909 resultados para Flood dams and reservoirs
Resumo:
The Gangxi oil field has reached a stage of high water production. The reservoir parameters, such as reservoir physical characteristics, pore structure, fluid, have obviously changed. This thesis therefore carries out a study of these parameters that control reservoir characteristics, physical and chemical actions that have taken place within the reservoirs due to fluid injection, subsequent variations of reservoir macroscopic physical features, microscopic pore structures, seepages, and formation fluid properties. This study rebuilds a geologic model for this oil field, establishes a log-interpreting model, proposes a methodology for dealing with large pore channels and remnant oil distribution, and offers a basis for effective excavation of potential oil, recovery planning, and improvement of water-injection techniques. To resolve some concurrent key problems in the process of exploration of the Gangxi area, this thesis carries out a multidisciplinary research into reservoir geology, physical geography, reservoir engineering, and oil-water well testing. Taking sandstone and flow unit as objects, this study establishes a fine geologic model by a quantificational or semi-quantificational approach in order to understand the remnant oil distribution and the reservoir potential, and accordingly proposes a plan for further exploration. By rebuilding a geological model and applying reservoir-engineering methods, such as numerical simulation, this thesis studies the oil-water movement patterns and remnant-oil distribution, and further advances a deployment plan for the necessary adjustments and increase of recoverable reserves. Main achievements of this study are as follows: 1. The Minghazhen Formation in the Gangxi area is featured by medium-sinuosity river deposits, manifesting themselves as a transitional type between typical meandering and braided rivers. The main microfacies are products of main and branch channels, levee, inter-channel overflows and crevasse-splay floodplains. The Guantao Group is dominantly braided river deposit, and microfacies are mainly formed in channel bar, braided channel and overbank. Main lithofacies include conglomerate, sandstone, siltstone and shale, with sandstone facies being the principal type of the reservoir. 2. The reservoir flow unit of the Gangxi area can be divided into three types: Type I is a high-quality heterogeneous seepage unit, mainly distributed in main channel; Type II is a moderate-quality semi-heterogeneous seepage unit, mainly distributed in both main and branch channels, and partly seen within inter-channel overflow microfacies; Type III is a low-quality, relatively strong heterogeneous seepage unit, mainly distributed in inter-channel overflow microfacies and channel flanks. 3. Flow units and sedimentary microfacies have exerted relatively strong controls on the flowing of underground oil-water: (1) injection-production is often effective in the float units of Type I and II, whilst in the same group of injection-production wells, impellent velocity depends on flow unit types and injection-production spacing; (2) The injection-production of Type III flow unit between the injection-production wells of Type I and II flow units, however, are little effective; (3) there can form a seepage shield in composite channels between channels, leading to inefficient injection and production. 4. Mainly types of large-scale remnant-oil distribution are as follows: (1) remnant oil reservoir of Type III flow unit; (2) injection-production well group of remnant oil area of Type III flow unit; (3) remnant oil reservoirs that cannot be controlled by well network, including reservoir featured by injection without production, reservoir characterized by production without injection, and oil reservoir at which no well can arrive; (4) remnant oil area where injection-production system is not complete. 5. Utilizing different methods to deal with different sedimentary types, sub-dividing the columns of up to 900 wells into 76 chronostratigraphic units. Four transitional sandstone types are recognized, and contrast modes of different sandstone facies are summarized Analyzing in details the reservoirs of different quality by deciphering densely spaced well patterns, dividing microscopic facies and flow units, analyzing remnant oil distribution and its effect on injection-production pattern, and the heterogeneity. Theory foundation is therefore provided for further excavation of remnant oil. Re-evaluating well-log data. The understanding of water-flood layers and conductive formations in the Gangxi area have been considerably improved, and the original interpretations of 233 wells have changed by means of double checking. Variations of the reservoirs and the fluid and formation pressures after water injection are analyzed and summarized Studies are carried out of close elements of the reservoirs, fine reservoir types, oil-water distribution patterns, as well as factors controlling oil-gas enrichment. A static geological model and a prediction model of important tracts are established. Remaining recoverable reserves are calculated of all the oil wells and oil-sandstones. It is proposed that injection-production patterns of 348 oil-sandstones should be adjusted according to the analysis of adaptability of all kinds of sandstones in the injection-production wells.
