Disagreements in meta-analyses using outcomes measured on continuous or rating scales: observer agreement study

OBJECTIVE: To study the inter-observer variation related to extraction of continuous and numerical rating scale data from trial reports for use in meta-analyses. DESIGN: Observer agreement study. DATA SOURCES: A random sample of 10 Cochrane reviews that presented a result as a standardised mean difference (SMD), the protocols for the reviews and the trial reports (n=45) were retrieved. DATA EXTRACTION: Five experienced methodologists and five PhD students independently extracted data from the trial reports for calculation of the first SMD result in each review. The observers did not have access to the reviews but to the protocols, where the relevant outcome was highlighted. The agreement was analysed at both trial and meta-analysis level, pairing the observers in all possible ways (45 pairs, yielding 2025 pairs of trials and 450 pairs of meta-analyses). Agreement was defined as SMDs that differed less than 0.1 in their point estimates or confidence intervals. RESULTS: The agreement was 53% at trial level and 31% at meta-analysis level. Including all pairs, the median disagreement was SMD=0.22 (interquartile range 0.07-0.61). The experts agreed somewhat more than the PhD students at trial level (61% v 46%), but not at meta-analysis level. Important reasons for disagreement were differences in selection of time points, scales, control groups, and type of calculations; whether to include a trial in the meta-analysis; and data extraction errors made by the observers. In 14 out of the 100 SMDs calculated at the meta-analysis level, individual observers reached different conclusions than the originally published review. CONCLUSIONS: Disagreements were common and often larger than the effect of commonly used treatments. Meta-analyses using SMDs are prone to observer variation and should be interpreted with caution. The reliability of meta-analyses might be improved by having more detailed review protocols, more than one observer, and statistical expertise.

Response of temperate grasslands at different altitudes to simulated summer drought differed but scaled with annual precipitation

Water is an important resource for plant life. Since climate scenarios for Switzerland predict an average reduction of 20% in summer precipitation until 2070, understanding ecosystem responses to water shortage, e.g. in terms of plant productivity, is of major concern. Thus, we tested the effects of simulated summer drought on three managed grasslands along an altitudinal gradient in Switzerland from 2005 to 2007, representing typical management intensities at the respective altitude. We assessed the effects of experimental drought on above- and below-ground productivity, stand structure (LAI and vegetation height) and resource use (carbon and water). Responses of community above-ground productivity to reduced precipitation input differed among the three sites but scaled positively with total annual precipitation at the sites (R2=0.85). Annual community above-ground biomass productivity was significantly reduced by summer drought at the alpine site receiving the least amount of annual precipitation, while no significant decrease (rather an increase) was observed at the pre-alpine site receiving highest precipitation amounts in all three years. At the lowland site (intermediate precipitation sums), biomass productivity significantly decreased in response to drought only in the third year, after showing increased abundance of a drought tolerant weed species in the second year. No significant change in below-ground biomass productivity was observed at any of the sites in response to simulated summer drought. However, vegetation carbon isotope ratios increased under drought conditions, indicating an increase in water use efficiency. We conclude that there is no general drought response of Swiss grasslands, but that sites with lower annual precipitation seem to be more vulnerable to summer drought than sites with higher annual precipitation, and thus site-specific adaptation of management strategies will be needed, especially in regions with low annual precipitation.

An economic assessment of drought effects on three grassland systems in Switzerland

This paper analyzes the economic impacts of summer drought on Swiss grassland production. We combine field trial data from drought experiments in three different grasslands in Switzerland with site-specific information on economic costs and benefits. The analysis focuses on the economic implications of drought effects on grassland yields as well as grassland composition. In agreement with earlier studies, we found rather heterogeneous yield effects of drought on Swiss grassland systems, with significantly reduced yields as a response to drought at the lowland and sub-alpine sites, but increased yields at the wetter pre-alpine site. Relative yield losses were highest at the sub-alpine site (with annual yield losses of up to 37 %). However, because income from grassland production at extensive sites relies to a large extent on ecological direct payments, even large yield losses had only limited implications in terms of relative profit reductions. In contrast, negative drought impacts at the most productive, intensively managed lowland site were dominant, with average annual drought-induced profit margin reductions of about 28 %. This is furthermore emphasized if analyzing the farm level perspective of drought impacts. Combining site-specific effects at the farm level, we found that in particular farms with high shares of lowland grassland sites suffer from summer droughts in terms of farm-level fodder production and profit margins. Moreover, our results showed that the higher competitiveness of weeds (broad-leaved dock) under drought conditions will require increasing attention on weed control measures in future grassland production systems. Taking into account that the risk of drought occurrence is expected to increase in the coming years, additional instruments to cope with drought risks in fodder production and finally farmers’ income have to be developed.

How do subordinate and dominant species in semi-natural mountain grasslands relate to productivity and land-use change?

