一个改进的随机动力学水平衡模型及其应用研究Ⅱ.应用

本文用黄土高原长武农业生态试验站的冬小麦长期定位试验资料对改进的随机动力学水平衡模型进行了准确性检验 .从模型对参数反映的敏感性分析和模型计算值与数值模型WAVES的比较 ,以及模型对黄土区旱作高生产力的水分环境效应的评价结果 ,均证明改进的随机动力学水平衡模型能比较准确地预测一定生产力水平、特定生态系统平衡体系水均衡要素的定量分配和土壤含水量的动态变化 .

Deformation Monitoring and Forecasting Model Study Based on Grey System Theory

The grey system theory studies the uncertainty of small sample size problems. This paper using grey system theory in the deformation monitoring field, based on analysis of present grey forecast models, developed the spatial multi-point model. By using residual modification, the spatial multi-point residual model eras developed in further study. Then, combined with the sedimentation data of Xiaolangdi Multipurpose Dam, the results are compared and analyzed, the conclusion has been made and the advantages of the residual spatial multi-point model has been proved.

Application of forecasting structural cracks technique of 3D move in Chengdao buried hill

3DMove software, based on the three-dimension structural model of geologic interpretation, can forecast reservoir cracks from the point of view of formation of the structural geology, and analyze the characteristics of the cracks. 3DMove software dominates in forecasting cracks. We forecast the developments and directions of the cracks in Chengbei buried hill with the application of forecasting technique in 3DMove software, and obtain the chart about strain distributing on top in buried hill and the chart about relative density and orientation and the chart about the analysis of crack unsealing. In Chengbei 30 buried hill zone, north-west and north-east and approximately east-west cracks in Cenozoic are very rich and the main directions in every fault block are different. Forecasting results that are also verified by those of drilling approximately accord with the data from well logging, the case of which shows that the technique has the better ability in forecasting cracks, and takes more effects on exploration and exploitation of crack reservoir beds in ancient buried hill reservoirs.

Distribution patterns of chlorophyll a in spring and autumn in association with hydrological features in the southern Yellow Sea and northern East China Sea

Two field studies were conducted to measure pigments in the Southern Yellow Sea (SYS) and the northern East China Sea (NECS) in April (spring) and September (autumn) to evaluate the distribution pattern of phytoplankton stock (Chl a concentration) and the impact of hydrological features such as water mass, mixing and tidal front on these patterns. The results indicated that the Chl a concentration was 2.43 +/- 2.64 (Mean +/- SD) mg m(-3) in April (range, 0.35 to 17.02 mg m(-3)) and 1.75 +/- 3.10 mg m(-3) in September (from 0.07 to 36.54 mg m(-3)) in 2003. Additionally, four areas with higher Chl a concentrations were observed in the surface water in April, while two were observed in September, and these areas were located within or near the point at which different water masses converged (temperature front area). The distribution pattern of Chl a was generally consistent between onshore and offshore stations at different depths in April and September. Specifically, higher Chl a concentrations were observed along the coastal line in September, which consisted of a mixing area and a tidal front area, although the distributional pattern of Chl a concentrations varied along transects in April. The maximum Chl a concentration at each station was observed in the surface and subsurface layer (0-10 m) for onshore stations and the thermocline layer (10-30 m) for offshore stations in September, while the greatest concentrations were generally observed in surface and subsurface water (0-10 m) in April. The formation of the Chl a distributional pattern in the SYS and NECS and its relationship with possible influencing factors is also discussed. Although physical forces had a close relationship with Chl a distribution, more data are required to clearly and comprehensively elucidate the spatial pattern dynamics of Chl a in the SYS and NECS.

