Change detection as support for monitoring the dynamic of land around reservoir

The change detection technique was used in this study to provide preliminary information on the dynamics of land cover in the region over the western basin of the Tiete River. This area is characterized by sequence of reservoirs and intense agricultural activity, triggering series negative effects. One of the impacts is contamination and proliferation of aquatic organisms in these aquatics environments, increased by release of nutrients from human activities. This work was possible to observe a large switching classes and secondary vegetation bare land, probably related to agricultural activity.

Land Use, Freshwater Flows and Ecosystem Services in an Era of Global Change

The purpose of this thesis is to analyse interactions between freshwater flows, terrestrial ecosystems and human well-being. Freshwater management and policy has mainly focused on the liquid water part (surface and ground water run off) of the hydrological cycle including aquatic ecosystems. Although of great significance, this thesis shows that such a focus will not be sufficient for coping with freshwater related social-ecological vulnerability. The thesis illustrates that the terrestrial component of the hydrological cycle, reflected in vapour flows (or evapotranspiration), serves multiple functions in the human life-support system. A broader understanding of the interactions between terrestrial systems and freshwater flows is particularly important in light of present widespread land cover change in terrestrial ecosystems. The water vapour flows from continental ecosystems were quantified at a global scale in Paper I of the thesis. It was estimated that in order to sustain the majority of global terrestrial ecosystem services on which humanity depends, an annual water vapour flow of 63 000 km3/yr is needed, including 6800 km3/yr for crop production. In comparison, the annual human withdrawal of liquid water amounts to roughly 4000 km3/yr. A potential conflict between freshwater for future food production and for terrestrial ecosystem services was identified. Human redistribution of water vapour flows as a consequence of long-term land cover change was addressed at both continental (Australia) (Paper II) and global scales (Paper III). It was estimated that the annual vapour flow had decreased by 10% in Australia during the last 200 years. This is due to a decrease in woody vegetation for agricultural production. The reduction in vapour flows has caused severe problems with salinity of soils and rivers. The human-induced alteration of vapour flows was estimated at more than 15 times the volume of human-induced change in liquid water (Paper II).

Land use management in mountainous areas: combining ground-based and EO (Earth Observation) data to investigate the shallow landsliding susceptibility in the Duron valley (Trento, Italy).

Throughout the alpine domain, shallow landslides represent a serious geologic hazard, often causing severe damages to infrastructures, private properties, natural resources and in the most catastrophic events, threatening human lives. Landslides are a major factor of landscape evolution in mountainous and hilly regions and represent a critical issue for mountainous land management, since they cause loss of pastoral lands. In several alpine contexts, shallow landsliding distribution is strictly connected to the presence and condition of vegetation on the slopes. With the aid of high-resolution satellite images, it's possible to divide automatically the mountainous territory in land cover classes, which contribute with different magnitude to the stability of the slopes. The aim of this research is to combine EO (Earth Observation) land cover maps with ground-based measurements of the land cover properties. In order to achieve this goal, a new procedure has been developed to automatically detect grass mantle degradation patterns from satellite images. Moreover, innovative surveying techniques and instruments are tested to measure in situ the shear strength of grass mantle and the geomechanical and geotechnical properties of these alpine soils. Shallow landsliding distribution is assessed with the aid of physically based models, which use the EO-based map to distribute the resistance parameters across the landscape.

The Dynamics of Secondary Forest Landscapes in the Lower Mekong Basin: A Regional-Scale Analysis

Secondary forests in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) are increasingly recognized as a valuable component of land cover, providing ecosystem services and benefits for local users. A large proportion of secondary forests in the LMB, especially in the uplands, are maintained by swidden cultivation. In order to assess the regional-scale status and dynamic trends of secondary forests in the LMB, an analysis of existing regional land cover data for 1993 and 1997 was carried out and forms the basis of this paper. To gain insight into the full range of dynamics affecting secondary forests beyond net-change rates, cross-tabulation matrix analyses were performed. The investigations revealed that secondary forests make up the largest share of forest cover in the LMB, with over 80% located in Laos and Cambodia. The deforestation rates for secondary forests are 3 times higher than the rates for other forest categories and account for two-thirds of the total deforestation. These dynamics are particularly pronounced in the less advanced countries of the LMB, especially in Laos, where national policies and the opening up of national economies seem to be the main drivers of further degradation and loss of secondary forests.

