The Relationship of Built Environment and Weather with Bike Share –Evidence from the Pronto Bike Share System in Seattle

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

A review of two journals found that articles using multivariable logistic regression frequently did not report commonly recommended assumptions

Background and Objective: To examine if commonly recommended assumptions for multivariable logistic regression are addressed in two major epidemiological journals. Methods: Ninety-nine articles from the Journal of Clinical Epidemiology and the American Journal of Epidemiology were surveyed for 10 criteria: six dealing with computation and four with reporting multivariable logistic regression results. Results: Three of the 10 criteria were addressed in 50% or more of the articles. Statistical significance testing or confidence intervals were reported in all articles. Methods for selecting independent variables were described in 82%, and specific procedures used to generate the models were discussed in 65%. Fewer than 50% of the articles indicated if interactions were tested or met the recommended events per independent variable ratio of 10: 1. Fewer than 20% of the articles described conformity to a linear gradient, examined collinearity, reported information on validation procedures, goodness-of-fit, discrimination statistics, or provided complete information on variable coding. There was no significant difference (P >.05) in the proportion of articles meeting the criteria across the two journals. Conclusion: Articles reviewed frequently did not report commonly recommended assumptions for using multivariable logistic regression. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

On the estimation and comparison of short-rate models using the generalised method of moments

Subsequent to the influential paper of [Chan, K.C., Karolyi, G.A., Longstaff, F.A., Sanders, A.B., 1992. An empirical comparison of alternative models of the short-term interest rate. Journal of Finance 47, 1209-1227], the generalised method of moments (GMM) has been a popular technique for estimation and inference relating to continuous-time models of the short-term interest rate. GMM has been widely employed to estimate model parameters and to assess the goodness-of-fit of competing short-rate specifications. The current paper conducts a series of simulation experiments to document the bias and precision of GMM estimates of short-rate parameters, as well as the size and power of [Hansen, L.P., 1982. Large sample properties of generalised method of moments estimators. Econometrica 50, 1029-1054], J-test of over-identifying restrictions. While the J-test appears to have appropriate size and good power in sample sizes commonly encountered in the short-rate literature, GMM estimates of the speed of mean reversion are shown to be severely biased. Consequently, it is dangerous to draw strong conclusions about the strength of mean reversion using GMM. In contrast, the parameter capturing the levels effect, which is important in differentiating between competing short-rate specifications, is estimated with little bias. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Adaptive responses of wild mungbean (Vigna radiata ssp sublobata) to photo-thermal environment. I. Phenology

The phenology of 11 diverse accessions of wild mungbean was observed under natural and artificial photoperiod - temperature conditions, in order to examine whether genotypic differences might be attributed to adaptive responses to photo-thermal conditions. There was large variation in phenological response among accessions and across environments, much of which was due to differences in the duration of the pre-flowering phase. Accessions that flowered earlier tended to flower for longer, apart from 2 earlier flowering, inland Australian lines that were also earlier maturing. The patterns of response in time from sowing to flowering over environment were consistent with quantitative short-day photoperiodic adaptation, a conclusion supported by the effects of artificial day-length extension and by 'goodness of fit' of the observed responses to standard models relating rate of development to photoperiod and temperature. The fitted models indicated that rate of development towards flowering was hastened by warmer temperatures, and delayed by longer day lengths, with differential sensitivity between accessions to both factors. The models also suggested that photoperiod was more important for accessions collected closer to the equator, which were generally later flowering as a consequence. Conversely, temperature was relatively more important in lines from higher latitudes. Modelling also suggested that the period from first flowering to maturity was sensitive to photoperiod and temperature. Again, longer days appeared to prolong growth and delay maturity. However, cooler temperatures accelerated rather than slowed maturity, by suppressing further vegetative growth. The variation observed indicated that there is considerable scope for using the wild population to broaden the adaptation of cultivated mungbean. In particular, the unusual response of a late-flowering, photoperiod-insensitive accession warrants further study to establish whether the wild population contains a unique 'long juvenile' trait analogous to that being used for improving phenological adaptation in soybean.

