Incorporating weather into regionwide safety planning prediction models

Predicting safety on roadways is standard practice for road safety professionals and has a corresponding extensive literature. The majority of safety prediction models are estimated using roadway segment and intersection (microscale) data, while more recently efforts have been undertaken to predict safety at the planning level (macroscale). Safety prediction models typically include roadway, operations, and exposure variables—factors known to affect safety in fundamental ways. Environmental variables, in particular variables attempting to capture the effect of rain on road safety, are difficult to obtain and have rarely been considered. In the few cases weather variables have been included, historical averages rather than actual weather conditions during which crashes are observed have been used. Without the inclusion of weather related variables researchers have had difficulty explaining regional differences in the safety performance of various entities (e.g. intersections, road segments, highways, etc.) As part of the NCHRP 8-44 research effort, researchers developed PLANSAFE, or planning level safety prediction models. These models make use of socio-economic, demographic, and roadway variables for predicting planning level safety. Accounting for regional differences - similar to the experience for microscale safety models - has been problematic during the development of planning level safety prediction models. More specifically, without weather related variables there is an insufficient set of variables for explaining safety differences across regions and states. Furthermore, omitted variable bias resulting from excluding these important variables may adversely impact the coefficients of included variables, thus contributing to difficulty in model interpretation and accuracy. This paper summarizes the results of an effort to include weather related variables, particularly various measures of rainfall, into accident frequency prediction and the prediction of the frequency of fatal and/or injury degree of severity crash models. The purpose of the study was to determine whether these variables do in fact improve overall goodness of fit of the models, whether these variables may explain some or all of observed regional differences, and identifying the estimated effects of rainfall on safety. The models are based on Traffic Analysis Zone level datasets from Michigan, and Pima and Maricopa Counties in Arizona. Numerous rain-related variables were found to be statistically significant, selected rain related variables improved the overall goodness of fit, and inclusion of these variables reduced the portion of the model explained by the constant in the base models without weather variables. Rain tends to diminish safety, as expected, in fairly complex ways, depending on rain frequency and intensity.

A simultaneous equations model of crash frequency by collision type for rural intersections

Safety at roadway intersections is of significant interest to transportation professionals due to the large number of intersections in transportation networks, the complexity of traffic movements at these locations that leads to large numbers of conflicts, and the wide variety of geometric and operational features that define them. A variety of collision types including head-on, sideswipe, rear-end, and angle crashes occur at intersections. While intersection crash totals may not reveal a site deficiency, over exposure of a specific crash type may reveal otherwise undetected deficiencies. Thus, there is a need to be able to model the expected frequency of crashes by collision type at intersections to enable the detection of problems and the implementation of effective design strategies and countermeasures. Statistically, it is important to consider modeling collision type frequencies simultaneously to account for the possibility of common unobserved factors affecting crash frequencies across crash types. In this paper, a simultaneous equations model of crash frequencies by collision type is developed and presented using crash data for rural intersections in Georgia. The model estimation results support the notion of the presence of significant common unobserved factors across crash types, although the impact of these factors on parameter estimates is found to be rather modest.

Forecasting crashes at the planning level: Simultaneous negative binomial crash model applied in Tucson, Arizona

At least two important transportation planning activities rely on planning-level crash prediction models. One is motivated by the Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century, which requires departments of transportation and metropolitan planning organizations to consider safety explicitly in the transportation planning process. The second could arise from a need for state agencies to establish incentive programs to reduce injuries and save lives. Both applications require a forecast of safety for a future period. Planning-level crash prediction models for the Tucson, Arizona, metropolitan region are presented to demonstrate the feasibility of such models. Data were separated into fatal, injury, and property-damage crashes. To accommodate overdispersion in the data, negative binomial regression models were applied. To accommodate the simultaneity of fatality and injury crash outcomes, simultaneous estimation of the models was conducted. All models produce crash forecasts at the traffic analysis zone level. Statistically significant (p-values < 0.05) and theoretically meaningful variables for the fatal crash model included population density, persons 17 years old or younger as a percentage of the total population, and intersection density. Significant variables for the injury and property-damage crash models were population density, number of employees, intersections density, percentage of miles of principal arterial, percentage of miles of minor arterials, and percentage of miles of urban collectors. Among several conclusions it is suggested that planning-level safety models are feasible and may play a role in future planning activities. However, caution must be exercised with such models.

