Generalised gamma bidding model

A generalised gamma bidding model is presented, which incorporates many previous models. The log likelihood equations are provided. Using a new method of testing, variants of the model are fitted to some real data for construction contract auctions to find the best fitting models for groupings of bidders. The results are examined for simplifying assumptions, including all those in the main literature. These indicate no one model to be best for all datasets. However, some models do appear to perform significantly better than others and it is suggested that future research would benefit from a closer examination of these.

Pupil shape as viewed along the horizontal visual field

Purpose: Changes in pupil size and shape are relevant for peripheral imagery by affecting aberrations and how much light enters and/or exits the eye. The purpose of this study is to model the pattern of pupil shape across the complete horizontal visual field and to show how the pattern is influenced by refractive error. Methods: Right eyes of thirty participants were dilated with 1% cyclopentolate and images were captured using a modified COAS-HD aberrometer alignment camera along the horizontal visual field to ±90°. A two lens relay system enabled fixation at targets mounted on the wall 3m from the eye. Participants placed their heads on a rotatable chin rest and eye rotations were kept to less than 30°. Best-fit elliptical dimensions of pupils were determined. Ratios of minimum to maximum axis diameters were plotted against visual field angle. Results: Participants’ data were well fitted by cosine functions, with maxima at (–)1° to (–)9° in the temporal visual field and widths 9% to 15% greater than predicted by the cosine of the field angle . Mean functions were 0.99cos[( + 5.3)/1.121], R2 0.99 for the whole group and 0.99cos[( + 6.2)/1.126], R2 0.99 for the 13 emmetropes. The function peak became less temporal, and the width became smaller, with increase in myopia. Conclusion: Off-axis pupil shape changes are well described by a cosine function which is both decentered by a few degrees and flatter by about 12% than the cosine of the viewing angle, with minor influences of refraction.

The impact of risk-reducing hysterectomy and bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy on survival in patients with a history of breast cancer – a population-based data linkage study

Prophylactic surgery including hysterectomy and bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy (BSO) is recommended in BRCA positive women, while in women from the general population, hysterectomy plus BSO may increase the risk of overall mortality. The effect of hysterectomy plus BSO on women previously diagnosed with breast cancer is unknown. We used data from a population-base data linkage study of all women diagnosed with primary breast cancer in Queensland, Australia between 1997 and 2008 (n=21,067). We fitted flexible parametric breast cancer specific and overall survival models with 95% confidence intervals (also known as Royston-Parmar models) to assess the impact of risk-reducing surgery (removal of uterus, one or both ovaries). We also stratified analyses by age 20-49 and 50-79 years, respectively. Overall, 1,426 women (7%) underwent risk-reducing surgery (13% of premenopausal women and 3% of postmenopausal women). No women who had risk-reducing surgery, compared to 171 who did not have risk-reducing surgery developed a gynaecological cancer. Overall, 3,165 (15%) women died, including 2,195 (10%) from breast cancer. Hysterectomy plus BSO was associated with significantly reduced risk of death overall (adjusted HR = 0.69, 95% CI 0.53-0.89; P =0.005). Risk reduction was greater among premenopausal women, whose risk of death halved (HR, 0.45; 95% CI, 0.25-0.79; P < 0.006). This was largely driven by reduction in breast cancer-specific mortality (HR, 0.43; 95% CI, 0.24-0.79; P < 0.006). This population-based study found that risk-reducing surgery halved the mortality risk for premenopausal breast cancer patients. Replication of our results in independent cohorts, and subsequently randomised trials are needed to confirm these findings.

Ocular surface health with contact lens wear

Eye care practitioners (ECPs) would tend to agree that wearing contact lenses increases the risk for infection, but millions of patients are still fitted with lenses every year because ECPs feel that the risk is manageable and that their patients' eye health can be protected. The Fusarium and Acanthamoeba keratitis outbreaks of years past were a wake-up call to manufacturers, ECPs, and regulatory agencies that risk cannot be managed without diligence, and that the complex relationship between contact lens materials, contact lens solutions, and compliance needs to be better understood in order to optimize the efficacy of contact lens care and improve care guidelines.

