Current conditions and outlook: Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2002

Foreword This publication provides an assessment of the region's economic performance and economic trends during the first half of 2002 and of its prospects for the remainder of the year within the context of the previous year's performance. An analysis is presented of the main aspects of the regional economy -its external sector, levels of economic activity, inflation, employment, saving and investment, and macroeconomic policy-, accompanied by a statistical appendix containing 13 tables with data series through 2001. The document, which is being published simultaneously in Spanish and English, corresponds to the first chapter of the Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean, 2001-2002, issued in Spanish in September and in English later in the year. Wide distribution of this document is intended to serve the purpose previously performed by the Economic Panorama of Latin America, a publication that was issued in September of each year between 1985 and 1996. See also an advance version of the survey of economic developments in English-speaking countries of the Caribbean in 2001 and their prospects in 2002 which will be contained in final, revised form in the Economic Survey 2001-2002.

Current conditions and outlook: Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2002-2003

Includes bibliography

The economic development of Latin America in the twentieth century

Includes bibliography

Political violence and economic development in Latin America: issues and evidence

Includes bibliography

Long run economic development in Latin America in a comparative perspective: proximate and ultimate causes

Includes bibliography

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the tourism sector in Montserrat

This report provides an analysis and evaluation of the likely effects of climate change on the tourism sector in Montserrat. Clayton (2009) identifies three reasons why the Caribbean should be concerned about the potential effects of climate change on tourism: (a) the relatively high dependence on tourism as a source of foreign exchange and employment; (b) the intrinsic vulnerability of small islands and their infrastructure (e.g. hotels and resorts) to sea level rise and extreme climatic events (e.g. hurricanes and floods); and, (c) the high dependence of the regional tourist industry on carbon-based fuels (both to bring tourist to the region as well as to provide support services in the region). The effects of climate change are already being felt on the island. Between 1970 and 2009, there was a rise in the number of relatively hot days experienced on the island. Added to this, there was also a decline in mean precipitation over the period. Besides temperature, there is also the threat of wind speeds. Since the early 20th century, the number of hurricanes passing through the Caribbean has risen from about 5-6 per year to more than 25 in some years of the twenty-first century. In Montserrat, the estimated damage from four windstorms (including hurricanes) affecting the island was US$260 million or almost five times 2009 gross domestic product (GDP). Climate change is also likely to significantly affect coral reefs. Hoegh-Guldberg (2007) estimates that should current concentrations of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere rise from 380ppm to 560ppm, decreases in coral calcification and growth by 40% are likely. The report attempted to quantify the likely effects of the changes in the climatic factors mentioned above. As it relates to temperature and other climatic variables, a tourism climatic index that captures the elements of climate that impact on a destination’s experience was constructed. The index was calculated using historical observations as well as those under two likely climate scenarios: A2 and B2. The results suggest that under both scenarios, the island’s key tourism climatic features will likely decline and therefore negatively impact on the destination experience of visitors. Including this tourism climatic index in a tourism demand model suggests that this would translate into losses of around 145% of GDP. As it relates to coral reefs, the value of the damage due to the loss of coral reefs was estimated at 7.6 times GDP, while the damage due to land loss for the tourism industry was 45% of GDP. The total cost of climate change for the tourism industry was therefore projected to be 9.6 times 2009 GDP over a 40-year horizon. Given the potential for significant damage to the industry, a large number of potential adaptation measures were considered. Out of these, a short-list of 9 potential options was selected using 10 evaluation criteria. These included: (a) Increasing recommended design wind speeds for new tourism-related structures; (b) Construction of water storage tanks; (c) Irrigation network that allows for the recycling of waste water; (d) Enhanced reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events; (e) Deployment of artificial reefs and fish-aggregating devices; (f) Developing national evacuation and rescue plans; (g) Introduction of alternative attractions; (h) Providing re-training for displaced tourism workers, and; (i) Revised policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climatic realities Using cost-benefit analysis, three options were put forward as being financially viable and ready for immediate implementation: (a) Increase recommended design speeds for new tourism-related structures; (b) Enhance reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events, and; (c) Deploy artificial reefs or fish-aggregating devices. While these options had positive benefit cost ratios, other options were also recommended based on their non-tangible benefits: an irrigation network that allows for the recycling of waste water, development of national evacuation and rescue plans, providing retraining for displaced tourism workers and the revision of policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climatic realities.