The sensitivity of US banks' stock returns to interest and exchange rate changes

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of foreign exchange and interest rate changes on US banks’ stock returns. Design/methodology/approach – The approach employs an EGARCH model to account for the ARCH effects in daily returns. Most prior studies have used standard OLS estimation methods with the result that the presence of ARCH effects would have affected estimation efficiency. For comparative purposes, the standard OLS estimation method is also used to measure sensitivity. Findings – The findings are as follows: under the conditional t-distributional assumption, the EGARCH model generated a much better fit to the data although the goodness-of-fit of the model is not entirely satisfactory; the market index return accounts for most of the variation in stock returns at both the individual bank and portfolio levels; and the degree of sensitivity of the stock returns to interest rate and FX rate changes is not very pronounced despite the use of high frequency data. Earlier results had indicated that daily data provided greater evidence of exposure sensitivity. Practical implications – Assuming that banks do not hedge perfectly, these findings have important financial implications as they suggest that the hedging policies of the banks are not reflected in their stock prices. Alternatively, it is possible that different GARCH-type models might be more appropriate when modelling high frequency returns. Originality/value – The paper contributes to existing knowledge in the area by showing that ARCH effects do impact on measures of sensitivity.

Influence of ethical beliefs, national culture and institutions on preferences for HRM in Oman

Purpose – The paper seeks to investigate the association between ethical beliefs, aspects of national culture and national institutions, and preferences for specific human resource management practices in the Sultanate of Oman. Design/methodology/approach – A total of 712 individuals working in six organisations (both private and public sectors) responded to a self-administered questionnaire in the Sultanate of Oman. To test the raised research questions of the proposed framework, the methodology of structural equation models was used. Findings – The results highlight significant differences in the belief systems on the basis of different demographic characteristics. The findings also confirm impact of ethical beliefs, and aspects of national culture and national institutions on preferences for human resource management (HRM) practices. Research limitations/implications – Although the goodness-of-fit indexes confirmed the validity of the proposed operational model, some indices were attained at rather flexible levels. Practical implications – Studies on managerial beliefs and values can offer important insights into the extent that work is viewed as an integral life activity. Such information can help differentiate among managerial styles in various cultures, and in predicting managerial behaviour such as ethical decision-making. Based on such understanding, the findings can be used to educate government officials and outside consultants interested in Oman. Originality/value – The study contributes to the accumulation of knowledge about under-researched developing countries such as Oman, as limited data are available on HRM, value orientations and ethical beliefs' issues in this region.

Population pharmacokinetics of single-dose intravenous paracetamol in children

Background To determine the pharmacokinetics (PK) of a new i.v. formulation of paracetamol (Perfalgan) in children ≤15 yr of age. Methods After obtaining written informed consent, children under 16 yr of age were recruited to this study. Blood samples were obtained at 0, 15, 30 min, 1, 2, 4, 6, and 8 h after administration of a weight-dependent dose of i.v. paracetamol. Paracetamol concentration was measured using a validated high-performance liquid chromatographic assay with ultraviolet detection method, with a lower limit of quantification (LLOQ) of 900 pg on column and an intra-day coefficient of variation of 14.3% at the LLOQ. Population PK analysis was performed by non-linear mixed-effect modelling using NONMEM. Results One hundred and fifty-nine blood samples from 33 children aged 1.8–15 yr, weight 13.7–56 kg, were analysed. Data were best described by a two-compartment model. Only body weight as a covariate significantly improved the goodness of fit of the model. The final population models for paracetamol clearance (CL), V1 (central volume of distribution), Q (inter-compartmental clearance), and V2 (peripheral volume of distribution) were: 16.51×(WT/70)0.75, 28.4×(WT/70), 11.32×(WT/70)0.75, and 13.26×(WT/70), respectively (CL, Q in litres per hour, WT in kilograms, and V1 and V2 in litres). Conclusions In children aged 1.8–15 yr, the PK parameters for i.v. paracetamol were not influenced directly by age but were by total body weight and, using allometric size scaling, significantly affected the clearances (CL, Q) and volumes of distribution (V1, V2).