International survey of rigid contact lens fitting

Purpose To determine the extent of rigid contact lens fitting worldwide and to characterize the associated demographics and fitting patterns. Methods Survey forms were sent to contact lens fitters in up to 40 countries between January and March every year for five consecutive years (2007 to 2011). Practitioners were asked to record data relating to the first 10 contact lens fits or refits performed after receiving the survey form. Survey data collected between 1996 and 2011 were also analyzed to assess rigid lens fitting trends in seven nations during this period. Results Data were obtained for 12,230 rigid and 100,670 soft lens fits between 2007 and 2011. Overall, rigid lenses represented 10.8% of all contact lens fits, ranging from 0.2% in Lithuania to 37% in Malaysia. Compared with soft lens fits, rigid lens fits can be characterized as follows: older age (rigid, 37.3 ± 15.0 years; soft, 29.8 ± 12.4 years); fewer spherical and toric fits; more bifocal/multifocal fits; less frequent replacement (rigid, 7%; soft, 85%); and less part-time wear (rigid, 4%; soft, 10%). High-Dk (contact lens oxygen permeability) (36%) and mid-Dk (42%) materials are predominantly used for rigid lens fitting. Orthokeratology represents 11.5% of rigid contact lens fits. There has been a steady decline in rigid lens fitting between 1996 and 2011. Conclusions Rigid contact lens prescribing is in decline but still represents approximately 10% of all contact lenses fitted worldwide. It is likely that rigid lenses will remain as a viable, albeit increasingly specialized, form of vision correction.

Trends in Australian contact lens prescribing 2011

The 12th annual survey of Australian contact lens prescribing was conducted between January and April 2011, employing the same format as in previous years. About 3,000 optometrist members of Optometrists Association Australia were sent an e-mail message with a link to a downloadable questionnaire, and a request that this be accessed, printed and completed to provide details of the first 10 patients fitted with contact lenses after receipt of the questionnaire.

Trends in contact lens prescribing 2012

The 13th annual survey of Australian contact lens prescribing was conducted between January and April 2012. The same format as in previous years was employed. About 3,000 members of Optometrists Association Australia were sent an e-mail message with a link to a downloadable questionnaire, and a request that this be accessed, printed and completed to provide details of the first 10 patients fitted with contact lenses after receipt of the questionnaire.

Exploring retinal markers of diabetic neuropathy

Purpose To investigate the application of retinal nerve fibre layer (RNFL) thickness as a marker for severity of diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN) in people with Type 2 diabetes. Methods This was a cross-sectional study whereby 61 participants (mean age 61 [41-75 years], mean duration of diabetes 14 [1-40 years], 70% male) with Type 2 diabetes and DPN underwent optical coherence tomography (OCT) scans. Global and 4 quadrant (TSNI) RNFL thicknesses were measured at 3.45mm around the optic nerve head of one eye. Neuropathy disability score (NDS) was used to assess the severity of DPN on a 0 to 10 scale. Participants were divided into three age-matched groups representing mild (NDS=3-5), moderate (NDS=6-8) and severe (NDS=9-10) neuropathy. Two regression models were fitted for statistical analysis: 1) NDS scores as co-variate for global and quadrant RNFL thicknesses, 2) NDS groups as a factor for global RNFL thickness only. Results Mean (SD) RNFL thickness (µm) was 103(9) for mild neuropathy (n=34), 101(10) for moderate neuropathy (n=16) and 95(13) in the group with severe neuropathy (n=11). Global RNFL thickness and NDS scores were statistically significantly related (b=-1.20, p=0.048). When neuropathy was assessed across groups, a trend of thinner mean RNFL thickness was observed with increasing severity of neuropathy; however, this result was not statistically significant (F=2.86, p=0.065). TSNI quadrant analysis showed that mean RNFL thickness reduction in the inferior quadrant was 2.55 µm per 1 unit increase in NDS score (p=0.005). However, the regression coefficients were not statistically significant for RNFL thickness in the superior (b=-1.0, p=0.271), temporal (b=-0.90, p=0.238) and nasal (b=-0.99, p=0.205) quadrants. Conclusions RNFL thickness was reduced with increasing severity of DPN and the effect was most evident in the inferior quadrant. Measuring RNFL thickness using OCT may prove to be a useful, non-invasive technique for identifying severity of DPN and may also provide additional insight into common mechanisms for peripheral neuropathy and RNFL damage.

Retinal nerve fibre layer thickness is associated with higher risk of foot ulceration in diabetic peripheral neuropathy

