The relationship between implied and realized volatility : evidence from the Australian stock index option market

This paper examines the relationship between the volatility implied in option prices and the subsequently realized volatility by using the S&P/ASX 200 index options (XJO) traded on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) during a period of 5 years. Unlike stock index options such as the S&P 100 index options in the US market, the S&P/ASX 200 index options are traded infrequently and in low volumes, and have a long maturity cycle. Thus an errors-in-variables problem for measurement of implied volatility is more likely to exist. After accounting for this problem by instrumental variable method, it is found that both call and put implied volatilities are superior to historical volatility in forecasting future realized volatility. Moreover, implied call volatility is nearly an unbiased forecast of future volatility.

The land use and public transport accessibility index : phase two final report

The Urban Research Program (URP) was established in 2003 as strategic research and community engagement initiative of Griffith University. The strategic foci of the Urban Research Program are research and advocacy in an urban regional context. The Urban Research Program seeks to improve understanding of, and develop innovative responses to Australia's urban challenges and opportunities by providing training assistance. The authors aim to make the results of their research and advocacy work available as freely and widely as possible.

Assessing the impact of floods and flood legislation on residential property prices

The changing development and population sprawl in major cities, especially those located in high rainfall areas, has resulted in the need to review and re-assess potential flood impacts in these cities. In many cases these new flood lines and flood maps have placed residential property that was previously considered to be flood free to now be considered to be potentially flood liable. Previous research based in Sydney and the UK has identified the fact that residential property that has been subject to flooding has a decreased price and higher investment risk than flood free property in the same location. These studies have also shown that the greatest impact on residential property subject to flooding is just following a flood event. In June 2009, Brisbane City Council released revised flood maps for the Greater Brisbane region and these maps have identified areas that have not previously been considered flood liable. This paper will analyse the sale performance of flood liable streets in the main flood areas of Brisbane over the period January 1990 through to June 2009, to determine the variation in price for these flood liable areas to the residential property immediately adjoining them. The average sale price will be tracked on both a geographic location and socio-economic basis.

Telephone reliability of the Frenchay Activity Index and EQ-5D amongst older adults

Background Older adults may find it problematic to attend hospital appointments due to the difficulty associated with travelling to, within and from a hospital facility for the purpose of a face-to-face assessment. This study aims to investigate equivalence between telephone and face-to-face administration for the Frenchay Activities Index (FAI) and the Euroqol-5D (EQ-5D) generic health-related quality of life instrument amongst an older adult population. Methods Patients aged >65 (n = 53) who had been discharged to the community following an acute hospital admission underwent telephone administration of the FAI and EQ-5D instruments seven days prior to attending a hospital outpatient appointment where they completed a face-to-face administration of these instruments. Results Overall, 40 subjects' datasets were complete for both assessments and included in analysis. The FAI items had high levels of agreement between the two modes of administration (item kappa's ranged 0.73 to 1.00) as did the EQ-5D (item kappa's ranged 0.67–0.83). For the FAI, EQ-5D VAS and EQ-5D utility score, intraclass correlation coefficients were 0.94, 0.58 and 0.82 respectively with paired t-tests indicating no significant systematic difference (p = 0.100, p = 0.690 and p = 0.290 respectively). Conclusion Telephone administration of the FAI and EQ-5D instruments provides comparable results to face-to-face administration amongst older adults deemed to have cognitive functioning intact at a basic level, indicating that this is a suitable alternate approach for collection of this information.

Validating the functional capacity index : a comparison of predicted versus observed total body scores

Background: The Functional Capacity Index (FCI) was designed to predict physical function 12 months after injury. We report a validation study of the FCI. Methods: This was a consecutive case series registered in the Queensland Trauma Registry who consented to the prospective 12-month telephone-administered follow-up study. FCI scores measured at 12 months were compared with those originally predicted. Results: Complete Abbreviated Injury Scale score information was available for 617 individuals, of whom 587 (95%) could be assigned at least one FCI score (range, 1-17). Agreement between the largest predicted FCI and observed FCI score was poor ([kappa] = 0.05; 95% confidence interval, 0.00-0.10) and explained only 1% of the variability in observed FCI. Using an encompassing model that included all FCI assignments, agreement remained poor ([kappa] = 0.05; 95% confidence interval, -0.02-0.12), and the model explained only 9% of the variability in observed FCI. Conclusion: The predicted functional capacity poorly agrees with actual functional outcomes. Further research should consider including other (noninjury) explanatory factors in predicting FCI at 12 months.

