A descriptive and exploratory analysis of occupational injuries at a chemical manufacturing facility

A retrospective study of 1353 occupational injuries occurring at a chemical manufacturing facility in Houston, Texas from January, 1982 through May, 1988 was performed to investigate the etiology of the occupational injury process. Injury incidence rates were calculated for various sub-populations of workers to determine differences in the risk of injury for various groups. Linear modeling techniques were used to determine the association between certain collected independent variables and severity of an injury event. Finally, two sub-groups of the worker population, shiftworkers and injury recidivists, were examined. An injury recidivist as defined is any worker experiencing one or more injury per year. Overall, female shiftworkers evidenced the highest average injury incidence rate compared to all other worker groups analyzed. Although the female shiftworkers were younger and less experienced, the etiology of their increased risk of injury remains unclear, although the rigors of performing shiftwork itself or ergonomic factors are suspect. In general, females were injured more frequently than males, but they did not incur more severe injuries. For all workers, many injuries were caused by erroneous or foregone training, and risk taking behaviors. Injuries of these types are avoidable. The distribution of injuries by severity level was bimodal; either injuries were of minor or major severity with only a small number of cases falling in between. Of the variables collected, only the type of injury incurred and the worker's titlecode were statistically significantly associated with injury severity. Shiftworkers did not sustain more severe injuries than other worker groups. Injury to shiftworkers varied as a 24-hour pattern; the greatest number occurred between 1200-1230 hours, (p = 0.002) by Cosinor analysis. Recidivists made up 3.3% of the population (23 males and 10 females), yet suffered 17.8% of the injuries. Although past research suggests that injury recidivism is a random statistical event, analysis of the data by logistic regression implicates gender, area worked, age and job titlecode as being statistically significantly related to injury recidivism at this facility. ^

Introducing non-linear analysis into sustained speech characterization to improve sleep apnea detection

We present a novel approach for detecting severe obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) cases by introducing non-linear analysis into sustained speech characterization. The proposed scheme was designed for providing additional information into our baseline system, built on top of state-of-the-art cepstral domain modeling techniques, aiming to improve accuracy rates. This new information is lightly correlated with our previous MFCC modeling of sustained speech and uncorrelated with the information in our continuous speech modeling scheme. Tests have been performed to evaluate the improvement for our detection task, based on sustained speech as well as combined with a continuous speech classifier, resulting in a 10% relative reduction in classification for the first and a 33% relative reduction for the fused scheme. Results encourage us to consider the existence of non-linear effects on OSA patients' voices, and to think about tools which could be used to improve short-time analysis.

Improving automatic detection of obstructive sleep apnea through nonlinear analysis of sustained speech

We present a novel approach for the detection of severe obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) based on patients' voices introducing nonlinear measures to describe sustained speech dynamics. Nonlinear features were combined with state-of-the-art speech recognition systems using statistical modeling techniques (Gaussian mixture models, GMMs) over cepstral parameterization (MFCC) for both continuous and sustained speech. Tests were performed on a database including speech records from both severe OSA and control speakers. A 10 % relative reduction in classification error was obtained for sustained speech when combining MFCC-GMM and nonlinear features, and 33 % when fusing nonlinear features with both sustained and continuous MFCC-GMM. Accuracy reached 88.5 % allowing the system to be used in OSA early detection. Tests showed that nonlinear features and MFCCs are lightly correlated on sustained speech, but uncorrelated on continuous speech. Results also suggest the existence of nonlinear effects in OSA patients' voices, which should be found in continuous speech.

A multi-level analysis of innovation diffusion: The case of solar photovoltaic systems in Germany and the disillusion of grid parity