Resumo:
Members of the taxonomically diverse Burkholderia cepacia complex have become a major health risk for patients with cystic fibrosis (CF). Although patient-to-patient transmission of B. cepacia strains has been well-documented, very little is known about possible vehicles of transmission and reservoirs for these micro-organisms. In this work, it is shown that strains of the B. cepacia complex can survive within different isolates of the genus Acanthamoeba. Trophozoites containing bacteria developed profuse cytoplasmic vacuolization. Vacuolization was not detected in trophozoites infected with live Escherichia coli or heat-killed B. cepacia, or by incubation of trophozoites with filter-sterilized culture supernatants, indicating that metabolically active intracellular bacteria are required for the formation of vacuoles. Experiments with two different B. cepacia strains and two different Acanthamoeba isolates revealed that bacteria display a low level of intracellular replication approximately 72-96 h following infection. In contrast, extracellular bacteria multiplied efficiently on by-products released by amoebae. The findings suggest that amoebae may be a reservoir for B. cepacia and possibly a vehicle for transmission of this opportunistic pathogen among CF patients.
Resumo:
We present data showing that arsenic (As) was codeposited with organic carbon (OC) in Bengal Delta sediments as As and OC concentrations are highly (p <0.001) positively correlated in core profiles collected from widely dispersed geographical sites with different sedimentary depositional histories. Analysis of modern day depositional environments revealed that the As-OC correlations observed in cores are due to As retention and high OC inputs in vegetated zones of the deltaic environment. We hypothesize that elevated concentrations of As occur in vegetated wetland sediments due to concentration and retention of arsenate in aerated root zones and animal burrows where copious iron(III) oxides are deposited. On burial of the sediment, degradation of organic carbon from plant and animal biomass detritus provides the reducing conditions to dissolve iron(III) oxides and release arsenite into the porewater. As tubewell abstracted aquifer water is an invaluable resource on which much of Southeast Asia is now dependent, this increased understanding of the processes responsible for As buildup and release will identify, through knowledge of the palaeosedimentary environment, which sediments are at most risk of having high arsenic concentrations in porewater. Our data allow the development of a new unifying hypothesis of how As is mobilized into groundwaters in river flood plains and deltas of Southeast Asia, namely that in these highly biologically productive environments, As and OC are codeposited, and the codeposited OC drives As release from the sediments.
Resumo:
We present data showing that arsenic (As) was codeposited with organic carbon (OC) in Bengal Delta sediments as As and OC concentrations are highly (p < 0.001) positively correlated in core profiles collected from widely dispersed geographical sites with different sedimentary depositional histories. Analysis of modern day depositional environments revealed that the As/OC correlations observed in cores are due to As retention and high OC inputs in vegetated zones of the deltaic environment. We hypothesize that elevated concentrations of As occur in vegetated wetland sediments due to concentration and retention of arsenate in aerated root zones and animal burrows where copious iron(III) oxides are deposited. On burial of the sediment, degradation of organic carbon from plant and animal biomass detritus provides the reducing conditions to dissolve iron(III) oxides and release arsenite into the porewater. As tubewell abstracted aquifer water is an invaluable resource on which much of Southeast Asia is now dependent, this increased understanding of the processes responsible for As buildup and release will identify, through knowledge of the palaeosedimentary environment, which sediments are at most risk of having high arsenic concentrations in porewater. Our data allow the development of a new unifying hypothesis of how As is mobilized into groundwaters in river flood plains and deltas of Southeast Asia, namely that in these highly biologically productive environments, As and OC are codeposited, and the codeposited OC drives As release from the sediments. We present data showing that arsenic (As) was codeposited with organic carbon (OC) in Bengal Delta sediments as As and OC concentrations are highly (p < 0.001) positively correlated in core profiles collected from widely dispersed geographical sites with different sedimentary depositional histories. Analysis of modern day depositional environments revealed that the As?OC correlations observed in cores are due to As retention and high OC inputs in vegetated zones of the deltaic environment. We hypothesize that elevated concentrations of As occur in vegetated wetland sediments due to concentration and retention of arsenate in aerated root zones and animal burrows where copious iron(III) oxides are deposited. On burial of the sediment, degradation of organic carbon from plant and animal biomass detritus provides the reducing conditions to dissolve iron(III) oxides and release arsenite into the porewater. As tubewell abstracted aquifer water is an invaluable resource on which much of Southeast Asia is now dependent, this increased understanding of the processes responsible for As buildup and release will identify, through knowledge of the palaeosedimentary environment, which sediments are at most risk of having high arsenic concentrations in porewater. Our data allow the development of a new unifying hypothesis of how As is mobilized into groundwaters in river flood plains and deltas of Southeast Asia, namely that in these highly biologically productive environments, As and OC are codeposited, and the codeposited OC drives As release from the sediments.
