896 resultados para Fuzzy delphi method
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A soft linguistic evaluation method is proposed for the environmental assessment of physical infrastructure projects based on fuzzy relations. Infrastructure projects are characterized in terms of linguistic expressions of 'performance' with respect to factors or impacts and the 'importance' of those factors/impacts. A simple example is developed to illustrate the method in the context of three road infrastructure projects assessed against five factors/impacts. In addition, a means to include hard or crisp factors is presented and illustrated with respect to a sixth factor.
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Este trabalho teve como objetivo utilizar a lógica fuzzy para geração de zonas de manejo, na área agrária e ambiental. Uma das aplicações consistiu da utilização do método fuzzy C-means, para geração de zonas de manejo para a cultura do mamoeiro, em um plantio comercial localizado em São Mateus-ES, com base em determinações realizadas através de amostragens e análises químicas do solo, considerando os atributos: P, K, Ca, Mg, e Saturação por bases (V%). Aplicou-se também a lógica fuzzy para desenvolver e executar um procedimento para dar suporte ao processo de tomada de decisões, envolvendo análise multicritério, gerando mapas de adequabilidade ao uso público e a conservação no Parque Estadual da Cachoeira da Fumaça, no município de Alegre-ES, considerando como fatores a localização da cachoeira, o uso do solo, os recursos hídricos, as trilhas, os locais de acessos, a infraestrutura, a declividade da área, e utilizando a abordagem de Sistema de Informações Geográficas para análise e combinação da base de dados. A partir das zonas de manejo geradas, foi possível explicar a variabilidade espacial dos atributos do solo na área de estudo da cultura do mamoeiro, e observa-se que as similaridades entre as zonas geradas, a partir de diferentes atributos, mostrou variação, mas observa-se uma influência nos dados, principalmente pelos atributos P e V. A partir do zoneamento da Unidade de Conservação foi possível selecionar áreas mais aptas ao ecoturismo, sendo encontradas próximas da cachoeira, trilhas em zonas de reflorestamento e de Mata Atlântica. Quanto às áreas propensas a medidas de conservação localizam-se próximas à cachoeira e às estruturas do parque, devido à maior pressão antrópica exercida nesses locais. Outras áreas que se destacaram, foram as áreas de pastagem, por estarem em estágio de regeneração natural. Os resultados indicam áreas de mesmo potencial de produção do mamoeiro, ou quando aplicado à área ambiental, áreas que devem receber maior cuidado para utilização por ecoturismo e para preservação e servem de base para a tomada de decisões, visando melhor aproveitamento da área.
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OBJECTIVE: To introduce a fuzzy linguistic model for evaluating the risk of neonatal death. METHODS: The study is based on the fuzziness of the variables newborn birth weight and gestational age at delivery. The inference used was Mamdani's method. Neonatologists were interviewed to estimate the risk of neonatal death under certain conditions and to allow comparing their opinions and the model values. RESULTS: The results were compared with experts' opinions and the Fuzzy model was able to capture the expert knowledge with a strong correlation (r=0.96). CONCLUSIONS: The linguistic model was able to estimate the risk of neonatal death when compared to experts' performance.
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This paper proposes a new methodology to reduce the probability of occurring states that cause load curtailment, while minimizing the involved costs to achieve that reduction. The methodology is supported by a hybrid method based on Fuzzy Set and Monte Carlo Simulation to catch both randomness and fuzziness of component outage parameters of transmission power system. The novelty of this research work consists in proposing two fundamentals approaches: 1) a global steady approach which deals with building the model of a faulted transmission power system aiming at minimizing the unavailability corresponding to each faulted component in transmission power system. This, results in the minimal global cost investment for the faulted components in a system states sample of the transmission network; 2) a dynamic iterative approach that checks individually the investment’s effect on the transmission network. A case study using the Reliability Test System (RTS) 1996 IEEE 24 Buses is presented to illustrate in detail the application of the proposed methodology.