¿Suministrarán las fuentes de energía renovables toda la energía que el mundo necesita algún día? Algunos argumentan que sí, mientras que otros dicen que no. Sin embargo, en algunas regiones del mundo, la producción de electricidad a través de fuentes de energía renovables ya está en una etapa prometedora de desarrollo en la que su costo de generación de electricidad compite con fuentes de electricidad convencionales, como por ejemplo la paridad de red. Este logro ha sido respaldado por el aumento de la eficiencia de la tecnología, la reducción de los costos de producción y, sobre todo, los años de intervenciones políticas de apoyo financiero. La difusión de los sistemas solares fotovoltaicos (PV) en Alemania es un ejemplo relevante. Alemania no sólo es el país líder en términos de capacidad instalada de sistemas fotovoltaicos (PV) en todo el mundo, sino también uno de los países pioneros donde la paridad de red se ha logrado recientemente. No obstante, podría haber una nube en el horizonte. La tasa de difusión ha comenzado a declinar en muchas regiones. Además, las empresas solares locales – que se sabe son importantes impulsores de la difusión – han comenzado a enfrentar dificultades para manejar sus negocios. Estos acontecimientos plantean algunas preguntas importantes: ¿Es ésta una disminución temporal en la difusión? ¿Los adoptantes continuarán instalando sistemas fotovoltaicos? ¿Qué pasa con los modelos de negocio de las empresas solares locales? Con base en el caso de los sistemas fotovoltaicos en Alemania a través de un análisis multinivel y dos revisiones literarias complementarias, esta tesis doctoral extiende el debate proporcionando riqueza múltiple de datos empíricos en un conocimiento de contexto limitado. El primer análisis se basa en la perspectiva del adoptante, que explora el nivel "micro" y el proceso social que subyace a la adopción de los sistemas fotovoltaicos. El segundo análisis es una perspectiva a nivel de empresa, que explora los modelos de negocio de las empresas y sus roles impulsores en la difusión de los sistemas fotovoltaicos. El tercero análisis es una perspectiva regional, la cual explora el nivel "meso", el proceso social que subyace a la adopción de sistemas fotovoltaicos y sus técnicas de modelado. Los resultados incluyen implicaciones tanto para académicos como políticos, no sólo sobre las innovaciones en energía renovable relativas a la paridad de red, sino también, de manera inductiva, sobre las innovaciones ambientales impulsadas por las políticas que logren la competitividad de costes. ABSTRACT Will renewable energy sources supply all of the world energy needs one day? Some argue yes, while others say no. However, in some regions of the world, the electricity production through renewable energy sources is already at a promising stage of development at which their electricity generation costs compete with conventional electricity sources’, i.e., grid parity. This achievement has been underpinned by the increase of technology efficiency, reduction of production costs and, above all, years of policy interventions of providing financial support. The diffusion of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in Germany is an important frontrunner case in point. Germany is not only the top country in terms of installed PV systems’ capacity worldwide but also one of the pioneer countries where the grid parity has recently been achieved. However, there might be a cloud on the horizon. The diffusion rate has started to decline in many regions. In addition, local solar firms – which are known to be important drivers of diffusion – have started to face difficulties to run their businesses. These developments raise some important questions: Is this a temporary decline on diffusion? Will adopters continue to install PV systems? What about the business models of the local solar firms? Based on the case of PV systems in Germany through a multi-level analysis and two complementary literature reviews, this PhD Dissertation extends the debate by providing multiple wealth of empirical details in a context-limited knowledge. The first analysis is based on the adopter perspective, which explores the “micro” level and the social process underlying the adoption of PV systems. The second one is a firm-level perspective, which explores the business models of firms and their driving roles in diffusion of PV systems. The third one is a regional perspective, which explores the “meso” level, i.e., the social process underlying the adoption of PV systems and its modeling techniques. The results include implications for both scholars and policymakers, not only about renewable energy innovations at grid parity, but also in an inductive manner, about policy-driven environmental innovations that achieve the cost competiveness.

Nucleic acid duplexes incorporating a dissociable covalent base pair

We have used molecular modeling techniques to design a dissociable covalently bonded base pair that can replace a Watson-Crick base pair in a nucleic acid with minimal distortion of the structure of the double helix. We introduced this base pair into a potential precursor of a nucleic acid double helix by chemical synthesis and have demonstrated efficient nonenzymatic template-directed ligation of the free hydroxyl groups of the base pair with appropriate short oligonucleotides. The nonenzymatic ligation reactions, which are characteristic of base paired nucleic acid structures, are abolished when the covalent base pair is reduced and becomes noncoplanar. This suggests that the covalent base pair linking the two strands in the duplex is compatible with a minimally distorted nucleic acid double-helical structure.

Assessing climate impacts

Assessing climate impacts involves identifying sources and characteristics of climate variability, and mitigating potential negative impacts of that variability. Associated research focuses on climate driving mechanisms, biosphere–hydrosphere responses and mediation, and human responses. Examples of climate impacts come from 1998 flooding in the Yangtze River Basin and hurricanes in the Caribbean and Central America. Although we have limited understanding of the fundamental driving-response interactions associated with climate variability, increasingly powerful measurement and modeling techniques make assessing climate impacts a rapidly developing frontier of science.

State of the art in continuous speech recognition.

In the past decade, tremendous advances in the state of the art of automatic speech recognition by machine have taken place. A reduction in the word error rate by more than a factor of 5 and an increase in recognition speeds by several orders of magnitude (brought about by a combination of faster recognition search algorithms and more powerful computers), have combined to make high-accuracy, speaker-independent, continuous speech recognition for large vocabularies possible in real time, on off-the-shelf workstations, without the aid of special hardware. These advances promise to make speech recognition technology readily available to the general public. This paper focuses on the speech recognition advances made through better speech modeling techniques, chiefly through more accurate mathematical modeling of speech sounds.

