Modelagem do produto interno bruto brasileiro utilizando modelos não lineares

O trabalho tem como objetivo aplicar uma modelagem não linear ao Produto Interno Bruto brasileiro. Para tanto foi testada a existência de não linearidade do processo gerador dos dados com a metodologia sugerida por Castle e Henry (2010). O teste consiste em verificar a persistência dos regressores não lineares no modelo linear irrestrito. A seguir a série é modelada a partir do modelo autoregressivo com limiar utilizando a abordagem geral para específico na seleção do modelo. O algoritmo Autometrics é utilizado para escolha do modelo não linear. Os resultados encontrados indicam que o Produto Interno Bruto do Brasil é melhor explicado por um modelo não linear com três mudanças de regime, que ocorrem no inicio dos anos 90, que, de fato, foi um período bastante volátil. Através da modelagem não linear existe o potencial para datação de ciclos, no entanto os resultados encontrados não foram suficientes para tal análise.

O mercado acionário brasileiro e a macroeconomia: um estudo sobre o impacto de indicadores macroeconômicos e da política monetária sobre diversos setores e índices de ações

Este trabalho consiste no estudo do tipo de correlação e previsibilidade existentes entre a bolsa brasileira, representada pelos índices Ibovespa e SmallCaps, e indicadores macroeconômicos, como produção industrial, inflação e Produto Interno Bruto. No processo, o mercado acionário é dividido setorialmente. Tal divisão tenta reduzir os riscos não sistêmicos através da diversificação de ações e se utiliza de um critério de liquidez pré-estabelecido. A parte final do trabalho estuda a relação desses setores com indicadores mais específicos da economia brasileira como crédito, inadimplência, vendas no varejo, produção e licenciamento de veículos.

Essays on economic growth

A fundamental question in development economics is why some economies are rich and others poor. To illustrate the income per capita gap across economies consider that the average gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of the richest 10 percent of economies in the year 2010 was a factor of 40-fold that of the poorest 10 percent of economies. In other words, the average person in a rich economy produces in just over 9 days what the average person in a poor economy produces in an entire year. What are the factors that can explain this difference in standard of living across the world today? With this in view, this dissertation is a conjunction of three essays on the economic growth field which we seek a possible responses to this question. The first essay investigates the existence of resource misallocation in the Brazilian manufacturing sector and measures possible distortions in it. Using a similar method of measurement to the one developed by Hsieh and Klenow (2009) and firm-level data for 1996-2011 we find evidence of misallocation in the manufacturing sector during the observed period. Moreover, our results show that misallocation has been growing since 2005, and it presents a non-smooth dynamic. Significantly, we find that the Brazilian manufacturing sector operates at about 50% of its efficient product. With this, if capital and labor were optimally reallocated between firms and sectors we would obtain an aggregate output growth of approximately 110-180% depending on the mode in which the capital share is measured. We also find that the economic crisis did not have a substantial effect on the total productivity factor or on the sector's misallocation. However, small firms in particular seem to be strongly affected in a global crisis. Furthermore, the effects described would be attenuated if we consider linkages and complementarity effects among sectors. Despite Brazil's well-known high tax burden, there is not evidence that this is the main source of resource misallocation. Moreover, there is a distinct pattern of structural change between the manufacturing sectors in industrialized countries and those in developing countries. Therefore, the second essay demonstrate that this pattern differs because there are some factors that distort the relative prices and also affect the output productivity. For this, we present a multi-sector model of economic growth, where distortions affect the relative prices and the allocation of inputs. This phenomenon imply that change of the production structure or perpetuation of the harmful structures to the growth rate of aggregate output. We also demonstrate that in an environment with majority decision, this distortion can be enhanced and depends on the initial distribution of firms. Furthermore, distortions in relative prices would lead to increases in the degree of misallocation of resources, and that imply that there are distinct patterns of structural changes between economies. Finally, the calibrated results of the framework developed here converge with the structural change observed in the firm-level data of the Brazilian manufacturing sector. Thereafter, using a cross-industry cross-country approach, the third essay investigates the existence of an optimal level of competition to enhance economic growth. With that in mind, we try to show that this optimal level is different from industrialized and under development economies due to the technology frontier distance, the terms of trade, and each economy's idiosyncratic characteristics. Therefore, the difference in competition industry-country level is a channel to explain the output for worker gap between countries. The theoretical and empirical results imply the existence of an inverted-U relationship between competition and growth: starting for an initially low level of competition, higher competition stimulates innovation and output growth; starting from a high initial level of competition, higher competition has a negative effect on innovation and output growth. Given on average industries in industrialized economies present higher competition level. With that if we control for the terms of trade and the industry-country fixed effect, if the industries of the developing economy operated under the same competition levels as of the industrialized ones, there is a potential increase of output of 0.2-1.0% per year. This effect on the output growth rate depends on the competition measurement used.

