the individual risk/benefit of oral anticoagulant therapy. We aimed to externally validate and compare the prognostic performance of 7 clinical prediction scores for major bleeding events during oral anticoagulation therapy. METHODS: We followed 515 adult patients taking oral anticoagulants to measure the first major bleeding event over a 12-month follow-up period. The performance of each score to predict the risk of major bleeding and the physician's subjective assessment of bleeding risk were compared with the C statistic. RESULTS: The cumulative incidence of a first major bleeding event during follow-up was 6.8% (35/515). According to the 7 scoring systems, the proportions of major bleeding ranged from 3.0% to 5.7% for low-risk, 6.7% to 9.9% for intermediate-risk, and 7.4% to 15.4% for high-risk patients. The overall predictive accuracy of the scores was poor, with the C statistic ranging from 0.54 to 0.61 and not significantly different from each other (P=.84). Only the Anticoagulation and Risk Factors in Atrial Fibrillation score performed slightly better than would be expected by chance (C statistic, 0.61; 95% confidence interval, 0.52-0.70). The performance of the scores was not statistically better than physicians' subjective risk assessments (C statistic, 0.55; P=.94). CONCLUSION: The performance of 7 clinical scoring systems in predicting major bleeding events in patients receiving oral anticoagulation therapy was poor and not better than physicians' subjective assessments.

β-Glucan antigenemia assay for the diagnosis of invasive fungal infections in patients with hematological malignancies: a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies from the Third European Conference on Infections in Leukemia (ECIL-3).

BACKGROUND: Invasive fungal infections (IFIs) are life-threatening complications in patients with hemato-oncological malignancies, and early diagnosis is crucial for outcome. The compound 1,3-β-D-glucan (BG), a cell wall component of most fungal species, can be detected in blood during IFI. Four commercial BG antigenemia assays are available (Fungitell, Fungitec-G, Wako, and Maruha). This meta-analysis from the Third European Conference on Infections in Leukemia (ECIL-3) assessed the performance of BG assays for the diagnosis of IFI in hemato-oncological patients. METHODS: Studies reporting the performance of BG antigenemia assays for the diagnosis of IFI (European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer and Mycoses Study Group criteria) in hemato-oncological patients were identified. The analysis was focused on high-quality cohort studies with exclusion of case-control studies. Meta-analysis was performed by conventional meta-analytical pooling and bivariate analysis. RESULTS: Six cohort studies were included (1771 adult patients with 414 IFIs of which 215 were proven or probable). Similar performance was observed among the different BG assays. For the cutoff recommended by the manufacturer, the diagnostic performance of the BG assay in proven or probable IFI was better with 2 consecutive positive test results (diagnostic odds ratio for 2 consecutive vs one single positive results, 111.8 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 38.6-324.1] vs 16.3 [95% CI, 6.5-40.8], respectively; heterogeneity index for 2 consecutive vs one single positive results, 0% vs 72.6%, respectively). For 2 consecutive tests, sensitivity and specificity were 49.6% (95% CI, 34.0%-65.3%) and 98.9% (95% CI, 97.4%-99.5%), respectively. Estimated positive and negative predictive values for an IFI prevalence of 10% were 83.5% and 94.6%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Different BG assays have similar accuracy for the diagnosis of IFI in hemato-oncological patients. Two consecutive positive antigenemia assays have very high specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value. Because sensitivity is low, the test needs to be combined with clinical, radiological, and microbiological findings.

Effect of training-sample size and classification difficulty on the accuracy of genomic predictors.

Introduction: As part of the MicroArray Quality Control (MAQC)-II project, this analysis examines how the choice of univariate feature-selection methods and classification algorithms may influence the performance of genomic predictors under varying degrees of prediction difficulty represented by three clinically relevant endpoints. Methods: We used gene-expression data from 230 breast cancers (grouped into training and independent validation sets), and we examined 40 predictors (five univariate feature-selection methods combined with eight different classifiers) for each of the three endpoints. Their classification performance was estimated on the training set by using two different resampling methods and compared with the accuracy observed in the independent validation set. Results: A ranking of the three classification problems was obtained, and the performance of 120 models was estimated and assessed on an independent validation set. The bootstrapping estimates were closer to the validation performance than were the cross-validation estimates. The required sample size for each endpoint was estimated, and both gene-level and pathway-level analyses were performed on the obtained models. Conclusions: We showed that genomic predictor accuracy is determined largely by an interplay between sample size and classification difficulty. Variations on univariate feature-selection methods and choice of classification algorithm have only a modest impact on predictor performance, and several statistically equally good predictors can be developed for any given classification problem.