Aplicação de modelos de defeitos na geração de conjuntos de teste completos a partir de Sistemas de Transição com Entrada/Saída

O Teste Baseado em Modelos (TBM) emergiu como uma estratégia promissora para minimizar problemas relacionados à falta de tempo e recursos em teste de software e visa verificar se a implementação sob teste está em conformidade com sua especificação. Casos de teste são gerados automaticamente a partir de modelos comportamentais produzidos durante o ciclo de desenvolvimento de software. Entre as técnicas de modelagem existentes, Sistemas de Transição com Entrada/Saída (do inglês, Input/Output Transition Systems - IOTSs), são modelos amplamente utilizados no TBM por serem mais expressivos do que Máquinas de Estado Finito (MEFs). Apesar dos métodos existentes para geração de testes a partir de IOTSs, o problema da seleção de casos de testes é um tópico difícil e importante. Os métodos existentes para IOTS são não-determinísticos, ao contrário da teoria existente para MEFs, que fornece garantia de cobertura completa com base em um modelo de defeitos. Esta tese investiga a aplicação de modelos de defeitos em métodos determinísticos de geração de testes a partir de IOTSs. Foi proposto um método para geração de conjuntos de teste com base no método W para MEFs. O método gera conjuntos de teste de forma determinística além de satisfazer condições de suficiência de cobertura da especificação e de todos os defeitos do domínio de defeitos definido. Estudos empíricos avaliaram a aplicabilidade e eficácia do método proposto: resultados experimentais para analisar o custo de geração de conjuntos de teste utilizando IOTSs gerados aleatoriamente e um estudo de caso com especificações da indústria mostram a efetividade dos conjuntos gerados em relação ao método tradicional de Tretmans.

Mitigação de falhas críticas em sistemas produtivos.

O cenário competitivo e globalizado em que as empresas estão inseridas, sobretudo a partir do século XXI, associados a ciclos de vida cada vez menores dos produtos, rigorosos requisitos de qualidade, além de políticas de preservação do meio ambiente, com redução de consumo energético e de recursos hídricos, somadas às exigências legais de melhores condições de trabalho, resultaram em uma quebra de paradigma nos processos produtivos até então concebidos. Como solução a este novo cenário produtivo pode-se citar o extenso uso da automação industrial, fato que resultou em sistemas cada vez mais complexos, tanto do ponto de vista estrutural, em função do elevado número de componentes, quanto da complexidade dos sistemas de controle. A previsibilidade de todos os estados possíveis do sistema torna-se praticamente impossível. Dentre os estados possíveis pode-se citar os estados de falha que, dependendo da severidade do efeito associado à sua ocorrência, podem resultar em sérios danos para o homem, o meio ambiente e às próprias instalações, caso não sejam corretamente diagnosticados e tratados. Fatos recentes de catástrofes relacionadas à sistemas produtivos revelam a necessidade de se implementar medidas para prevenir e para mitigar os efeitos da ocorrência de falhas, com o objetivo de se evitar a ocorrência de catástrofes. De acordo com especialistas, os Sistemas Instrumentados de Segurança SIS, referenciados em normas como a IEC 61508 e IEC 61511, são uma solução para este tipo de problema. Trabalhos publicados tratam de métodos para a implementação de camadas SIS de prevenção, porém com escassez de trabalhos para camadas SIS de mitigação. Em função do desconhecimento da dinâmica do sistema em estado de falha, técnicas tradicionais de modelagem tornam-se inviáveis. Neste caso, o uso de inteligência artificial, como por exemplo a lógica fuzzy, pode se tornar uma solução para o desenvolvimento do algoritmo de controle, associadas a ferramentas de edição, modelagem e geração dos códigos de controle. A proposta deste trabalho é apresentar uma sistemática para a implementação de um sistema de controle para a mitigação de falhas críticas em sistemas produtivos, com referência às normas IEC 61508/61511, com ação antecipativa à ocorrência de catástrofes.