Siderurgia e carvoejamento na Amazônia: drenagem energético-material e pauperização regional

O trabalho analisa a implantação, no último quartel do século XX, na Amazônia oriental brasileira, de indústria voltada à produção de ferro-gusa destinado ao mercado internacional de insumos siderúrgicos. Demonstra que, nos anos 1980, o discurso estatal anunciou as plantas industriais deste segmento como elemento estratégico de modernização econômica da região. Tal postura justificou a concessão de benefícios fiscais, creditícios e de infraestrutura a 22 empresas de siderurgia e metalurgia. No âmbito da dimensão ambiental, o estudo demonstra que a produção de ferro-gusa recorre a processos marcados por baixa eficiência energética e que deles resultou o acesso, sem prudência ecológica, a estoque de biomassa da floresta amazônica, com ampliação da pressão antrópica sobre ela. O estudo evidencia que o plantio de grandes áreas de floresta para produzir carvão vegetal não se concretizou, manteve-se tão-somente como retórica desprovida de base realista. Quanto à dimensão econômica, o estudo indica que as limitações de a indústria de ferro-gusa impulsionar processos de modernização vinculam-se, dentre outros aspectos, ao fato de ela ter na demanda de carvão vegetal o principal elo de articulação com a sociedade e com a economia da região. Tal demanda é suprida por centenas de fornecedores e, por meio dela, a indústria controla a margem de lucro e comprime os custos de produção transferindo custos privados para a sociedade. O estudo demonstra, ainda, que o padrão de atuação deste segmento empresarial vincula-se a condicionamentos econômicos e institucionais: a implantação de florestas energéticas exige investimentos de longo prazo, somados às grandes oscilações no preço do ferro-gusa e a dinâmicas institucionais que abrem possibilidade de se acessar, ilegalmente, biomassa de florestas primárias. Isso levou o segmento a recorrer, historicamente, ao suprimento de carvão vegetal produzido, sobretudo, a partir da biomassa de florestas primárias e não da silvicultura. Com base em tais evidências, o trabalho conclui que a predição estatal de impulso regional modernizante não se materializou. A causa principal foi a inexistência de competências sociais para regular a transformação de matéria e energia em mercadorias, e esta produção teve seus fundamentos marcados pela degradação social e ambiental. Assim, atuou em sentido contrário ao discurso estatal: acelerou a transferência energética, material e de valores para outras regiões. Drenagem energético-material que não foi compensada, nem pela capacidade de a região equilibrar as perdas com importações de produtos, nem pela implementação de dinâmicas eficazes para a industrialização da região.

Aplicação da análise fatorial em cidades do Vale do Paraíba considerando os objetivos do milênio