Resumo:
We assessed motor laterality in sheep to explore species-specific brain hemi-field dominance and how this could be affected by genetic or developmental factors. Further, we investigated whether directionality and strength of laterality could be linked to emotional stress in ewes and their lambs during partial separation. Forty-three ewes and their singleton lambs were scored on the (left/right) direction of turn in a y-maze to rejoin a conspecific (laterality test). Further, their behavioural response (i.e. time spent near the fence, vocalisations, and activity level) during forced separation by an open-mesh fence was assessed (separation test). Individual laterality was recorded for 44.2 % ewes (significant right bias) and 81.4 % lambs (equally biased to the left and the right). There was no significant association in side bias between dams and offspring. The Chi-squared test revealed a significant population bias for both groups (p < 0.05). Evolutionary adaptive strategies or stimuli-related visual laterality may provide explanation for this decision-making process. Absolute strength of laterality (irrespective of side) was high (Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, dams: D = 0.2; p < 0.001; lambs: D = 0.36, p < 0.0001). The Wilcoxon test showed that lateralised lambs and dams spent significantly more time near each other during separation than non-lateralised animals (p < 0.05), and that lateralised dams were also more active than non-lateralised ones. Arguably, the lateralised animals showed a greater attraction to their pair because they were more disturbed and thus required greater reassurance. The data show that measures of laterality offer a potential novel non-invasive indicator of separation stress.
Resumo:
Worldwide water managers are increasingly challenged to allocate sufficient and affordable water supplies to different water use sectors without further degrading river ecosystems and their valuable services to mankind. Since 1950 human population almost tripled, water abstractions increased by a factor of four, and the number of large dam constructions is about eight times higher today. From a hydrological perspective, the alteration of river flows (temporally and spatially) is one of the main consequences of global change and further impairments can be expected given growing population pressure and projected climate change. Implications have been addressed in numerous hydrological studies, but with a clear focus on human water demands. Ecological water requirements have often been neglected or addressed in a very simplistic manner, particularly from the large-scale perspective. With his PhD thesis, Christof Schneider took up the challenge to assess direct (dam operation and water abstraction) and indirect (climate change) impacts of human activities on river flow regimes and evaluate the consequences for river ecosystems by using a modeling approach. The global hydrology model WaterGAP3 (developed at CESR) was applied and further developed within this thesis to carry out several model experiments and assess anthropogenic river flow regime modifications and their effects on river ecosystems. To address the complexity of ecological water requirements the assessment is based on three main ideas: (i) the natural flow paradigm, (ii) the perception that different flows have different ecological functions, and (iii) the flood pulse concept. The thesis shows that WaterGAP3 performs well in representing ecologically relevant flow characteristics on a daily time step, and therefore justifies its application within this research field. For the first time a methodology was established to estimate bankfull flow on a 5 by 5 arc minute grid cell raster globally, which is a key parameter in eFlow assessments as it marks the point where rivers hydraulically connect to adjacent floodplains. Management of dams and water consumption pose a risk to floodplains and riparian wetlands as flood volumes are significantly reduced. The thesis highlights that almost one-third of 93 selected Ramsar sites are seriously affected by modified inundation patterns today, and in the future, inundation patterns are very likely to be further impaired as a result of new major dam initiatives and climate change. Global warming has been identified as a major threat to river flow regimes as rising temperatures, declining snow cover, changing precipitation patterns and increasing climate variability are expected to seriously modify river flow regimes in the future. Flow regimes in all climate zones will be affected, in particular the polar zone (Northern Scandinavia) with higher river flows during the year and higher flood peaks in spring. On the other side, river flows in the Mediterranean are likely to be even more intermittent in the future because of strong reductions in mean summer precipitation as well as a decrease in winter precipitation, leading to an increasing number of zero flow events creating isolated pools along the river and transitions from lotic to lentic waters. As a result, strong impacts on river ecosystem integrity can be expected. Already today, large amounts of water are withdrawn in this region for agricultural irrigation and climate change is likely to exacerbate the current situation of water shortages.