Differences in the performance of safety performance functions estimated for total crash count and for crash count by crash type

In recent years the development and use of crash prediction models for roadway safety analyses have received substantial attention. These models, also known as safety performance functions (SPFs), relate the expected crash frequency of roadway elements (intersections, road segments, on-ramps) to traffic volumes and other geometric and operational characteristics. A commonly practiced approach for applying intersection SPFs is to assume that crash types occur in fixed proportions (e.g., rear-end crashes make up 20% of crashes, angle crashes 35%, and so forth) and then apply these fixed proportions to crash totals to estimate crash frequencies by type. As demonstrated in this paper, such a practice makes questionable assumptions and results in considerable error in estimating crash proportions. Through the use of rudimentary SPFs based solely on the annual average daily traffic (AADT) of major and minor roads, the homogeneity-in-proportions assumption is shown not to hold across AADT, because crash proportions vary as a function of both major and minor road AADT. For example, with minor road AADT of 400 vehicles per day, the proportion of intersecting-direction crashes decreases from about 50% with 2,000 major road AADT to about 15% with 82,000 AADT. Same-direction crashes increase from about 15% to 55% for the same comparison. The homogeneity-in-proportions assumption should be abandoned, and crash type models should be used to predict crash frequency by crash type. SPFs that use additional geometric variables would only exacerbate the problem quantified here. Comparison of models for different crash types using additional geometric variables remains the subject of future research.

Modeling crash outcome probabilities at rural intersections: Application of hierarchical binomial logistic models

It is important to examine the nature of the relationships between roadway, environmental, and traffic factors and motor vehicle crashes, with the aim to improve the collective understanding of causal mechanisms involved in crashes and to better predict their occurrence. Statistical models of motor vehicle crashes are one path of inquiry often used to gain these initial insights. Recent efforts have focused on the estimation of negative binomial and Poisson regression models (and related deviants) due to their relatively good fit to crash data. Of course analysts constantly seek methods that offer greater consistency with the data generating mechanism (motor vehicle crashes in this case), provide better statistical fit, and provide insight into data structure that was previously unavailable. One such opportunity exists with some types of crash data, in particular crash-level data that are collected across roadway segments, intersections, etc. It is argued in this paper that some crash data possess hierarchical structure that has not routinely been exploited. This paper describes the application of binomial multilevel models of crash types using 548 motor vehicle crashes collected from 91 two-lane rural intersections in the state of Georgia. Crash prediction models are estimated for angle, rear-end, and sideswipe (both same direction and opposite direction) crashes. The contributions of the paper are the realization of hierarchical data structure and the application of a theoretically appealing and suitable analysis approach for multilevel data, yielding insights into intersection-related crashes by crash type.

Development of accident prediction models for rural highway intersections

A study was done to develop macrolevel crash prediction models that can be used to understand and identify effective countermeasures for improving signalized highway intersections and multilane stop-controlled highway intersections in rural areas. Poisson and negative binomial regression models were fit to intersection crash data from Georgia, California, and Michigan. To assess the suitability of the models, several goodness-of-fit measures were computed. The statistical models were then used to shed light on the relationships between crash occurrence and traffic and geometric features of the rural signalized intersections. The results revealed that traffic flow variables significantly affected the overall safety performance of the intersections regardless of intersection type and that the geometric features of intersections varied across intersection type and also influenced crash type.

