Detecting patterns of the spinoff decision of companies and accessing the determination of the abnormal returns

This paper examines value created through spinoffs over a period from 2002-2010. The net debt to average share price ratio and the debt to asset ratio of a company impacts the decision for this restructuring process statistically significant. The announcement of a spinoff yields abnormal returns (AR) for the stockholders of the parent. The relative size of the spin and the financial leverage correlated with the AR positively, whereas the net debt per share and the return on asset negatively. Therefore, no direct wealth transfer from the debt holders of a company to the equity holders can be derived from these results.

Public debt management, monetary policy and financial institutions

Despite the large size of the Brazilian debt market, as well the large diversity of its bonds, the picture that emerges is of a market that has not yet completed its transition from the role it performed during the megainflation years, namely that of providing a liquid asset that provided positive real returns. This unfinished transition is currently placing the market under severe stress, as fears of a possible default from the next administration grow larger. This paper analyzes several aspects pertaining to the management of the domestic public debt. The causes for the extremely large and fast growth ofthe domestic public debt during the seven-year period that President Cardoso are discussed in Section 2. Section 3 computes Value at Risk and Cash Flow at Risk measures for the domestic public debt. The rollover risk is introduced in a mean-variance framework in Section 4. Section 5 discusses a few issues pertaining to the overlap between debt management and monetary policy. Finally, Section 6 wraps up with policy discussion and policy recommendations.

Consumption-wealth ratio and expected stock returns: evidence from panel data

This paper investigates the role of consumption-wealth ratio on predicting future stock returns through a panel approach. We follow the theoretical framework proposed by Lettau and Ludvigson (2001), in which a model derived from a nonlinear consumer’s budget constraint is used to settle the link between consumption-wealth ratio and stock returns. Using G7’s quarterly aggregate and financial data ranging from the first quarter of 1981 to the first quarter of 2014, we set an unbalanced panel that we use for both estimating the parameters of the cointegrating residual from the shared trend among consumption, asset wealth and labor income, cay, and performing in and out-of-sample forecasting regressions. Due to the panel structure, we propose different methodologies of estimating cay and making forecasts from the one applied by Lettau and Ludvigson (2001). The results indicate that cay is in fact a strong and robust predictor of future stock return at intermediate and long horizons, but presents a poor performance on predicting one or two-quarter-ahead stock returns.

Are returns on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), FDI determinants?

Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) acquired an important role in the development process of the global economy. FDI inward stock was equivalent to an average of 32% of GDP for OECD countries in 2013. However, FDI affects a country’s Balance of Payments (BoP) in two ways: FDI flows are recorded in the BoP financial account while returns on FDI affect the BoP current account. Therefore, part of the positive contribution of inward FDI to a country on its financial account could be potentially offset by a negative contribution of FDI returns on the current account. The intent of this work is to complement the research on FDI determinants by introducing FDI returns as a variable in a gravity model where bilateral FDI outflows are the dependent variable. Moreover, using outward FDI flows as the dependent variable, the work allows looking at the behavior of Multinational Corporations (MNC) investing abroad. The results show that MNCs repatriate returns generating from the investments they make abroad. This is particularly true when high-income countries are involved: MNCs from high-income countries repatriate returns to their home countries from FDI made anywhere, while MNCs from middle-income countries repatriate returns from FDI in high-income countries. Repatriated returns are a relevant variable determining the value of FDI that a country makes in another country. The information on FDI returns is starting to become available to the public. This allows MNCs to sharpen their investment location decision models and national IPAs to better assess the two-fold BoP effects of promoting FDI.

Volatility of returns, variations in prices and volume traded: evidence from the main stocks in Brazil

We study the relationship between the volatility and the price of stocks and the impact that variables such as past volatility, financial gearing, interest rates, stock return and turnover have on the present volatility of these securities. The results show the persistent behavior of volatility and the relationship between interest rate and volatility. The results also showed that a reduction in stock prices are associated with an increase in volatility. Finally we found a greater trading volume tends to increase the volatility.