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Mecânica - FEG

Futuros urbanos: la reversibilidad del proceso de deterioro

Las dinámicas de reorganización de la producción y las transformaciones económicas determinaron la crisis de gran parte de las regiones industriales de Europa y Estados Unidos en las últimas décadas del siglo XX. Ante la persistencia e intensidad del declive de muchas de ellas, cabe preguntarse, ¿existen futuros para la ciudad industrial? O, en otras palabras, ¿es el declive un proceso irreversible? La incidencia dispar del declive así como la gradual regeneración de algunas regiones industriales en los últimos años parece apuntar hacia cierta capacidad de respuesta local ante unas dinámicas de escala global. Las múltiples trayectorias de las regiones de base industrial tan sólo parecen poder explicarse desde su singularidad. La presente tesis doctoral tiene por objeto analizar las posibilidades de orientar los procesos de deterioro urbano de las regiones industriales y examinar la capacidad de la planificación de intervenir sobre ellos a través de dos estudios de caso, El modo de abordar el análisis, estudiar la ciudad en evolución, debería proporcionar una mejor comprensión de las repercusiones del modelo de crecimiento de cada ciudad sobre su posterior declive y resaltar la influencia de las decisiones políticas y espaciales de cada etapa en el desarrollo futuro del territorio. Analizar la evolución de dos regiones industriales extremadamente diferentes dará la oportunidad de investigar, en primer lugar, uno de los casos paradigmáticos de deterioro urbano, Detroit y, tras haberse interrogado sobre las causas específicas de la persistencia y duración de su declive, estudiar la evolución urbana de la región de Nantes – Saint-Nazaire para comprender la singularidad de su regeneración tras años de estancamiento. El análisis de estos territorios debería permitir progresar en el conocimiento de los procesos de declive, comparar las diferentes estrategias y modelos urbanos, comprender las diferencias entre ellos e interrogarnos sobre la posibilidad de orientar los procesos de deterioro urbano. Las respuestas de este análisis quizás nos ayuden a afirmar la existencia de futuros múltiples para la ciudad industrial. Global dynamics such as economic transformations and reorganizations of production led to the crisis of most industrial cities in Europe and the U.S in the last decades of the 20th century. Most of them have suffered or are still suffering the consequences of urban decay and shrinkage. Given the severity and persistence of some of these processes, a significant question may be raised: are there alternative futures for former industrial cities? Or is urban decay an irreversible process? Nevertheless, the diverse evolution of these cities, as well as the gradual restructuring of some of them in recent years, seem to point toward the relevance of local response to these global dynamics. The different paths of development of industrial cities since 1970s may only be explained by their singularity and specific local conditions. This research aims to examine possibilities to guide urban decline and shrinkage in former industrial regions and to analyze the ability of urban planning to intervene in these processes through two case studies. The method of research, exploring cities in evolution, should provide a greater understanding of the effects of different modes of development during the city’s heyday on its subsequent shrinkage. Likewise, it should highlight the influence of each period’s local decisions on the future trajectory of the city. The evolutive analysis of two extremely different industrial regions will give us, first, the opportunity to study a paradigm of urban decay, Detroit, by exploring over time the specific causes of its decline’s prevalence. In the second place, we will be able to study Nantes - Saint-Nazaire region, examining the distinctiveness of its recent restructuring after years of shrinkage and stagnation. Through these examples, we would be able to analyze the consequences of decision-making on the evolution of each city. It should also let us compare diverse strategies and enable us to question the ability of planning to tackle decay. The conclusions of the analysis may help us to assert the existence of alternative futures for industrial cities.

Institutional Persistence in Eastern Europe: Economic and Political Legacies of Empires and Communism

This dissertation seeks to advance our understanding of the roles that institutions play in economic development. How do institutions evolve? What mechanisms are responsible for their persistence? What effects do they have on economic development?

I address these questions using historical and contemporary data from Eastern Europe and Russia. This area is relatively understudied by development economists. It also has a very interesting history. For one thing, for several centuries it was divided between different empires. For another, it experienced wars and socialism in the 20th century. I use some of these exogenous shocks as quasi-natural social experiments to study the institutional transformations and its effects on economic development both in the short and long run.

This first chapter explores whether economic, social, and political institutions vary in their resistance to policies designed to remove them. The empirical context for the analysis is Romania from 1690 to the 2000s. Romania represents an excellent laboratory for studying the persistence of different types of historical institutional legacies. In the 18th and 19th centuries, Romania was split between the Habsburg and Ottoman Empires, where political and economic institutions differed. The Habsburgs imposed less extractive institutions relative to the Ottomans: stronger rule of law, a more stable and predictable state, a more developed civil society, and less corruption. In the 20th century, the Romanian Communist regime tried deliberately to homogenize the country along all relevant dimensions. It was only partially successful. Using a regression discontinuity design, I document the persistence of economic outcomes, social capital, and political attitudes. First, I document remarkable convergence in urbanization, education, unemployment, and income between the two former empires. Second, regarding social capital, no significant differences in organizational membership, trust in bureaucracy, and corruption persist today. Finally, even though the Communists tried to change all political attitudes, significant discontinuities exist in current voting behavior at the former Habsburg-Ottoman border. Using data from the parliamentary elections of 1996-2008, I find that former Habsburg rule decreases by around 6 percentage points the vote share of the major post-Communist left party and increases by around 2 and 5 percentage points the vote shares of the main anti-Communist and liberal parties, respectively.