Crash risk estimation and assessment tool

Currently in Australia, there are no decision support tools for traffic and transport engineers to assess the crash risk potential of proposed road projects at design level. A selection of equivalent tools already exists for traffic performance assessment, e.g. aaSIDRA or VISSIM. The Urban Crash Risk Assessment Tool (UCRAT) was developed for VicRoads by ARRB Group to promote methodical identification of future crash risks arising from proposed road infrastructure, where safety cannot be evaluated based on past crash history. The tool will assist practitioners with key design decisions to arrive at the safest and the most cost -optimal design options. This paper details the development and application of UCRAT software. This professional tool may be used to calculate an expected mean number of casualty crashes for an intersection, a road link or defined road network consisting of a number of such elements. The mean number of crashes provides a measure of risk associated with the proposed functional design and allows evaluation of alternative options. The tool is based on historical data for existing road infrastructure in metropolitan Melbourne and takes into account the influence of key design features, traffic volumes, road function and the speed environment. Crash prediction modelling and risk assessment approaches were combined to develop its unique algorithms. The tool has application in such projects as road access proposals associated with land use developments, public transport integration projects and new road corridor upgrade proposals.

Urban informatics

The increasing ubiquity of digital technology, internet ser-vices and social media in our everyday lives allows for a seamless transitioning between the visible and the invisible infrastructure of cities: road systems, building complexes, information and communication technology, and people networks create a buzzing environment that is alive and exciting. Driven by curiosity, initiative and interdiscipli-nary exchange, the Urban Informatics Research Lab at Queensland University of Technology (QUT), Brisbane, Australia, is an emerging cluster of people interested in research and development at the intersection of people, place and technology with a focus on cities, locative media and mobile technology. This paper seeks to define, for the first time, what we mean by ‘urban informatics’ and outline its significance as a field of study today. It describes the relevant background and trends in each of the areas of peo-ple, place and technology, and highlights the relevance of urban informatics to the concerns and evolving challenges of CSCW. We then position our work in academia juxta-posed with related research concentrations and labels, fol-lowed by a discussion of disciplinary influences. The paper concludes with an exposé of the three current research themes of the lab around augmented urban spaces, urban narratives, and environmental sustainability in order to illustrate specific cases and methods, and to draw out distinctions that our affiliation with the Creative Industries Faculty affords.

Strategic entrepreneurship in New Zealand's state-owned enterprises : underlying elements and financial implications

The concept of strategic entrepreneurship has received increased attention over the past ten yeras. Viewed as the intersection of entrepreneurship and strategy this field of research is populated by conceptual studies which focus mainly on the nature and perceived benefits of strategic entrepreneurship. Similarly the study of entrepreneurship in a public sector context has gained increasing support in recent years but also remains underexplored. To address these gaps this thesis considers : what are the underlying elements and financial implications of strategic entrepreneurship in New Zealand's state-owned enterprises, New Zealand's SOE sector comprising 17 government-owned,commercially focused organisations, is considered to be a prime subject for this research. Well known for their implementation of new public management, many New Zealand SOEs have also been publicly recognised as both innovative and entrepreneurial. The research question is addressed by first developing a preliminary framework of strategic entrepreneurship from literature on entrepreneurhsip and strategy. The framework is then examined in the context of case studies on activity.

Research adventures in Web 2.0 : encouraging collaborative local content creation through edgeX

The intersection of current arguments about the role of creative industries in economic development, online user-generated content, and the uptake of broadband in economically disadvantaged communities provides the content for this article. From 2006 to 2008 the authors carried out a research project in Ipswich, Queensland involving local creative practitioners and community groups in their development of edgeX, a Web-based platform for content uploads and social networking. The project aimed to explore issues of local identity and community building through online networking, as well as the possibilities for creating pathways from amateur to professional practice in the creative industries through the auspices of the Website. Set against the backdrop of a rapidly changing technological environment that has problematic implications for research projects aiming to build new online platforms, we present several case studies from the project to illustrate the challenges to participation experienced by people with limited access to, and literacy with, the Internet.