The geography of large-scale land acquisitions: Analysing socio-ecological patterns of target contexts in the global South

This paper analyses local geographical contexts targeted by transnational large-scale land acquisitions (>200 ha per deal) in order to understand how emerging patterns of socio-ecological characteristics can be related to processes of large-scale foreign investment in land. Using a sample of 139 land deals georeferenced with high spatial accuracy, we first analyse their target contexts in terms of land cover, population density, accessibility, and indicators for agricultural potential. Three distinct patterns emerge from the analysis: densely populated and easily accessible croplands (35% of land deals); remote forestlands with lower population densities (34% of land deals); and moderately populated and moderately accessible shrub- or grasslands (26% of land deals). These patterns are consistent with processes described in the relevant case study literature, and they each involve distinct types of stakeholders and associated competition over land. We then repeat the often-cited analysis that postulates a link between land investments and target countries with abundant so-called “idle” or “marginal” lands as measured by yield gap and available suitable but uncultivated land; our methods differ from the earlier approach, however, in that we examine local context (10-km radius) rather than countries as a whole. The results show that earlier findings are disputable in terms of concepts, methods, and contents. Further, we reflect on methodologies for exploring linkages between socioecological patterns and land investment processes. Improving and enhancing large datasets of georeferenced land deals is an important next step; at the same time, careful choice of the spatial scale of analysis is crucial for ensuring compatibility between the spatial accuracy of land deal locations and the resolution of available geospatial data layers. Finally, we argue that new approaches and methods must be developed to empirically link socio-ecological patterns in target contexts to key determinants of land investment processes. This would help to improve the validity and the reach of our findings as an input for evidence-informed policy debates.

Linking livelihood strategies with a regional level landscape mosaic to explore trade-offs between forest conservation and human wellbeing in a Madagascar biodiversity hotspot

The north-eastern escarpment of Madagascar contains the island’s last remaining large-scale humid forest massifs surrounded by diverse small-scale agricultural mosaics. There is high deforestation mainly caused by shifting cultivation practiced by local land users to produce upland rice for subsistence. Today, large protected areas restrict land users’ access to forests to collect wood and other forest products. Moreover, they are no more able to expand their cultivated land, which leads to shorter shifting cultivation cycles and decreasing plot sizes for irrigated rice and cash crop cultivation. Cash crop production of clove and vanilla is exposed to risks such as extreme inter-annual price fluctuations, pests and cyclones. In the absence of work opportunities, agricultural extension services and micro-finance schemes people are stuck in a poverty trap. New development strategies are needed to mitigate the trade-offs between forest conservation and human well-being. As landscape composition and livelihood strategies vary across the region, these strategies need to be spatially differentiated to avoid implementing generic solutions, which do not fit the local context. However, up to date, little is known about the spatial patterns of shifting cultivation and other land use systems at the regional level. This is mainly due to the high spatial and temporal dynamics inherent to shifting cultivation, which makes it difficult to monitor the dynamics of this land use system with remote sensing methods. Furthermore, knowledge about land users’ livelihood strategies and the risks and opportunities they face stems from very few local case studies. To overcome this challenge, firstly, we used remote sensing data and a landscape mosaic approach to delineate the main landscape types at the regional level. Secondly, we developed a land user typology based on socio-ecological data from household surveys in 45 villages spread throughout the region. Combining the land user typology with the landscape mosaic map allowed us to reveal spatial patterns of the interaction between landscapes and people and to better understand the trade-offs between forest conservation and local wellbeing. While shifting cultivation systems are being transformed into more intensive permanent agricultural systems in many countries around the globe, Madagascar seems to be an exception to this trend. Linking land cover information to human-environmental interactions over large areas is crucial to designing policies and to inform decision making for a more sustainable development of this resource-rich but poverty-prone context.

