Analysing orchestrations with risk profiles and angel-daemon games

In this paper game theory is used to analyse the effect of a number of service failures during the execution of a grid orchestration. A service failure may be catastrophic in that it causes an entire orchestration to fail. Alternatively, a grid manager may utilise alternative services in the case of failure, allowing an orchestration to recover, A risk profile provides a means of modelling situations in a way that is neither overly optimistic nor overly pessimistic. Risk profiles are analysed using angel and daemon games. A risk profile can be assigned a valuation through an analysis of the structure of its associated Nash equilibria. Some structural properties of valuation functions, that show their validity as a measure for risk, are given. Two main cases are considered, the assessment of Orc expressions and the arrangement of a meeting using reputations.

Imperfect assessment and limited information preclude optimal strategies in male-male fights in the orb-weaving spider Metellina mengei

Agonistic behaviour between male orb-web spiders Metellina mengei competing for access to female webs was examined in field experiments to test the major predictions of game theory. Winners of fights were significantly larger than losers, particularly with respect to the length of the first pair of legs, which are sexually dimorphic in this species and used extensively in agonistic encounters. The size of the winning male had no influence on contest intensity or duration, and neither did relative size. However, fight intensity and duration were both positively correlated with the size of the losing male. Resident males won significantly more contests than intruders. Winning intruders were significantly larger than winning residents and it was these winning intruders that tended to produce the longer fights. Female weight and hence reproductive value had a marked influence on fight intensity and duration of fights won by the intruder but not those won by the resident. This indicates that only the resident obtains information about the female. These data are discussed with reference to the discrepancy with theory and a failure of some contestants to obtain information on resource value and relative contestant size necessary to optimize fight strategy.

Assessment of fighting ability in animal contests

Selection should favour accurate information gathering regarding the likely costs and benefits of continued conflict. Here we consider how variation in the abilities of contestants to assess resource-holding potential (RHP) influences fights. This has been examined in various game theory models. However, discriminating between assessment strategies has proven difficult and has resulted in confusion. To add clarity, we group existing models into three main types that differ in the information about RHP that contestants are presumed to gather: (1) pure self-assessment, (2) cumulative assessment and (3) mutual assessment. Within this framework we outline methods advocated to discriminate successfully between the three main assessment models. We discuss support for each model, before highlighting a number of conflicting and inconclusive studies, leading us to consider alternative approaches to investigate assessment. Furthermore, we examine support for newly emerging concepts such as 'varying degrees of assessment', 'switching assessment' strategies and the possibility of contestants adopting different assessment strategies within a fight involving distinctive roles. We suggest future studies will benefit by judicious use of a battery of techniques to determine how animals settle contests. Finally, we highlight difficulties with current game theory models, and raise concerns regarding the use of certain behavioural criteria to accept or reject a model, particularly since this may conflict with evidence for a given assessment strategy. Furthermore, the failure of existing models to account for newly emerging concepts points to limitations of their use and leads us to challenge game theoreticians to develop upon them. (C) 2009 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Information gathering and decision making about resource value in animal contests

Contestants are predicted to adjust the cost of a fight in line with the perceived value of the resource and this provides a way of determining whether the resource has been assessed. An assessment of resource value is predicted to alter an animal's motivational state and we note different methods of measuring that state. We provide a categorical framework in which the degree of resource assessment may be evaluated and also note limitations of various approaches. We place studies in six categories: (1) cases of no assessment, (2) cases of internal state such as hunger influencing apparent value, (3) cases of the contestants differing in assessment ability, (4) cases of mutual and equal assessment of value, (5) cases where opponents differ in resource value and (6) cases of particularly complex assessment abilities that involve a comparison of the value of two resources. We examine the extent to which these studies support game theory predictions and suggest future areas of research. (C) 2008 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Understanding how animals fight with Lloyd Morgan's canon

