A nutrient increment method for reducing bias in global biogeochemical models

Assimilation of physical variables into coupled physical/biogeochemical models poses considerable difficulties. One problem is that data assimilation can break relationships between physical and biological variables. As a consequence, biological tracers, especially nutrients, are incorrectly displaced in the vertical, resulting in unrealistic biogeochemical fields. To prevent this, we present the idea of applying an increment to the nutrient field within a data assimilating model to ensure that nutrient-potential density relationships are maintained within a water column during assimilation. After correcting the nutrients, it is assumed that other biological variables rapidly adjust to the corrected nutrient fields. We applied this method to a 17 year run of the 2° NEMO ocean-ice model coupled to the PlankTOM5 ecosystem model. Results were compared with a control with no assimilation, and with a model with physical assimilation but no nutrient increment. In the nutrient incrementing experiment, phosphate distributions were improved both at high latitudes and at the equator. At midlatitudes, assimilation generated unrealistic advective upwelling of nutrients within the boundary currents, which spread into the subtropical gyres resulting in more biased nutrient fields. This result was largely unaffected by the nutrient increment and is probably due to boundary currents being poorly resolved in a 2° model. Changes to nutrient distributions fed through into other biological parameters altering primary production, air-sea CO2 flux, and chlorophyll distributions. These secondary changes were most pronounced in the subtropical gyres and at the equator, which are more nutrient limited than high latitudes.

Entropic risk analysis by a high level decision support system (e-FDSS) for construction SMEs

The method of entropy has been useful in evaluating inconsistency on human judgments. This paper illustrates an entropy-based decision support system called e-FDSS to the solution of multicriterion risk and decision analysis in projects of construction small and medium enterprises (SMEs). It is optimized and solved by fuzzy logic, entropy, and genetic algorithms. A case study demonstrated the use of entropy in e-FDSS on analyzing multiple risk criteria in the predevelopment stage of SME projects. Survey data studying the degree of impact of selected project risk criteria on different projects were input into the system in order to evaluate the preidentified project risks in an impartial environment. Without taking into account the amount of uncertainty embedded in the evaluation process; the results showed that all decision vectors are indeed full of bias and the deviations of decisions are finally quantified providing a more objective decision and risk assessment profile to the stakeholders of projects in order to search and screen the most profitable projects.

Examination of long-wave radiative bias in general circulation models over North Africa during May–July

Satellite data are used to quantify and examine the bias in the outgoing long-wave (LW) radiation over North Africa during May–July simulated by a range of climate models and the Met Office global numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. Simulations from an ensemble-mean of multiple climate models overestimate outgoing clear-sky long-wave radiation (LWc) by more than 20 W m−2 relative to observations from Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) for May–July 2000 over parts of the west Sahara, and by 9 W m−2 for the North Africa region (20°W–30°E, 10–40°N). Experiments with the atmosphere-only version of the High-resolution Hadley Centre Global Environment Model (HiGEM), suggest that including mineral dust radiative effects removes this bias. Furthermore, only by reducing surface temperature and emissivity by unrealistic amounts is it possible to explain the magnitude of the bias. Comparing simulations from the Met Office NWP model with satellite observations from Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget (GERB) instruments suggests that the model overestimates the LW by 20–40 W m−2 during North African summer. The bias declines over the period 2003–2008, although this is likely to relate to improvements in the model and inhomogeneity in the satellite time series. The bias in LWc coincides with high aerosol dust loading estimated from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), including during the GERBILS field campaign (18–28 June 2007) where model overestimates in LWc greater than 20 W m−2 and OMI-estimated aerosol optical depth (AOD) greater than 0.8 are concurrent around 20°N, 0–20°W. A model-minus-GERB LW bias of around 30 W m−2 coincides with high AOD during the period 18–21 June 2007, although differences in cloud cover also impact the model–GERB differences. Copyright © Royal Meteorological Society and Crown Copyright, 2010

Linear criteria for gravity-wave breaking in resonant stratified flow over a ridge

Using linear theory, it is shown that, in resonant flow over a 2D mountain ridge, such as exists when a layer of uniform wind is topped by an environmental critical level, the conditions for internal gravity-wave breaking are different from those determined in previous studies for non-resonant flows. For Richardson numbers in the shear layer not exceeding 2.25, two zones of flow overturning exist, respectively below and downstream and above and upstream of the expected locations. Flow overturning occurs for values of the dimensionless height of the ridge smaller than those required for a uniform wind profile. These results may have implications for the physical understanding of high-drag states.