Contextualizing local-scale point sample data using global-scale spatial datasets: Lessons learnt from the analysis of large-scale land acquisitions

This paper examines how the geospatial accuracy of samples and sample size influence conclusions from geospatial analyses. It does so using the example of a study investigating the global phenomenon of large-scale land acquisitions and the socio-ecological characteristics of the areas they target. First, we analysed land deal datasets of varying geospatial accuracy and varying sizes and compared the results in terms of land cover, population density, and two indicators for agricultural potential: yield gap and availability of uncultivated land that is suitable for rainfed agriculture. We found that an increase in geospatial accuracy led to a substantial and greater change in conclusions about the land cover types targeted than an increase in sample size, suggesting that using a sample of higher geospatial accuracy does more to improve results than using a larger sample. The same finding emerged for population density, yield gap, and the availability of uncultivated land suitable for rainfed agriculture. Furthermore, the statistical median proved to be more consistent than the mean when comparing the descriptive statistics for datasets of different geospatial accuracy. Second, we analysed effects of geospatial accuracy on estimations regarding the potential for advancing agricultural development in target contexts. Our results show that the target contexts of the majority of land deals in our sample whose geolocation is known with a high level of accuracy contain smaller amounts of suitable, but uncultivated land than regional- and national-scale averages suggest. Consequently, the more target contexts vary within a country, the more detailed the spatial scale of analysis has to be in order to draw meaningful conclusions about the phenomena under investigation. We therefore advise against using national-scale statistics to approximate or characterize phenomena that have a local-scale impact, particularly if key indicators vary widely within a country.

A fractional vegetation cover remote sensing product on pan-arctic scale with link to geotiff image

The paper presents first results of a pan-boreal scale land cover harmonization and classification. A methodology is presented that combines global and regional vegetation datasets to extract percentage cover information for different vegetation physiognomy and barren for the pan-arctic region within the ESA Data User Element Permafrost. Based on the legend description of each land cover product the datasets are harmonized into four LCCS (Land Cover Classification System) classifiers which are linked to the MODIS Vegetation Continuous Field (VCF) product. Harmonized land cover and Vegetation Continuous Fields products are combined to derive a best estimate of percentage cover information for trees, shrubs, herbaceous and barren areas for Russia. Future work will concentrate on the expansion of the developed methodology to the pan-arctic scale. Since the vegetation builds an isolation layer, which protects the permafrost from heat and cold temperatures, a degradation of this layer due to fire strongly influences the frozen conditions in the soil. Fire is an important disturbance factor which affects vast processes and dynamics in ecosystems (e.g. biomass, biodiversity, hydrology, etc.). Especially in North Eurasia the fire occupancy has dramatically increased in the last 50 years and has doubled in the 1990s with respect to the last five decades. A comparison of global and regional fire products has shown discrepancies between the amounts of burn scars detected by different algorithms and satellite data.

Implications of agricultural production, policy and land use changes on water resource assessment

