Impact of hydrographic data assimilation on the modelled Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Here we make an initial step toward the development of an ocean assimilation system that can constrain the modelled Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to support climate predictions. A detailed comparison is presented of 1° and 1/4° resolution global model simulations with and without sequential data assimilation, to the observations and transport estimates from the RAPID mooring array across 26.5° N in the Atlantic. Comparisons of modelled water properties with the observations from the merged RAPID boundary arrays demonstrate the ability of in situ data assimilation to accurately constrain the east-west density gradient between these mooring arrays. However, the presence of an unconstrained "western boundary wedge" between Abaco Island and the RAPID mooring site WB2 (16 km offshore) leads to the intensification of an erroneous southwards flow in this region when in situ data are assimilated. The result is an overly intense southward upper mid-ocean transport (0–1100 m) as compared to the estimates derived from the RAPID array. Correction of upper layer zonal density gradients is found to compensate mostly for a weak subtropical gyre circulation in the free model run (i.e. with no assimilation). Despite the important changes to the density structure and transports in the upper layer imposed by the assimilation, very little change is found in the amplitude and sub-seasonal variability of the AMOC. This shows that assimilation of upper layer density information projects mainly on the gyre circulation with little effect on the AMOC at 26° N due to the absence of corrections to density gradients below 2000 m (the maximum depth of Argo). The sensitivity to initial conditions was explored through two additional experiments using a climatological initial condition. These experiments showed that the weak bias in gyre intensity in the control simulation (without data assimilation) develops over a period of about 6 months, but does so independently from the overturning, with no change to the AMOC. However, differences in the properties and volume transport of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) persisted throughout the 3 year simulations resulting in a difference of 3 Sv in AMOC intensity. The persistence of these dense water anomalies and their influence on the AMOC is promising for the development of decadal forecasting capabilities. The results suggest that the deeper waters must be accurately reproduced in order to constrain the AMOC.

Evaluation of ECMWF medium-range ensemble forecasts of precipitation for river basins

Providing probabilistic forecasts using Ensemble Prediction Systems has become increasingly popular in both the meteorological and hydrological communities. Compared to conventional deterministic forecasts, probabilistic forecasts may provide more reliable forecasts of a few hours to a number of days ahead, and hence are regarded as better tools for taking uncertainties into consideration and hedging against weather risks. It is essential to evaluate performance of raw ensemble forecasts and their potential values in forecasting extreme hydro-meteorological events. This study evaluates ECMWF’s medium-range ensemble forecasts of precipitation over the period 2008/01/01-2012/09/30 on a selected mid-latitude large scale river basin, the Huai river basin (ca. 270,000 km2) in central-east China. The evaluation unit is sub-basin in order to consider forecast performance in a hydrologically relevant way. The study finds that forecast performance varies with sub-basin properties, between flooding and non-flooding seasons, and with the forecast properties of aggregated time steps and lead times. Although the study does not evaluate any hydrological applications of the ensemble precipitation forecasts, its results have direct implications in hydrological forecasts should these ensemble precipitation forecasts be employed in hydrology.

A comparative performance analysis of TRMM 3B42 (TMPA) versions 6 and 7 for hydrological applications over Andean-Amazon river basins

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3B42 precipitation estimates are widely used in tropical regions for hydrometeorological research. Recently, version 7 of the product was released. Major revisions to the algorithm involve the radar refl ectivity - rainfall rates relationship, surface clutter detection over high terrain, a new reference database for the passive microwave algorithm, and a higher quality gauge analysis product for monthly bias correction. To assess the impacts of the improved algorithm, we compare the version 7 and the older version 6 product with data from 263 rain gauges in and around the northern Peruvian Andes. The region covers humid tropical rainforest, tropical mountains, and arid to humid coastal plains. We and that the version 7 product has a significantly lower bias and an improved representation of the rainfall distribution. We further evaluated the performance of versions 6 and 7 products as forcing data for hydrological modelling, by comparing the simulated and observed daily streamfl ow in 9 nested Amazon river basins. We find that the improvement in the precipitation estimation algorithm translates to an increase in the model Nash-Sutcliffe effciency, and a reduction in the percent bias between the observed and simulated flows by 30 to 95%.

