Growth, increasing returns, and public infrastructure : time series evidence

Initial endogenous growth models emphasized the importance of external effects and increasing retums in explaining growth. Empirically, this hypothesis can be confumed if the coefficient of physical capital per hour is unity in the aggregate production function. Previous estimates using time series data rejected this hypothesis, although cross-country estimates did nol The problem lies with the techniques employed, which are unable to capture low-frequency movements of high-frequency data. Using cointegration, new time series evidence confum the theory and conform to cross-country evidence. The implied Solow residual, which takes into account externaI effects to aggregate capital, has its behavior analyzed. The hypothesis that it is explained by government expenditures on infrasttucture is confIrmed. This suggests a supply-side role for government affecting productivity.

Underpricing of equity offerings in Brazil

We examine the underpricing of twenty-seven IPOs and twenty-nine SEOs issued in Brazil from January 1999 to March 2006. Determinants on pre-market demand, underwriting activities and information asymmetry were discussed. Common characteristics seem to exist between all issues. 94% have been on premium market corporate level and 93% were realized via bookbuilding. Underpricing for IPOs and SEOs has been recorded at 9.6% and 3.6%, respectively. IPOs are more underpriced when (i) more informed investors receive shares, (ii)better ranked underwriters lead the offer, and (iii) there is positive revision in the final price compared to the initial price range defined before information disclosure. SEOs are more underpriced when (i) shares presents higher appreciation in pre-offer period, and (ii) the proportion of primary offers are larger, supporting adverse selection costs theory.

Public debt sustainability and endogenous seigniorage in Brazil: time-series evidence from 1947-92: revised version

Using national accounts data for the revenue-GDP and expenditureGDP ratios from 1947 to 1992, we examine three central issues in public finance. First, was the path of public debt sustainable during this period? Second, if debt is sustainable, how has the government historically balanced the budget after shocks to either revenues or expenditures? Third, are expenditures exogenous? The results show that (i) public deficit is stationary (bounded asymptotic variance), with the budget in Brazil being balanced almost entirely through changes in taxes, regardless of the cause of the initial imbalance. Expenditures are weakly exogenous, but tax revenues are not; (ii) the behavior of a rational Brazilian consumer may be consistent with Ricardian Equivalence; (iii) seigniorage revenues are critical to restore intertemporal budget equilibrium, since, when we exclude them from total revenues, debt is not sustainable in econometric tests.

MIGRATION MEASUREMENTS FROM PLASTIC PACKAGING: A SIMULATION STUDY ON INFLUENCE OF INITIAL CONCENTRATION PROFILE

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Initial concentration profile influence on migration measurements from plastic packaging: A simulation study

Migration of components from plastic packaging into foodstuffs or into medicines is a very important issue, concerning public health. Using experimental techniques, like gas chromatography-mass spectrometry, these essays measure total migration and specific migration of components from plastic packaging. This work presents an explanation and applications of a numerical technique tool for this measurement, allowing the comprehension of the diffusion process and the estimate of component migration in difficult or impractical measurements. As an application example, the non-uniform influence of initial concentration profile on the migration is presented, demonstrating the necessity of this profile determination for high quality considerations on involved metrology.

Preschool children and excess weight: the impact of a low complexity intervention in public day care centers

Introduction: childhood obesity is a major public health problem, affecting children even at early ages. Objective: to assess the impact of dietary intervention and relatively simple physical activity on the nutritional state of preschoolers. Method: this was an intervention study in public daycare centers targeting children from 2 to 4 years of age, in the State of São Paulo. The sample consisted of 9 daycare centers covering 578 children, with 264 children in the intervention group (IG) and 314 in the comparison group (CG). Intervention was focused on modifications in diet and physical activity, avoiding overloading the routine of daycare centers, for duration of one year. A zBMI score > 1 (zBMI) and < 2 was considered risk of being overweight, and > 2 zBMI was considered excess weight (overweight and obese). Analysis was done by frequency calculations, comparisons of proportions by χ2, mean comparisons by t-student and calculations according to Pearson’s correlation coefficient. Results: IG showed an inverse correlation between the initial zBMI of the children and the difference with the zBMI at the end of the intervention (rP = -0.39, p <0.0001). The mean difference of zBMI of the overweight children in IG between the beginning and the end of the study period was negative (-0.46 z score), indicating weight reduction, while the children in the CG was positive (+0. 17 z score) (p = 0.0037). Conclusion: intervention in diet and physical activity in overweight preschool children in daycare centers could have a favorable impact on the evolution of their nutritional state.

Physics teachers initial education and professional performance: what do future teachers have to say?