Prospective validation of the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index. A clinical prognostic model for pulmonary embolism

Practice guidelines recommend outpatient care for selected patients with non-massive pulmonary embolism (PE), but fail to specify how these low-risk patients should be identified. Using data from U.S. patients, we previously derived the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI), a prediction rule that risk stratifies patients with PE. We sought to validate the PESI in a European patient cohort. We prospectively validated the PESI in patients with PE diagnosed at six emergency departments in three European countries. We used baseline data for the rule's 11 prognostic variables to stratify patients into five risk classes (I-V) of increasing probability of mortality. The outcome was overall mortality at 90 days after presentation. To assess the accuracy of the PESI to predict mortality, we estimated the sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values for low- (risk classes I/II) versus higher-risk patients (risk classes III-V), and the discriminatory power using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Among 357 patients with PE, overall mortality was 5.9%, ranging from 0% in class I to 17.9% in class V. The 186 (52%) low-risk patients had an overall mortality of 1.1% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.1-3.8%) compared to 11.1% (95% CI: 6.8-16.8%) in the 171 (48%) higher-risk patients. The PESI had a high sensitivity (91%, 95% CI: 71-97%) and a negative predictive value (99%, 95% CI: 96-100%) for predicting mortality. The area under the ROC curve was 0.78 (95% CI: 0.70-0.86). The PESI reliably identifies patients with PE who are at low risk of death and who are potential candidates for outpatient care. The PESI may help physicians make more rational decisions about hospitalization for patients with PE.

Dot-dye-immunoassay for the diagnosis of schistosomiasis mansoni

A new serological assay dot-dye-immunoassay (dot-DIA) was evaluated for the diagnosis of schistosomiasis mansoni. This method consist of four steps: (a) biding of antigens to a nitrocellulose membrane (NC); (b) blocking of free sites of the NC; (c) incubation in specific primary antibody; (d) detection of primary antibody reactivity by color development using second antibody coupled to textile dyes. Sera from 82 individuals, 61 with Schistosoma mansoni eggs in the stool and 21 stool negative were tested by ELISA, dot-ELISA, and dotDIA. A high level of agreement between the methods tested was observed for all sera tested: ELISA x dot-ELISA: 95.1%, ELISA x dot-DIA: 92.7% and dot-ELISA x dot-DIA: 97.6%. In this study, dot-DIA proved to be a feasible, sensitive, rapid and practical test for the diagnosis of shcistosomiasis.

Diagnostic accuracy of G-CSF, IL-8, and IL-1ra in critically ill children with suspected infection.

OBJECTIVE: To elucidate the diagnostic accuracy of granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF), interleukin-8 (IL-8), and interleukin-1 receptor antagonist (IL-1ra) in identifying patients with sepsis among critically ill pediatric patients with suspected infection. DESIGN AND SETTING: Nested case-control study in a multidisciplinary neonatal and pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) PATIENTS: PICU patients during a 12-month period with suspected infection, and plasma available from the time of clinical suspicion (254 episodes, 190 patients). MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: Plasma levels of G-CSF, IL-8, and IL-1ra. Episodes classified on the basis of clinical and bacteriological findings into: culture-confirmed sepsis, probable sepsis, localized infection, viral infection, and no infection. Plasma levels were significantly higher in episodes of culture-confirmed sepsis than in episodes with ruled-out infection. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was higher for IL-8 and G-CSF than for IL-1ra. Combining IL-8 and G-CSF improved the diagnostic performance, particularly as to the detection of Gram-negative sepsis. Sensitivity was low (<50%) in detecting Staphylococcus epidermidis bacteremia or localized infections. CONCLUSIONS: In this heterogeneous population of critically ill children with suspected infection, a model combining plasma levels of IL-8 and G-CSF identified patients with sepsis. Negative results do not rule out S. epidermidis bacteremia or locally confined infectious processes. The model requires validation in an independent data-set.

A novel tool for the assessment of pain: validation in low back pain.

