A Bayesian network approach to modelling temporal behaviour of Lyngbya majuscula bloom initiation

Lyngbya majuscula is a cyanobacterium (blue-green algae) occurring naturally in tropical and subtropical coastal areas worldwide. Deception Bay, in Northern Moreton Bay, Queensland, has a history of Lyngbya blooms, and forms a case study for this investigation. The South East Queensland (SEQ) Healthy Waterways Partnership, collaboration between government, industry, research and the community, was formed to address issues affecting the health of the river catchments and waterways of South East Queensland. The Partnership coordinated the Lyngbya Research and Management Program (2005-2007) which culminated in a Coastal Algal Blooms (CAB) Action Plan for harmful and nuisance algal blooms, such as Lyngbya majuscula. This first phase of the project was predominantly of a scientific nature and also facilitated the collection of additional data to better understand Lyngbya blooms. The second phase of this project, SEQ Healthy Waterways Strategy 2007-2012, is now underway to implement the CAB Action Plan and as such is more management focussed. As part of the first phase of the project, a Science model for the initiation of a Lyngbya bloom was built using Bayesian Networks (BN). The structure of the Science Bayesian Network was built by the Lyngbya Science Working Group (LSWG) which was drawn from diverse disciplines. The BN was then quantified with annual data and expert knowledge. Scenario testing confirmed the expected temporal nature of bloom initiation and it was recommended that the next version of the BN be extended to take this into account. Elicitation for this BN thus occurred at three levels: design, quantification and verification. The first level involved construction of the conceptual model itself, definition of the nodes within the model and identification of sources of information to quantify the nodes. The second level included elicitation of expert opinion and representation of this information in a form suitable for inclusion in the BN. The third and final level concerned the specification of scenarios used to verify the model. The second phase of the project provides the opportunity to update the network with the newly collected detailed data obtained during the previous phase of the project. Specifically the temporal nature of Lyngbya blooms is of interest. Management efforts need to be directed to the most vulnerable periods to bloom initiation in the Bay. To model the temporal aspects of Lyngbya we are using Object Oriented Bayesian networks (OOBN) to create ‘time slices’ for each of the periods of interest during the summer. OOBNs provide a framework to simplify knowledge representation and facilitate reuse of nodes and network fragments. An OOBN is more hierarchical than a traditional BN with any sub-network able to contain other sub-networks. Connectivity between OOBNs is an important feature and allows information flow between the time slices. This study demonstrates more sophisticated use of expert information within Bayesian networks, which combine expert knowledge with data (categorized using expert-defined thresholds) within an expert-defined model structure. Based on the results from the verification process the experts are able to target areas requiring greater precision and those exhibiting temporal behaviour. The time slices incorporate the data for that time period for each of the temporal nodes (instead of using the annual data from the previous static Science BN) and include lag effects to allow the effect from one time slice to flow to the next time slice. We demonstrate a concurrent steady increase in the probability of initiation of a Lyngbya bloom and conclude that the inclusion of temporal aspects in the BN model is consistent with the perceptions of Lyngbya behaviour held by the stakeholders. This extended model provides a more accurate representation of the increased risk of algal blooms in the summer months and show that the opinions elicited to inform a static BN can be readily extended to a dynamic OOBN, providing more comprehensive information for decision makers.

Rejected! The harmful effects of workgroup mistreatment and the moderating role of organisational norms