Various game theory models have been used to explain animal contests. Here we attend to the presumed cognitive abilities required by these models with respect to information gathering and consequent decision making. Some, such as the hawk/dove game and self-assessment models require very limited cognitive ability. By contrast, the broadly accepted sequential assessment model requires that contestants know their own abilities and compare them with information gathered about their opponent to determine which has the greater resource-holding power. However, evidence for assessment of relative abilities is sparse and we suggest that this complex ability is probably beyond most animals. Indeed, perceptual limitations may restrict information about an individual's own displays and thus preclude comparison. We take a parsimonious view and conclude that simple summation of causal factors accounts for changes in fight motivation without requiring mutual evaluation of relative abilities. © 2012 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour.

Network Topology, Higher Orders of Stability and Efficiency

Stable networks of order r where r is a natural number refer to those networks that are immune to coalitional deviation of size r or less. In this paper, we introduce stability of a finite order and examine its relation with efficient networks under anonymous and component additive value functions and the component-wise egalitarian allocation rule. In particular, we examine shapes of networks or network architectures that would resolve the conflict between stability and efficiency in the sense that if stable networks assume those shapes they would be efficient and if efficient networks assume those shapes, they would be stable with minimal further restrictions on value functions.

Bricks vs. clicks: Which is better for marketing remanufactured products?

The economical and environmental benefits are the central issues for remanufacturing. Whereas extant remanufacturing research focuses primarily on such issues in remanufacturing technologies, production planning, inventory control and competitive strategies, we provide an alternative yet somewhat complementary approach to consider both issues related to different channels structures for marketing remanufactured products. Specifically, based on observations from current practice, we consider a manufacturer sells new units through an independent retailer but with two options for marketing remanufactured products: (1) marketing through its own e-channel (Model M) or (2) subcontracting the marketing activity to a third party (Model 3P). A central result we obtain is that although Model M is always greener than Model 3P, firms have less incentive to adopt it because both the manufacturer and retailer may be worse off when the manufacturer sells remanufactured products through its own e-channel rather than subcontracting to a third party. Extending both models to cases in which the manufacturer interacts with multiple retailers further reveals that the more retailers in the market, the greener Model M relative to Model 3P.

The Impact of Extension and Ecosystem Services on Smallholders’ Credit Constraint.

On formal credit markets, access to formal credit and reasonable credit terms of smallholder farmers
in rural sub-Saharan Africa is limited due to adverse selection. Financial institutions operating in
rural areas often cannot distinguish between borrowers (farmers) that are creditworthy and those that
are not, thus, allocate limited resource to agriculture to reduce credit risk. In the presence of limited business quality signaling by smallholder farmers, financial institutions shall demand for collateral and/or offer unfavorable contract terms. Moreover, agricultural productivity of rural sub-Saharan
Africa, dominated by subsistence or small-scale farmers, is also negatively impacted by the adverse
effect of climate change. A strategy that may make the farming practices of smallholder farmer’s
climate resilient and profitable may also improve smallholder farmer's access to formal credit. This
study investigates to what extent participating in ecosystem and extension services (EES) programs
signals business quality of smallholders, thus granting them credit accessibility. We collected data
on 210 smallholder farmers in 2013, comprising farmers that receive payments for ecosystem
services (PES) and farm management training from the International Small Group Tree Planting
Program (TIST) Kenya to test the aforementioned theory empirically. We use game theory,
particularly a screening and sorting model, to illustrate the prospects for farmers with EES to access
formal credit and to improve their credit terms given that they receive PES and banking services
training. Furthermore, the PES’ long term duration (10 – 30 years) generates stable cash-flow which
may be perceived as collateral substitute. Results suggest that smallholder farmers in the TIST
program were less likely to be credit constraint compared to non-TIST farmers. Distance to market,
education, livestock and farm income are factors that determine access to credit from microfinance
institutions in rural Kenya. Amongst farmers that have obtained loans, those keeping business records
enjoy more favorable formal credit conditions. These farmers were observed to pay ca. 5 percent less
interest rate in microfinance charges. For TIST farmers, this type of farm management practices may
be attributed to the banking services and other training they receive within the program. While the
availability of classical collateral (farmlands) and PES may reduce interest rate, the latter was found
to be statistically insignificant. This research underlines the importance of an effective extension
services in rural areas of developing countries and the need to improve gains from conservation
agriculture and ensuing PES. The benefits associated with EES and PES may encompass agricultural
financing.

