Bivariate frequency analysis of floods using a diffusion based kernel density estimator

Recent focus of flood frequency analysis (FFA) studies has been on development of methods to model joint distributions of variables such as peak flow, volume, and duration that characterize a flood event, as comprehensive knowledge of flood event is often necessary in hydrological applications. Diffusion process based adaptive kernel (D-kernel) is suggested in this paper for this purpose. It is data driven, flexible and unlike most kernel density estimators, always yields a bona fide probability density function. It overcomes shortcomings associated with the use of conventional kernel density estimators in FFA, such as boundary leakage problem and normal reference rule. The potential of the D-kernel is demonstrated by application to synthetic samples of various sizes drawn from known unimodal and bimodal populations, and five typical peak flow records from different parts of the world. It is shown to be effective when compared to conventional Gaussian kernel and the best of seven commonly used copulas (Gumbel-Hougaard, Frank, Clayton, Joe, Normal, Plackett, and Student's T) in estimating joint distribution of peak flow characteristics and extrapolating beyond historical maxima. Selection of optimum number of bins is found to be critical in modeling with D-kernel.

Modeling Time-Varying Aggregate Interference in Cognitive Radio Systems, and Application to Primary Exclusive Zone Design

Accurately characterizing the time-varying interference caused to the primary users is essential in ensuring a successful deployment of cognitive radios (CR). We show that the aggregate interference at the primary receiver (PU-Rx) from multiple, randomly located cognitive users (CUs) is well modeled as a shifted lognormal random process, which is more accurate than the lognormal and the Gaussian process models considered in the literature, even for a relatively dense deployment of CUs. It also compares favorably with the asymptotically exact stable and symmetric truncated stable distribution models, except at high CU densities. Our model accounts for the effect of imperfect spectrum sensing, which depends on path-loss, shadowing, and small-scale fading of the link from the primary transmitter to the CU; the interweave and underlay modes or CR operation, which determine the transmit powers of the CUs; and time-correlated shadowing and fading of the links from the CUs to the PU-Rx. It leads to expressions for the probability distribution function, level crossing rate, and average exceedance duration. The impact of cooperative spectrum sensing is also characterized. We validate the model by applying it to redesign the primary exclusive zone to account for the time-varying nature of interference.

The Ginibre Ensemble and Gaussian Analytic Functions

We show that as n changes, the characteristic polynomial of the n x n random matrix with i.i.d. complex Gaussian entries can be described recursively through a process analogous to Polya's urn scheme. As a result, we get a random analytic function in the limit, which is given by a mixture of Gaussian analytic functions. This suggests another reason why the zeros of Gaussian analytic functions and the Ginibre ensemble exhibit similar local repulsion, but different global behavior. Our approach gives new explicit formulas for the limiting analytic function.

Statistics of the inverse-cascade regime in two-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic turbulence

We present a detailed direct numerical simulation of statistically steady, homogeneous, isotropic, two-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic turbulence. Our study concentrates on the inverse cascade of the magnetic vector potential. We examine the dependence of the statistical properties of such turbulence on dissipation and friction coefficients. We extend earlier work significantly by calculating fluid and magnetic spectra, probability distribution functions (PDFs) of the velocity, magnetic, vorticity, current, stream-function, and magnetic-vector-potential fields, and their increments. We quantify the deviations of these PDFs from Gaussian ones by computing their flatnesses and hyperflatnesses. We also present PDFs of the Okubo-Weiss parameter, which distinguishes between vortical and extensional flow regions, and its magnetic analog. We show that the hyperflatnesses of PDFs of the increments of the stream function and the magnetic vector potential exhibit significant scale dependence and we examine the implication of this for the multiscaling of structure functions. We compare our results with those of earlier studies.

Smoothed Functional Algorithms for Stochastic Optimization Using q-Gaussian Distributions

Smoothed functional (SF) schemes for gradient estimation are known to be efficient in stochastic optimization algorithms, especially when the objective is to improve the performance of a stochastic system However, the performance of these methods depends on several parameters, such as the choice of a suitable smoothing kernel. Different kernels have been studied in the literature, which include Gaussian, Cauchy, and uniform distributions, among others. This article studies a new class of kernels based on the q-Gaussian distribution, which has gained popularity in statistical physics over the last decade. Though the importance of this family of distributions is attributed to its ability to generalize the Gaussian distribution, we observe that this class encompasses almost all existing smoothing kernels. This motivates us to study SF schemes for gradient estimation using the q-Gaussian distribution. Using the derived gradient estimates, we propose two-timescale algorithms for optimization of a stochastic objective function in a constrained setting with a projected gradient search approach. We prove the convergence of our algorithms to the set of stationary points of an associated ODE. We also demonstrate their performance numerically through simulations on a queuing model.

