Optimal designs for the prediction in hierarchical random coefficient regression models

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Mathematik, Diss., 2015

Interfaz de usuario para un simulador de redes de Petri coloreadas

Aquest projecte presenta el desenvolupament d'una interficie d'usuari que permet visualitzar i interpretar, en forma de text o en forma gràfica, els resultats de la simulació de models de Xarxes de Petri Acolorides (XPAs). L'estudi de les solucions obtingudes mitjançant la simulació de models de XPAs, permetrà analitzar i evaluar tant el comportament com el rendiment del sistema modelat. La interficie ha estat programada en Visual C++.

Temporal and spatial appearance of the membrane cytoskeleton and perineuronal nets in the rat neocortex.

Parvalbumin-immunoreactive interneurons are surrounded by perineuronal nets, containing molecules of the extracellular matrix (e.g. tenascin-R). Furthermore, they seem to have a special cytoskeleton composed of, among others, ankyrinR and beta Rspectrin. In the present developmental study we showed that the intracellular markers parvalbumin, ankyrinR and beta Rspectrin as well as Vicia Villosa agglutinin, an extracellular marker for perineuronal nets, appeared in the second postnatal week. In the third postnatal week, ankyrinR and beta R spectrin were present in the parvalbumin-positive interneurons. Tenascin-R appeared in a similar topographic distribution as the intracellular markers. The adult pattern was established upon the end of the fourth postnatal week. Our results indicate that cytoskeletal maturity maybe a prerequisite for the organization of perineuronal nets of extracellular matrix.

Co-movements in Real Effective Exchange Rates: Evidence from the Dynamic Hierarchical Factor Model

We analyze and quantify co-movements in real effective exchange rates while considering the regional location of countries. More specifically, using the dynamic hierarchical factor model (Moench et al. (2011)), we decompose exchange rate movements into several latent components; worldwide and two regional factors as well as country-specific elements. Then, we provide evidence that the worldwide common factor is closely related to monetary policies in large advanced countries while regional common factors tend to be captured by those in the rest of the countries in a region. However, a substantial proportion of the variation in the real exchange rates is reported to be country-specific; even in Europe country-specific movements exceed worldwide and regional common factors.

Hierarchical Shrinkage in Time-Varying Parameter Models

In this paper, we forecast EU-area inflation with many predictors using time-varying parameter models. The facts that time-varying parameter models are parameter-rich and the time span of our data is relatively short motivate a desire for shrinkage. In constant coefficient regression models, the Bayesian Lasso is gaining increasing popularity as an effective tool for achieving such shrinkage. In this paper, we develop econometric methods for using the Bayesian Lasso with time-varying parameter models. Our approach allows for the coefficient on each predictor to be: i) time varying, ii) constant over time or iii) shrunk to zero. The econometric methodology decides automatically which category each coefficient belongs in. Our empirical results indicate the benefits of such an approach.

Efficacy of insecticide impregnated bed-nets to control malaria in a rural forested area in Southern Cameron

Due to current spreading of chemoresistant strains of Plasmodium falciparum malaria control must incorporate vector control programmes. Due to well known constraints house sprayings cannot be performed as before. Personal protection can be developed and a large scale use of insecticide treated bed-nets appeared to be very useful to reduce man-vector contact in Asia, South America and West and East Africa. No trial has done is forest Central Africa where transmission is permanent. We performed such a trial in the southern part of Cameroon (using deltamethrin, at 25mg/m*) and obtained similar data to those observed in the Gambia Burkina Faso and Tanzania with a noteworthy reduction of both transmission and high parasitaemia of P. falciparum (respectively 78% and 75%) meaning a drop of malaria morbidity.

Validation of the French version of the Hierarchical Personality Inventory for Children (HiPIC): Influence of gender and age on personality traits from 8 to 12 years

The study was designed to investigate the psychometric properties of the French version and the cross-language replicability of the Hierarchical Personality Inventory for Children (HiPIC). The HiPIC is an instrument aimed at assessing the five dimensions of the Five-Factor Model for Children. Subjects were 552 children aged between 8 and 12 years, rated by one or both parents. At the domain level, reliability ranged from .83 to .93 and at the facet level, reliability ranged from .69 to .89. Differences between genders were congruent with those found in the Dutch sample. Girls scored higher on Benevolence and Conscientiousness. Age was negatively correlated with Extraversion and Imagination. For girls, we also observed a decrease of Emotional Stability. A series of exploratory factor analyses confirmed the overall five-factor structure for girls and boys. Targeted factor analyses and congruence coefficients revealed high cross-language replicability at the domain and at the facet levels. The results showed that the French version of the HiPIC is a reliable and valid instrument for assessing personality with children and has a particularly high cross-language replicability.