Una gestión más eficiente y equitativa del agua a escala de cuenca no se puede centrar exclusivamente en el recurso hídrico en sí, sino también en otras políticas y disciplinas científicas. Existe un consenso creciente de que, además de la consideración de las cambiantes condiciones climáticas, es necesaria una integración de ámbitos de investigación tales como la agronomía, planificación del territorio y ciencias políticas y económicas a fin de satisfacer de manera sostenible las demandas de agua por parte de la sociedad y del medio natural. La Política Agrícola Común (PAC) es el principal motor de cambio en las tendencias de paisajes rurales y sistemas agrícolas, pero el deterioro del medio ambiente es ahora una de las principales preocupaciones. Uno de los cambios más relevantes se ha producido con la expansión e intensificación del olivar en España, principalmente con nuevas zonas de regadío o la conversión de olivares de secano a sistemas en regadío. Por otra parte, el cambio de las condiciones climáticas podría ejercer un papel importante en las tendencias negativas de las aportaciones a los ríos, pero no queda claro el papel que podrían estar jugando los cambios de uso de suelo y cobertura vegetal sobre las tendencias negativas de caudal observadas. Esta tesis tiene como objetivo mejorar el conocimiento de los efectos de la producción agrícola, política agraria y cambios de uso de suelo y cobertura vegetal sobre las condiciones de calidad del agua, respuesta hidrológica y apropiación del agua por parte de la sociedad. En primer lugar, el estudio determina las tendencias existentes de nitratos y sólidos en suspensión en las aguas superficiales de la cuenca del río Guadalquivir durante el periodo de 1998 a 2009. Desde una perspectiva de política agraria, la investigación trata de evaluar mediante un análisis de datos de panel las principales variables, incluyendo la reforma de la PAC de 2003, que están teniendo una influencia en ambos indicadores de calidad. En segundo lugar, la apropiación del agua y el nivel de contaminación por nitratos debido a la producción del aceite de oliva en España se determinan con una evaluación de la huella hídrica (HH), teniendo en cuenta una variabilidad espacial y temporal a largo de las provincias españolas y entre 1997 y 2008. Por último, la tesis analiza los efectos de los cambios de uso de suelo y cobertura vegetal sobre las tendencias negativas observadas en la zona alta del Turia, cabecera de la cuenca del río Júcar, durante el periodo 1973-2008 mediante una modelización ecohidrológica. En la cuenca del Guadalquivir cerca del 20% de las estaciones de monitoreo muestran tendencias significativas, lineales o cuadráticas, para cada indicador de calidad de agua. La mayoría de las tendencias significativas en nitratos están aumentando, y la mayoría de tendencias cuadráticas muestran un patrón en forma de U. Los modelos de regresión de datos de panel muestran que las variables más importantes que empeoran ambos indicadores de calidad del agua son la intensificación de biomasa y las exportaciones de ambos indicadores de calidad procedentes de aguas arriba. En regiones en las que el abandono agrícola y/o desintensificación han tenido lugar han mejorado las condiciones de calidad del agua. Para los nitratos, el desacoplamiento de las subvenciones a la agricultura y la reducción de la cuantía de las subvenciones a tierras de regadío subyacen en la reducción observada de la concentración de nitratos. Las medidas de modernización de regadíos y el establecimiento de zonas vulnerables a nitratos reducen la concentración en subcuencas que muestran una tendencia creciente de nitratos. Sin embargo, el efecto de las exportaciones de nitratos procedente de aguas arriba, la intensificación de la biomasa y los precios de los cultivos presentan un mayor peso, explicando la tendencia creciente observada de nitratos. Para los sólidos en suspensión, no queda de forma evidente si el proceso de desacoplamiento ha influido negativa o positivamente. Sin embargo, los mayores valores de las ayudas agrarias aún ligadas a la producción, en particular en zonas de regadío, conllevan un aumento de las tasas de erosión. Aunque la cuenca del Guadalquivir ha aumentado la producción agrícola y la eficiencia del uso del agua, el problema de las altas tasas de erosión aún no ha sido mitigado adecuadamente. El estudio de la huella hídrica (HH) revela que en 1 L de aceite de oliva español más del 99,5% de la HH está relacionado con la producción de la aceituna, mientras que menos del 0,5% se debe a otros componentes, es decir, a la botella, tapón y etiqueta. Durante el período estudiado, la HH verde en secano y en regadío representa alrededor del 72% y 12%, respectivamente, del total de la HH. Las HHs azul y gris representan 6% y 10%, respectivamente. La producción de aceitunas se concentra en regiones con una HH menor por unidad de producto. La producción de aceite de oliva ha aumentado su productividad del agua durante 1997-2008, incentivado por los crecientes precios del aceite, como también lo ha hecho la cantidad de exportaciones de agua virtual. De hecho, las mayores zonas productoras presentan una eficiencia alta del uso y de productividad del agua, así como un menor potencial de contaminación por nitratos. Pero en estas zonas se ve a la vez reflejado un aumento de presión sobre los recursos hídricos locales. El aumento de extracciones de agua subterránea relacionadas con las exportaciones de aceite de oliva podría añadir una mayor presión a la ya estresada cuenca del Guadalquivir, mostrando la necesidad de equilibrar las fuerzas del mercado con los recursos locales disponibles. Los cambios de uso de suelo y cobertura vegetal juegan un papel importante en el balance del agua de la cuenca alta del Turia, pero no son el principal motor que sustenta la reducción observada de caudal. El aumento de la temperatura es el principal factor que explica las mayores tasas de evapotranspiración y la reducción de caudales. Sin embargo, los cambios de uso de suelo y el cambio climático han tenido un efecto compensatorio en la respuesta hidrológica. Por un lado, el caudal se ha visto afectado negativamente por el aumento de la temperatura, mientras que los cambios de uso de suelo y cobertura vegetal han compensado positivamente con una reducción de las tasas de evapotranspiración, gracias a los procesos de disminución de la densidad de matorral y de degradación