This program of research investigated the harmful effects of mistreatment by the workgroup, and the role of perceived rejection as a critical mediator linking mistreatment and outcomes. This research program had three primary purposes. First, the research aimed to examine the important role of workgroup mistreatment as an independent predictor of negative outcomes, over and above the influence of supervisor mistreatment. Second, the research aimed to examine the effect of perceived rejection as an explanatory variable linking workgroup mistreatment and outcomes. Finally, the moderating effect of organizational norms on the relationship between workgroup mistreatment and perceived rejection was examined. The relationships of interest were examined over four studies, using multiple methods of data collection, across part-time and full-time working samples. In Study 1 (Chapter 2), the independent role of workgroup mistreatment and the mediating role of perceived rejection were examined. One hundred and forty two part-time working participants took part in the study. The participants completed a questionnaire on workplace behaviors in their organizations. The results of hierarchical regression analyses revealed a strong harmful effect of workgroup mistreatment, independent of mistreatment by the supervisor. In addition, the results showed that perceived rejection fully mediated the relationship between workgroup mistreatment and depression and organizational based self esteem. The study highlighted that perceived rejection acts as a key underlying psychological mechanism involved in the effect of workgroup mistreatment. This study has been published in the Journal of Occupational Health Psychology. Study 2 and Study 3 were presented as one paper in Chapter 3. The aims of these two studies was to explore the effects of workgroup mistreatment on a wider range of individual and organizational level outcomes, and to provide further evidence of the mediating role of perceived rejection as observed in Study 1. The results from both studies demonstrated that workgroup mistreatment had a significant and independent role in predicting negative individual and organizational level outcomes, providing support for the findings of Study 1. In the first study, 189 participants received scenarios manipulating workgroup mistreatment and supervisor mistreatment. The results of hierarchical regression analyses revealed that workgroup mistreatment harmfully affected participants, over and above that of the supervisor. The results also demonstrated that perceived rejection mediated the positive relationships between workgroup mistreatment and depression and organizational deviance, and also the negative relationships between workgroup mistreatment and organizational based self esteem and organizational citizenship behaviors. The second study included an additional aim, to examine the moderating role of supportive organizational norms. Two hundred and twenty nine participants read scenarios that manipulated workgroup mistreatment, supervisor mistreatment and organizational norms. The results of hierarchical regression analyses revealed the significant harmful effects of workgroup mistreatment, over and above the influence of supervisor mistreatment. The results also revealed the mediating role of perceived rejection. The direct effect of positive organizational norms also emerged, consistent with previous research. In addition, the result revealed that employees who experienced supportive organizational norms were more likely to reconcile with their workgroup members after experiencing mistreatment compared to employees who experienced hostile organizational norms. Finally, an unexpected pattern on the key affective variables of depression and organizational based self esteem emerged, such that mistreatment led to more negative outcomes in the supportive norms condition than in the hostile condition, where employees appeared to be desensitized. This paper is currently under review at the Journal of Applied Social Psychology. In Study 4 (Chapter 4), the overall model of workplace mistreatment was tested on a sample of full-time workers in an applied setting. One hundred and seventy two adults took part in the study. Participants were required to evaluate their workplace regarding mistreatment and organizational norms and to report their own psychological, behavioral and organizational outcomes. The results revealed that workgroup mistreatment was associated with increased depression, stress and avoidance, over and above supervisor mistreatment. In addition, the results revealed that perceived rejection acted as an explanatory variable linking workgroup mistreatment to a number of outcomes. Furthermore, the moderating role of hostile organizational norms emerged on depression, stress, reconciliation and avoidance. This paper is currently under review at the Journal of Occupational Health Psychology. Overall, the four studies provided empirical support for the majority of the hypotheses. The effects were demonstrated for a range of psychological, behavioral, and organizational level outcomes, using multiple methods of data collection, across part-time and full-time workers. At the conclusion of the thesis (Chapter 5), an overall summary is provided of the findings across all four studies, practical and theoretical implications and research directions.