Newton-based stochastic optimization using q-Gaussian smoothed functional algorithms

We present the first q-Gaussian smoothed functional (SF) estimator of the Hessian and the first Newton-based stochastic optimization algorithm that estimates both the Hessian and the gradient of the objective function using q-Gaussian perturbations. Our algorithm requires only two system simulations (regardless of the parameter dimension) and estimates both the gradient and the Hessian at each update epoch using these. We also present a proof of convergence of the proposed algorithm. In a related recent work (Ghoshdastidar, Dukkipati, & Bhatnagar, 2014), we presented gradient SF algorithms based on the q-Gaussian perturbations. Our work extends prior work on SF algorithms by generalizing the class of perturbation distributions as most distributions reported in the literature for which SF algorithms are known to work turn out to be special cases of the q-Gaussian distribution. Besides studying the convergence properties of our algorithm analytically, we also show the results of numerical simulations on a model of a queuing network, that illustrate the significance of the proposed method. In particular, we observe that our algorithm performs better in most cases, over a wide range of q-values, in comparison to Newton SF algorithms with the Gaussian and Cauchy perturbations, as well as the gradient q-Gaussian SF algorithms. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

AN OPTIMUM SHRINKAGE ESTIMATOR BASED ON MINIMUM-PROBABILITY-OF-ERROR CRITERION AND APPLICATION TO SIGNAL DENOISING

We address the problem of designing an optimal pointwise shrinkage estimator in the transform domain, based on the minimum probability of error (MPE) criterion. We assume an additive model for the noise corrupting the clean signal. The proposed formulation is general in the sense that it can handle various noise distributions. We consider various noise distributions (Gaussian, Student's-t, and Laplacian) and compare the denoising performance of the estimator obtained with the mean-squared error (MSE)-based estimators. The MSE optimization is carried out using an unbiased estimator of the MSE, namely Stein's Unbiased Risk Estimate (SURE). Experimental results show that the MPE estimator outperforms the SURE estimator in terms of SNR of the denoised output, for low (0 -10 dB) and medium values (10 - 20 dB) of the input SNR.

Quick, Decentralized, Energy-Efficient One-Shot Max Function Computation Using Timer-Based Selection

In several wireless sensor networks, it is of interest to determine the maximum of the sensor readings and identify the sensor responsible for it. We propose a novel, decentralized, scalable, energy-efficient, timer-based, one-shot max function computation (TMC) algorithm. In it, the sensor nodes do not transmit their readings in a centrally pre-defined sequence. Instead, the nodes are grouped into clusters, and computation occurs over two contention stages. First, the nodes in each cluster contend with each other using the timer scheme to transmit their reading to their cluster-heads. Thereafter, the cluster-heads use the timer scheme to transmit the highest sensor reading in their cluster to the fusion node. One new challenge is that the use of the timer scheme leads to collisions, which can make the algorithm fail. We optimize the algorithm to minimize the average time required to determine the maximum subject to a constraint on the probability that it fails to find the maximum. TMC significantly lowers average function computation time, average number of transmissions, and average energy consumption compared to approaches proposed in the literature.

Secure Compute-and-Forward in a Bidirectional Relay

We consider the basic bidirectional relaying problem, in which two users in a wireless network wish to exchange messages through an intermediate relay node. In the compute-and-forward strategy, the relay computes a function of the two messages using the naturally occurring sum of symbols simultaneously transmitted by user nodes in a Gaussian multiple-access channel (MAC), and the computed function value is forwarded to the user nodes in an ensuing broadcast phase. In this paper, we study the problem under an additional security constraint, which requires that each user's message be kept secure from the relay. We consider two types of security constraints: 1) perfect secrecy, in which the MAC channel output seen by the relay is independent of each user's message and 2) strong secrecy, which is a form of asymptotic independence. We propose a coding scheme based on nested lattices, the main feature of which is that given a pair of nested lattices that satisfy certain goodness properties, we can explicitly specify probability distributions for randomization at the encoders to achieve the desired security criteria. In particular, our coding scheme guarantees perfect or strong secrecy even in the absence of channel noise. The noise in the channel only affects reliability of computation at the relay, and for Gaussian noise, we derive achievable rates for reliable and secure computation. We also present an application of our methods to the multihop line network in which a source needs to transmit messages to a destination through a series of intermediate relays.

Inner Bound on the GDOF of the K-User MIMO Gaussian Symmetric Interference Channel

The K-user multiple input multiple output (MIMO) Gaussian symmetric interference channel where each transmitter has M antennas and each receiver has N antennas is studied from a generalized degrees of freedom (GDOF) perspective. An inner bound on the GDOF is derived using a combination of techniques such as treating interference as noise, zero forcing (ZF) at the receivers, interference alignment (IA), and extending the Han-Kobayashi (HK) scheme to K users, as a function of the number of antennas and the log INR/log SNR level. Several interesting conclusions are drawn from the derived bounds. It is shown that when K > N/M + 1, a combination of the HK and IA schemes performs the best among the schemes considered. When N/M < K <= N/M + 1, the HK-scheme outperforms other schemes and is found to be GDOF optimal in many cases. In addition, when the SNR and INR are at the same level, ZF-receiving and the HK-scheme have the same GDOF performance.