Flood Risk Assessment in Coastal Drainage Basins through a Multivariate Analysis within a GIS-Based Model

This paper presents a GIS-based multicriteria flood risk assessment and mapping approach applied to coastal drainage basins where hydrological data are not available. It involves risk to different types of possible processes: coastal inundation (storm surge), river, estuarine and flash flood, either at urban or natural areas, and fords. Based on the causes of these processes, several environmental indicators were taken to build-up the risk assessment. Geoindicators include geological-geomorphologic proprieties of Quaternary sedimentary units, water table, drainage basin morphometry, coastal dynamics, beach morphodynamics and microclimatic characteristics. Bioindicators involve coastal plain and low slope native vegetation categories and two alteration states. Anthropogenic indicators encompass land use categories properties such as: type, occupation density, urban structure type and occupation consolidation degree. The selected indicators were stored within an expert Geoenvironmental Information System developed for the State of Sao Paulo Coastal Zone (SIIGAL), which attributes were mathematically classified through deterministic approaches, in order to estimate natural susceptibilities (Sn), human-induced susceptibilities (Sa), return period of rain events (Ri), potential damages (Dp) and the risk classification (R), according to the equation R=(Sn.Sa.Ri).Dp. Thematic maps were automatically processed within the SIIGAL, in which automata cells (""geoenvironmental management units"") aggregating geological-geomorphologic and land use/native vegetation categories were the units of classification. The method has been applied to the Northern Littoral of the State of Sao Paulo (Brazil) in 32 small drainage basins, demonstrating to be very useful for coastal zone public politics, civil defense programs and flood management.

A new species of Moenkhausia from the rio Amazonas and rio Orinoco basins (Characiformes: Characidae)

A new species of Moenkhausia is described from the rio Amazonas and rio Orinoco basins. The new species can be distinguished from congeners mainly by the combination of a conspicuous, relatively small and circular humeral spot, a black spot on the upper caudal-fin lobe, lower caudal-fin lobe without spot or a faint one, and middle caudal-fin rays hyaline or with dark tips. Mature males have a unique combination of two large-sized bony hooks on the anal-fin rays and tiny spines on the distal portion of all fins, which distinguishes the new species from any other species of Characidae.

Analysis Of Semi-Distributed And Global Hydrological Models In The Central Tropical Basins Of The Gulf Of Mexico To The Effects Of Extreme Hydrometeorological Phenomena

In the last years extreme hydrometeorological phenomena have increased in number and intensity affecting the inhabitants of various regions, an example of these effects are the central basins of the Gulf of Mexico (CBGM) that they have been affected by 55.2% with floods and especially the state of Veracruz (1999-2013), leaving economic, social and environmental losses. Mexico currently lacks sufficient hydrological studies for the measurement of volumes in rivers, since is convenient to create a hydrological model (HM) suited to the quality and quantity of the geographic and climatic information that is reliable and affordable. Therefore this research compares the semi-distributed hydrological model (SHM) and the global hydrological model (GHM), with respect to the volumes of runoff and achieve to predict flood areas, furthermore, were analyzed extreme hydrometeorological phenomena in the CBGM, by modeling the Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) which is a SHM and the Modèle Hydrologique Simplifié à I'Extrême (MOHYSE) which is a GHM, to evaluate the results and compare which model is suitable for tropical conditions to propose public policies for integrated basins management and flood prevention. Thus it was determined the temporal and spatial framework of the analyzed basins according to hurricanes and floods. It were developed the SHM and GHM models, which were calibrated, validated and compared the results to identify the sensitivity to the real model. It was concluded that both models conform to tropical conditions of the CBGM, having MOHYSE further approximation to the real model. Worth mentioning that in Mexico there is not enough information, besides there are no records of MOHYSE use in Mexico, so it can be a useful tool for determining runoff volumes. Finally, with the SHM and the GHM were generated climate change scenarios to develop risk studies creating a risk map for urban planning, agro-hydrological and territorial organization.