Fluorescence properties of Baltic Sea phytoplankton

To obtain data on phytoplankton dynamics with improved spatial and temporal resolution, and at reduced cost, traditional phytoplankton monitoring methods have been supplemented with optical approaches. In this thesis, I have explored various fluorescence-based techniques for detection of phytoplankton abundance, taxonomy and physiology in the Baltic Sea. In algal cultures used in this thesis, the availability of nitrogen and light conditions caused changes in pigmentation, and consequently in light absorption and fluorescence properties of cells. In the Baltic Sea, physical environmental factors (e.g. mixing depth, irradiance and temperature) and related seasonal succession in the phytoplankton community explained a large part of the seasonal variability in the magnitude and shape of Chlorophyll a (Chla)-specific absorption. The variability in Chla-specific fluorescence was related to the abundance of cyanobacteria, the size structure of the phytoplankton community, and absorption characteristics of phytoplankton. Cyanobacteria show very low Chla-specific fluorescence. In the presence of eukaryotic species, Chla fluorescence describes poorly cyanobacteria. During cyanobacterial bloom in the Baltic Sea, phycocyanin fluorescence explained large part of the variability in Chla concentrations. Thus, both Chla and phycocyanin fluorescence were required to predict Chla concentration. Phycobilins are major light harvesting pigments for cyanobacteria. In the open Baltic Sea, small picoplanktonic cyanobacteria were the main source of phycoerythrin fluorescence and absorption signal. Large filamentous cyanobacteria, forming harmful blooms, were the main source of the phycocyanin fluorescence signal and typically their biomass and phycocyanin fluorescence were linearly related. Using phycocyanin fluorescence, dynamics of cyanobacterial blooms can be detected at high spatial and seasonal resolution not possible with other methods. Various taxonomic phytoplankton pigment groups can be separated by spectral fluorescence. I compared multivariate calibration methods for the retrieval of phytoplankton biomass in different taxonomic groups. Partial least squares regression method gave the closest predictions for all taxonomic groups, and the accuracy was adequate for phytoplankton bloom detection. Variable fluorescence has been proposed as a tool to study the physiological state of phytoplankton. My results from the Baltic Sea emphasize that variable fluorescence alone cannot be used to detect nutrient limitation of phytoplankton. However, when combined with experiments with active nutrient manipulation, and other nutrient limitation indices, variable fluorescence provided valuable information on the physiological responses of the phytoplankton community. This thesis found a severe limitation of a commercial fast repetition rate fluorometer, which couldn t detect the variable fluorescence of phycoerythrin-lacking cyanobacteria. For these species, the Photosystem II absorption of blue light is very low, and fluorometer excitation light did not saturate Photosystem II during a measurement. This thesis encourages the use of various in vivo fluorescence methods for the detection of bulk phytoplankton biomass, biomass of cyanobacteria, chemotaxonomy of phytoplankton community, and phytoplankton physiology. Fluorescence methods can support traditional phytoplankton monitoring by providing continuous measurements of phytoplankton, and thereby strengthen the understanding of the links between biological, chemical and physical processes in aquatic ecosystems.

Interactions between harmful algae and calanoid copepods in the Baltic Sea

The aim of the studies reported in this thesis was to examine the feeding interactions between calanoid copepods and toxic algae in the Baltic Sea. The central questions in this research concerned the feeding, survival and egg production of copepods exposed to toxic algae. Furthermore, the importance of copepods as vectors in toxin transfer was examined. The haptophyte Prymnesium parvum, which produces extracellular toxins, was the only studied species that directly harmed copepods. Beside this, it had allelopathic effects (cell lysis) on non-toxic Rhodomonas salina. Copepods that were exposed to P. parvum filtrates died or became severely impaired, although filtrates were not haemolytic (indicative of toxicity in this study). Monospecific Prymnesium cell suspensions, in turn, were haemolytic and copepods in these treatments became inactive, although no clear effect on mortality was detected. These results suggest that haemolytic activity may not be a good proxy of the harmful effects of P. parvum. In addition, P. parvum deterred feeding, and low egestion and suppressed egg production were consequently observed in monospecific suspensions of Prymnesium. Similarly, ingestion and faecal pellet production rates were suppressed in high concentration P. parvum filtrates and in mixtures of P. parvum and R. salina. These results indicate that the allelopathic effects of P. parvum on other algal species together with lowered viability as well as suppressed production of copepods may contribute to bloom formation and persistence. Furthermore, the availability of food for planktivorous animals may be affected due to reduced copepod productivity. Nodularin produced by Nodularia spumigena was transferred to Eurytemora affinis via grazing on filaments of small N. spumigena and by direct uptake from the dissolved pool. Copepods also acquired nodularin in fractions where N. spumigena filaments were absent. Thus, the importance of microbial food webs in nodularin transfer should be considered. Copepods were able to remove particulate nodularin from the system, but at the same time a large proportion of the nodularin disappeared. This indicates that copepods may possess effective mechanisms to remove toxins from their tissues. The importance of microorganisms, such as bacteria, in the degradation of cyanobacterial toxins could also be substantial. Our results were the first reports of the accumulation of diarrhetic shellfish toxins (DSTs) produced by Dinophysis spp. in copepods. The PTX2 content in copepods after feeding experiments corresponded to the ingestion of <100 Dinophysis spp. cells. However, no DSTs were recorded from field-collected copepods. Dinophysis spp. was not selected by the copepods and consumption remained low. It seems thus likely that copepods are an unimportant link in the transfer of DSTs in the northern Baltic Sea.