降雨条件下碎石土滑坡稳定性研究

Debris Landslide is one of the types of landslides with the widest distribution, largest quantity, and the closest relationship with engineering construction. It is also one of the most important types of landslides that can cause disaster. This kind of landslide often occurs in the loose slopes which are made up of loose congeries formed by earth filling, residual soil, slope wash, dilapidation, landslide or full weathered material of hard rock. Rainfall is always the chief inducing factor of debris Landslide. Therefore, to research stability of debris Landslide during rainfall not only has important theoretical significance for understanding developing law and deformation and failure mechanism of debris landslide, but also has important practical significance for investigating, appraising, forecasting, preventing and controlling debris landslides. This thesis systematically summarized the relationships between rainfall and landslide, the method to survey water table in the landslides, the deformation and failure mechanism of debris landslide, and the progress in the stability analysis of landslides based on the analyses of data collected widely at home and abroad. The problems in the study of the stability of debris landslide during rainfall was reviewed and discussed. Due to the complicated geological conditions and the random rainfall conditions, the research on the landslides' stability must be based on engineering geological qualitative analysis. Through the collection of the data about the Panxi region and the Three Gorges Reservoir region, the author systematically summarized the engineering geological conditions, hydro-geological condition, distribution characteristics of stress field in the slope, physical and mechanical properties and hydro-mechanical properties of debris. In the viewpoint of dynamics of soil water and hydromechanics, physical process of rainfall to supply groundwater of debris landslides can be divided into two phases, i.e. non-saturated steady infiltrating phase and saturated unsteady supplying phase. The former can be described by mathematical model of surface water infiltration while the latter can be described by equivalent continuous medium model of groundwater seepage. With regard to specific hydrological geology system, we can obtain the dynamic variation law of water content, water table, landslide stability of rock and soil mass, along with quantity and duration of rainfall after the boundary condition on hydrological geology has been ascertained. This is a new way to study the response law of groundwater in the landslides during rainfall. After wet face of rock and soil mass connects with ground water table, the raising of water table will occur due to the supply of rainfall. Then interaction between ground water and rock and soil mass will occur, such as the action of physics, water, chemistry and mechanics, which caused the decrease of shearing strength of sliding zone. According to the action of groundwater on rock and soil mass, a concise mechanical model of debris landslide’s deformation was established during rainfall. The static equilibrium condition of landslide mass system was achieved according to the concise mechanical model, and then the typical deformation and failure process and failure mode of debris landslide during rainfall were discussed. In this thesis, the former limiting equilibrium slice method was modified and improved based on shearing strength theory of , a stability analysis program of debris landslide was established and developed taking account of the saturated-unsaturated seepage, by introducing the shearing strength theory of unsaturated soil mass made by (1978). The program has reasonable data storage and simple interface and is easy to operate, and can be perfectly used to carry out sensitivity analysis of influencing factors of landslides' stability, integrated with the program of Office Excel. The design of drainage engineering are always bases on empirical methods and is short of effective quantitative analysis and appraise, therefore, the conception of critical water table of debris landslide was put forward. For debris landslides with different kinds of slide face in the engineering practice, a program to search the critical water table of debris landslide was developed based on native groundwater table. And groundwater table in the slope should be declined below the critical water table in the drainage works, so the program can be directly used to guide drainage works in the debris landslide. Taking the slope deformation body in the back of former factory building of Muli Shawan hydroelectric power station as an example, a systematic and detailed research on debris landslides' stability during rainfall was researched systematically, the relationship among quantity of rainfall, water table and stability of slope was established, the debris landslides' stability in process of rainfall from dynamic viewpoint was analyzed and researched.

填土边坡水文作用机理与破坏过程研究—以深圳羊宝地填土滑坡为例

A full understanding of failure mechanism, critical hydrological condition, and process of mobilization and deposition of a landslide is essential for optimal design of stabilization measure and forecasting of landslide hazard. This requires a quantitative study of hydrological response of a slope to rainfall through field monitoring, laboratory test and numerical modelling. At 13:40 on September 18, 2002, a fill slope failed following a period of prolonged rain in Shenzhen, resulting in 5 fatalities and 31 injuries. The failed mass with a volume about 2.5×104m3 traveled about 140m on level ground. Field monitoring, laboratory test, theoretical analysis and numerical modelling were carried out to undestand the hydrological response and failure mechanism of this fill slope. This thesis mainly focuses on the following aspects: (1) The hydrological responses and failure processes of slopes under rainfall infiltration were reviewed. Firstly, the factors influencing on the hydrological responses of slopes were analysed. Secondly, the change of stress state of slope soil and modelling methods of slope failure under rainfall infiltration were reviewed. (2) The characteristics of the Yangbaodi landslide and associated rainfall triggering the failure were presented. The failure was characterized by shallow flowslide, due to an increase of ground water table caused by rainfall infiltration. (3) A fully automated instrumentation was carried out to monitor rainfall, and saturated – unsaturated hydrological response of the fill slope, using a raingauge, piezometers, tensiometers and moisture probes. A conceptual hydrogeological model was presented based on field monitoring and borehole data. Analysis of monitoring data showed that the high pore water pressure in fill slope was caused by upward flow of semiconfined groundwater in the moderately decomposed granite. (4) Laboratory and in-situ testing was performed to study the physical and mechanical properties of fills. Isotropically consolidated undrained compression tests and anisotropically consolidated constant shear stress tests were carried out to understand the failure mechanism of the fill slope. It is indicated that loosely compacted soil is of strain-softening behaviour under undrained conditions, accompanied with a rapid increase in excess pore water pressure. In anisotropically consolidated constant shear stress tests, a very small axial strain was required to induce the failure and the excess pore water pressure increased quickly at failure. This indicated that static liquefaction caused by rise in groundwater table due to rainfall infiltration occurred. (5) The hydraulic conductivity of the highly and moderately decomposed granite was estimated using monitering data of pore water pressure. A saturated – unsaturated flow was modeled to study the hydrological response of the fill slope using rainfall records. It was observed that the lagged failure was due to the geological conditions and the discrepancy of hydraulic conductivity of slope soils. The hydraulic conductivity of moderately decomposed granite is relatively higher than the other materials, resulting in a semiconfied groundwater flow in the moderately decomposed granite, and subsequent upward flow into the upper fill layer. When the ground water table in the fill layer was increased to the critical state, the fill slope failed. (6) Numerical exercises were conducted to replay the failure process of the fill slope, based on field monitoring, laboratory and in-situ testing. It was found that the fill slope was mobilized by a rapid transfer of the concentrated shear stress. The movement of failure mass was characterized by viscosity fluid with a gradual increase in velocity. The failure process, including mobilization and subsequent movement and deposition, was studied using numerical methods.