Nonparametric Bayesian Density Modeling with Gaussian Processes

We present the Gaussian process density sampler (GPDS), an exchangeable generative model for use in nonparametric Bayesian density estimation. Samples drawn from the GPDS are consistent with exact, independent samples from a distribution defined by a density that is a transformation of a function drawn from a Gaussian process prior. Our formulation allows us to infer an unknown density from data using Markov chain Monte Carlo, which gives samples from the posterior distribution over density functions and from the predictive distribution on data space. We describe two such MCMC methods. Both methods also allow inference of the hyperparameters of the Gaussian process.

Tractable nonparametric bayesian inference in poisson processes with Gaussian process intensities

The inhomogeneous Poisson process is a point process that has varying intensity across its domain (usually time or space). For nonparametric Bayesian modeling, the Gaussian process is a useful way to place a prior distribution on this intensity. The combination of a Poisson process and GP is known as a Gaussian Cox process, or doubly-stochastic Poisson process. Likelihood-based inference in these models requires an intractable integral over an infinite-dimensional random function. In this paper we present the first approach to Gaussian Cox processes in which it is possible to perform inference without introducing approximations or finitedimensional proxy distributions. We call our method the Sigmoidal Gaussian Cox Process, which uses a generative model for Poisson data to enable tractable inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo. We compare our methods to competing methods on synthetic data and apply it to several real-world data sets. Copyright 2009.

Tractable nonparametric Bayesian inference in Poisson processes with Gaussian process intensities

The inhomogeneous Poisson process is a point process that has varying intensity across its domain (usually time or space). For nonparametric Bayesian modeling, the Gaussian process is a useful way to place a prior distribution on this intensity. The combination of a Poisson process and GP is known as a Gaussian Cox process, or doubly-stochastic Poisson process. Likelihood-based inference in these models requires an intractable integral over an infinite-dimensional random function. In this paper we present the first approach to Gaussian Cox processes in which it is possible to perform inference without introducing approximations or finite-dimensional proxy distributions. We call our method the Sigmoidal Gaussian Cox Process, which uses a generative model for Poisson data to enable tractable inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo. We compare our methods to competing methods on synthetic data and apply it to several real-world data sets.

Reconstructing The Vertical Distribution Of The Aeolian Saltation Mass Flux Based On The Probability Distribution Of Lift-Off Velocity

The probability distribution of lift-off velocity of the saltating grains is a bridge to linking microscopic and macroscopic research of aeolian sand transport. The lift-off parameters of saltating grains (i.e., the horizontal and vertical lift-off velocities, resultant lift-off velocity, and lift-off angle) in a wind tunnel are measured by using a Phase Doppler Particle Analyzer (PDPA). The experimental results show that the probability distribution of horizontal lift-off velocity of saltating particles on a bed surface is a normal function, and that of vertical lift-off velocity is an exponential function. The probability distribution of resultant lift-off velocity of saltating grains can be expressed as a log-normal function, and that of lift-off angle complies with an exponential function. A numerical model for the vertical distribution of aeolian mass flux based on the probability distribution of lift-off velocity is established. The simulation gives a sand mass flux distribution which is consistent with the field data of Namikas (Namikas, S.L., 2003. Field measurement and numerical modelling of acolian mass flux distributions on a sandy beach, Sedimentology 50, 303-326). Therefore, these findings are helpful to further understand the probability characteristics of lift-off grains in aeolian sand transport. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Generalizations and extensions of the Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov equations

The problem of determining probability density functions of general transformations of random processes is considered in this thesis. A method of solution is developed in which partial differential equations satisfied by the unknown density function are derived. These partial differential equations are interpreted as generalized forms of the classical Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov equations and are shown to imply the classical equations for certain classes of Markov processes. Extensions of the generalized equations which overcome degeneracy occurring in the steady-state case are also obtained.

The equations of Darling and Siegert are derived as special cases of the generalized equations thereby providing unity to two previously existing theories. A technique for treating non-Markov processes by studying closely related Markov processes is proposed and is seen to yield the Darling and Siegert equations directly from the classical Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov equations.

As illustrations of their applicability, the generalized Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov equations are presented for certain joint probability density functions associated with the linear filter. These equations are solved for the density of the output of an arbitrary linear filter excited by Markov Gaussian noise and for the density of the output of an RC filter excited by the Poisson square wave. This latter density is also found by using the extensions of the generalized equations mentioned above. Finally, some new approaches for finding the output probability density function of an RC filter-limiter-RC filter system driven by white Gaussian noise are included. The results in this case exhibit the data required for complete solution and clearly illustrate some of the mathematical difficulties inherent to the use of the generalized equations.