Purpose To evaluate the association between retinal nerve fibre layer (RNFL) thickness and diabetic peripheral neuropathy in people with type 2 diabetes, and specifically those at higher risk of foot ulceration. Methods RNFL thicknesses was measured globally and in four quadrants (temporal, superior, nasal and inferior) at 3.45 mm diameter around the optic nerve head using optical coherence tomography (OCT). Severity of neuropathy was assessed using the Neuropathy Disability Score (NDS). Eighty-two participants with type 2 diabetes were stratified according to NDS scores (0-10) as: none, mild, moderate, and severe neuropathy. A control group was additionally included (n=17). Individuals with NDS≥ 6 (moderate and severe neuropathy) have been shown to be at higher risk of foot ulceration. A linear regression model was used to determine the association between RNFL and severity of neuropathy. Age, disease duration and diabetic retinopathy levels were fitted in the models. Independent t-test was employed for comparison between controls and the group without neuropathy, as well as for comparison between groups with higher and lower risk of foot ulceration. Analysis of variance was used to compare across all NDS groups. Results RNFL thickness was significantly associated with NDS in the inferior quadrant (b= -1.46, p=0.03). RNFL thicknesses globally and in superior, temporal and nasal quadrants did not show significant associations with NDS (all p>0.51). These findings were independent of the effect of age, disease duration and retinopathy. RNFL was thinner for the group with NDS ≥ 6 in all quadrants but was significant only inferiorly (p<0.005). RNFL for control participants was not significantly different from the group with diabetes and no neuropathy (superior p=0.07, global and all other quadrants: p>0.23). Mean RNFL thickness was not significantly different between the four NDS groups globally and in all quadrants (p=0.08 for inferior, P>0.14 for all other comparisons). Conclusions Retinal nerve fibre layer thinning is associated with neuropathy in people with type 2 diabetes. This relationship is strongest in the inferior retina and in individuals at higher risk of foot ulceration.

Development of Contact Lenses from a Biomaterial Point of View – Materials, Manufacture, and Clinical Application

Rigid lenses, which were originally made from glass (between 1888 and 1940) and later from polymethyl methacrylate or silicone acrylate materials, are uncomfortable to wear and are now seldom fitted to new patients. Contact lenses became a popular mode of ophthalmic refractive error correction following the discovery of the first hydrogel material – hydroxyethyl methacrylate – by Czech chemist Otto Wichterle in 1960. To satisfy the requirements for ocular biocompatibility, contact lenses must be transparent and optically stable (for clear vision), have a low elastic modulus (for good comfort), have a hydrophilic surface (for good wettability), and be permeable to certain metabolites, especially oxygen, to allow for normal corneal metabolism and respiration during lens wear. A major breakthrough in respect of the last of these requirements was the development of silicone hydrogel soft lenses in 1999 and techniques for making the surface hydrophilic. The vast majority of contact lenses distributed worldwide are mass-produced using cast molding, although spin casting is also used. These advanced mass-production techniques have facilitated the frequent disposal of contact lenses, leading to improvements in ocular health and fewer complications. More than one-third of all soft contact lenses sold today are designed to be discarded daily (i.e., ‘daily disposable’ lenses).

A comparison of MiL‐Lx and Hybrid‐III responses in seated and standing postures with blast mats in simulated under‐vehicle explosions

Blast mats that can be retrofitted to the floor of military vehicles are considered to reduce the risk of injury from under‐vehicle explosions. Anthropometric test devices (ATDs) are validated for use only in the seated position. The aim of this study was to use a traumatic injury simulator fitted with 3 different blast mats in order to assess the ability of 2 ATD designs to evaluate the protective capacity of the mats in 2 occupant postures under 2 severities. Tests were performed for each combination of mat design, ATD, severity and posture using an antivehicle under‐belly injury simulator. The differences between mitigation systems were larger under the H‐III compared to the MiL‐Lx. There was little difference in how the 2 ATDs and how posture ranked the mitigation systems. Results from this study suggest that conclusions obtained by testing in the seated position can be extrapolated to the standing. However, the different percentage reductions observed in the 2 ATDs suggests different levels of protection. It is therefore unclear which ATD should be used to assess such mitigation systems. A correlation between cadavers and ATDs on the protection offered by blast mats is required in order to elucidate this issue.

Use of cadavers and anthropometric test devices (ATDs) for assessing lower limb injury outcome from under‐vehicle explosions

Lower extremities are particularly susceptible to injury in an under‐vehicle explosion. Operational fitness of military vehicles is assessed through anthropometric test devices (ATDs) in full‐scale blast tests. The aim of this study was to compare the response between the Hybrid‐III ATD, the MiL‐Lx ATD and cadavers in our traumatic injury simulator, which is able to replicate the response of the vehicle floor in an under‐vehicle explosion. All specimens were fitted with a combat boot and tested on our traumatic injury simulator in a seated position. The load recorded in the ATDs was above the tolerance levels recommended by NATO in all tests; no injuries were observed in any of the 3 cadaveric specimens. The Hybrid‐III produced higher peak forces than the MiL‐Lx. The time to peak strain in the calcaneus of the cadavers was similar to the time to peak force in the ATDs. Maximum compression of the sole of the combat boot was similar for cadavers and MiL‐Lx, but significantly greater for the Hybrid‐III. These results suggest that the MiL‐Lx has a more biofidelic response to under‐vehicle explosive events compared to the Hybrid‐III. Therefore, it is recommended that mitigation strategies are assessed using the MiL‐Lx surrogate and not the Hybrid‐III.

Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia : tides, extra-tropical storm surges and mean sea level

The occurrence of extreme water levels along low-lying, highly populated and/or developed coastlines can lead to considerable loss of life and billions of dollars of damage to coastal infrastructure. Therefore it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood management, engineering and future land-use planning. This ensures the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. This paper estimates for the first time present day extreme water level exceedence probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. A high-resolution depth averaged hydrodynamic model has been configured for the Australian continental shelf region and has been forced with tidal levels from a global tidal model and meteorological fields from a global reanalysis to generate a 61-year hindcast of water levels. Output from this model has been successfully validated against measurements from 30 tide gauge sites. At each numeric coastal grid point, extreme value distributions have been fitted to the derived time series of annual maxima and the several largest water levels each year to estimate exceedence probabilities. This provides a reliable estimate of water level probabilities around southern Australia; a region mainly impacted by extra-tropical cyclones. However, as the meteorological forcing used only weakly includes the effects of tropical cyclones, extreme water level probabilities are underestimated around the western, northern and north-eastern Australian coastline. In a companion paper we build on the work presented here and more accurately include tropical cyclone-induced surges in the estimation of extreme water level. The multi-decadal hindcast generated here has been used primarily to estimate extreme water level exceedance probabilities but could be used more widely in the future for a variety of other research and practical applications.

Multiphasic construct studied in an ectopic osteochondral defect model

In vivo osteochondral defect models predominantly consist of small animals, such as rabbits. Although they have an advantage of low cost and manageability, their joints are smaller and more easily healed compared with larger animals or humans. We hypothesized that osteochondral cores from large animals can be implanted subcutaneously in rats to create an ectopic osteochondral defect model for routine and high-throughput screening of multiphasic scaffold designs and/or tissue-engineered constructs (TECs). Bovine osteochondral plugs with 4 mm diameter osteochondral defect were fitted with novel multiphasic osteochondral grafts composed of chondrocyte-seeded alginate gels and osteoblast-seeded polycaprolactone scaffolds, prior to being implanted in rats subcutaneously with bone morphogenic protein-7. After 12 weeks of in vivo implantation, histological and micro-computed tomography analyses demonstrated that TECs are susceptible to mineralization. Additionally, there was limited bone formation in the scaffold. These results suggest that the current model requires optimization to facilitate robust bone regeneration and vascular infiltration into the defect site. Taken together, this study provides a proof-of-concept for a high-throughput osteochondral defect model. With further optimization, the presented hybrid in vivo model may address the growing need for a cost-effective way to screen osteochondral repair strategies before moving to large animal preclinical trials.

Response variation of optically stimulated luminescence dosimeters

Introduction This study investigates uncertainties pertaining to the use of optically stimulated luminescence dosimeters (OSLDs) in radiotherapy dosimetry. The sensitivity of the luminescent material is related to the density of recombination centres [1], which is in the range of 1015–1016 cm-3. Because of this non-uniform distribution of traps in crystal growth the sensitivity varies substantially within a batch of dosimeters. However, a quantitative understanding of the relationship between the response of an OSLD and its sensitive volume has not yet been investigated or reported in literature. Methods In this work, OSLDs are scanned with a MicroCT scanner to determine potential sources for the variation in relative sensitivity across a selection of Landauer nanoDot dosimeters. Specifically, the correlation between a dosimeters relative sensitivity and the loading density of Al2O3:C powder was determined. Results When extrapolating the sensitive volume’s radiodensity from the CT data, it was shown that there is a non-uniform distribution incrystal growth as illustrated in Fig. 1. A plot of voxel count versus the element-specific correction factor is shown in Fig. 2 where each point represents a single OSLD. A line was fitted which has an R2-value of 0.69 and a P-value of 8.21 9 10-19. This data shows that the response of a dosimeter decreases proportionally with sensitive volume. Extrapolating from this data, a quantitative relationship between response and sensitive volume was roughly determined for this batch of dosimeters. A change in volume of 1.176 9 10-5 cm3 corresponds to a 1 % change in response. In other words, a 0.05 % change in the nominal volume of the chip would result in a 1 % change in response. Discussion and conclusions This work demonstrated that the amount of sensitive material is approximately linked to the total correction factor. Furthermore, the ‘true’ volume of an OSLD’s sensitive material is, on average, 17.90 % less than that which has been reported in literature, mainly due to the presence of air cavities in the material’s structure. Finally, the potential effects of the inaccuracy of Al2O3:C deposition increases with decreasing chip size. If a luminescent dosimeter were manufactured with a smaller volume than currently employed using the same manufacturing protocol, the variation in response from chip to chip would more than likely exceed the current 5 % range.