Neuroendocrine Tumors (NETs): A population-based study of incidence and survival in Girona province, 1994-2004

Els tumors neuroendocrins (TNEs) són un grup de neoplàsies poc freqüents i heterogènies i amb un ampli espectre d’agressivitat. Hi ha molt poca informació epidemiològica a nivell mundial, l’objectiu d’aquest estudi ha estat el de reportar-ne les dades a la província de Girona. Hem inclòs tots els codis de la ICD-O3 que codifiquen un TNE, període 1994-2002. Hem identificat 698 tumors. Es reporten les dades tant de la casuística com les taxes d’incidència i supervivència de cada TNE per separat. Els resultats són consistents amb les publicacions europees. El fet d’haver reportat la incidència i la supervivència dels TNEs a Girona contribueix a un millor coneixement d’aquestes neoplàsies.

Hierarchical conditional random fields for parts based models matching

A parts based model is a parametrization of an object class using a collection of landmarks following the object structure. The matching of parts based models is one of the problems where pairwise Conditional Random Fields have been successfully applied. The main reason of their effectiveness is tractable inference and learning due to the simplicity of involved graphs, usually trees. However, these models do not consider possible patterns of statistics among sets of landmarks, and thus they sufffer from using too myopic information. To overcome this limitation, we propoese a novel structure based on a hierarchical Conditional Random Fields, which we explain in the first part of this memory. We build a hierarchy of combinations of landmarks, where matching is performed taking into account the whole hierarchy. To preserve tractable inference we effectively sample the label set. We test our method on facial feature selection and human pose estimation on two challenging datasets: Buffy and MultiPIE. In the second part of this memory, we present a novel approach to multiple kernel combination that relies on stacked classification. This method can be used to evaluate the landmarks of the parts-based model approach. Our method is based on combining responses of a set of independent classifiers for each individual kernel. Unlike earlier approaches that linearly combine kernel responses, our approach uses them as inputs to another set of classifiers. We will show that we outperform state-of-the-art methods on most of the standard benchmark datasets.

An empirical hierarchical Bayesian unification of occupational exposure assessment methods.

In occupational exposure assessment of airborne contaminants, exposure levels can either be estimated through repeated measurements of the pollutant concentration in air, expert judgment or through exposure models that use information on the conditions of exposure as input. In this report, we propose an empirical hierarchical Bayesian model to unify these approaches. Prior to any measurement, the hygienist conducts an assessment to generate prior distributions of exposure determinants. Monte-Carlo samples from these distributions feed two level-2 models: a physical, two-compartment model, and a non-parametric, neural network model trained with existing exposure data. The outputs of these two models are weighted according to the expert's assessment of their relevance to yield predictive distributions of the long-term geometric mean and geometric standard deviation of the worker's exposure profile (level-1 model). Bayesian inferences are then drawn iteratively from subsequent measurements of worker exposure. Any traditional decision strategy based on a comparison with occupational exposure limits (e.g. mean exposure, exceedance strategies) can then be applied. Data on 82 workers exposed to 18 contaminants in 14 companies were used to validate the model with cross-validation techniques. A user-friendly program running the model is available upon request.

Insecticide treated mosquito nets for malaria control in India-experience from a tribal area on operational feasibility and uptake

