Generalized linear and generalized additive models in studies of species distributions: setting the scene

An important statistical development of the last 30 years has been the advance in regression analysis provided by generalized linear models (GLMs) and generalized additive models (GAMs). Here we introduce a series of papers prepared within the framework of an international workshop entitled: Advances in GLMs/GAMs modeling: from species distribution to environmental management, held in Riederalp, Switzerland, 6-11 August 2001.We first discuss some general uses of statistical models in ecology, as well as provide a short review of several key examples of the use of GLMs and GAMs in ecological modeling efforts. We next present an overview of GLMs and GAMs, and discuss some of their related statistics used for predictor selection, model diagnostics, and evaluation. Included is a discussion of several new approaches applicable to GLMs and GAMs, such as ridge regression, an alternative to stepwise selection of predictors, and methods for the identification of interactions by a combined use of regression trees and several other approaches. We close with an overview of the papers and how we feel they advance our understanding of their application to ecological modeling.

L'hémodialyse intermittente aux soins intensifs = [Intermittent hemodialysis in the intensive care setting]

Acute renal failure is a frequent and potentially lethal disease in intensive care units. Renal replacement therapy (RRT) is often required. Either intermittent or continuous methods of RRT can be used. When to start a RRT and which method to use is not always clearly defined and a global evaluation of the clinical situation is required. The choice of the modality of RRT will be up to the general clinical context, hemodynamic stability, the type of molecules to be cleared and the haemorrhagic risk as much as habits and available resources. No study currently showed a superiority of either continuous or intermittent renal replacement therapy. The collaboration between intensive care specialists and nephrologists allows an optimized choice for a given patient and allow better move from one technic to another if required.

Influence of the quality of nursing on the duration of weaning from mechanical ventilation in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the influence of nursing on the duration of weaning from mechanical ventilation in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. DESIGN: Data were collected prospectively over a 1-yr period (study year) and compared with previously collected prospective data recorded in our chronic obstructive pulmonary disease database during a 5-yr period. SETTING: The medical intensive care unit (ICU) of a university hospital. PATIENTS: Eighty-seven patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Fifteen patients had chronic obstructive pulmonary disease that required mechanical ventilation for acute exacerbation of their disease (study year), and 72 were patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease from the previously collected data. INTERVENTIONS: The ICU course (duration of mechanical ventilation, mortality) was recorded, as well as several respiratory parameters (pulmonary function tests and arterial blood gases in stable conditions, and nutritional status), and they were compared with an "index of nursing." MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: We developed an "index of nursing", comparing the effective workforce of the nurses (number and qualifications) with the ideal workforce required by the number of patients and the severity of their diseases. A value of 1.0 represented a perfect match between the needed and the effectively present nurses, whereas a lesser value signified a diminished available workforce. This index was compared with the complications and duration of weaning from mechanical ventilation. During the first 5 yrs, the duration of mechanical ventilation increased progressively from 7.3 +/- 8.0 to 38.2 +/- 25.8 days (p = .006). A significant inverse correlation between the duration of mechanical ventilation and the nursing index (p = .025) was found. In the sixth comparative year, the number of nurses increased (nursing index = 1.05) and the duration of mechanical ventilation decreased to 9.9 +/- 13 days (p < .001, yr 5 vs. yr 6). CONCLUSIONS: The quality of nursing appears to be a measurable and critical factor in the weaning from mechanical ventilation of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Below a threshold in the available workforce of ICU nurses, the weaning duration of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease increases dramatically. Therefore, very close attention should be given to the education and number of ICU nurses.

Setting up a Common European Asylum System : Report on the application of existing instruments and proposals for the new system

The study assesses firstly the evaluation process of the first generation of asylum instruments while underlining the possibilities to improve it. It analyses secondly the asylum "acquis" regarding distribution of refugees between Member States, the eligibility for protection, the status of protected persons regarding detention and vulnerability, asylum procedures and the external dimension by formulating short-term recommendations of each area. Its last part is devoted to the long term evolution of the Common European Asylum System regarding the legal context including the accession of the EU to the Geneva Convention, the institutional perspectives including the new European Support Office, the jurisdictional perspective, the substantive perspective, the distributive perspective and the external perspective.

Clinical characteristics and outcome of patients admitted to a medico-surgical ICU requiring non invasive ventilation (NIV) for hypercapnic respiratory failure

Introduction: Because it decreases intubation rate and mortality, NIV has become first-line treatment in case of hypercapnic respiratory failure (HRF). Whether this approach is equally successful for all categories of HRF patients is however debated. We assessed if any clinical characteristics of HRF patients were associated with NIV intensity, success, and outcome, in order to identify prognostic factors. Methods: Retrospective analysis of the clinical database (clinical information system and MDSi) of patients consecutively admitted to our medico-surgical ICU, presenting with HRF (defined as PaCO2 >50 mm Hg), and receiving NIV between January 2009 and December 2010. Demographic data, medical diagnoses (including documented chronic lung disease), reason for ICU hospitalization, recent surgical interventions, SAPS II and McCabe scores were extracted from the database. Total duration of NIV and the need for tracheal intubation during the 5 days following the first hypercapnia documentation, as well as ICU and hospital mortality were recorded. Results are reported as median [IQR]. Comparisons with Chi2 or Kruskal-Wallis tests, p <0.05 (*). Results: 164 patients were included, 45 (27.4%) of whom were intubated after 10 [2-34] hours, after having received 7 [2-19] hours of NIV. NIV successful patients received 15 [5-22] hours of NIV for up to 5 days. Intubation was correlated with increased ICU (20% vs. 3%, p <0.001) and hospital (46.7% vs. 30.2, p >0.05) mortality. Conclusions: A majority of patients requiring NIV for hypercapnic respiratory failure in our ICU have no diagnosed chronic pulmonary disease. These patients tend to have increased ICUand hospital mortality. The majority of patients were non-surgical, a feature correlated with increased hospital mortality. Beside usual predictors of severity such as age and SAPS II, absence of diagnosed chronic pulmonary disease and non-operative state appear to be associated with increased mortality. Further studies should explore whether these patients are indeed more prone to an adverse outcome and which therapeutic strategies might contribute to alter this course.