Vulnerability of axially loaded columns subjected to transverse impact loads

Increased industrialisation has brought to the forefront the susceptibility of concrete columns in both buildings and bridges to vehicle impacts. Accurate vulnerability assessments are crucial in the design process due to possible catastrophic nature of the failures that can cause. This paper reports on research undertaken to investigate the impact capacity of the columns of low to medium raised building designed according to Australian Standards. Numerical simulation techniques were used in the process and validation was done by using experimental results published in the literature. The investigation thus far has confirmed that vulnerability of typical columns in five story buildings located in urban areas to medium velocity car impacts and hence these columns need to be re-designed (if possible) or retrofitted. In addition, accuracy of the simplified method presented in EN 1991 to quantify the impact damage was scrutinised. A simplified concept to assess the damage due to all collisions modes was introduced. The research information will be extended to generate a common data base to assess the vulnerability of columns in urban areas against new generation of vehicles.

Osteoarthritis Index delivered by mobile phone (m-WOMAC) is valid, reliable, and responsive

Objectives: To evaluate the validity, reliability and responsiveness of EDC using the WOMAC® NRS 3.1 Index on Motorola V3 mobile phones. ---------- Methods: Patients with osteoarthritis (OA) undergoing primary unilateral hip or knee joint replacement surgery were assessed pre-operatively and 3-4 months post-operatively. Patients completed the WOMAC® Index in paper (p-WOMAC®) and electronic (m-WOMAC®) format in random order. ---------- Results: 24 men and 38 women with hip and knee OA participated and successfully completed the m-WOMAC® questionnaire. Pearson correlations between the summated total index scores for the p-WOMAC® and m-WOMAC® pre- and post-surgery were 0.98 and 0.99 (p<0.0001). There was no clinically important or statistically significant between-method difference in the adjusted total summated scores, pre- and post-surgery (adjusted mean difference = 4.44, p = 0.474 and 1.73, p = 0.781). Internal consistency estimates of m-WOMAC® reliability were 0.87 – 0.98. The m-WOMAC® detected clinically important, statistically significant (p<0.0001) improvements in pain, stiffness, function and total index score. ---------- Conclusions: Sixty-two patients with hip and knee OA successfully completed EDC by Motorola V3 mobile phone using the m-WOMAC® NRS3.1 Index; completion times averaging only 1-1.5 minutes longer than the p-WOMAC® Index. Data were successfully and securely transmitted from patients in Australia to a server in the USA. There was close agreement and no significant differences between m-WOMAC® and p-WOMAC® scores. This study confirms the validity, reliability and responsiveness of the Exco InTouch engineered, Java-based m-WOMAC® Index application. EDC with the m-WOMAC® Index provides unique opportunities for using quantitative measurement in clinical research and practice.

A secure architecture for Australia’s index based e-health environment

This paper proposes a security architecture for the basic cross indexing systems emerging as foundational structures in current health information systems. In these systems unique identifiers are issued to healthcare providers and consumers. In most cases, such numbering schemes are national in scope and must therefore necessarily be used via an indexing system to identify records contained in pre-existing local, regional or national health information systems. Most large scale electronic health record systems envisage that such correlation between national healthcare identifiers and pre-existing identifiers will be performed by some centrally administered cross referencing, or index system. This paper is concerned with the security architecture for such indexing servers and the manner in which they interface with pre-existing health systems (including both workstations and servers). The paper proposes two required structures to achieve the goal of a national scale, and secure exchange of electronic health information, including: (a) the employment of high trust computer systems to perform an indexing function, and (b) the development and deployment of an appropriate high trust interface module, a Healthcare Interface Processor (HIP), to be integrated into the connected workstations or servers of healthcare service providers. This proposed architecture is specifically oriented toward requirements identified in the Connectivity Architecture for Australia’s e-health scheme as outlined by NEHTA and the national e-health strategy released by the Australian Health Ministers.