The study assessed the operational feasibility and acceptability of insecticide-treated mosquito nets (ITNs) in one Primary Health Centre (PHC) in a falciparum malaria endemic district in the state of Orissa, India, where 74% of the people are tribes and DDT indoor residual spraying had been withdrawn and ITNs introduced by the National Vector Borne Disease Control Programme. To a population of 63,920, 24,442 ITNs were distributed free of charge through 101 treatment centers during July-August 2002. Interview of 1,130, 1,012 and 126 respondents showed that the net use rates were 80%, 74% and 55% in the cold, rainy and summer seasons, respectively. Since using ITNs, 74.5-76.6% of the respondents observed reduction of mosquito bites and 7.2-32.1% reduction of malaria incidence; 37% expressed willingness to buy ITNs if the cost was lower and they were affordable. Up to ten months post-treatment, almost 100% mortality of vector mosquitoes was recorded on unwashed and washed nets (once or twice). Health workers re-treated the nets at the treatment centers eight months after distribution on a cost-recovery basis. The coverage reported by the PHC was only 4.2%, mainly because of unwillingness of the people to pay for re-treatment and to go to the treatment centers from their villages. When the re-treatment was continued at the villages involving personnel from several departments, the coverage improved to about 90%.Interview of 126 respondents showed that among those who got their nets re-treated, 81.4% paid cash for the re-treatment and the remainder were reluctant to pay. Majority of those who paid said that they did so due to the fear that if they did not do so they would lose benefits from other government welfare schemes. The 2nd re-treatment was therefore carried out free of charge nine months after the 1st re-treatment and thus achieved coverage of 70.4%. The study showed community acceptance to use ITNs as they perceived the benefit. Distribution and re-treatment of nets was thus possible through the PHC system, if done free of charge and when personnel from different departments, especially those at village level, were involved.

Effect of untreated bed nets on blood-fed Phlebotomus argentipes in kala-azar endemic foci in Nepal and India

Observational studies in the Indian subcontinent have shown that untreated nets may be protective against visceral leishmaniasis (VL). In this study, we evaluated the effect of untreated nets on the blood feeding rates of Phlebotomus argentipes as well as the human blood index (HBI) in VL endemic villages in India and Nepal. The study had a "before and after intervention" design in 58 households in six clusters. The use of untreated nets reduced the blood feeding rate by 85% (95% CI 76.5-91.1%) and the HBI by 42.2% (95% CI 11.1-62.5%). These results provide circumstantial evidence that untreated nets may provide some degree of personal protection against sand fly bites.

Comparison of the efficacy of long-lasting insecticidal nets PermaNet® 2.0 and Olyset® against Anopheles albimanus under laboratory conditions

Insecticide-treated nets provide a reduction in human-vector contact through physical barrier, mortality and/or repellent effects that protect both users and non-users, thereby protecting the wider community from vector-borne diseases like malaria. Long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs) are the best alternative. This study evaluated the bioefficacy of LLINs PermaNet® 2.0 and Olyset® under laboratory conditions with Anopheles albimanus. The laboratory strain was evaluated for insecticide susceptibility with selected insecticides used for malarial control. Regeneration time and wash resistance were evaluated with the standard bioassay cone technique following WHO guidelines. Heat assistance was used for Olyset® nets; the nets were exposed to four different temperatures to speed the regeneration process. The regeneration study of PermaNet® 2.0 showed that efficacy was fully recovered by 24 h after one and three washes and wash resistance persisted for 15 washes. Regeneration of Olyset® nets was not observed for nets washed three times, even with the different temperature exposures for up to seven days. Thus, for Olyset® the wash resistance evaluation could not proceed. Differences in response between the two LLINs may be associated with differences in manufacturing procedures and species response to the evaluated LLINs. PermaNet® 2.0 showed higher and continuous efficacy against An. albimanus.

The hierarchical structures of the NEO-PI-R and the 16PF5

The present study compares the higher-level dimensions and the hierarchical structures of the fifth edition of the 16 PF with those of the NEO PI-R. Both inventories measure personality according to five higher-level dimensions. These inventories were however constructed according to different methods (bottom-up vs. top-down). 386 participants filled out both questionnaires. Correlations, regressions and canonical correlations made it possible to compare the inventories. As expected they roughly measure the same aspects of personality. There is a coherent association among four of the five dimensions measured in the tests. However Agreeableness, the remaining dimension in the NEO PI-R, is not represented in the 16 PF 5. Our analyses confirmed the hierarchical structures of both instruments, but this confirmation was more complete in the case of the NEO PI-R. Indeed, a parallel analysis indicated that a four-factor solution should be considered in the case of the 16 PF 5. On the other hand, the NEO PI-R's five-factor solution was confirmed. The top-down construction of this instrument seems to make for a more legible structure. Of the two five-dimension constructs, the NEO PI-R thus seems the more reliable. This confirms the relevance of the Five Factor Model of personality.