Evaluation of the use of high-density SNP genotyping to implement UPOV Model 2 for DUS testing in barley

Developments in high-throughput genotyping provide an opportunity to explore the application of marker technology in distinctness, uniformity and stability (DUS) testing of new varieties. We have used a large set of molecular markers to assess the feasibility of a UPOV Model 2 approach: “Calibration of threshold levels for molecular characteristics against the minimum distance in traditional characteristics”. We have examined 431 winter and spring barley varieties, with data from UK DUS trials comprising 28 characteristics, together with genotype data from 3072 SNP markers. Inter varietal distances were calculated and we found higher correlations between molecular and morphological distances than have been previously reported. When varieties were grouped by kinship, phenotypic and genotypic distances of these groups correlated well. We estimated the minimum marker numbers required and showed there was a ceiling after which the correlations do not improve. To investigate the possibility of breaking through this ceiling, we attempted genomic prediction of phenotypes from genotypes and higher correlations were achieved. We tested distinctness decisions made using either morphological or genotypic distances and found poor correspondence between each method.

Wave-breaking characteristics of Northern Hemisphere winter blocking: a two-dimensional approach

This paper generalises and applies recently developed blocking diagnostics in a two- dimensional latitude-longitude context, which takes into consideration both mid- and high-latitude blocking. These diagnostics identify characteristics of the associated wave-breaking as seen in the potential temperature (θ) on the dynamical tropopause, in particular the cyclonic or anticyclonic Direction of wave-Breaking (DB index), and the Relative Intensity (RI index) of the air masses that contribute to blocking formation. The methodology is extended to a 2-D domain and a cluster technique is deployed to classify mid- and high-latitude blocking according to the wave-breaking characteristics. Mid-latitude blocking is observed over Europe and Asia, where the meridional gradient of θ is generally weak, whereas high-latitude blocking is mainly present over the oceans, to the north of the jet-stream, where the meridional gradient of θ is much stronger. They occur respectively on the equatorward and poleward flank of the jet- stream, where the horizontal shear ∂u/∂y is positive in the first case and negative in the second case. A regional analysis is also conducted. It is found that cold-anticyclonic and cyclonic blocking divert the storm-track respectively to the south and to the north over the East Atlantic and western Europe. Furthermore, warm-cyclonic blocking over the Pacific and cold-anticyclonic blocking over Europe are identified as the most persistent types and are associated with large amplitude anomalies in temperature and precipitation. Finally, the high-latitude, cyclonic events seem to correlate well with low- frequency modes of variability over the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean.

Default perception of high-speed motion

When human observers are exposed to even slight motion signals followed by brief visual transients—stimuli containing no detectable coherent motion signals—they perceive large and salient illusory jumps. This novel effect, which we call “high phi”, challenges well-entrenched assumptions about the perception of motion, namely the minimal-motion principle and the breakdown of coherent motion perception with steps above an upper limit. Our experiments with transients such as texture randomization or contrast reversal show that the magnitude of the jump depends on spatial frequency and transient duration, but not on the speed of the inducing motion signals, and the direction of the jump depends on the duration of the inducer. Jump magnitude is robust across jump directions and different types of transient. In addition, when a texture is actually displaced by a large step beyond dmax, a breakdown of coherent motion perception is expected, but in the presence of an inducer observers again perceive coherent displacements at or just above dmax. In sum, across a large variety of stimuli, we find that when incoherent motion noise is preceded by a small bias, instead of perceiving little or no motion, as suggested by the minimal-motion principle, observers perceive jumps whose amplitude closely follows their own dmax limits.