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This paper presents a methodology for distribution networks reconfiguration in outage presence in order to choose the reconfiguration that presents the lower power losses. The methodology is based on statistical failure and repair data of the distribution power system components and uses fuzzy-probabilistic modelling for system component outage parameters. Fuzzy membership functions of system component outage parameters are obtained by statistical records. A hybrid method of fuzzy set and Monte Carlo simulation based on the fuzzy-probabilistic models allows catching both randomness and fuzziness of component outage parameters. Once obtained the system states by Monte Carlo simulation, a logical programming algorithm is applied to get all possible reconfigurations for every system state. In order to evaluate the line flows and bus voltages and to identify if there is any overloading, and/or voltage violation a distribution power flow has been applied to select the feasible reconfiguration with lower power losses. To illustrate the application of the proposed methodology to a practical case, the paper includes a case study that considers a real distribution network.
Fuzzy Monte Carlo mathematical model for load curtailment minimization in transmission power systems
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This paper presents a methodology which is based on statistical failure and repair data of the transmission power system components and uses fuzzyprobabilistic modeling for system component outage parameters. Using statistical records allows developing the fuzzy membership functions of system component outage parameters. The proposed hybrid method of fuzzy set and Monte Carlo simulation based on the fuzzy-probabilistic models allows catching both randomness and fuzziness of component outage parameters. A network contingency analysis to identify any overloading or voltage violation in the network is performed once obtained the system states by Monte Carlo simulation. This is followed by a remedial action algorithm, based on optimal power flow, to reschedule generations and alleviate constraint violations and, at the same time, to avoid any load curtailment, if possible, or, otherwise, to minimize the total load curtailment, for the states identified by the contingency analysis. In order to illustrate the application of the proposed methodology to a practical case, the paper will include a case study for the Reliability Test System (RTS) 1996 IEEE 24 BUS.
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This paper present a methodology to choose the distribution networks reconfiguration that presents the lower power losses. The proposed methodology is based on statistical failure and repair data of the distribution power system components and uses fuzzy-probabilistic modeling for system component outage parameters. The proposed hybrid method using fuzzy sets and Monte Carlo simulation based on the fuzzyprobabilistic models allows catching both randomness and fuzziness of component outage parameters. A logic programming algorithm is applied, once obtained the system states by Monte Carlo Simulation, to get all possible reconfigurations for each system state. To evaluate the line flows and bus voltages and to identify if there is any overloading, and/or voltage violation an AC load flow has been applied to select the feasible reconfiguration with lower power losses. To illustrate the application of the proposed methodology, the paper includes a case study that considers a 115 buses distribution network.
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This thesis presents the Fuzzy Monte Carlo Model for Transmission Power Systems Reliability based studies (FMC-TRel) methodology, which is based on statistical failure and repair data of the transmission power system components and uses fuzzyprobabilistic modeling for system component outage parameters. Using statistical records allows developing the fuzzy membership functions of system component outage parameters. The proposed hybrid method of fuzzy set and Monte Carlo simulation based on the fuzzy-probabilistic models allows catching both randomness and fuzziness of component outage parameters. A network contingency analysis to identify any overloading or voltage violation in the network is performed once obtained the system states. This is followed by a remedial action algorithm, based on Optimal Power Flow, to reschedule generations and alleviate constraint violations and, at the same time, to avoid any load curtailment, if possible, or, otherwise, to minimize the total load curtailment, for the states identified by the contingency analysis. For the system states that cause load curtailment, an optimization approach is applied to reduce the probability of occurrence of these states while minimizing the costs to achieve that reduction. This methodology is of most importance for supporting the transmission system operator decision making, namely in the identification of critical components and in the planning of future investments in the transmission power system. A case study based on Reliability Test System (RTS) 1996 IEEE 24 Bus is presented to illustrate with detail the application of the proposed methodology.