forestal. El estudio proporciona una visión que fortalece la interdisciplinariedad entre la planificación hidrológica y territorial, destacando la necesidad de incluir las implicaciones de los cambios de uso de suelo y cobertura vegetal en futuros planes hidrológicos. Estos hallazgos son valiosos para la gestión de la cuenca del río Turia, y el enfoque empleado es útil para la determinación del peso de los cambios de uso de suelo y cobertura vegetal en la respuesta hidrológica en otras regiones. ABSTRACT Achieving a more efficient and equitable water management at catchment scale does not only rely on the water resource itself, but also on other policies and scientific knowledge. There is a growing consensus that, in addition to consideration of changing climate conditions, integration with research areas such as agronomy, land use planning and economics and political science is required to meet sustainably the societal and environmental water demands. The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is a main driver for trends in rural landscapes and agricultural systems, but environmental deterioration is now a principal concern. One of the most relevant changes has occurred with the expansion and intensification of olive orchards in Spain, taking place mainly with new irrigated areas or with the conversion from rainfed to irrigated systems. Moreover, changing climate conditions might exert a major role on water yield trends, but it remains unclear the role that ongoing land use and land cover changes (LULCC) might have on observed river flow trends. This thesis aims to improve the understanding of the effects of agricultural production, policies and LULCC on water quality conditions, hydrological response and human water appropriation. Firstly, the study determines the existing trends for nitrates and suspended solids in the Guadalquivir river basin’s surface waters (south Spain) during the period from 1998 to 2009. From a policy perspective, the research tries to assess with panel data analysis the main drivers, including the 2003 CAP reform, which are having an influence on both water quality indicators. Secondly, water appropriation and nitrate pollution level originating from the production of olive oil in Spain is determined with a water footprint (WF) assessment, considering a spatial temporal variability across the Spanish provinces and from 1997 to 2008 years. Finally, the thesis analyzes the effects of the LULCC on the observed negative trends over the period 1973-2008 in the Upper Turia basin, headwaters of the Júcar river demarcation (east Spain), with ecohydrological modeling. In the Guadalquivir river basin about 20% of monitoring stations show significant trends, linear or quadratic, for each water quality indicator. Most significant trends of nitrates are augmenting than decreasing, and most significant quadratic terms of both indicators exhibit U-shaped patterns. The panel data models show that the most important drivers that are worsening nitrates and suspended solids in the basin are biomass intensification and exports of both water quality indicators from upland regions. In regions that agricultural abandonment and/or de-intensification have taken place the water quality conditions have improved. For nitrates, the decoupling of agricultural subsidies and the reduction of the amount of subsidies to irrigated land underlie the observed reduction of nitrates concentration. Measures of irrigation modernization and establishment of vulnerable zones to nitrates ameliorate the concentration of nitrates in subbasins showing an increasing trend. However, the effect of nitrates load from upland areas, intensification of biomass and crop prices present a greater weight leading to the final increasing trend in this subbasins group, where annual crops dominate. For suspended solids, there is no clear evidence that decoupling process have influenced negatively or positively. Nevertheless, greater values of subsidies still linked to production, particularly in irrigated regions, lead to increasing erosion rates. Although agricultural production has augmented in the basin and water efficiency in the agricultural sector has improved, the issue of high erosion rates has not yet been properly faced. The water footprint (WF) assessment reveals that for 1 L Spanish olive oil more than 99.5% of the WF is related to the olive fruit production, whereas less than 0.5% is due to other components i.e. bottle, cap and label. Over the studied period, the green WF in rainfed and irrigated systems represents about 72% and 12%, respectively, of the total WF. Blue and grey WFs represent 6% and 10%, respectively. The olive production is concentrated in regions with the smallest WF per unit of product. The olive oil production has increased its apparent water productivity from 1997 to 2008 incentivized by growing trade prices, but also did the amount of virtual water exports. In fact, the largest producing areas present high water use efficiency per product and apparent water productivity as well as less nitrates pollution potential, but this enhances the pressure on the available water resources. Increasing groundwater abstractions related to olive oil exports may add further pressure to the already stressed Guadalquivir basin. This shows the need to balance the market forces with the available local resources. Concerning the effects of LULCC on the Upper Turia basin’s streamflow, LULCC play a significant role on the water balance, but it is not the main driver underpinning the observed reduction on Turia's streamflow. Increasing mean temperature is the main factor supporting larger evapotranspiration rates and streamflow reduction. In fact, LULCC and climate change have had an offsetting effect on the streamflow generation during the study period. While streamflow has been negatively affected by increasing temperature, ongoing LULCC have positively compensated with reduced evapotranspiration rates, thanks to mainly shrubland clearing and forest degradation processes. The research provides insight for strengthening the interdisciplinarity between hydrological and spatial planning, highlighting the need to include the implications of LULCC in future hydrological plans. These findings are valuable for the management of the Turia river basin, as well as a useful approach for the determination of the weight of LULCC on the hydrological response in other regions.