Breaking the impasse: towards a new regime for international climate governance

The reality of the current international order makes it imperative that a just and effective climate regime balance the historical responsibility of developed countries with the increasing absolute emissions from many developing nations. In this short outlook article, key pillars are proposed for a new international climate architecture that envisions replacing the current annex system with two new annexes –Annex α, for countries with high current emissions and historically high emissions, and Annex β, for countries with high current emissions and historically low emissions. Countries in both annexes would implement legally binding targets under this framework. Additionally, this proposal includes tweaks and revisions to funding and technology transfer mechanisms to correct for weaknesses and inequities under the current Kyoto architecture. The proposed framework stems from a belief that a top-down, international approach to climate policy remains the most effective for ensuring environmental integrity. Given the slow rate of institutional learning, reforming and improving the current system is held as a more efficient course of action than abandoning the progress already achieved. It is argued that the proposed framework effectively accommodates key equity, environmental integrity and political feasibility concerns.

Retrieval characteristics of non-linear sea surface temperature from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer

Criteria are proposed for evaluating sea surface temperature (SST) retrieved from satellite infra-red imagery: bias should be small on regional scales; sensitivity to atmospheric humidity should be small; and sensitivity of retrieved SST to surface temperature should be close to 1 K K−1. Their application is illustrated for non-linear sea surface temperature (NLSST) estimates. 233929 observations from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on Metop-A are matched with in situ data and numerical weather prediction (NWP) fields. NLSST coefficients derived from these matches have regional biases from −0.5 to +0.3 K. Using radiative transfer modelling we find that a 10% increase in humidity alone can change the retrieved NLSST by between −0.5 K and +0.1 K. A 1 K increase in SST changes NLSST by <0.5 K in extreme cases. The validity of estimates of sensitivity by radiative transfer modelling is confirmed empirically.

Characterizing sampling bias in the trace gas climatologies of the SPARC Data Initiative

Monthly zonal mean climatologies of atmospheric measurements from satellite instruments can have biases due to the nonuniform sampling of the atmosphere by the instruments. We characterize potential sampling biases in stratospheric trace gas climatologies of the Stratospheric Processes and Their Role in Climate (SPARC) Data Initiative using chemical fields from a chemistry climate model simulation and sampling patterns from 16 satellite-borne instruments. The exercise is performed for the long-lived stratospheric trace gases O3 and H2O. Monthly sampling biases for O3 exceed 10% for many instruments in the high-latitude stratosphere and in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere, while annual mean sampling biases reach values of up to 20% in the same regions for some instruments. Sampling biases for H2O are generally smaller than for O3, although still notable in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere and Southern Hemisphere high latitudes. The most important mechanism leading to monthly sampling bias is nonuniform temporal sampling, i.e., the fact that for many instruments, monthly means are produced from measurements which span less than the full month in question. Similarly, annual mean sampling biases are well explained by nonuniformity in the month-to-month sampling by different instruments. Nonuniform sampling in latitude and longitude are shown to also lead to nonnegligible sampling biases, which are most relevant for climatologies which are otherwise free of biases due to nonuniform temporal sampling.

A comparison between ion characteristics observed by the POLAR and DMSP spacecraft in the high-latitude magnetosphere

We study here the injection and transport of ions in the convection-dominated region of the Earth’s magnetosphere. The total ion counts from the CAMMICE MICS instrument aboard the POLAR spacecraft are used to generate occurrence probability distributions of magnetospheric ion populations. MICS ion spectra are characterised by both the peak in the differential energy flux, and the average energy of ions striking the detector. The former permits a comparison with the Stubbs et al. (2001) survey of He2+ ions of solar wind origin within the magnetosphere. The latter can address the occurrences of various classifications of precipitating particle fluxes observed in the topside ionosphere by DMSP satellites (Newell and Meng, 1992). The peak energy occurrences are consistent with our earlier work, including the dawn-dusk asymmetry with enhanced occurrences on the dawn flank at low energies, switching to the dusk flank at higher energies. The differences in the ion energies observed in these two studies can be explained by drift orbit effects and acceleration processes at the magnetopause, and in the tail current sheet. Near noon at average ion energies of _1 keV, the cusp and open LLBL occur further poleward here than in the Newell and Meng survey, probably due to convectionrelated time-of-flight effects. An important new result is that the pre-noon bias previously observed in the LLBL is most likely due to the component of this population on closed field lines, formed largely by low energy ions drifting earthward from the tail. There is no evidence here of mass and momentum transfer from the solar wind to the LLBL by nonreconnection coupling. At higher energies (_2–20 keV), we observe ions mapping to the auroral oval and can distinguish between the boundary and central plasma sheets. We show that ions at these energies relate to a transition from dawnward to duskward dominated flow, this is evidence of how ion drift orbits in the tail influence the location and behaviour of the plasma populations in the magnetosphere.