AITPM national newsletter president's report April 2010

Well, it has been Clem 7 month here in Brisbane and my impression is “so far, so good!” For those of you who know Brisbane, the four lane twin Clem Jones Tunnel (M7) is approximately 4.5km long, and connects Ipswich Road (A7) at the Princess Alexandra Hospital on the south side with Bowen Bridge Road (A3) at the Royal Brisbane Hospital on the north side. There are also south access ramps to the Pacific Motorway and east access ramps to Shafston Avenue (headed to/from Wynnum). Brisbanites have been enjoying a three week no-toll taste test, and I paced through it one evening with minimal fuss. The tunnel seems to have eased the congestion at the Stanley Street on-ramp to the Pacific Motorway quite a bit, and Ipswich Road – Main Street through the ‘Gabba. One must watch the signage carefully, but once we get used to the infrastructure, this will not likely be problematic. It will be interesting to see how traffic behaves when the system settles after tolling, which has likely commenced by the time you’re reading. I believe a passenger car toll is about $4.20 one way but saves about 24 signalised intersection pass-throughs.

The art of careful listening : children as co-artists in the making of live performance

Since 2007 Kite Arts Education Program (KITE), based at Queensland Performing Arts Centre (QPAC), has been engaged in delivering a series of theatre-based experiences for children in low socio-economic primary schools in Queensland. The twelve-week workshop experience culminates in a performance developed by the children with the assistance of the teacher artists from KITE for their community and parents/carers in a peak community cultural institution. Using Wartella’s notion of the socially competent child this analysis interrogates the performance product Precious, child participation modes, the intersection between the professional artists, teacher artists and child artists and outcomes in terms of building capacities for the development of social competencies in children.

Noir and the urban imaginary

Noir and the Urban Imaginary is creative practice based PhD research comprising critical analysis (40%) exegesis (10%) and a twenty-six minute film, The Brisbane Line (50%). The research investigates intersection of four elements; the city, the cinema, history and postmodernity. The thesis discusses relationships between each of the four elements and what cinematic representation of cities reveals about modern and postmodern urban experience and historicisation. Key concepts in the research include, 'urbanism', 'historiography', 'modernity', 'postmodernity', 'neo-noir'.

Urban informatics, ubiquitous computing and social media for healthy cities

The increasing ubiquity of digital technology, internet services and location-aware applications in our everyday lives allows for a seamless transitioning between the visible and the invisible infrastructure of cities: road systems, building complexes, information and communication technology, and people networks create a buzzing environment that is alive and exciting. Driven by curiosity, initiative and interdisciplinary exchange, the Urban Informatics Research Lab at Queensland University of Technology (QUT), Brisbane, Australia, is an emerging cluster of people interested in research and development at the intersection of people, place and technology with a focus on cities, locative media and mobile technology. This paper introduces urban informatics as a transdisciplinary practice across people, place and technology that can aid local governments, urban designers and planners in creating responsive and inclusive urban spaces and nurturing healthy cities. Three challenges are being discussed. First, people, and the challenge of creativity explores the opportunities and challenges of urban informatics that can lead to the design and development of new tools, methods and applications fostering participation, the democratisation of knowledge, and new creative practices. Second, technology, and the challenge of innovation examines how urban informatics can be applied to support user-led innovation with a view to promote entrepreneurial ideas and creative industries. Third, place, and the challenge of engagement discusses the potential to establish places within cities that are dedicated to place-based applications of urban informatics with a view to deliver community and civic engagement strategies.

Critical gap estimation by numerical and statistical highest likelihood search

Many traffic situations require drivers to cross or merge into a stream having higher priority. Gap acceptance theory enables us to model such processes to analyse traffic operation. This discussion demonstrated that numerical search fine tuned by statistical analysis can be used to determine the most likely critical gap for a sample of drivers, based on their largest rejected gap and accepted gap. This method shares some common features with the Maximum Likelihood Estimation technique (Troutbeck 1992) but lends itself well to contemporary analysis tools such as spreadsheet and is particularly analytically transparent. This method is considered not to bias estimation of critical gap due to very small rejected gaps or very large rejected gaps. However, it requires a sufficiently large sample that there is reasonable representation of largest rejected gap/accepted gap pairs within a fairly narrow highest likelihood search band.