Density forecasts of crude-oil prices using option-implied and ARCH-type models

The predictive accuracy of competing crude-oil price forecast densities is investigated for the 1994–2006 period. Moving beyond standard ARCH type models that rely exclusively on past returns, we examine the benefits of utilizing the forward-looking information that is embedded in the prices of derivative contracts. Risk-neutral densities, obtained from panels of crude-oil option prices, are adjusted to reflect real-world risks using either a parametric or a non-parametric calibration approach. The relative performance of the models is evaluated for the entire support of the density, as well as for regions and intervals that are of special interest for the economic agent. We find that non-parametric adjustments of risk-neutral density forecasts perform significantly better than their parametric counterparts. Goodness-of-fit tests and out-of-sample likelihood comparisons favor forecast densities obtained by option prices and non-parametric calibration methods over those constructed using historical returns and simulated ARCH processes. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 31:727–754, 2011

Collocation, interpretation and explanation:the case of just any

This article discusses the question of compositionality by examining whether the indiscriminacy reading of the collocation of just with any can be shown to be a consequence of the schematic meaning-potential of each of these two items. A comparison of justwith other restrictive focus particles allows its schematic meaning to be defined as that of goodness of fit. Any is defined as representing an indefinite member of a set as extractable from the set in exactly the same way as each of the other members thereof. The collocation just any often gives rise to a scalar reading oriented towards the lowest value on the scale due to the fact that focus on the unconstrained extractability of a random indefinite item brings into consideration even marginal cases and the latter tend to be interpreted as situated on the lower end of the scale. The attention to low-end values also explains why just any is regularly found with the adjective old, the prepositional phrase at all and various devaluating expressions. It is concluded that the meanings of the component parts of this collocation do indeed account for the meaning of the whole, and that an appropriate methodology allows identification of linguistic meanings and their interrelations. © 2011 Elsevier B.V.

The enantioselective population pharmacokinetics of intravenous ketorolac in children using a stereoselective assay suitable for microanalysis

Objective: To describe the effect of age and body size on enantiomer selective pharmacokinetic (PK) of intravenous ketorolac in children using a microanalytical assay. Methods: Blood samples were obtained at 0, 15 and 30 min and at 1, 2, 4, 6, 8 and 12 h after a weight-dependent dose of ketorolac. Enantiomer concentration was measured using a liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry method. Non-linear mixed-effect modelling was used to assess PK parameters. Key findings: Data from 11 children (1.7–15.6 years, weight 10.7–67.4 kg) were best described by a two-compartment model for R(+), S(−) and racemic ketorolac. Only weight (WT) significantly improved the goodness of fit. The final population models were CL = 1.5 × (WT/46)0.75, V1 = 8.2 × (WT/46), Q = 3.4 × (WT/46)0.75, V2 = 7.9 × (WT/46), CL = 2.98 × (WT/46), V1 = 13.2 × (WT/46), Q = 2.8 × (WT/46)0.75, V2 = 51.5 × (WT/46), and CL = 1.1 × (WT/46)0.75, V1 = 4.9 × (WT/46), Q = 1.7 × (WT/46)0.75 and V2 = 6.3 × (WT/46)for R(+), S(−) and racemic ketorolac. Conclusions: Only body weight influenced the PK parameters for R(+) and S(−) ketorolac. Using allometric size scaling significantly affected the clearances (CL, Q) and volumes of distribution (V1, V2).

A question of fit:cultural and individual differences in interpersonal justice perceptions

This study examined the link between employees’ adult attachment orientations and perceptions of line managers’ interpersonal justice behaviors, and the moderating effect of national culture (collectivism). Participants from countries categorized as low collectivistic (N = 205) and high collectivistic (N = 136) completed an online survey. Attachment anxiety and avoidance were negatively related to interpersonal justice perceptions. Cultural differences did not moderate the effects of avoidance. However, the relationship between attachment anxiety and interpersonal justice was non-significant in the Southern Asia (more collectivistic) cultural cluster. Our findings indicate the importance of ‘fit’ between cultural relational values and individual attachment orientations in shaping interpersonal justice perceptions, and highlight the need for more non-western organizational justice research.

A Stochastic Approach for Finding of Semantically Related Words

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62P99, 68T50

The effect of vision congruence on employee empowerment, commitment, satisfaction, and performance