Changes in agricultural practices of semi-natural mountain grasslands are expected to modify plant community structure and shift dominance patterns. Using vegetation surveys of 11 sites in semi-natural grasslands of the Swiss Jura and Swiss and French Alps, we determined the relative contribution of dominant, subordinate and transient plant species in grazed and abandoned communities and observed their changes along a gradient of productivity and in response to abandonment of pasturing. The results confirm the humpbacked diversity–productivity relationship in semi-natural grassland, which is due to the increase of subordinate species number at intermediate productivity levels. Grazed communities, at the lower or higher end of the species diversity gradient, suffered higher species loss after grazing abandonment. Species loss after abandonment of pasturing was mainly due to a higher reduction in the number of subordinate species, as a consequence of the increasing proportion of dominant species. When plant biodiversity maintenance is the aim, our results have direct implications for the way grasslands should be managed. Indeed, while intensification and abandonment have been accelerated since few decades, our findings in this multi-site analysis confirm the importance of maintaining intermediate levels of pasturing to preserve biodiversity.

Drought Stress alters Solute Allocation in Broadleaf Dock (Rumex obtusifolius)

According to climate models, drier summers must be expected more frequently in Central Europe during the next decades, which may influence plant performance and competition in grassland. The overall source–sink relations in plants, especially allocation of solutes to above- and below-ground parts, may be affected by drought. To investigate solute export from a given leaf of broadleaf dock, a solution containing 57Co and 65Zn was introduced through a leaf flap. The export from this leaf was detected by analysing radionuclide contents in various plant parts. Less label was allocated to new leaves and more to roots under drought. The observed alterations of source–sink relations in broadleaf dock were reversible during a subsequent short period of rewatering. These findings suggest an increased resource allocation to roots under drought improving the functionality of the plants.

A mutation in the SUV39H2 gene in Labrador Retrievers with hereditary nasal parakeratosis (HNPK) provides insights into the epigenetics of keratinocyte differentiation.

Hereditary nasal parakeratosis (HNPK), an inherited monogenic autosomal recessive skin disorder, leads to crusts and fissures on the nasal planum of Labrador Retrievers. We performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) using 13 HNPK cases and 23 controls. We obtained a single strong association signal on chromosome 2 (p(raw) = 4.4×10⁻¹⁴). The analysis of shared haplotypes among the 13 cases defined a critical interval of 1.6 Mb with 25 predicted genes. We re-sequenced the genome of one case at 38× coverage and detected 3 non-synonymous variants in the critical interval with respect to the reference genome assembly. We genotyped these variants in larger cohorts of dogs and only one was perfectly associated with the HNPK phenotype in a cohort of more than 500 dogs. This candidate causative variant is a missense variant in the SUV39H2 gene encoding a histone 3 lysine 9 (H3K9) methyltransferase, which mediates chromatin silencing. The variant c.972T>G is predicted to change an evolutionary conserved asparagine into a lysine in the catalytically active domain of the enzyme (p.N324K). We further studied the histopathological alterations in the epidermis in vivo. Our data suggest that the HNPK phenotype is not caused by hyperproliferation, but rather delayed terminal differentiation of keratinocytes. Thus, our data provide evidence that SUV39H2 is involved in the epigenetic regulation of keratinocyte differentiation ensuring proper stratification and tight sealing of the mammalian epidermis.

Genome-wide analysis in German shepherd dogs reveals association of a locus on CFA 27 with atopic dermatitis

Humans and dogs are both affected by the allergic skin disease atopic dermatitis (AD), caused by an interaction between genetic and environmental factors. The German shepherd dog (GSD) is a high-risk breed for canine AD (CAD). In this study, we used a Swedish cohort of GSDs as a model for human AD. Serum IgA levels are known to be lower in GSDs compared to other breeds. We detected significantly lower IgA levels in the CAD cases compared to controls (p = 1.1 × 10(-5)) in our study population. We also detected a separation within the GSD cohort, where dogs could be grouped into two different subpopulations. Disease prevalence differed significantly between the subpopulations contributing to population stratification (λ = 1.3), which was successfully corrected for using a mixed model approach. A genome-wide association analysis of CAD was performed (n cases = 91, n controls = 88). IgA levels were included in the model, due to the high correlation between CAD and low IgA levels. In addition, we detected a correlation between IgA levels and the age at the time of sampling (corr = 0.42, p = 3.0 × 10(-9)), thus age was included in the model. A genome-wide significant association was detected on chromosome 27 (praw = 3.1 × 10(-7), pgenome = 0.03). The total associated region was defined as a ~1.5-Mb-long haplotype including eight genes. Through targeted re-sequencing and additional genotyping of a subset of identified SNPs, we defined 11 smaller haplotype blocks within the associated region. Two blocks showed the strongest association to CAD. The ~209-kb region, defined by the two blocks, harbors only the PKP2 gene, encoding Plakophilin 2 expressed in the desmosomes and important for skin structure. Our results may yield further insight into the genetics behind both canine and human AD.