International asymmetries and the design of the International Financial System

Includes bibliography

Who has really paid for the Reconstruction of East Germany? Expected and Realized Returns on Real Estate Investments in East and West Germany in the 1990s

We evaluate the profitability of investments in residential property in Germany after unification with a focus on the comparison of East and West Germany. Calculations are carried out for (1) the after-tax return an investor might have expected at the beginning of the 1990s, and (2) the after-tax return that has been realized ten years after. We compare a set of statistical data for investments in fifty major cities by using complete financial budgeting. The results show that tax subsidies could not always protect investors from losing money, but they have boosted realized returns after tax considerably. Therefore, it was indeed the taxpayers, not the investors, who have borne the cost of reconstructing East Germany.

The Performance of Domestic and Foreign Banks: The Case of Korea and the Asian Financial Crisis

This paper considers the performance of banks, domestic and foreign, in Korea prior to, during, and immediately after the Asian financial crisis, examining how the profitability of those banks differed and identifying factors that explain why those differences existed. The performance of Korean banks deteriorated dramatically in 1998 with most banks recovering somewhat in 1999. Foreign banks did not experience the same negative effect on their returns on assets and equity as a rule. Several standard findings emerge. For example, equity to assets correlates positively with domestic, but not foreign, bank performance, as measured by the returns on assets and equity, even when the government recapitalized institutions that were performing quite badly. Also, foreign-currency deposits significantly and negatively correlate with domestic Korean bank performance, although only in the post-crisis period for regional banks. In sum, the domestic Korean banks suffered more severely from the Asian financial crisis than foreign banks.

A systematic review of organizational workplace wellness programs and their financial and nonfinancial incentives

Workplace wellness programs have revealed immense beneficial results for both the employer and employee. Examples of results include decrease in absenteeism, turnover rate, medical claims and increases in employee satisfaction, productivity, and return on investment. However, the approach taken when implementing requires greater attention since such programs and the financial and/or non-financial incentives chosen have shown to significantly impact employee participation thus the amount of savings the organization experiences. A systematic review was conducted to evaluate the overall effectiveness of workplace wellness programs on employee health status and lifestyle change, recognize the majority types of returns observed by such programs, and identify whether financial or non-financial incentives created a greater effect on the employee. Overall employee health status improvement occurred when participating in wellness programs. The dominant indirect benefit for the organization was employee weight loss leading to a decrease in absenteeism and direct benefits included decreases in medical claims and increases in return on investment. In general, factors such as rate of participation and health status changes were most influenced when a financial incentives was provided in the wellness program. The basis of providing a program with effective incentives resides from efforts made by the employer and their efforts to play a role on every level of the organization regarding planning, implementing, and strategizing the most optimal approach for creating changes for the employees' wellbeing and productivity, thus the organizations overall returns.^

The causal relationships in mean and variance between stock returns and foreign institutional investment in India

This paper examines the causalities in mean and variance between stock returns and Foreign Institutional Investment (FII) in India. The analysis in this paper applies the Cross Correlation Function approach from Cheung and Ng (1996), and uses daily data for the timeframe of January 1999 to March 2008 divided into two periods before and after May 2003. Empirical results showed that there are uni-directional causalities in mean and variance from stock returns to FII flows irrelevant of the sample periods, while the reverse causalities in mean and variance are only found in the period beginning with 2003. These results point to FII flows having exerted an impact on the movement of Indian stock prices during the more recent period.