Downscaled land surface temperatures obtained by a particle smoothing approach, with links to NetCDF files

This dataset contains continuous time series of land surface temperature (LST) at spatial resolution of 300m around the 12 experimental sites of the PAGE21 project (grant agreement number 282700, funded by the EC seventh Framework Program theme FP7-ENV-2011). This dataset was produced from hourly LST time series at 25km scale, retrieved from SSM/I data (André et al., 2015, doi:10.1016/j.rse.2015.01.028) and downscaled to 300m using a dynamic model and a particle smoothing approach. This methodology is based on two main assumptions. First, LST spatial variability is mostly explained by land cover and soil hydric state. Second, LST is unique for a land cover class within the low resolution pixel. Given these hypotheses, this variable can be estimated using a land cover map and a physically based land surface model constrained with observations using a data assimilation process. This methodology described in Mechri et al. (2014, doi:10.1002/2013JD020354) was applied to the ORCHIDEE land surface model (Krinner et al., 2005, doi:10.1029/2003GB002199) to estimate prior values of each land cover class provided by the ESA CCI-Land Cover product (Bontemps et al., 2013) at 300m resolution . The assimilation process (particle smoother) consists in simulating ensemble of LST time series for each land cover class and for a large number of parameter sets. For each parameter set, the resulting temperatures are aggregated considering the grid fraction of each land cover and compared to the coarse observations. Miniminizing the distance between the aggregated model solutions and the observations allow us to select the simulated LST and the corresponding parameter sets which fit the observations most closely. The retained parameter sets are then duplicated and randomly perturbed before simulating the next time window. At the end, the most likely LST of each land cover class are estimated and used to reconstruct LST maps at 300m resolution using ESA CCI-Land Cover. The resulting temperature maps on which ice pixels were masked, are provided at daily time step during the nine-year analysis period (2000-2009).