The second chapter investigates the effects of Stalin’s mass deportations on distrust in central authority. Four deported ethnic groups were not rehabilitated after Stalin’s death; they remained in permanent exile until the disintegration of the Soviet Union. This allows one to distinguish between the effects of the groups that returned to their homelands and those of the groups that were not allowed to return. Using regional data from the 1991 referendum on the future of the Soviet Union, I find that deportations have a negative interim effect on trust in central authority in both the regions of destination and those of origin. The effect is stronger for ethnic groups that remained in permanent exile in the destination regions. Using data from the Life in Transition Survey, the chapter also documents a long-term effect of deportations in the destination regions.

The third chapter studies the short-term effect of Russian colonization of Central Asia on economic development. I use data on the regions of origin of Russian settlers and push factors to construct an instrument for Russian migration to Central Asia. This instrument allows me to interpret the outcomes causally. The main finding is that the massive influx of Russians into the region during the 1897-1926 period had a significant positive effect on indigenous literacy. The effect is stronger for men and in rural areas. Evidently, interactions between natives and Russians through the paid labor market was an important mechanism of human capital transmission in the context of colonization.

The findings of these chapters provide additional evidence that history and institutions do matter for economic development. Moreover, the dissertation also illuminates the relative persistence of institutions. In particular, political and social capital legacies of institutions might outlast economic legacies. I find that most economic differences between the former empires in Romania have disappeared. By the same token, there are significant discontinuities in political outcomes. People in former Habsburg Romania provide greater support for liberalization, privatization, and market economy, whereas voters in Ottoman Romania vote more for redistribution and government control over the economy.

In the former Soviet Union, Stalin’s deportations during World War II have a long-term negative effect on social capital. Today’s residents of the destination regions of deportations show significantly lower levels of trust in central authority. This is despite the fact that the Communist regime tried to eliminate any source of opposition and used propaganda to homogenize people’s political and social attitudes towards the authorities. In Central Asia, the influx of Russian settlers had a positive short-term effect on human capital of indigenous population by the 1920s, which also might have persisted over time.

From a development perspective, these findings stress the importance of institutions for future paths of development. Even if past institutional differences are not apparent for a certain period of time, as was the case with the former Communist countries, they can polarize society later on, hampering economic development in the long run. Different institutions in the past, which do not exist anymore, can thus contribute to current political instability and animosity.

Adolescence : a useful concept for this millennium

This paper proposes adolescence as a useful concept rather than definitive. It explores the notion of adolescence and its relevance to contemporary society and schooling. We reflect on the purposes for the emergence of research into adolescence during the early 20th century, particularly the particular scientific and societal pressures that served to bring this field to prominence. Recent debate has started to problematise many of the early parameters used to define and provide bounds for understanding adolescents and adolescent experience and for the rationale for some notionally tailored educational contexts. This paper provides an overview of this debate and argues for a reconsideration of some of the basic tenets for definition. In particular we discuss the cultural construction of adolescence in the light of our new globalised society. A possibility for thinking about contemporary adolescents is by considering them in terms of generational characteristics. What makes a new generation? Typically, members of a generation share age, a set of experiences during formative years, and a set of social and economic conditions. The adolescents of today fall into the group known collectively as the ‘Y Generation’, the ‘D (digital) Generation’, Generation C (consumer) and the ‘Millennial’s’. Born after mid-1980, they are characterised as computer and internet competent, multi-taskers, with a global perspective. They respond best to visual language, and are heavily influenced by the media. We consider the generational traits and how this impacts on the teaching and learning.

The increased popularity of mopeds and motor scooters : exploring usage patterns and safety outcomes