Diversidade Ictiofaunística e Ecologia reprodutiva de uma espécie nativa de peixe da Bacia Piranhas-Assu, RN

The Caatinga biome is rich in endemic fish species fauna. The present study the results of fish faunal surveys conducted in the hydrographic basin of Piranhas-Assu of the Brazilian Caatinga biome. The fish samples collected were distributed in four orders (Characiformes, Perciformes, Siluriformes and Synbranchiformes), 11 families (Characidae, Curimatidae, Auchenipteridae, Anostomidae, Prochilodontidae, Erythrinidae, Cichlidae, Sciaenidae, Heptapteridae, Loricariidae, Synbranchidae) and 22 species, of which 17 are endemic and five have been introduced from other basins. The order Characiformes was the most representative in number of species (46,35% ) followed by Perciformes (35,38%), Siluriformes (17,44%) and Synbranchiformes (0,5%). The Nile tilapia, Oreochomis niloticus, the only exotic species, was most expressive in number of individuals (24.92%) followed by the native species piau preto, Leporinus piau (18,77 %). Considering the relative frequency of occurrence of the 22 species, 13 were constant, five were accessory and four were occasional. This study investigated the reproductive ecology of an endemic fish black piau, Leporinus piau from the Marechal Dutra reservoir, Acari, Rio Grande do Norte. Samplings were done on a monthly basis from January to December 2009, and a total of 211 specimens were captured. The environmental parameters such as rainfall, temperature, pH, electrical conductivity and dissolved oxygen of water were recorded. The sampled population showed a slight predominance of males (55%), however females were larger and heavier. Both sexes of L. piau showed positive allometric growth, indicating a higher increase of weight than length. The first sexual maturation of males occurred at smaller size, with 16.5 cm in total length than females (20.5 cm). During the reproductive period, the condition factor and gonadosomatic index (GSI) of L. piau were negatively correlated. This species has large oocytes with a high mean fecundity of 54.966 with synchronous oocyte development and total spawning

Nuclear-follower foraging associations among Characiformes fishes and Potamotrygonidae rays in clean waters environments of Teles Pires and Xingu rivers basins, Midwest Brazil

Por meio de observações sub e supra-aquáticas foram registradas associações alimentares do tipo nuclear-seguidor entre três espécies de peixes characiformes - Chalceus epakros, Hemiodus semitaeniatus e Hemiodus unimaculatus - e uma espécie de raia de água doce - Potamotrygon orbignyi - nas bacias dos rios Teles Pires e Xingu, no Centro-Oeste do Brasil. Os peixes teleósteos foram observados seguindo as raias quando estas revolviam o substrato à procura de invertebrados, formando discretas nuvens de sedimento. Essas situações atraíram os peixes que se aproximaram das raias para se alimentar de pequenas presas e outros tipos de alimentos expostos desta forma. Esse é um típico exemplo de relação comensal onde um participante é beneficiado enquanto o outro não é prejudicado e representa o segundo registro na literatura de associação alimentar do tipo nuclear-seguidor entre raias potamotrigonídeas e peixes teleósteos, demonstrando o potencial de estudos naturalísticos para a descoberta de novas interações envolvendo espécies de peixes de água doce.