This research deals with the discussion about Physics teachers’ undergraduate education and professional performance related to the knowledge acquired during this initial education. More specifically, we try to answer questions like: How do future teachers evaluate the knowledge acquired during their initial education as in terms of specific knowledge as pedagogical knowledge? What are their formative needs and future expectatives about professional performance and the school teaching environment? Data was constituted from a sample of 26 future high school physics teachers, one semester long, that were taking the supervised curricular training in a undergraduate Physics education program (called Licenciatura in Brazil), in São Paulo State public university. Besides the final report of this training, future teachers were asked to answer a questionnaire aiming to take their conceptions about their initial education program, their formative needs, future professional expectatives and high school teaching environment. According to the future teachers, the program they were about to finish was satisfactory in terms of Physics specific contents; however, about the pedagogical content knowledge and the pedagogical practice, they showed to be unsatisfied and insecure. The majority of the questionnaire responses demonstrated that they feel lack of teaching experience. Moreover, teachers emphasize other factors related to the future professional performance: possible difficulties to deal with students’ indiscipline, schools’ bad physical structure, limited number of Physics classes in high school level, lack of didactical laboratories and also they seem to be frightened that the expertise teachers do not be collaborative with the new ones. In this sense, the research outcomes shows the necessity of discussions about questions involving teachers knowledge, related to either, the Physics conceptual domain and the pedagogical one, since it matters directly to future teachers professional performance. Discussions in this sense can also help evaluation and restructuration of programs designed to initial and continuous teachers’ education.

Contributions of ergonomics to the construction of bus drivers health and excellence in public transport and at work

This article is the product of research that analyzed the work of bus drivers of a public transportation company that is considered a benchmark reference in its field of operations, in which it strives to achieve operating excellence. Within this context, the authors sought to understand how such a company has managed to maintain a policy that is capable of reconciling quality public transport while also providing working conditions compatible with the professional development, comfort and health of its workers. Ergonomic work analysis and activity analysis were the guiding elements used in this study. Initial analyses indicate that the activity of drivers includes serving a population and providing mobility for it, which depends on driving the vehicle itself and on relationships with colleagues, users, pedestrians, drivers and others.

Frequency and predictors of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage after intravenous thrombolysis for acute ischemic stroke in a Brazilian public hospital

OBJECTIVE: Scarce data are available on the occurrence of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage related to intravenous thrombolysis for acute stroke in South America. We aimed to address the frequency and clinical predictors of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage after stroke thrombolysis at our tertiary emergency unit in Brazil. METHOD: We reviewed the clinical and radiological data of 117 consecutive acute ischemic stroke patients treated with intravenous thrombolysis in our hospital between May 2001 and April 2010. We compared our results with those of the Safe Implementation of Thrombolysis in Stroke registry. Univariate and multiple regression analyses were performed to identify factors associated with symptomatic intracranial transformation. RESULTS: In total, 113 cases from the initial sample were analyzed. The median National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score was 16 (interquartile range: 10-20). The median onset-to-treatment time was 188 minutes (interquartile range: 155-227). There were seven symptomatic intracranial hemorrhages (6.2%; Safe Implementation of Thrombolysis in Stroke registry: 4.9%; p = 0.505). In the univariate analysis, current statin treatment and elevated National Institute of Health Stroke Scale scores were related to symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage. After the multivariate analysis, current statin treatment was the only factor independently associated with symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage. CONCLUSIONS: In this series of Brazilian patients with severe strokes treated with intravenous thrombolysis in a public university hospital at a late treatment window, we found no increase in the rate of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage. Additional studies are necessary to clarify the possible association between statins and the risk of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage after stroke thrombolysis.

A comparison of initial antiretroviral therapy in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study and the recommendations of the International AIDS Society-USA

In order to facilitate and improve the use of antiretroviral therapy (ART), international recommendations are released and updated regularly. We aimed to study if adherence to the recommendations is associated with better treatment outcomes in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS).

Public-health and individual approaches to antiretroviral therapy: township South Africa and Switzerland compared

BACKGROUND: The provision of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in resource-limited settings follows a public health approach, which is characterised by a limited number of regimens and the standardisation of clinical and laboratory monitoring. In industrialized countries doctors prescribe from the full range of available antiretroviral drugs, supported by resistance testing and frequent laboratory monitoring. We compared virologic response, changes to first-line regimens, and mortality in HIV-infected patients starting HAART in South Africa and Switzerland. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We analysed data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study and two HAART programmes in townships of Cape Town, South Africa. We included treatment-naïve patients aged 16 y or older who had started treatment with at least three drugs since 2001, and excluded intravenous drug users. Data from a total of 2,348 patients from South Africa and 1,016 patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study were analysed. Median baseline CD4+ T cell counts were 80 cells/mul in South Africa and 204 cells/mul in Switzerland. In South Africa, patients started with one of four first-line regimens, which was subsequently changed in 514 patients (22%). In Switzerland, 36 first-line regimens were used initially, and these were changed in 539 patients (53%). In most patients HIV-1 RNA was suppressed to 500 copies/ml or less within one year: 96% (95% confidence interval [CI] 95%-97%) in South Africa and 96% (94%-97%) in Switzerland, and 26% (22%-29%) and 27% (24%-31%), respectively, developed viral rebound within two years. Mortality was higher in South Africa than in Switzerland during the first months of HAART: adjusted hazard ratios were 5.90 (95% CI 1.81-19.2) during months 1-3 and 1.77 (0.90-3.50) during months 4-24. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to the highly individualised approach in Switzerland, programmatic HAART in South Africa resulted in similar virologic outcomes, with relatively few changes to initial regimens. Further innovation and resources are required in South Africa to both achieve more timely access to HAART and improve the prognosis of patients who start HAART with advanced disease.