An Intelligent Threat Prevention Framework with Heterogeneous Information

Three issues usually are associated with threat prevention intelligent surveillance systems. First, the fusion and interpretation of large scale incomplete heterogeneous information; second, the demand of effectively predicting suspects’ intention and ranking the potential threats posed by each suspect; third, strategies of allocating limited security resources (e.g., the dispatch of security team) to prevent a suspect’s further actions towards critical assets. However, in the literature, these three issues are seldomly considered together in a sensor network based intelligent surveillance framework. To address
this problem, in this paper, we propose a multi-level decision support framework for in-time reaction in intelligent surveillance. More specifically, based on a multi-criteria event modeling framework, we design a method to predict the most plausible intention of a suspect. Following this, a decision support model is proposed to rank each suspect based on their threat severity and to determine resource allocation strategies. Finally, formal properties are discussed to justify our framework.

Computational scheduling methods for integrating plug-in electric vehicles with power systems: a review

Traditional internal combustion engine vehicles are a major contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions and other air pollutants, such as particulate matter and nitrogen oxides. If the tail pipe point emissions could be managed centrally without reducing the commercial and personal user functionalities, then one of the most attractive solutions for achieving a significant reduction of emissions in the transport sector would be the mass deployment of electric vehicles. Though electric vehicle sales are still hindered by battery performance, cost and a few other technological bottlenecks, focused commercialisation and support from government policies are encouraging large scale electric vehicle adoptions. The mass proliferation of plug-in electric vehicles is likely to bring a significant additional electric load onto the grid creating a highly complex operational problem for power system operators. Electric vehicle batteries also have the ability to act as energy storage points on the distribution system. This double charge and storage impact of many uncontrollable small kW loads, as consumers will want maximum flexibility, on a distribution system which was originally not designed for such operations has the potential to be detrimental to grid balancing. Intelligent scheduling methods if established correctly could smoothly integrate electric vehicles onto the grid. Intelligent scheduling methods will help to avoid cycling of large combustion plants, using expensive fossil fuel peaking plant, match renewable generation to electric vehicle charging and not overload the distribution system causing a reduction in power quality. In this paper, a state-of-the-art review of scheduling methods to integrate plug-in electric vehicles are reviewed, examined and categorised based on their computational techniques. Thus, in addition to various existing approaches covering analytical scheduling, conventional optimisation methods (e.g. linear, non-linear mixed integer programming and dynamic programming), and game theory, meta-heuristic algorithms including genetic algorithm and particle swarm optimisation, are all comprehensively surveyed, offering a systematic reference for grid scheduling considering intelligent electric vehicle integration.

Analysing Web-Orchestrations Under Stress Using Uncertainty Profiles

An orchestration is a multi-threaded computation that invokes a number of remote services. In practice, the responsiveness of a web-service fluctuates with demand; during surges in activity service responsiveness may be degraded, perhaps even to the point of failure. An uncertainty profile formalizes a user's perception of the effects of stress on an orchestration of web-services; it describes a strategic situation, modelled by a zero-sum angel–daemon game. Stressed web-service scenarios are analysed, using game theory, in a realistic way, lying between over-optimism (services are entirely reliable) and over-pessimism (all services are broken). The ‘resilience’ of an uncertainty profile can be assessed using the valuation of its associated zero-sum game. In order to demonstrate the validity of the approach, we consider two measures of resilience and a number of different stress models. It is shown how (i) uncertainty profiles can be ordered by risk (as measured by game valuations) and (ii) the structural properties of risk partial orders can be analysed.