Efeitos de variáveis macroeconômicas no nível de liquidez de empresas brasileiras

Com a evolução dos mercados e a possibilidade de acesso a informações em tempo real, as empresas se encontram bastante expostas a variações em sua liquidez. Surge então uma necessidade de se estudar o que afeta sua operação e de que forma são afetadas por choques na economia. Este trabalho tem como objetivo investigar como variações de indicadores macroeconômicos, como por exemplo, mudanças na taxa de câmbio, no PIB, na inflação e na taxa de juros impactam no nível de liquidez corrente das empresas. Foram selecionados dados de empresas brasileiras ativas para o período de 2003 até 2011 (dados trimestrais), com ações negociadas na BM&FBovespa e não pertencentes ao setor financeiro e de seguros. Os resultados sugerem que o nível de liquidez das empresas é afetado por algumas variações de indicadores macroeconômicos. Verificou-se que variáveis como PIB, IBOVESPA e taxa de juros se relacionam positivamente com o índice de liquidez corrente. Já as variáveis câmbio e inflação se relacionam negativamente.

Planejameto municipal do turismo: diretrizes e perspectivas - o caso da SETURDE

Given the uncertainties of the environment in today's world, strategic planning is again discussed as an important tool to position the organization in future likely. To address this a more dynamic and less linear, trying to adapt the multiple realities, the method of scenarios can be one of the strategies to anticipate future designs. In the public sphere, an efficient implementation of human resources and financial managers require a new approach to the formulation of strategies. Tourism, in turn, presents itself as an important segment of the national economy shaped up as a major source of funds for the formation of the Gross Domestic Product - GDP - of states and municipalities. This study aims to know the guidelines and perspectives of municipal planning of tourism in the city of Natal/RN from the case by the representatives of the sector. The survey was developed based on a qualitative, exploratory, based on the case in the Secretaria Municipal de Turismo e Desenvolvimento Econômico - SETURDE. The results express that the body goes through a time of changes in its organizational structure and in defining its role with the local tourism. The national plan for tourism and the choice of Christmas as the host city for the World Cup in 2014 have stimulated interest in developing a formal strategic planning in the organization. However, when it comes to more complex tools, such as the method of future scenarios, the technical know its definition and importance for future actions. The results presented support the conclusion that the actions are designed intuitively and without complying with the scientific methods developed for this purpose, as the method of strategic scenarios. However, the evidence beginning to emerge from the plans and documents issued by the federal government, as well as the Secretary's own initiative, direct the actions of the body to coordinate and act as a fulcrum for local action to the increase in tourism

O Papel do Estado na promoção do Desenvolvimento Nacional: a utilização do instrumento do planejamento na expansão da oferta energética

The progress of a nation is closely linked to the energy supply that it has to develop its economic capabilities. The dependence of contemporary society for energy requires the continued expansion of the use of renewable energy, and implies coordinated action of the Democratic State in the delimitation of the best ways to make full use of energy. In periods of rapid development, countries need an increment of energy supplies superior to those of periods of regular economic growth. Energy demand generated by the condition of Brazil as an emerging country reveals the need for orderly expansion of energy supply. In reverse, lack of energy planning effectively paralyzes a country and generates incalculable losses in national socioeconomic development. The Brazilian Constitution abandoned the notion of development tied to the simple increase in the gross domestic product. The respect for the environment, sovereignty, national development, and especially the constant and growing supply of energy, promotes the advancement of national economic agents, and quenches the simple accounting increase in energy supply. Constitutional principles condition the rational use of energy potentials, in ensuring adequate supply of energy for the entire national territory. The Brazilian Ministry of Mines and Energy, through its agencies, government offices and companies, establishes and formulates policies and guidelines for energy in Brazil, playing an important role in national energy planning. National development is enhanced by the good performance of the state agencies responsible for planning the energy sector