The adherence to initial processes of care in elderly patients with acute venous thromboembolism.

BACKGROUND We aimed to assess whether elderly patients with acute venous thromboembolism (VTE) receive recommended initial processes of care and to identify predictors of process adherence. METHODS We prospectively studied in- and outpatients aged ≥65 years with acute symptomatic VTE in a multicenter cohort study from nine Swiss university- and non-university hospitals between September 2009 and March 2011. We systematically assessed whether initial processes of care, which are recommended by the 2008 American College of Chest Physicians guidelines, were performed in each patient. We used multivariable logistic models to identify patient factors independently associated with process adherence. RESULTS Our cohort comprised 950 patients (mean age 76 years). Of these, 86% (645/750) received parenteral anticoagulation for ≥5 days, 54% (405/750) had oral anticoagulation started on the first treatment day, and 37% (274/750) had an international normalized ratio (INR) ≥2 for ≥24 hours before parenteral anticoagulation was discontinued. Overall, 35% (53/153) of patients with cancer received low-molecular-weight heparin monotherapy and 72% (304/423) of patients with symptomatic deep vein thrombosis were prescribed compression stockings. In multivariate analyses, symptomatic pulmonary embolism, hospital-acquired VTE, and concomitant antiplatelet therapy were associated with a significantly lower anticoagulation-related process adherence. CONCLUSIONS Adherence to several recommended processes of care was suboptimal in elderly patients with VTE. Quality of care interventions should particularly focus on processes with low adherence, such as the prescription of continued low-molecular-weight heparin therapy in patients with cancer and the achievement of an INR ≥2 for ≥24 hours before parenteral anticoagulants are stopped.

Adapting public agricultural extension services to climate change: Insights from Kenya

This paper analyses the adaptiveness of the Public Agricultural Extension Services (PAES) to climate change. Existing literature, interviews and group discussions among PAES actors in larger Makueni district, Kenya, provided the data for the analyses. The findings show that the PAES already have various elements of adaptiveness in its policies, approaches and methods of extension provision. However, the hierarchical structure of the PAES does not augur well for self-organisation at local levels of extension provision, especially under conditions of abrupt change which climate change might trigger. Most importantly, adpativeness presupposes adaptive capacity but the lack of resources in terms of funding for extension, limited mobility of extension officers, the low extension staff/farmer ratio, the aging of extension staff and significant dependence on donor funding limits the adaptiveness of the PAES. Accordingly criteria and indicators were identified in literature with which an initial assessement of the adaptiiveneess of PAES was conducted. However this assessment framework needs to be improved and future steps will integrate more specific inputs from actors in PAES in order to make the framework operational.

Constraining age distributions of groundwater from public supply wells in diverse hydrogeological settings in Scania, Sweden

Twenty-five public supply wells throughout the hydrogeologically diverse region of Scania, southern Sweden are subjected to environmental tracer analysis (³H–³He,⁴He, CFCs, SF₆ and for one well only also ⁸⁵Kr and ³⁹Ar) to study well and aquifer vulnerability and evaluate possibilities of groundwater age distribution assessment. We find CFC and SF₆ concentrations well above solubility equilibrium with modern atmosphere, indicating local contamination, as well as indications of CFC degradation. The tracer-specific complications considerably constrain possibilities for sound quantitative regional ground- water age distribution assessment and demonstrate the importance of initial qualitative assessment of tracer-specific reliability, as well a need for additional, complementary tracers (e.g. ⁸⁵Kr,³⁹Ar and potentially also ¹⁴C). Lumped parameter modelling yields credible age distribution assessments for representative wells in four type aquifers. Pollution vulnerability of the aquifer types was based on the selected LPM models and qualitative age characterisation. Most vulnerable are unconfined dual porosity and fractured bedrock aquifers, due to a large component of very young groundwater. Unconfined sedimentary aquifers are vulnerable due to young groundwater and a small pre-modern component. Less vulnerable are semi-confined sedimentary or dual-porosity aquifers, due to older age of the modern component and a larger pre-modern component. Confined aquifers appear least vulnerable, due an entirely pre-modern groundwater age distribution (recharged before 1963). Tracer complications aside, environmental tracer analyses and lumped parameter modelling aid in vulnerability assessment and protection of regional groundwater resources.