Investigation Into Harmful Patterns Over Multitrack Shingled Magnetic Detection Using the Voronoi Model

Two-dimensional magnetic recording 2-D (TDMR) is a promising technology for next generation magnetic storage systems based on a systems-level framework involving sophisticated signal processing at the core. The TDMR channel suffers from severe jitter noise along with electronic noise that needs to be mitigated during signal detection and recovery. Recently, we developed noise prediction-based techniques coupled with advanced signal detectors to work with these systems. However, it is important to understand the role of harmful patterns that can be avoided during the encoding process. In this paper, we investigate the Voronoi-based media model to study the harmful patterns over multitrack shingled recording systems. Through realistic quasi-micromagnetic simulation studies, we identify 2-D data patterns that contribute to high media noise. We look into the generic Voronoi model and present our analysis on multitrack detection with constrained coded data. We show that the 2-D constraints imposed on input patterns result in an order of magnitude improvement in the bit-error rate for the TDMR systems. The use of constrained codes can reduce the complexity of 2-D intersymbol interference (ISI) signal detection, since the lesser 2-D ISI span can be accommodated at the cost of a nominal code rate loss. However, a system must be designed carefully so that the rate loss incurred by a 2-D constraint does not offset the detector performance gain due to more distinguishable readback signals.

Effects of temperature on the threshold of phosphorus for algal blooms

Algal blooms, worsening marine ecosystems and causing great economic loss, have been paid much attention to for a long time. Such environmental factors as light penetration, water temperature, and nutrient concentration are crucial in blooms processes. Among them, only nutrients can be controlled. Therefore, the threshold of nutrients for algal blooms is of great concern. To begin with, a dynamic eutrophication model has been constructed to simulate the algal growth and phosphorus cycling. The model encapsulates the essential biological processes of algal growth and decay, and phosphorus regeneration due to algal decay. The nutrient limitation is based upon commonly used Monod's kinetics. The effects of temperature and phosphorus limitation are particularly addressed. Then, we have endeavored to elucidate the threshold of phosphorus at different temperature for algal blooms. Based on the numerical simulation, the isoquant contours of change rate of alga as shown in the figure are obtained, which obviously demonstrate the threshold of nutrient at an arbitrary reasonable temperature. The larger the change rate is, the more rapidly the alga grows. If the phosphorus concentration at a given temperature remains larger than the threshold the algal biomass may increase monotonically, leading to the algal blooming. With the rising of temperature, the threshold is apparently reduced, which may explain why likely red tide disasters occur in a fine summer day. So, high temperature and sufficient phosphorus supply are the major factors which result in algal growth and blowout of red tide.

Ecophysiological perspectives of blue-green algal blooms

Blue-green algae (cyanobacteria) have had a profound and unparalled impact on the aquatic environment because of the phenomenon of bloom formation. In many countries, water management is threatened with extensive and persistent noxious blooms of blue-green algae in surface and near-surface mesotrophic and eutrophic waters. In view of this, ecological and physiological factors responsible for blue-green algal dominance are discussed. The implications of cyanobacterial blooms are highlighted and recommendations made to combat this menace

Toxic blue-green algae: The "problem" in perspective

The incidence of blue-green algal blooms and surface scum-formation are certainly not new phenomena. Many British and European authors have been faithfully describing the unmistakable symptoms of blue-green algal scums for over 800 years. There is no disputing that blue-green algal toxins are extremely harmful. Three quite separate categories of compound have been separated: neurotoxins; hepatotoxins and lipopolysaccharides. There is a popular association between blue-green algae and eutrophication. Certainly the main nuisance species - of Microcystis, Anabaena and Aphanizomenon are rare in oligotrophic lakes and reservoirs. Several approaches have been proposed for the control of blue-green algae. Distinction is made between methods for discharging algae already present (eg algicides; straw bales; viruses; parasitic fungi and herbivorous ciliates), and methods for averting an anticipated abundance in the future (phosphorous control, artificial circulation etc).