Empowering global software development with business intelligence

Context: Global Software Development (GSD) allows companies to take advantage of talent spread across the world. Most research has been focused on the development aspect. However, little if any attention has been paid to the management of GSD projects. Studies report a lack of adequate support for management’s decisions made during software development, further accentuated in GSD since information is scattered throughout multiple factories, stored in different formats and standards. Objective: This paper aims to improve GSD management by proposing a systematic method for adapting Business Intelligence techniques to software development environments. This would enhance the visibility of the development process and enable software managers to make informed decisions regarding how to proceed with GSD projects. Method: A combination of formal goal-modeling frameworks and data modeling techniques is used to elicitate the most relevant aspects to be measured by managers in GSD. The process is described in detail and applied to a real case study throughout the paper. A discussion regarding the generalisability of the method is presented afterwards. Results: The application of the approach generates an adapted BI framework tailored to software development according to the requirements posed by GSD managers. The resulting framework is capable of presenting previously inaccessible data through common and specific views and enabling data navigation according to the organization of software factories and projects in GSD. Conclusions: We can conclude that the proposed systematic approach allows us to successfully adapt Business Intelligence techniques to enhance GSD management beyond the information provided by traditional tools. The resulting framework is able to integrate and present the information in a single place, thereby enabling easy comparisons across multiple projects and factories and providing support for informed decisions in GSD management.

Value Assessment of Orphan Drugs and Treatments for Rare Diseases

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Supporting decision-making for self-adaptive systems:from goal models to dynamic decision networks

Context/Motivation - Different modeling techniques have been used to model requirements and decision-making of self-adaptive systems (SASs). Specifically, goal models have been prolific in supporting decision-making depending on partial and total fulfilment of functional (goals) and non-functional requirements (softgoals). Different goalrealization strategies can have different effects on softgoals which are specified with weighted contribution-links. The final decision about what strategy to use is based, among other reasons, on a utility function that takes into account the weighted sum of the different effects on softgoals. Questions/Problems - One of the main challenges about decisionmaking in self-adaptive systems is to deal with uncertainty during runtime. New techniques are needed to systematically revise the current model when empirical evidence becomes available from the deployment. Principal ideas/results - In this paper we enrich the decision-making supported by goal models by using Dynamic Decision Networks (DDNs). Goal realization strategies and their impact on softgoals have a correspondence with decision alternatives and conditional probabilities and expected utilities in the DDNs respectively. Our novel approach allows the specification of preferences over the softgoals and supports reasoning about partial satisfaction of softgoals using probabilities. We report results of the application of the approach on two different cases. Our early results suggest the decision-making process of SASs can be improved by using DDNs. © 2013 Springer-Verlag.

Analysis of constructivist, network-based discourses:concepts, prospects, and illustrations

The authors propose a new approach to discourse analysis which is based on meta data from social networking behavior of learners who are submerged in a socially constructivist e-learning environment. It is shown that traditional data modeling techniques can be combined with social network analysis - an approach that promises to yield new insights into the largely uncharted domain of network-based discourse analysis. The chapter is treated as a non-technical introduction and is illustrated with real examples, visual representations, and empirical findings. Within the setting of a constructivist statistics course, the chapter provides an illustration of what network-based discourse analysis is about (mainly from a methodological point of view), how it is implemented in practice, and why it is relevant for researchers and educators.

Summary of the 7th international workshop on Models@run.time

The Models@run.time (MRT) workshop series offers a discussion forum for the rising need to leverage modeling techniques for the software of the future. The main goals are to explore the benefits of models@run.time and to foster collaboration and cross-fertilization between different research communities like for example like model-driven engineering (e.g. MODELS), self-adaptive/autonomous systems communities (e.g., SEAMS and ICAC), the control theory community and the artificial intelligence community. © 2012 Authors.

Individual spirit at work and its outcomes:an empirical examination in corporate Thailand

The purpose of the present study was to conduct empirical research in corporate Thailand in order to (1) investigate the relationships between individual spirit at work and three employee work attitudinal variables (organisational identification, job satisfaction and psychological well-being) and three organisational outcomes (in-role performance, organisational citizenship behaviours (OCB), and turnover intentions) (2) further examine causal relations among these organisational behaviour variables with a longitudinal design (3) examine three employee work attitudes as mediator variables between individual spirit at work and three organisational outcomes and (4) explore the potential antecedents of organisational conditions that foster employee experienced individual spirit at work. The 715 completed questionnaires were received from the first wave of data collection during July 2008 and the second wave was conducted again within the same organisations and 501 completed questionnaires were received during April 2009. Data were obtained through 52 organisations which were from three types of organisations within Thailand: public organisations (N=237,185), for-profit organisations (N=244,155), and not-for-profit organisations (N=234,161). Confirmatory factor analysis of all measures used in the study and hypothesized model were tested with structural equation modeling techniques. Results were strongly supportive. In addition, although the model was invariant across rater of performance and OCB, there were differences across self report and supervisor rating. Additionally, the antecedents of organisational conditions that fostered employees experienced individual spirit at work and the implications of these findings for practice and research are discussed.