Resumo:
A traditional method of validating the performance of a flood model when remotely sensed data of the flood extent are available is to compare the predicted flood extent to that observed. The performance measure employed often uses areal pattern-matching to assess the degree to which the two extents overlap. Recently, remote sensing of flood extents using synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and airborne scanning laser altimetry (LIDAR) has made more straightforward the synoptic measurement of water surface elevations along flood waterlines, and this has emphasised the possibility of using alternative performance measures based on height. This paper considers the advantages that can accrue from using a performance measure based on waterline elevations rather than one based on areal patterns of wet and dry pixels. The two measures were compared for their ability to estimate flood inundation uncertainty maps from a set of model runs carried out to span the acceptable model parameter range in a GLUE-based analysis. A 1 in 5-year flood on the Thames in 1992 was used as a test event. As is typical for UK floods, only a single SAR image of observed flood extent was available for model calibration and validation. A simple implementation of a two-dimensional flood model (LISFLOOD-FP) was used to generate model flood extents for comparison with that observed. The performance measure based on height differences of corresponding points along the observed and modelled waterlines was found to be significantly more sensitive to the channel friction parameter than the measure based on areal patterns of flood extent. The former was able to restrict the parameter range of acceptable model runs and hence reduce the number of runs necessary to generate an inundation uncertainty map. A result of this was that there was less uncertainty in the final flood risk map. The uncertainty analysis included the effects of uncertainties in the observed flood extent as well as in model parameters. The height-based measure was found to be more sensitive when increased heighting accuracy was achieved by requiring that observed waterline heights varied slowly along the reach. The technique allows for the decomposition of the reach into sections, with different effective channel friction parameters used in different sections, which in this case resulted in lower r.m.s. height differences between observed and modelled waterlines than those achieved by runs using a single friction parameter for the whole reach. However, a validation of the modelled inundation uncertainty using the calibration event showed a significant difference between the uncertainty map and the observed flood extent. While this was true for both measures, the difference was especially significant for the height-based one. This is likely to be due to the conceptually simple flood inundation model and the coarse application resolution employed in this case. The increased sensitivity of the height-based measure may lead to an increased onus being placed on the model developer in the production of a valid model
Resumo:
Although numerous field studies have evaluated flow and transport processes in salt marsh channels, the overall role of channels in delivering and removing material from salt marsh platforms is still poorly characterised. In this paper, we consider this issue based on a numerical hydrodynamic model for a prototype marsh system and on a field survey of the cross-sectional geometry of a marsh channel network. Results of the numerical simulations indicate that the channel transfers approximately three times the volume of water that would be estimated from mass balance considerations alone. Marsh platform roughness exerts a significant influence on the partitioning of discharge between the channel and the marsh platform edge, alters flow patterns on the marsh platform due to its effects on channel-to-platform transfer and also controls the timing of peak discharge relative to marsh-edge overtopping. Although peak channel discharges and velocities are associated with the flood tide and marsh inundation, a larger volume of water is transferred by the channel during ebb flows, a portion of which transfer takes place after the tidal height is below the marsh platform. Detailed surveys of the marsh channels crossing a series of transects at Upper Stiffkey Marsh, north Norfolk, England, show that the total channel cross-sectional area increases linearly with catchment area in the inner part of the marsh, which is consistent with the increase in shoreward tidal prism removed by the channels. Toward the marsh edge, however, a deficit in the total cross-sectional area develops, suggesting that discharge partitioning between the marsh channels and the marsh platform edge may also be expressed in the morphology of marsh channel systems.