PCJ River Basins' Water Availability Caused by Water Diversion Scenarios to Supply Metropolitan Areas of So Paulo

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

A gestão da qualidade nos cursos de graduação a distância da UFRN/SEDIS : a percepção dos discentes

The management of water resources in the river basin level, as it defines the Law nº 9433/97, requires the effective knowledge of the processes of hydrological basin, resulting from studies based on consistent series of hydrological data that reflect the characteristics of the basin. In this context, the objective of this work was to develop the modeling of catchment basin of the river Jundiaí - RN and carry out the study of attenuation of a flood of the dam Tabatinga, by means of a monitoring project of hydrological data and climatology of the basin, with a view to promoting the development of research activities by applying methodologies unified and appropriate for the assessment of hydrological studies in the transition region of the semiarid and the forest zone on the coast of Rio Grande do Norte. For the study of the hydrological characteristics of the basin was conducted the automatic design of the basin of the river Jundiaí, with the aid of programs of geoprocessing, was adopted a hydrological model daily, the NRCS, which is a model determined and concentrated. For the use of this model was necessary to determine some parameters that are used in this model, as the Curve Number. Having in mind that this is the first study that is being conducted in the basin with the employment of this model, it was made sensitivity analysis of the results of this model from the adoption of different values of CN, situated within a range appropriate to the conditions of use, occupation and the nature of the soil of this basin. As the objective of this study was also developing a simulation model of the operation of the Tabatinga dam and with this flood control caused in the city of Macaíba, it was developed a mathematical model of fluid balance, developed to be used in Microsoft Excel. The simulation was conducted in two phases: the first step was promoted the water balance daily that allowed the analysis of the sensitivity of the model in relation to the volume of waiting, as well as the determination of the period of greatest discharges daily averages. From this point, it was assumed for the second stage, which was in the determination of the hydrograph of discharges effluent slots, that was determined by means of the fluid balance time, on the basis of the discharges effluents generated by a mathematical equation whose parameters were adjusted according to the hydrograph daily. Through the analyzes it was realized that the dam Tabatinga only has how to carry out the attenuation of floods through the regularization of the volume of waiting, with this there is a loss of approximately 56.5% on storage capacity of this dam, because for causing the attenuation effect of filled the shell of this dam has to remain more than 5m below the level of the sill, representing at least 50.582.927m3. The results obtained with the modeling represents a first step in the direction of improving the level of hydrological information about the behavior of the basins of the semiarid. In order to monitor quantitatively the hydrographic basin of the river Jundiaí will be necessary to install a rain gauge register, next to the Tabatinga dam and a pressure transducer, for regular measurements of flow in the reservoir of the dam. The climatological data will be collected in full automatic weather station installed in Agricultural School Jundiaí

Distribution of stream macroalgae in three tropical drainage basins of southeastern Brazil

Three drainage basins belonging to different drainage systems, but in close proximity, were evaluated to compare the distribution of macroalgal communities in the northwest region of São Paulo State, southeastern Brazil. Monthly samplings were carried out from September 1992 through September 1993 in three sites along the main river of each basin. 10 m length cross segments were evaluated for species per cent cover and richness, on both the population and community levels. Selected stream variables were measured: specific conductance, temperature, turbidity, mean cross-sectional area of the reach, current velocity, pH, and oxygen saturation (%). Principal Coordinate Analysis (PCO), chi-square good-of-fitness, and Pearson Product-Moment correlation coefficient were applied to evaluate the distribution of the macroalgal species. The survey resulted in 36 taxa of macroalgae, of which Cyanophyta was the dominant group (17 taxa or 41.7% of the total), followed by Chlorophyta (15 taxa or 41.7%), Rhodophyta (3 taxa or 8.3%) and Chrysophyta (1 taxon or 2.8%). Stigeoclonium helveticum, 'Chantransia' stage of Batrachospermum spp., and B. delicatulum were the most widespread and frequent macroalgae throughout the basins. The analyses showed that conductance and current velocity were the factors most closely related to the distribution of the macroalgal species. Positive correlation between richness and percent cover was determined, which reinforces the patchiness of stream macroalgal distribution.

Grass-dominated stream sites exhibit low fish species diversity and dominance by guppies: an assessment of two tropical pasture river basins

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A new species of Moenkhausia from the rio Amazonas and rio Orinoco basins (Characiformes: Characidae)

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)