Rainfall infiltration and soil hydrological characteristics below ancient forest, planted forest, and grassland in a temperate northern climate

How rainfall infiltration rate and soil hydrological characteristics develop over time under forests of different ages in temperate regions is poorly understood. In this study, infiltration rate and soil hydrological characteristics were investigated under forests of different ages and under grassland. Soil hydraulic characteristics were measured at different scales under a 250 year old grazed grassland (GL), a six (6 yr) and 48 (48 yr) year old Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) plantation, remnant 300 year old individual Scots pines (OT) and a 4000 year old Caledonian Forest (AF). In-situ field saturated hydraulic conductivity (Kfs) was measured and visible root:soil area was estimated from soil pits. Macroporosity, pore structure, and macropore connectivity were estimated from X-ray tomography of soil cores, and from water-release characteristics. At all scales the median values for Kfs, root fraction, macro-porosity and connectivity values tended to AF > OT > 48 yr > GL > 6 yr, indicating that infiltration rates and water storage increased with forest age. The remnant Caledonian Forest had a huge range of Kfs (12 to > 4922 mm h-1), with maximum Kfs values 7 to 15 times larger than 48-year-old Scots pine plantation, suggesting that undisturbed old forests, with high rainfall and minimal evapotranspiration in winter, may act as important areas for water storage and sinks for storm rainfall to infiltrate and transport to deeper soil layers via preferential flow. The importance of the development of soil hydrological characteristics under different aged forests is discussed.

Uncertainty in wind energy forecasting

Wind energy is the energy source that contributes most to the renewable energy mix of European countries. While there are good wind resources throughout Europe, the intermittency of the wind represents a major problem for the deployment of wind energy into the electricity networks. To ensure grid security a Transmission System Operator needs today for each kilowatt of wind energy either an equal amount of spinning reserve or a forecasting system that can predict the amount of energy that will be produced from wind over a period of 1 to 48 hours. In the range from 5m/s to 15m/s a wind turbine’s production increases with a power of three. For this reason, a Transmission System Operator requires an accuracy for wind speed forecasts of 1m/s in this wind speed range. Forecasting wind energy with a numerical weather prediction model in this context builds the background of this work. The author’s goal was to present a pragmatic solution to this specific problem in the ”real world”. This work therefore has to be seen in a technical context and hence does not provide nor intends to provide a general overview of the benefits and drawbacks of wind energy as a renewable energy source. In the first part of this work the accuracy requirements of the energy sector for wind speed predictions from numerical weather prediction models are described and analysed. A unique set of numerical experiments has been carried out in collaboration with the Danish Meteorological Institute to investigate the forecast quality of an operational numerical weather prediction model for this purpose. The results of this investigation revealed that the accuracy requirements for wind speed and wind power forecasts from today’s numerical weather prediction models can only be met at certain times. This means that the uncertainty of the forecast quality becomes a parameter that is as important as the wind speed and wind power itself. To quantify the uncertainty of a forecast valid for tomorrow requires an ensemble of forecasts. In the second part of this work such an ensemble of forecasts was designed and verified for its ability to quantify the forecast error. This was accomplished by correlating the measured error and the forecasted uncertainty on area integrated wind speed and wind power in Denmark and Ireland. A correlation of 93% was achieved in these areas. This method cannot solve the accuracy requirements of the energy sector. By knowing the uncertainty of the forecasts, the focus can however be put on the accuracy requirements at times when it is possible to accurately predict the weather. Thus, this result presents a major step forward in making wind energy a compatible energy source in the future.