Resumo:
Despite the success of studies attempting to integrate remotely sensed data and flood modelling and the need to provide near-real time data routinely on a global scale as well as setting up online data archives, there is to date a lack of spatially and temporally distributed hydraulic parameters to support ongoing efforts in modelling. Therefore, the objective of this project is to provide a global evaluation and benchmark data set of floodplain water stages with uncertainties and assimilation in a large scale flood model using space-borne radar imagery. An algorithm is developed for automated retrieval of water stages with uncertainties from a sequence of radar imagery and data are assimilated in a flood model using the Tewkesbury 2007 flood event as a feasibility study. The retrieval method that we employ is based on possibility theory which is an extension of fuzzy sets and that encompasses probability theory. In our case we first attempt to identify main sources of uncertainty in the retrieval of water stages from radar imagery for which we define physically meaningful ranges of parameter values. Possibilities of values are then computed for each parameter using a triangular ‘membership’ function. This procedure allows the computation of possible values of water stages at maximum flood extents along a river at many different locations. At a later stage in the project these data are then used in assimilation, calibration or validation of a flood model. The application is subsequently extended to a global scale using wide swath radar imagery and a simple global flood forecasting model thereby providing improved river discharge estimates to update the latter.
Resumo:
The control of fishing mortality via fishing effort remains fundamental to most fisheries management strategies even at the local community or co-management level. Decisions to support such strategies require knowledge of the underlying response of the catch to changes in effort. Even under adaptive management strategies, imprecise knowledge of the response is likely to help accelerate the adaptive learning process. Data and institutional capacity requirements to employ multi-species biomass dynamics and age-structured models invariably render their use impractical particularly in less developed regions of the world. Surplus production models fitted to catch and effort data aggregated across all species offer viable alternatives. The current paper seeks models of this type that best describe the multi-species catch–effort responses in floodplain-rivers, lakes and reservoirs and reef-based fisheries based upon among fishery comparisons, building on earlier work. Three alternative surplus production models were fitted to estimates of catch per unit area (CPUA) and fisher density for 258 fisheries in Africa, Asia and South America. In all cases examined, the best or equal best fitting model was the Fox type, explaining up to 90% of the variation in CPUA. For lake and reservoir fisheries in Africa and Asia, the Schaefer and an asymptotic model fitted equally well. The Fox model estimates of fisher density (fishers km−2) at maximum yield (iMY) for floodplain-rivers, African lakes and reservoirs and reef-based fisheries are 13.7 (95% CI [11.8, 16.4]); 27.8 (95% CI [17.5, 66.7]) and 643 (95% CI [459,1075]), respectively and compare well with earlier estimates. Corresponding estimates of maximum yield are also given. The significantly higher value of iMY for reef-based fisheries compared to estimates for rivers and lakes reflects the use of a different measure of fisher density based upon human population size estimates. The models predict that maximum yield is achieved at a higher fishing intensity in Asian lakes compared to those in Africa. This may reflect the common practice in Asia of stocking lakes to augment natural recruitment. Because of the equilibrium assumptions underlying the models, all the estimates of maximum yield and corresponding levels of effort should be treated with caution.