La Representación del movimiento social anti-desahucios en la prensa española : una perspectva de agenda-setting

Aunque hasta este momento se abundan estudios acerca de los movimientos sociales, la mayoría se aborda desde los propios movimientos y investigar los movimientos que se desarrollan y alcanzan una magnitud increíble mediante las redes sociales ocupa una posición imprescindible en este tipo de la investigación, mientras que realizar un estudio sobre los movimientos sociales a través de los medios tradicionales y oficiales carece de atención de los investigadores. Por esta razón, tomo el caso del movimiento antidesahucios como un ejemplo clàsico para examinar los movimientos sociales desde la perspectiva mediàtica, es decir, la perspectiva de agenda-setting

Utilité des biomarqueurs du sepsis en réanimation [Usefulness of biomarkers of sepsis in the ICU].

Despite some progress, the mortality of severe sepsis and septic shock remains high. Immunotherapy directed against inflammatory mediators failed, but new treatments more specifically tailored to individual situations are actively investigated. C-reactive protein (CRP) and procalcitonin (PCT) have not demonstrated to be useful for individual prognostic stratification. New biomarkers such as pancreatic stone protein (PSP) or growth arrest specific protein 6 (Gas6) could improve this prediction. Combined with the clinical course, "PCT" allows to tailor individually the duration of antibiotic therapy in ICU patients. This still contested innovative approach significantly reduces overall exposure to antibiotics.

L'orientation du patient souffrant d'un syndrome douloureux abdominal aigu a domicile [Hospitalisation criteria for the acute abdominal pain patient seen at home or in an ambulatory setting].

Dealing at patient's home with an acute abdominal pain may be particularly challenging for the primary care physician. In such a clinical situation, the part of laboratory and radiological investigations is increasing in the diagnostic process. The decision to keep the patient at home based on a clinical evaluation alone may represent a great medical responsibility for the physician. Emergency departments (ED) are of course in charge of investigating such patients with a wide panel of investigation techniques. But these structures are chronically overcrowded resulting frequently in long and difficult periods of waiting. Based on a literature review, a description of useful clinical symptoms and signs is summarized and should help the decision process for the orientation of the patient.

Continuous electroencephalography in the medical intensive care unit.

OBJECTIVES: To examine predictors and the prognostic value of electrographic seizures (ESZs) and periodic epileptiform discharges (PEDs) in medical intensive care unit (MICU) patients without a primary acute neurologic condition. DESIGN: Retrospective study. SETTING: MICU in a university hospital. PATIENTS: A total of 201 consecutive patients admitted to the MICU between July 2004 and January 2007 without known acute neurologic injury and who underwent continuous electroencephalography monitoring (cEEG) for investigation of possible seizures or changes in mental status. INTERVENTION: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Median time from intensive care unit (ICU) admission to cEEG was 1 day (interquartile range 1-4). The majority of patients (60%) had sepsis as the primary admission diagnosis and 48% were comatose at the time of cEEG. Ten percent (n = 21) of patients had ESZs, 17% (n = 34) had PEDs, 5% (n = 10) had both, and 22% (n = 45) had either ESZs or PEDs. Seizures during cEEG were purely electrographic (no detectable clinical correlate) in the majority (67%) of patients. Patients with sepsis had a higher rate of ESZs or PEDs than those without sepsis (32% vs. 9%, p < 0.001). On multivariable analysis, sepsis at ICU admission was the only significant predictor of ESZs or PEDs (odds ratio 4.6, 95% confidence interval 1.9-12.7, p = 0.002). After controlling for age, coma, and organ dysfunction, the presence of ESZs or PEDs was associated with death or severe disability at hospital discharge (89% with ESZs or PEDs, vs. 39% if not; odds ratio 19.1, 95% confidence interval 6.3-74.6, p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: In this retrospective study of MICU patients monitored with cEEG, ESZs and PEDs were frequent, predominantly in patients with sepsis. Seizures were mainly nonconvulsive. Both seizures and periodic discharges were associated with poor outcome. Prospective studies are warranted to determine more precisely the frequency and clinical impact of nonconvulsive seizures and periodic discharges, particularly in septic patients.

An agenda-setting model of electoral competition

This paper presents a model of electoral competition focusing on the formation of thepublic agenda. An incumbent government and a challenger party in opposition competein elections by choosing the issues that will key out their campaigns. Giving salience toan issue implies proposing an innovative policy proposal, alternative to the status-quo.Parties trade off the issues with high salience in voters concerns and those with broadagreement on some alternative policy proposal. Each party expects a higher probabilityof victory if the issue it chooses becomes salient in the voters decision. But remarkably,the issues which are considered the most important ones by a majority of votes may notbe given salience during the electoral campaign. An incumbent government may survivein spite of its bad policy performance if there is no sufficiently broad agreement on apolicy alternative. We illustrate the analytical potential of the model with the case of theUnited States presidential election in 2004.