Evaluation of a Bayesian MCMC Random Effects Inference Methodology for Capture-Mark-Recapture Data

Monte Carlo simulation was used to evaluate properties of a simple Bayesian MCMC analysis of the random effects model for single group Cormack-Jolly-Seber capture-recapture data. The MCMC method is applied to the model via a logit link, so parameters p, S are on a logit scale, where logit(S) is assumed to have, and is generated from, a normal distribution with mean μ and variance σ2 . Marginal prior distributions on logit(p) and μ were independent normal with mean zero and standard deviation 1.75 for logit(p) and 100 for μ ; hence minimally informative. Marginal prior distribution on σ2 was placed on τ2=1/σ2 as a gamma distribution with α=β=0.001 . The study design has 432 points spread over 5 factors: occasions (t) , new releases per occasion (u), p, μ , and σ . At each design point 100 independent trials were completed (hence 43,200 trials in total), each with sample size n=10,000 from the parameter posterior distribution. At 128 of these design points comparisons are made to previously reported results from a method of moments procedure. We looked at properties of point and interval inference on μ , and σ based on the posterior mean, median, and mode and equal-tailed 95% credibility interval. Bayesian inference did very well for the parameter μ , but under the conditions used here, MCMC inference performance for σ was mixed: poor for sparse data (i.e., only 7 occasions) or σ=0 , but good when there were sufficient data and not small σ .

Appearance of red mark syndrome / cold water strawberry disease in Switzerland and Austria

Red mark syndrome (RMS) or cold water strawberry disease (CWSD) is a non-lethal skin disease of rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss that is of high economic importance in the UK. The disease is temperature-dependent, with up to 60% morbidity at water temperatures below 15 degrees C. Although CWSD is horizontally transmissible, the aetiology is still unknown. Here we describe the first cases of RMS on the European mainland in the alpine regions of Switzerland and Austria. In Switzerland, morbidity remained around 1% after the first outbreak, whereas in Austria no further cases were diagnosed.

Sakralität, Demokratie und Erziehung. Auseinandersetzungen mit der historischen Pädagogik Fritz Osterwalders

Bildungsgeschichte ist das Ergebnis wissenschaftlicher Rekonstruktion historischen Materials und der anschliessenden Interpretation der erarbeiteten Quellen, In Bezug zu den Arbeiten von Prof. Dr. Fritz Osterwalder fragen die hier vorliegenden Beiträge nach den Möglichkeiten und Grenzen methodischer und interpretativer Ansätze der Historischen Pädagogik. Thematisiert werden das Verhältnis von Erziehung und Demokratie, die Problematik pädagogischer Sakralität sowie die These von Kontinuität und Fortschritt innerhalb der historischen Entwicklung von Erziehungsinstitutionen.

260 Revolutionshelden : zur Erinnerung u. zum Nachdenken dem Reichspräsidenten Fritz Ebert u. d. deutschen Volke gewidment

von Ernst Rademacher

Die Juden der Frei- und Reichsstadt Dortmund und der Grafschaft Mark

Münster, Univ., Diss., 1913

Annalen der Juden in den preußischen Staaten besonders in der Mark Brandenburg

[Anton Balthasar König]