Is it me? Self-recognition bias across sensory modalities and its relationship to autistic traits

Background Atypical self-processing is an emerging theme in autism research, suggested by lower self-reference effect in memory, and atypical neural responses to visual self-representations. Most research on physical self-processing in autism uses visual stimuli. However, the self is a multimodal construct, and therefore, it is essential to test self-recognition in other sensory modalities as well. Self-recognition in the auditory modality remains relatively unexplored and has not been tested in relation to autism and related traits. This study investigates self-recognition in auditory and visual domain in the general population and tests if it is associated with autistic traits. Methods Thirty-nine neurotypical adults participated in a two-part study. In the first session, individual participant’s voice was recorded and face was photographed and morphed respectively with voices and faces from unfamiliar identities. In the second session, participants performed a ‘self-identification’ task, classifying each morph as ‘self’ voice (or face) or an ‘other’ voice (or face). All participants also completed the Autism Spectrum Quotient (AQ). For each sensory modality, slope of the self-recognition curve was used as individual self-recognition metric. These two self-recognition metrics were tested for association between each other, and with autistic traits. Results Fifty percent ‘self’ response was reached for a higher percentage of self in the auditory domain compared to the visual domain (t = 3.142; P < 0.01). No significant correlation was noted between self-recognition bias across sensory modalities (τ = −0.165, P = 0.204). Higher recognition bias for self-voice was observed in individuals higher in autistic traits (τ AQ = 0.301, P = 0.008). No such correlation was observed between recognition bias for self-face and autistic traits (τ AQ = −0.020, P = 0.438). Conclusions Our data shows that recognition bias for physical self-representation is not related across sensory modalities. Further, individuals with higher autistic traits were better able to discriminate self from other voices, but this relation was not observed with self-face. A narrow self-other overlap in the auditory domain seen in individuals with high autistic traits could arise due to enhanced perceptual processing of auditory stimuli often observed in individuals with autism.

Spontaneous local symmetry breaking: a conformational study of glycine on Cu{311}

Understanding the interplay between intrinsic molecular chirality and chirality of the bonding footprint is crucial in exploiting enantioselectivity at surfaces. As such, achiral glycine and chiral alanine are the most obvious candidates if one is to study this interplay on different surfaces. Here, we have investigated the adsorption of glycine on Cu{311} using reflection-absorption infrared spectroscopy, low-energy electron diffraction, temperature-programmed desorption and first-principles density-functional theory. This combination of techniques has allowed us to accurately identify the molecular conformations present under different conditions, and discuss the overlayer structure in the context of the possible bonding footprints. We have observed coverage-dependent local symmetry breaking, with three-point bonded glycinate moieties forming an achiral arrangement at low coverages, and chirality developing with the presence of two-point bonded moieties at high coverages. Comparison with previous work on the self-assembly of simple amino acids on Cu{311} and the structurally-similar Cu{110} surface has allowed us to rationalise the different conditions necessary for the formation of ordered chiral overlayers.

Effects of a multi-session Cognitive Bias Modification program on interpretative biases and social anxiety symptoms in a sample of Iranian socially-anxious students

This study examines the effects of a multi-session Cognitive Bias Modification (CBM) program on interpretative biases and social anxiety in an Iranian sample. Thirty-six volunteers with a high score on social anxiety measures were recruited from a student population and randomly allocated into the experimental and control groups. In the experimental group, participants received 4 sessions of positive CBM for interpretative biases (CBM-I) over 2 weeks in the laboratory. Participants in the control condition completed a neutral task matched the active CBM-I intervention in format and duration but did not encourage positive disambiguation of socially ambiguous scenarios. The results indicated that after training the positive CBM-I group exhibited more positive (and less negative) interpretations of ambiguous scenarios and less social anxiety symptoms relative to the control condition at both 1 week post-test and 7 weeks follow-up. It is suggested that clinical trials are required to establish the clinical efficacy of this intervention for social anxiety.