BACKGROUND: Adequate pain assessment is critical for evaluating the efficacy of analgesic treatment in clinical practice and during the development of new therapies. Yet the currently used scores of global pain intensity fail to reflect the diversity of pain manifestations and the complexity of underlying biological mechanisms. We have developed a tool for a standardized assessment of pain-related symptoms and signs that differentiates pain phenotypes independent of etiology. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using a structured interview (16 questions) and a standardized bedside examination (23 tests), we prospectively assessed symptoms and signs in 130 patients with peripheral neuropathic pain caused by diabetic polyneuropathy, postherpetic neuralgia, or radicular low back pain (LBP), and in 57 patients with non-neuropathic (axial) LBP. A hierarchical cluster analysis revealed distinct association patterns of symptoms and signs (pain subtypes) that characterized six subgroups of patients with neuropathic pain and two subgroups of patients with non-neuropathic pain. Using a classification tree analysis, we identified the most discriminatory assessment items for the identification of pain subtypes. We combined these six interview questions and ten physical tests in a pain assessment tool that we named Standardized Evaluation of Pain (StEP). We validated StEP for the distinction between radicular and axial LBP in an independent group of 137 patients. StEP identified patients with radicular pain with high sensitivity (92%; 95% confidence interval [CI] 83%-97%) and specificity (97%; 95% CI 89%-100%). The diagnostic accuracy of StEP exceeded that of a dedicated screening tool for neuropathic pain and spinal magnetic resonance imaging. In addition, we were able to reproduce subtypes of radicular and axial LBP, underscoring the utility of StEP for discerning distinct constellations of symptoms and signs. CONCLUSIONS: We present a novel method of identifying pain subtypes that we believe reflect underlying pain mechanisms. We demonstrate that this new approach to pain assessment helps separate radicular from axial back pain. Beyond diagnostic utility, a standardized differentiation of pain subtypes that is independent of disease etiology may offer a unique opportunity to improve targeted analgesic treatment.

Validation of a score for predicting fatal bleeding in patients receiving anticoagulation for venous thromboembolism.

BACKGROUND: The only available score to assess the risk for fatal bleeding in patients with venous thromboembolism (VTE) has not been validated yet. METHODS: We used the RIETE database to validate the risk-score for fatal bleeding within the first 3 months of anticoagulation in a new cohort of patients recruited after the end of the former study. Accuracy was measured using the ROC curve analysis. RESULTS: As of December 2011, 39,284 patients were recruited in RIETE. Of these, 15,206 had not been included in the former study, and were considered to validate the score. Within the first 3 months of anticoagulation, 52 patients (0.34%; 95% CI: 0.27-0.45) died of bleeding. Patients with a risk score of <1.5 points (64.1% of the cohort) had a 0.10% rate of fatal bleeding, those with a score of 1.5-4.0 (33.6%) a rate of 0.72%, and those with a score of >4 points had a rate of 1.44%. The c-statistic for fatal bleeding was 0.775 (95% CI 0.720-0.830). The score performed better for predicting gastrointestinal (c-statistic, 0.869; 95% CI: 0.810-0.928) than intracranial (c-statistic, 0.687; 95% CI: 0.568-0.806) fatal bleeding. The score value with highest combined sensitivity and specificity was 1.75. The risk for fatal bleeding was significantly increased (odds ratio: 7.6; 95% CI 3.7-16.2) above this cut-off value. CONCLUSIONS: The accuracy of the score in this validation cohort was similar to the accuracy found in the index study. Interestingly, it performed better for predicting gastrointestinal than intracranial fatal bleeding.

Serodiagnosis of Trypanosoma cruzi Infection Using the New Particle Gel Immunoassay - ID-PaGIA Chagas

The ID-Chagas test is a particle gel immunoassay (PaGIA). Red coloured particles are sensitised with three different synthetic peptides representing antigen sequences of Trypanosoma cruzi: Ag2, TcD and TcE. When these particles are mixed with serum containing specific antibodies, they agglutinate. The reaction mixture is centrifuged through a gel filtration matrix allowing free agglutinated particles to remain trapped on the top or distributed within the gel. The result can be read visually. In order to investigate the ability of the ID-PaGIA to discriminate negative and positive sera, 111 negative and 119 positive, collected in four different Brazilian institutions, were tested by each of the participants. All sera were previously classified as positive or negative according to results obtained with three conventional tests (indirect immunofluorescence, indirect hemaglutination, and enzime linked immunosorbent assay). Sensitivity rates of ID-PaGIA varied from 95.7% to 97.4% with mean sensitivity of 96.8% and specificity rates varied from 93.8 to 98.8% with mean specificity of 94.6%. The overall Kappa test was 0.94. The assay presents as advantages the simplicity of operation and the reaction time of 20 min. In this study, ID-PaGIA showed to be highly sensitive and specific.