Increased use of powered two-wheelers (PTWs) often underlies increases in the number of reported crashes, promoting research into PTW safety. PTW riders are overrepresented in crash and injury statistics relative to exposure and, as such, are considered vulnerable road users. PTW use has increased substantially over the last decade in many developed countries. One such country is Australia, where moped and scooter use has increased at a faster rate than motorcycle use in recent years. Increased moped use is particularly evident in the State of Queensland which is one of four Australian jurisdictions where moped riding is permitted for car licence holders and a motorcycle licence is not required. A moped is commonly a small motor scooter and is limited to a maximum design speed of 50 km/h and a maximum engine cylinder capacity of 50 cubic centimetres. Scooters exceeding either of these specifications are classed as motorcycles in all Australian jurisdictions. While an extensive body of knowledge exists on motorcycle safety, some of which is relevant to moped and scooter safety, the latter PTW types have received comparatively little focused research attention. Much of the research on moped safety to date has been conducted in Europe where they have been popular since the mid 20th century, while some studies have also been conducted in the United States. This research is of limited relevance to Australia due to socio-cultural, economic, regulatory and environmental differences. Moreover, while some studies have compared motorcycles to mopeds in terms of safety, no research to date has specifically examined the differences and similarities between mopeds and larger scooters, or between larger scooters and motorcycles. To address the need for a better understanding of moped and scooter use and safety, the current program of research involved three complementary studies designed to achieve the following aims: (1) develop better knowledge and understanding of moped and scooter usage trends and patterns; and (2) determine the factors leading to differences in moped, scooter and motorcycle safety. Study 1 involved six-monthly observations of PTW types in inner city parking areas of Queensland’s capital city, Brisbane, to monitor and quantify the types of PTW in use over a two year period. Study 2 involved an analysis of Queensland PTW crash and registration data, primarily comparing the police-reported crash involvement of mopeds, scooters and motorcycles over a five year period (N = 7,347). Study 3 employed both qualitative and quantitative methods to examine moped and scooter usage in two components: (a) four focus group discussions with Brisbane-based Queensland moped and scooter riders (N = 23); and (b) a state-wide survey of Queensland moped and scooter riders (N = 192). Study 1 found that of the PTW types parked in inner city Brisbane over the study period (N = 2,642), more than one third (36.1%) were mopeds or larger scooters. The number of PTWs observed increased at each six-monthly phase, but there were no significant changes in the proportions of PTW types observed across study phases. There were no significant differences in the proportions or numbers of PTW type observed by season. Study 2 revealed some important differences between mopeds, scooters and motorcycles in terms of safety and usage through analysis of crash and registration data. All Queensland PTW registrations doubled between 2001 and 2009, but there was an almost fifteen-fold increase in moped registrations. Mopeds subsequently increased as a proportion of Queensland registered PTWs from 1.2 percent to 8.8 percent over this nine year period. Moped and scooter crashes increased at a faster rate than motorcycle crashes over the five year study period from July 2003 to June 2008, reflecting their relatively greater increased usage. Crash rates per 10,000 registrations for the study period were only slightly higher for mopeds (133.4) than for motorcycles and scooters combined (124.8), but estimated crash rates per million vehicle kilometres travelled were higher for mopeds (6.3) than motorcycles and scooters (1.7). While the number of crashes increased for each PTW type over the study period, the rate of crashes per 10,000 registrations declined by 40 percent for mopeds compared with 22 percent for motorcycles and scooters combined. Moped and scooter crashes were generally less severe than motorcycle crashes and this was related to the particular crash characteristics of the PTW types rather than to the PTW types themselves. Compared to motorcycle and moped crashes, scooter crashes were less likely to be single vehicle crashes, to involve a speeding or impaired rider, to involve poor road conditions, or to be attributed to rider error. Scooter and moped crashes were more likely than motorcycle crashes to occur on weekdays, in lower speed zones and at intersections. Scooter riders were older on average (39) than moped (32) and motorcycle (35) riders, while moped riders were more likely to be female (36%) than scooter (22%) or motorcycle riders (7%). The licence characteristics of scooter and motorcycle riders were similar, with moped riders more likely to be licensed outside of Queensland and less likely to hold a full or open licence. The PTW type could not be identified in 15 percent of all cases, indicating a need for more complete recording of vehicle details in the registration data. The focus groups in Study 3a and the survey in Study 3b suggested that moped and scooter riders are a heterogeneous population in terms of demographic characteristics, riding experience, and knowledge and attitudes regarding safety and risk. The self-reported crash involvement of Study 3b respondents suggests that most moped and scooter crashes result in no injury or minor injury and are not reported to police. Study 3 provided some explanation for differences observed in Study 2 between mopeds and scooters in terms of crash involvement. On the whole, scooter riders were older, more experienced, more likely to have undertaken rider training and to value rider training programs. Scooter riders were also more likely to use protective clothing and to seek out safety-related information. This research has some important practical implications regarding moped and scooter use and safety. While mopeds and scooters are generally similar in terms of usage, and their usage has increased, scooter riders appear to be safer than moped riders due to some combination of superior skills and safer riding behaviour. It is reasonable to expect that mopeds and scooters will remain popular in Queensland in future and that their usage may further increase, along with that of motorcycles. Future policy and planning should consider potential options for encouraging moped riders to acquire better riding skills and greater safety awareness. While rider training and licensing appears an obvious potential countermeasure, the effectiveness of rider training has not been established and other options should also be strongly considered. Such options might include rider education and safety promotion, while interventions could also target other road users and urban infrastructure. Future research is warranted in regard to moped and scooter safety, particularly where the use of those PTWs has increased substantially from low levels. Research could address areas such as rider training and licensing (including program evaluations), the need for more detailed and reliable data (particularly crash and exposure data), protective clothing use, risks associated with lane splitting and filtering, and tourist use of mopeds. Some of this research would likely be relevant to motorcycle use and safety, as well as that of mopeds and scooters.