Governos locais e políticas de promoção econômica: uma análise da promoção econômica nos municípios brasileiros com população acima de 50 mil habitantes

This work aims to analyze the policy of economic promotion in the Brazilian cities of medium and great size (with population above of 50.000 hab.). The objective of the research is to launch light in the debate on the regional and municipal development, presenting the recent hypotheses supplied by literature. Of complementary form, had for specific objective presents the results of the Research of Basic Information of Cities - PIM, of Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), in two surveys carried through together to the Brazilian local governments (1999 and 2009). It analyzes the instruments of economic promotion used by local governments and the influence of the development variables, as the Local Human Index of Development (HID-L) and the Local Gross Domestic Product (GDP-L). The research sample that factors as HID-L and GDP-L has significant influence in economic promotion of cities and must be taken in account in the definition of the local strategies of development

A relação entre os determinantes sociais em saúde e os investimentos setoriais e a mortalidade infantil em municípios brasileiros com mais de 80 mil habitantes

Investments in health have controversial influence on results of the health of populations, besides being subject rarely explored in literature. Moreover, from the 1970s, the social determinants of health have been consolidated in the disease process as multifactorial factors (social, economic, cultural, etc.) that directly or indirectly influence the occurrence of health problems of populations, as well as mortality rates. This study aimed to evaluate the influence of these investments and the social determinants of health on infant mortality and its neonatal and post-neonatal mortality. This is an ecological study, in which the sample was composed of Brazilians cities with over 80,000 inhabitants, avoiding fluctuations in mortality rates for common small populations, and ensure greater coverage of information systems on mortality and births Brazilians and, therefore, increase data consistency. To isolate the effect of investments in health, we used multiple linear regression. The socioeconomic indicators (p <0.001, p = 0.004, p <0.001), the inequality index (p <0.001, p = 0.001, p = 0.006) and coverage of prenatal visits (p <0.001, p <0.001; p = 0.005) were associated with infant mortality rate total, neonatal and post-neonatal, and the Gross Domestic Product per capita only influenced the overall infant mortality rate and neonatal (p=0.022; 0.045). Investments in health, in this model, lost statistical significance, showing no correlation with mortality rates among children under one year. We conclude that the social determinants of health has an influence on the variation in mortality rates of Brazilian cities, however the same was not observed for indicators of health investment

Lançando luzes sobre a gestão de operações do setor eletroeletrônico brasileiro

Este artigo tem como objetivo apresentar e discutir a gestão de operações no setor eletroeletrônico brasileiro. O setor eletroeletrônico é dos mais relevantes do Brasil, correspondendo a 4% do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB). Grande parte da literatura disponível centra-se na discussão de políticas para fortalecimento do setor sem, no entanto, discutir sua gestão de operações, ainda pouco conhecida. Para suprir essa carência da literatura, realizou-se uma pesquisa quantitativa, por meio de survey com empresas da Associação Brasileira da Indústria Elétrica e Eletrônica (Abinee). Os dados coletados foram complementados com dados secundários, traçando um panorama sobre o setor no Brasil. Os resultados indicam a necessidade de as empresas montadoras de produtos eletroeletrônicos investirem mais no uso de tecnologia da informação para ampliar a integração de processos, planejar e desenvolver produtos integrando os clientes, e com os fornecedores ampliar a adoção de práticas de gestão da cadeia de suprimentos. A originalidade deste artigo consiste em lançar luzes à gestão de operações de um setor economicamente importante gerando insights a estudiosos, praticantes e formuladores de políticas voltadas ao setor eletroeletrônico nacional.

Long term economic relationships from cointegration maps

We employ the Bayesian framework to define a cointegration measure aimed to represent long term relationships between time series. For visualization of these relationships we introduce a dissimilarity matrix and a map based on the sorting points into neighborhoods (SPIN) technique, which has been previously used to analyze large data sets from DNA arrays. We exemplify the technique in three data sets: US interest rates (USIR), monthly inflation rates and gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 1999

Includes bibliography

Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 2002

Includes bibliography

Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2007-2008: Macroeconomic policy and volatility

Includes bibliography

International trade in Latina America and the Caribbean 2009: crisis and recovery

Includes bibliography

Balance of payments constrained growth within a consistent stock-flow framework: an application to the economies of CARICOM

Includes bibliography