Temporal and spatial variations in the quality of water in El Gergal Reservior, Seville, Spain

It is often difficult to define ‘water quality’ with any degree of precision. One approach is that suggested by Battarbee (1997) and is based on the extent to which individual lakes have changed compared with their natural ‘baseline’ status. Defining the base-line status of artificial lakes and reservoirs however, is, very difficult. In ecological terms, the definition of quality must include some consideration of their functional characteristics and the extent to which these characteristics are self-sustaining. The challenge of managing lakes in a sustainable way is particularly acute in semi-arid, Mediterranean countries. Here the quality of the water is strongly influenced by the unpredictability of the rainfall as well as year-to-year variations in the seasonal averages. Wise management requires profound knowledge of how these systems function. Thus a holistic approach must be adopted and the factors influencing the seasonal dynamics of the lakes quantified over a range of spatial and temporal scales. In this article, the authors describe some of the ways in which both long-term and short-term changes in the weather have influenced the seasonal and spatial dynamics of phytoplankton in El Gergal, a water supply reservoir situated in the south of Spain. The quality of the water stored in this reservoir is typically very good but surface blooms of algae commonly appear during warm, calm periods when the water level is low. El Gergal reservoir is managed by the Empresa Municipal de Abastecimiento y Saneamiento (EMASESA) and supplies water for domestic, commercial and industrial use to an area which includes the city of Seville and twelve of its surrounding towns (ca. 1.3 million inhabitants). El Gergal is the last of two reservoirs in a chain of four situated in the Rivera de Huelva basin, a tributary of the Guadalquivir river. It was commissioned by EMASESA in 1979 and since then the company has monitored its main limnological parameters on, at least, a monthly basis and used this information to improve the management of the reservoir. As a consequence of these intensive studies the physical, chemical and biological information acquired during this period makes the El Gergal database one of the most complete in Spain. In this article the authors focus on three ‘weather-related’ effects that have had a significant impact on the composition and distribution of phytoplankton in El Gergal: (i) the changes associated with severe droughts; (ii) the spatial variations produced by short-term changes in the weather; (iii) the impact of water transfers on the seasonal dynamics of the dinoflagellate Ceratium.

Discovery of viruses lysing blue-green algae in the Dneprovsk reservoirs. [Translation of: Water blooms (ed. A. V. Topachevskii) pp.171-174. Kiev, Naukova Dumka, 1968]

Viruses, which are characterised by a relative simplicity of chemical composition, are involved with all the groups of the animal and plant world. The discovery of viruses of lower organisms has special interest. Along with the already known viruses lysing bacteria and actinomycetes, viruses have been discovered in recent years which lyse algae. During investigations of water from water-bloom patches and of mud taken from zones of massive accumulation of blue-green algae in the Dneprovsk reservoirs, the authors obtained viruses lysing algae. The revealing of viruses producing lysis of blue-green algae, which one could use in the control of water-blooms, has the greatest interest. With this aim, samples of water were collected from various zones of water-bloom patches in the Kremenchug, Dneprovsk and Kukhov reservoirs. For viruses lysing algae we propose the name 'algophages'. Along with the existence of viruses of algae of the phage type, one cannot deny the possibility of the existence of viruses of another type, multiplying in the cells of algae and causing their virus illnesses.

Los fenómenos de marea roja y toxicidad de moluscos bivalvos en el Mar Argentino

Two unusual blooms of dinoflagellates appeared in the Argentine Continental Shelf in spring/summer period of 1980 and 1981, but these differed, one from the other. The first was an intense red-tide with which were associated no signs of toxicity, whereas the second, although; not showing special coloration, was associated with (and doubtless the cause of) intense toxicity in bivalves of the Gulfs of San Matías and San José and of the shelf waters off Península Valdés; the death of two fishermen was atributed to the latter. The first bloom developed as an unusual surface concentration of the predatory dinoflagellate Noctiluca scintillans. It was supposed that this concentration was produced by a particular combination of processes of circulation of water masses. The second bloom was characterizaed by high concentrations of Gonyalax excavata. Investigations at the time determined that toxins in molluscs of the area correasponded to what is called "paralytic shellfish poison". The bloom of G. excavata was associated with a front between well mixed and well stratified water masses. The maximum toxicity centre occured in the mussel bank "Constanza" (42°23'27"S and 62°45'66"W) which coincides with the front referred to above. (PDF contains 93 pages)

Modelling algal blooms

This is the final report on the research project to develop predictive models to quantify algal blooms in relation to environmental variables. The project's objectives were to develop models simulating the impact of vertical structure and mass transfer upon the dynamics of planktonic algae, including cyanobacteria, in lakes and reservoirs, to assess the potential of sedimentary phosphorus to sustain algal growth following reduction in external loading and to expand and enhance formulations to predict behaviour of blue-green algal populations and to incorporate these into a model software package. As part of the project a strategy for the production of a user-friendly packaging for the modelling software PROTEC-2 adaptable to particular sites was developed.