Children and the environment

Children and the environment cover a broad, interdisciplinary field of research and practice. The social sciences often use the word “environment” to mean the social, political, or economic context of children’s lives, but this bibliography covers physical settings. It focuses on a place-based scale that children can see, hear, taste, smell, touch, and navigate: not large, abstract scales such as national identities or population dynamics, or small scales such as environmental impacts on genes or cell functions. Attention to the everyday settings of children’s lives grew in the 18th century, when Romantic literature introduced the theme of children and nature. In the 19th century, concern for children’s welfare included an interest in conditions for children in burgeoning industrial cities, and justifications for early streetcar and railroad suburbs included claims that they would save children from the dangers of cities and provide the healthful benefits of natural surroundings. In the 20th century, academic disciplines developed different lines of inquiry about the impact of the physical environment on children and how children relate to places: ethnographic studies of children in different parts of the world in the fields of anthropology and geography; sociological studies of different populations of children in different settings; educational research on the learning opportunities that different school and out-of-school settings afford; medical research to understand disease vectors and the impact of pollutants on children; and efforts in the field of environment and behavior research more broadly, to understand how built and designed environments affect children physically, cognitively, socially, and emotionally. At the beginning of the 21st century, children and the environment is an active area of inquiry seeking to understand rapidly changing conditions for children as the world urbanizes, opportunities for free play outdoors and independent mobility erode in many parts of the world, media environments consume more of children’s time, and awareness grows that children need opportunities to contribute to creating sustainable societies.

Lt. Colonel Rachel (Rae) Diane Landy papers undated, 1913-2000

Rachel Diane Landy Papers consist of correspondence, reminiscences, legal documents, journal, newspaper and magazine articles and color Xerox copies of photographs as well as original photographs. This collection is of value to researchers studying the history of Hadassah and the living conditions and state of medical care in Palestine during the second decade of the 20th century. It is also of interest to researchers studying women in America during the first half of the 20th century who were able to pursue a challenging and productive career and become a leader and innovator in their chosen field. In addition it will be of interest to those researching the graduates of the Cleveland public and professional schools at the end of the 19th and beginning of the 20th centuries, and the Cleveland Jewish community and the George Crile U.S. Army Hospital in Cleveland during the 1940's.

The Context and Diffusion of Knowledge in the Finnish Jewellery Industry - The role of the House of Fabergé

Researchers within the fields of economic geography and organizational management have extensively studied learning and the prerequisites and impediments for knowledge transfer. This paper combines two discourses within the two subjects: the-communities-of-practice and the learning region approaches, merging them through the so-called ecology of knowledge-approach, which is used to examine the knowledge transfer from the House of Fabergé to the Finnish jewellery industry. We examine the pre-revolution St Petersburg jewellery cluster and the post-revolution Helsinki, and the transfer of knowledge between these two locations through the components of communities of people, institutions and industry. The paper shows that the industrial dynamics of the Finnish modern-day goldsmith industry was inherently shaped both through the transfer and the non-transfer of knowledge. It also contends that the “knowledge-economy” is not anchored in and exclusive for the high technology sector of the late 20th century.