Five models delineating the person-situation fit controversy were developed and tested. Hypotheses were tested to determine the linkages between vision congruence, empowerment, locus of control, job satisfaction, organizational commitment, and employee performance. Vision was defined as a mental image of a possible and desirable future state of the organization.^ Data were collected from 213 employees in a major flower import company. Participants were from various organizational levels and ethnic backgrounds. The data collection procedure consisted of three parts. First, a profile analysis instrument was used which was developed employing a Q-sort based technique, to measure the vision congruence between the CEO and each employee. Second, employees completed a survey instrument which included scales measuring empowerment, locus of control, job satisfaction, organizational commitment, and social desirability. Third, supervisor performance ratings were gathered from employee files. Data analysis consisted of using Kendall's tau to measure the correlation between CEO's and each employee's vision. Path analyses were conducted using the EQS structural equation program to test five theoretical models for goodness-of-fit. Regression analysis was employed to test whether locus of control acted as a moderator variable.^ The results showed that vision congruence is significantly related to job satisfaction and employee commitment, and perceived empowerment acts as an intervening variable affecting employee outcomes. The study also found that people with an internal locus of control were more likely to feel empowered than were those with external beliefs. Implications of these findings for both researchers and practitioners are discussed and suggestions for future research directions are provided. ^

Development of safety performance functions for empirical Bayes estimation of crash reduction factors

Crash reduction factors (CRFs) are used to estimate the potential number of traffic crashes expected to be prevented from investment in safety improvement projects. The method used to develop CRFs in Florida has been based on the commonly used before-and-after approach. This approach suffers from a widely recognized problem known as regression-to-the-mean (RTM). The Empirical Bayes (EB) method has been introduced as a means to addressing the RTM problem. This method requires the information from both the treatment and reference sites in order to predict the expected number of crashes had the safety improvement projects at the treatment sites not been implemented. The information from the reference sites is estimated from a safety performance function (SPF), which is a mathematical relationship that links crashes to traffic exposure. The objective of this dissertation was to develop the SPFs for different functional classes of the Florida State Highway System. Crash data from years 2001 through 2003 along with traffic and geometric data were used in the SPF model development. SPFs for both rural and urban roadway categories were developed. The modeling data used were based on one-mile segments that contain homogeneous traffic and geometric conditions within each segment. Segments involving intersections were excluded. The scatter plots of data show that the relationships between crashes and traffic exposure are nonlinear, that crashes increase with traffic exposure in an increasing rate. Four regression models, namely, Poisson (PRM), Negative Binomial (NBRM), zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP), and zero-inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB), were fitted to the one-mile segment records for individual roadway categories. The best model was selected for each category based on a combination of the Likelihood Ratio test, the Vuong statistical test, and the Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC). The NBRM model was found to be appropriate for only one category and the ZINB model was found to be more appropriate for six other categories. The overall results show that the Negative Binomial distribution model generally provides a better fit for the data than the Poisson distribution model. In addition, the ZINB model was found to give the best fit when the count data exhibit excess zeros and over-dispersion for most of the roadway categories. While model validation shows that most data points fall within the 95% prediction intervals of the models developed, the Pearson goodness-of-fit measure does not show statistical significance. This is expected as traffic volume is only one of the many factors contributing to the overall crash experience, and that the SPFs are to be applied in conjunction with Accident Modification Factors (AMFs) to further account for the safety impacts of major geometric features before arriving at the final crash prediction. However, with improved traffic and crash data quality, the crash prediction power of SPF models may be further improved.

An examination of Lotka's law in the field of Library and Information Studies

The purpose of this study was to test Lotka’s law of scientific publication productivity using the methodology outlined by Pao (1985), in the field of Library and Information Studies (LIS). Lotka’s law has been sporadically tested in the field over the past 30+ years, but the results of these studies are inconclusive due to the varying methods employed by the researchers. ^ A data set of 1,856 citations that were found using the ISI Web of Knowledge databases were studied. The values of n and c were calculated to be 2.1 and 0.6418 (64.18%) respectively. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) one sample goodness-of-fit test was conducted at the 0.10 level of significance. The Dmax value is 0.022758 and the calculated critical value is 0.026562. It was determined that the null hypothesis stating that there is no difference in the observed distribution of publications and the distribution obtained using Lotka’s and Pao’s procedure could not be rejected. ^ This study finds that literature in the field of Library and Information Studies does conform to Lotka’s law with reliable results. As result, Lotka’s law can be used in LIS as a standardized means of measuring author publication productivity which will lead to findings that are comparable on many levels (e.g., department, institution, national). Lotka’s law can be employed as an empirically proven analytical tool to establish publication productivity benchmarks for faculty and faculty librarians. Recommendations for further study include (a) exploring the characteristics of the high and low producers; (b) finding a way to successfully account for collaborative contributions in the formula; and, (c) a detailed study of institutional policies concerning publication productivity and its impact on the appointment, tenure and promotion process of academic librarians. ^