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Fuzzy logic controllers (FLC) are intelligent systems, based on heuristic knowledge, that have been largely applied in numerous areas of everyday life. They can be used to describe a linear or nonlinear system and are suitable when a real system is not known or too difficult to find their model. FLC provide a formal methodology for representing, manipulating and implementing a human heuristic knowledge on how to control a system. These controllers can be seen as artificial decision makers that operate in a closed-loop system, in real time. The main aim of this work was to develop a single optimal fuzzy controller, easily adaptable to a wide range of systems – simple to complex, linear to nonlinear – and able to control all these systems. Due to their efficiency in searching and finding optimal solution for high complexity problems, GAs were used to perform the FLC tuning by finding the best parameters to obtain the best responses. The work was performed using the MATLAB/SIMULINK software. This is a very useful tool that provides an easy way to test and analyse the FLC, the PID and the GAs in the same environment. Therefore, it was proposed a Fuzzy PID controller (FL-PID) type namely, the Fuzzy PD+I. For that, the controller was compared with the classical PID controller tuned with, the heuristic Ziegler-Nichols tuning method, the optimal Zhuang-Atherton tuning method and the GA method itself. The IAE, ISE, ITAE and ITSE criteria, used as the GA fitness functions, were applied to compare the controllers performance used in this work. Overall, and for most systems, the FL-PID results tuned with GAs were very satisfactory. Moreover, in some cases the results were substantially better than for the other PID controllers. The best system responses were obtained with the IAE and ITAE criteria used to tune the FL-PID and PID controllers.
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Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Informática
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Dissertação apresentada para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores, pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia
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In 2000 the European Statistical Office published the guidelines for developing theHarmonized European Time Use Surveys system. Under such a unified framework,the first Time Use Survey of national scope was conducted in Spain during 2002–03. The aim of these surveys is to understand human behavior and the lifestyle ofpeople. Time allocation data are of compositional nature in origin, that is, they aresubject to non-negativity and constant-sum constraints. Thus, standard multivariatetechniques cannot be directly applied to analyze them. The goal of this work is toidentify homogeneous Spanish Autonomous Communities with regard to the typicalactivity pattern of their respective populations. To this end, fuzzy clustering approachis followed. Rather than the hard partitioning of classical clustering, where objects areallocated to only a single group, fuzzy method identify overlapping groups of objectsby allowing them to belong to more than one group. Concretely, the probabilistic fuzzyc-means algorithm is conveniently adapted to deal with the Spanish Time Use Surveymicrodata. As a result, a map distinguishing Autonomous Communities with similaractivity pattern is drawn.Key words: Time use data, Fuzzy clustering; FCM; simplex space; Aitchison distance
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The method of extracting effective atomic orbitals and effective minimal basis sets from molecular wave function characterizing the state of an atom in a molecule is developed in the framework of the "fuzzy" atoms. In all cases studied, there were as many effective orbitals that have considerable occupation numbers as orbitals in the classical minimal basis. That is considered to be of high conceptual importance
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The total energy of molecule in terms of 'fuzzy atoms' presented as sum of one- and two-atomic energy components is described. The divisions of three-dimensional physical space into atomic regions exhibit continuous transition from one to another. The energy components are on chemical energy scale according to proper definitions. The Becke's integration scheme and weight function determines realization of method which permits effective numerical integrations
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This paper describes a study that aimed to identify research priorities for the care of infants, children and adolescents at the sole tertiary referral hospital for children in Western Australia. The secondary aim was to stimulate nurses to explore clinical problems that would require further inquiry. Background. Planning for research is an essential stage of research development; involving clinicians in this exercise is likely to foster research partnerships that are pertinent to clinical practice. Nursing research priorities for the paediatric population have not previously been reported in Australia. Design. Delphi study. Method. Over 12 months in 2005-2006, a three-round questionnaire, using the Delphi technique, was sent to a randomly selected sample of registered nurses. This method was used to identify and prioritise nursing research topics relevant to the patient and the family. Content analysis was used to analyse Round I data and descriptive statistics for Round II and III data. Results. In Round I, 280 statements were identified and reduced to 37 research priorities. Analysis of data in subsequent rounds identified the top two priority research areas as (1) identification of strategies to reduce medication incidents (Mean = 6 center dot 47; SD 0 center dot 88) and (2) improvement in pain assessment and management (Mean = 6; SD 1 center dot 38). Additional comments indicated few nurses access the scientific literature or use research findings because of a lack of time or electronic access. Conclusions. Thirty-seven research priorities were identified. The identification of research priorities by nurses provided research direction for the health service and potentially other similar health institutions for children and adolescents in Australia and internationally. Relevance to clinical practice. The nurse participants showed concern about the safety of care and the well-being of children and their families. This study also enabled the identification of potential collaborative research and development of pain management improvement initiatives.