Numerical simulation of axially loaded concrete columns under transverse impact and vulnerability assessment

With a view to assessing the vulnerability of columns to low elevation vehicular impacts, a non-linear explicit numerical model has been developed and validated using existing experimental results. The numerical model accounts for the effects of strain rate and confinement of the reinforced concrete, which are fundamental to the successful prediction of the impact response. The sensitivity of the material model parameters used for the validation is also scrutinised and numerical tests are performed to examine their suitability to simulate the shear failure conditions. Conflicting views on the strain gradient effects are discussed and the validation process is extended to investigate the ability of the equations developed under concentric loading conditions to simulate flexural failure events. Experimental data on impact force–time histories, mid span and residual deflections and support reactions have been verified against corresponding numerical results. A universal technique which can be applied to determine the vulnerability of the impacted columns against collisions with new generation vehicles under the most common impact modes is proposed. Additionally, the observed failure characteristics of the impacted columns are explained using extended outcomes. Based on the overall results, an analytical method is suggested to quantify the vulnerability of the columns.

The concept of vulnerability and the protection of human subjects of research

This article provides an overview of the concept of vulnerability through the lens of the U.S. federal regulations for the protection of human subjects of research. General issues that emerge for nurse researchers working with regulated vulnerable populations are identified. Points of current controversy in the application of the regulations and current discourse about vulnerable groups are highlighted. Suggestions for negotiating the tension between federally regulated human subject requirements and the realities of research with vulnerable subjects are given. The limitations of the designation of vulnerable as a protection for human subjects will also be discussed.

Flood fatalities in contemporary Australia (1997-2008) : disaster medicine

Objective: Flood is the most common natural disaster in Australia and causes more loss of life than any other disaster. This article describes the incidence and causes of deaths directly associated with floods in contemporary Australia. ---------- Methods: The present study compiled a database of flood fatalities in Australia in the period of 1997–2008 inclusive. The data were derived from newspapers and historic accounts, as well as government and scientific reports. Assembled data include the date and location of fatalities, age and gender of victims and the circumstances of the death. ---------- Results: At least 73 persons died as a direct result of floods in Australia in the period of 1997–2008. The largest number of fatalities occurred in New South Wales and Queensland. Most fatalities occurred during February, and among men (71.2%). People between the ages of 10 and 29 and those over 70 years are overrepresented among those drowned. There is no evident decline in the number of deaths over time. 48.5% fatalities related to motor vehicle use. 26.5% fatalities occurred as a result of inappropriate or high-risk behaviour during floods. ---------- Conclusion: In modern developed countries with adequate emergency response systems and extensive resources, deaths that occur in floods are almost all eminently preventable. Over 90% of the deaths are caused by attempts to ford flooded waterways or inappropriate situational conduct. Knowledge of the leading causes of flood fatalities should inform public awareness programmes and public safety police enforcement activities.

Assessing the vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change

There is an urgent need to assess the vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change. This paper aims to provide an overview of current research, to identify knowledge gaps, and to propose future research needs in this challenging area. Evidence shows that climate change is affecting and will, in the future, have more (mostly adverse) impacts on ecosystems. Ecosystem degradation, particularly the decline of the life support systems, will undoubtedly affect human health and wellbeing. Therefore, it is important to develop a framework to assess the vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change, and to identify appropriate adaptation strategies to minimize the impact of climate change.

A discussion of the research performance evaluation in building and construction management discipline : the journal impact factors and SCI-index journals

The trend of diminished funding, demands for greater efficiency and higher public accountability have led to a rapid expansion of interest in the bibliometric assessment of research performance of universities. A pilot research is conducted to provide a preliminary overview of the research performance of the building and construction schools or departments through the analysis of bibliometric indicators including the journal impact factor (JIF) published by Institute for Scientific Information (ISI). The suitability of bibliometric evaluation approaches as a measure of research quality in building and construction management research field is discussed.