Resumo:
We review the sea-level and energy budgets together from 1961, using recent and updated estimates of all terms. From 1972 to 2008, the observed sea-level rise (1.8 ± 0.2 mm yr−1 from tide gauges alone and 2.1 ± 0.2 mm yr−1 from a combination of tide gauges and altimeter observations) agrees well with the sum of contributions (1.8 ± 0.4 mm yr−1) in magnitude and with both having similar increases in the rate of rise during the period. The largest contributions come from ocean thermal expansion (0.8 mm yr−1) and the melting of glaciers and ice caps (0.7 mm yr−1), with Greenland and Antarctica contributing about 0.4 mm yr−1. The cryospheric contributions increase through the period (particularly in the 1990s) but the thermosteric contribution increases less rapidly. We include an improved estimate of aquifer depletion (0.3 mm yr−1), partially offsetting the retention of water in dams and giving a total terrestrial storage contribution of −0.1 mm yr−1. Ocean warming (90% of the total of the Earth's energy increase) continues through to the end of the record, in agreement with continued greenhouse gas forcing. The aerosol forcing, inferred as a residual in the atmospheric energy balance, is estimated as −0.8 ± 0.4 W m−2 for the 1980s and early 1990s. It increases in the late 1990s, as is required for consistency with little surface warming over the last decade. This increase is likely at least partially related to substantial increases in aerosol emissions from developing nations and moderate volcanic activity
Resumo:
Early and effective flood warning is essential to initiate timely measures to reduce loss of life and economic damage. The availability of several global ensemble weather prediction systems through the “THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble” (TIGGE) archive provides an opportunity to explore new dimensions in early flood forecasting and warning. TIGGE data has been used as meteorological input to the European Flood Alert System (EFAS) for a case study of a flood event in Romania in October 2007. Results illustrate that awareness for this case of flooding could have been raised as early as 8 days before the event and how the subsequent forecasts provide increasing insight into the range of possible flood conditions. This first assessment of one flood event illustrates the potential value of the TIGGE archive and the grand-ensembles approach to raise preparedness and thus to reduce the socio-economic impact of floods.
Resumo:
This study aims to characterise the rainfall exceptionality and the meteorological context of the 20 February 2010 flash-floods in Madeira (Portugal). Daily and hourly precipitation records from the available rain-gauge station networks are evaluated in order to reconstitute the temporal evolution of the rainstorm, as its geographic incidence, contributing to understand the flash-flood dynamics and the type and spatial distribution of the associated impacts. The exceptionality of the rainstorm is further confirmed by the return period associated with the daily precipitation registered at the two long-term record stations, with 146.9 mm observed in the city of Funchal and 333.8 mm on the mountain top, corresponding to an estimated return period of approximately 290 yr and 90 yr, respectively. Furthermore, the synoptic associated situation responsible for the flash-floods is analysed using different sources of information, e.g., weather charts, reanalysis data, Meteosat images and radiosounding data, with the focus on two main issues: (1) the dynamical conditions that promoted such anomalous humidity availability over the Madeira region on 20 February 2010 and (2) the uplift mechanism that induced deep convection activity.
Resumo:
Studying the pathogenesis of an infectious disease like colibacillosis requires an understanding of the responses of target hosts to the organism both as a pathogen and as a commensal. The mucosal immune system constitutes the primary line of defence against luminal micro-organisms. The immunoglobulin-superfamily-based adaptive immune system evolved in the earliest jawed vertebrates, and the adaptive and innate immune system of humans, mice, pigs and ruminants co-evolved in common ancestors for approximately 300 million years. The divergence occurred only 100 mya and, as a consequence, most of the fundamental immunological mechanisms are very similar. However, since pressure on the immune system comes from rapidly evolving pathogens, immune systems must also evolve rapidly to maintain the ability of the host to survive and reproduce. As a consequence, there are a number of areas of detail where mammalian immune systems have diverged markedly from each other, such that results obtained in one species are not always immediately transferable to another. Thus, animal models of specific diseases need to be selected carefully, and the results interpreted with caution. Selection is made simpler where specific host species like cattle and pigs can be both target species and reservoirs for human disease, as in infections with Escherichia coli.
Resumo:
This paper highlights some communicative and institutional challenges to using ensemble prediction systems (EPS) in operational flood forecasting, warning, and civil protection. Focusing in particular on the Swedish experience, as part of the PREVIEW FP6 project, of applying EPS to operational flood forecasting, the paper draws on a wider set of site visits, interviews, and participant observation with flood forecasting centres and civil protection authorities (CPAs) in Sweden and 15 other European states to reflect on the comparative success of Sweden in enabling CPAs to make operational use of EPS for flood risk management. From that experience, the paper identifies four broader lessons for other countries interested in developing the operational capacity to make, communicate, and use EPS for flood forecasting and civil protection. We conclude that effective training and clear communication of EPS, while clearly necessary, are by no means sufficient to ensure effective use of EPS. Attention must also be given to overcoming the institutional obstacles to their use and to identifying operational choices for which EPS is seen to add value rather than uncertainty to operational decision making by CPAs.