Evaluation of an enzyme immunoassay for hepatitis C virus antibody detection using a recombinant protein derived from the core region of hepatitis C virus genome

This study was undertaken to evaluate an enzyme immunoassay (EIA) for hepatitis C virus antibody detection (anti-HCV), using just one antigen. Anti-HCV EIA was designed to detect anti-HCV IgG using on the solid-phase a recombinant C22 antigen localized at the N-terminal end of the core region of HCV genome, produced by BioMérieux. The serum samples diluted in phosphate buffer saline were added to wells coated with the C22, and incubated. After washings, the wells were loaded with conjugated anti-IgG, and read in a microtiter plate reader (492 nm). Serum samples of 145 patients were divided in two groups: a control group of 39 patients with non-C hepatitis (10 acute hepatitis A, 10 acute hepatitis B, 9 chronic hepatitis B, and 10 autoimmune hepatitis) and a study group consisting of 106 patients with chronic HCV hepatitis. In the study group all patients had anti-HCV detected by a commercially available EIA (Abbott®), specific for HCV structural and nonstructural polypeptides, alanine aminotransferase elevation or positive serum HCV-RNA detected by nested-PCR. They also had a liver biopsy compatible with chronic hepatitis. The test was positive in 101 of the 106 (95%) sera from patients in the study group and negative in 38 of the 39 (97%) sera from those in the control group, showing an accuracy of 96%. According to these results, our EIA could be used to detect anti-HCV in the serum of patients infected with hepatitis C virus.

Detection of the acute phase of abdominal angiostrongyliasis with a parasite-specific IgG enzyme linked immunosorbent assay

Angiostrongylus costaricensis may cause intestinal lesions of varied severity when it accidentally infects man in Central and South America. First-stage larvae have never been detected in stools. Therefore, a parasite-specific IgG ELISA was evaluated for the determination of the acute phase of infection. The specificity and the sensitivity of the immunoassay was shown to be 76.2% and 91.1%, respectively. Eight serum samples taken from patients with histopathological diagnosis, at different time points (3 to 15 months) after surgical treatment, showed a sharp and early decline in antibody reactivity. The titration of anti-A. costaricensis antibodies has proved to be a useful method for the diagnosis of acute abdominal angiostrongyliasis.

Detection of Cryptosporidium - specific coproantigen in human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome patients by using a commercially available immunoenzymatic assay

The aim of this study was to verify the occurrence of Cryptosporidium infection in 52 human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) patients (group 1) and 38 clinically healthy individuals (group 2) by using enzyme immunoassay (EIA). All fecal samples collected were submitted to the Baermann, Lutz, and Ritchie methods, the Safranin/Methylene Blue, and Weber's chromotrope modified Trichrome staining techniques, and EIA. In group 1, parasitological staining techniques and EIA were both positive for Cryptosporidium sp. infection in 3/52 (5.8%) samples and both negative in 45/52 (86.5%) samples, while 4/52 (7.7%) samples were positive in EIA and negative in parasitological staining techniques. Concerning group 2, all samples were negative by EIA and microscopy for Cryptosporidium infection. In conclusion, EIA may be an alternative method for detecting Cryptosporidium-specific coproantigen in HIV/AIDS patients.

Evaluation of a PCR-RFLP assay for the identification of dermatophytes in situ

Dermatophytes are the main cause of superficial mycoses. These fungi have the capacity to invade keratinized tissue of humans or animals to produce infections that are generally restricted to the corneocytes of the skin, hair, and nails. Nevertheless, it is common to obtain negative results from fungal cultures of dermatological specimens where direct mycological examination showed fungal elements (30-40%). However, correct identification of the isolated dermatophytes from Tinea is important to choose the appropriate treatment. Therefore, we aim to develop a rapid polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) assay based on 28S rDNA that is able to identify dermatophytes species in positive dermatological samples. PCR-RFLP identification of dermatophytes in skin or hair allowed validation of the results obtained in culture. It was also possible to identify the infectious dermatophytes when direct hair/ skin mycological examination showed fungal elements, but negative results were obtained from fungal culture. As a conclusion, PCR methods may provide significant benefits in the rapid diagnosis of Tinea. First, there is an increase in sensitivity of dermatophytes identification when enough material is available. Secondly, identification of the infecting agent can be obtained in 24 hours with PCR-RFLP or sequencing, whereas results from fungal cultures can take 2-3 weeks.