A meta-analysis of cambium phenology and growth: linear and non-linear patterns in conifers of the northern hemisphere

Background and Aims Ongoing global warming has been implicated in shifting phenological patterns such as the timing and duration of the growing season across a wide variety of ecosystems. Linear models are routinely used to extrapolate these observed shifts in phenology into the future and to estimate changes in associated ecosystem properties such as net primary productivity. Yet, in nature, linear relationships may be special cases. Biological processes frequently follow more complex, non-linear patterns according to limiting factors that generate shifts and discontinuities, or contain thresholds beyond which responses change abruptly. This study investigates to what extent cambium phenology is associated with xylem growth and differentiation across conifer species of the northern hemisphere. Methods Xylem cell production is compared with the periods of cambial activity and cell differentiation assessed on a weekly time scale on histological sections of cambium and wood tissue collected from the stems of nine species in Canada and Europe over 1–9 years per site from 1998 to 2011. Key Results The dynamics of xylogenesis were surprisingly homogeneous among conifer species, although dispersions from the average were obviously observed. Within the range analysed, the relationships between the phenological timings were linear, with several slopes showing values close to or not statistically different from 1. The relationships between the phenological timings and cell production were distinctly non-linear, and involved an exponential pattern. Conclusions The trees adjust their phenological timings according to linear patterns. Thus, shifts of one phenological phase are associated with synchronous and comparable shifts of the successive phases. However, small increases in the duration of xylogenesis could correspond to a substantial increase in cell production. The findings suggest that the length of the growing season and the resulting amount of growth could respond differently to changes in environmental conditions.

Reliability and quality of water isotope data collected with a lowbudget rain collector

RATIONALELow-budget rain collectors for water isotope analysis, such as the `ball-in-funnel type collector' (BiFC), are widely used in studies on stable water isotopes of rain. To date, however, an experimental quality assessment of such devices in relation to climatic factors does not exist. METHODSWe used Cavity Ring-Down Spectrometry (CRDS) to quantify the effects of evaporation on the O-18 values of reference water under controlled conditions as a function of the elapsed time between rainfall and collection for isotope analysis, the sample volume and the relative humidity (RH: 31% and 67%; 25 degrees C). The climate chamber conditions were chosen to reflect the warm and dry end of field conditions that favor evaporative enrichment (EE). We also tested the performance of the BiFC in the field, and compared our H-2/O-18 data obtained by isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) with those from the Swiss National Network for the Observation of Isotopes in the Water Cycle (ISOT). RESULTSThe EE increased with time, with a 1 increase in the O-18 values after 10days (RH: 25%; 25 degrees C; 35mL (corresponding to a 5mm rain event); p <0.001). The sample volume strongly affected the EE (max. value +1.5 parts per thousand for 7mL samples (i.e., 1mm rain events) after 72h at 31% and 67% RH; p <0.001), whereas the relative humidity had no significant effect. Using the BiFC in the field, we obtained very tight relationships of the H-2/O-18 values (r(2) 0.95) for three sites along an elevational gradient, not significantly different from that of the next ISOT station. CONCLUSIONSSince the chosen experimental conditions were extreme compared with the field conditions, it was concluded that the BiFC is a highly reliable and inexpensive collector of rainwater for isotope analysis. Copyright (c) 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The Early Activation Marker CD69 Regulates the Expression of Chemokines and CD4 T Cell Accumulation in Intestine

Migration of naïve and activated lymphocytes is regulated by the expression of various molecules such as chemokine receptors and ligands. CD69, the early activation marker of C-type lectin domain family, is also shown to regulate the lymphocyte migration by affecting their egress from the thymus and secondary lymphoid organs. Here, we aimed to investigate the role of CD69 in accumulation of CD4 T cells in intestine using murine models of inflammatory bowel disease. We found that genetic deletion of CD69 in mice increases the expression of the chemokines CCL-1, CXCL-10 and CCL-19 in CD4(+) T cells and/or CD4(-) cells. Efficient in vitro migration of CD69-deficient CD4 T cells toward the chemokine stimuli was the result of increased expression and/or affinity of chemokine receptors. In vivo CD69(-/-) CD4 T cells accumulate in the intestine in higher numbers than B6 CD4 T cells as observed in competitive homing assay, dextran sodium sulphate (DSS)-induced colitis and antigen-specific transfer colitis. In DSS colitis CD69(-/-) CD4 T cell accumulation in colonic lamina propria (cLP) was associated with increased expression of CCL-1, CXCL-10 and CCL-19 genes. Furthermore, treatment of DSS-administrated CD69(-/-) mice with the mixture of CCL-1, CXCL-10 and CCL-19 neutralizing Abs significantly decreased the histopathological signs of colitis. Transfer of OT-II×CD69(-/-) CD45RB(high) CD4 T cells into RAG(-/-) hosts induced CD4 T cell accumulation in cLP. This study showed CD69 as negative regulator of inflammatory responses in intestine as it decreases the expression of chemotactic receptors and ligands and reduces the accumulation of CD4 T cells in cLP during colitis.