Regional patterns of agricultural land use and deforestation in Colombia

An expanding human population and associated demands for goods and services continues to exert an increasing pressure on ecological systems. Although the rate of expansion of agricultural lands has slowed since 1960, rapid deforestation still occurs in many tropical countries, including Colombia. However, the location and extent of deforestation and associated ecological impacts within tropical countries is often not well known. The primary aim of this study was to obtain an understanding of the spatial patterns of forest conversion for agricultural land uses in Colombia. We modeled native forest conversion in Colombia at regional and national-levels using logistic regression and classification trees. We investigated the impact of ignoring the regional variability of model parameters, and identified biophysical and socioeconomic factors that best explain the current spatial pattern and inter-regional variation in forest cover. We validated our predictions for the Amazon region using MODIS satellite imagery. The regional-level classification tree that accounted for regional heterogeneity had the greatest discrimination ability. Factors related to accessibility (distance to roads and towns) were related to the presence of forest cover, although this relationship varied regionally. In order to identify areas with a high risk of deforestation, we used predictions from the best model, refined by areas with rural population growth rates of > 2%. We ranked forest ecosystem types in terms of levels of threat of conversion. Our results provide useful inputs to planning for biodiversity conservation in Colombia, by identifying areas and ecosystem types that are vulnerable to deforestation. Several of the predicted deforestation hotspots coincide with areas that are outstanding in terms of biodiversity value.

A tapestry of land uses and land covers typify our study site. Here, a commercial farm surrounds a new residential development.

This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation through the Florida Coastal Everglades Long-Term Ecological Research program under Cooperative Agreements #DBI-0620409 and #DEB-9910514. This image is made available for non-commercial or educational use only.

Hydro-Meteorology and Water Budget of the Mara River Basin Under Land Use Change Scenarios

Mara is a transboundary river located in Kenya and Tanzania and considered to be an important life line to the inhabitants of the Mara-Serengeti ecosystem. It is also a source of water for domestic water supply, irrigation, livestock and wildlife. The alarming increase of water demand as well as the decline in the river flow in recent years has been a major challenge for water resource managers and stakeholders. This has necessitated the knowledge of the available water resources in the basin at different times of the year. Historical rainfall, minimum and maximum stream flows were analyzed. Inter and intra-annual variability of trends in streamflow are discussed. Landsat imagery was utilized in order to analyze the land use land cover in the upper Mara River basin. The semi-distributed hydrological model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to model the basin water balance and understand the hydrologic effect of the recent land use changes from forest-to-agriculture. The results of this study provided the potential hydrological impacts of three land use change scenarios in the upper Mara River basin. It also adds to the existing literature and knowledge base with a view of promoting better land use management practices in the basin.

Macroinvertebrate abundance in montane tropical streams of varying land-use, Ecuador

Despite the importance of tropical montane cloud forest streams, studies investigating aquatic communities in these regions are rare and knowledge on the driving factors of community structure is missing. The objectives of this study therefore were to understand how land-use influences habitat structure and macroinvertebrate communities in cloud forest streams of southern Ecuador. We evaluated these relationships in headwater streams with variable land cover, using multivariate statistics to identify relationships between key habitat variables and assemblage structure, and to resolve differences in composition among sites. Results show that shading intensity, substrate type and pH were the environmental parameters most closely related to variation in community composition observed among sites. In addition, macroinvertebrate density and partly diversity was lower in forested sites, possibly because the pH in forested streams lowered to almost 5 during spates. Standard bioindicator metrics were unable to detect the changes in assemblage structure between disturbed and forested streams. In general, our results indicate that tropical montane headwater streams are complex and heterogeneous ecosystems with low invertebrate densities. We also found that some amount of disturbance, i.e. patchy deforestation, can lead at least initially to an increase in macroinvertebrate taxa richness of these streams.