Modelling and testing volatility spillovers in oil and financial markets for USA, UK and China

The primary purpose of the paper is to analyze the conditional correlations, conditional covariances, and co-volatility spillovers between international crude oil and associated financial markets. The paper investigates co-volatility spillovers (namely, the delayed effect of a returns shock in one physical or financial asset on the subsequent volatility or co-volatility in another physical or financial asset) between the oil and financial markets. The oil industry has four major regions, namely North Sea, USA, Middle East, and South-East Asia. Associated with these regions are two major financial centers, namely UK and USA. For these reasons, the data to be used are the returns on alternative crude oil markets, returns on crude oil derivatives, specifically futures, and stock index returns in UK and USA. The paper will also analyze the Chinese financial markets, where the data are more recent. The empirical analysis will be based on the diagonal BEKK model, from which the conditional covariances will be used for testing co-volatility spillovers, and policy recommendations. Based on these results, dynamic hedging strategies will be suggested to analyze market fluctuations in crude oil prices and associated financial markets.

An econometric analysis of ETF and ETF futures in financial and energy markets using generated regressors

It is well known that that there is an intrinsic link between the financial and energy sectors, which can be analyzed through their spillover effects, which are measures of how the shocks to returns in different assets affect each other’s subsequent volatility in both spot and futures markets. Financial derivatives, which are not only highly representative of the underlying indices but can also be traded on both the spot and futures markets, include Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), which is a tradable spot index whose aim is to replicate the return of an underlying benchmark index. When ETF futures are not available to examine spillover effects, “generated regressors” may be used to construct both Financial ETF futures and Energy ETF futures. The purpose of the paper is to investigate the covolatility spillovers within and across the US energy and financial sectors in both spot and futures markets, by using “generated regressors” and a multivariate conditional volatility model, namely Diagonal BEKK. The daily data used are from 1998/12/23 to 2016/4/22. The data set is analyzed in its entirety, and also subdivided into three subset time periods. The empirical results show there is a significant relationship between the Financial ETF and Energy ETF in the spot and futures markets. Therefore, financial and energy ETFs are suitable for constructing a financial portfolio from an optimal risk management perspective, and also for dynamic hedging purposes.

Technological and financial approaches to risk management in agriculture: an integrated approach

In the present paper, risk-management problems where farmers manage risk both through production decisions and through the use of market-based and informal risk-management mechanisms are considered. It is shown that many of these problems share a common structure, and that a unified and informative treatment of a broad spectrum of risk-management tools is possible within a cost-minimisation framework, under minimal conditions on their objective functions. Fundamental results are derived that apply regardless of the producer's preference towards risks, using only the no-arbitrage condition that agricultural producers never forego any opportunity to lower costs without lowering returns.

An interpretive approach to analysing the role and value of information systems in Jordanian financial organisations

Analysing investments in ISs in order to maximise benefits has become a prime concern, especially for private corporations. No formula of equilibrium exists that could link the injected amounts and accrued returns. The relationship is simply not straightforward. This thesis is based upon empirical work which involved sketching organisational ethnographies (four organographies and a sectography) into the role and value of information systems in Jordanian financial organisations. Besides deciphering the map of impacts, it explains the attributions of the variations in the impacts of ISs which were found to be related to the internal organisational processes: culturally and politically specific considerations, economically or technically rooted factors and environmental factors. The research serves as an empirical attempt to test out the applicability of adopting the interpretive paradigm to researching organisations in a developing country. The fieldwork comprised an exploratory stage, a detailed investigation of four case studies and a survey stage encompassing 16 organisations. Primary and secondary data were collected from multiple sources using a range of instruments. The evidence highlights the fact that little long term strategic planning was pursued; the emphasis was more focused on short term planning. There was no noticeable adoption of any strategic fit principle linking IS strategy to the corporate strategy. In addition, the benefits obtained were mostly intangible. Although ISs were central to the work of the organisations surveyed as the core technology, they were considered as tools or work enablers rather than weapons for competitive rivalry. The cultural specificity of IS impacts was evident and the cultural and political considerations were key factors in explaining the attributions of the variations in the impacts of ISs in JFOs. The thesis confirms that measuring the benefits of ISs is the problematic. However, in order to gain more insight, the phenomenon of "the use of ISs" has to be studied within its context.