Consumption Risk and the Cross-Section of Government Bond Returns

Peer reviewed

Making the governance of public bodies work : chair-chief executive relationships in practice

The authors gratefully acknowledge a grant from the British Academy (SG10591) and an award from the University of Aberdeen Knowledge Exchange and Transfer Fund.

Economic Fluctuations and Crime : Temporary and Persistent Effects

Peer reviewed

False Economy : Financialization, Crises and Socio-Economic Polarisation

Peer reviewed

Financing infrastructure development : time to unshackle the bonds?

The authors would like to thank the RICS for their financial support of the project and the numerous respondents who gave so freely of their time. Part of the research was supported by a grant from the Hong Kong-Scotland Partners in Post-Doctoral Research Scheme sponsored by the Research Grants Council of Hong Kong and the Scottish Government (S-HKU701/13).

Building an alternative economic network? Consumer cooperation in Scotland from the 1870s to the 1960s

Peer reviewed

Forecasting the term structure of volatility of crude oil price changes

Peer reviewed

Evaluating New Policy Instruments of the Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards : Footprints, Credit Transferring and Credit Trading

Publisher PDF

Evaluating New Policy Instruments of the Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards : Footprints, Credit Transferring and Credit Trading

Publisher PDF

A Study of How Economic Attitudes Are Shaped by Environmental Shocks and Life Experiences

Social attitudes, attitudes toward financial risk and attitudes toward deferred gratification are thought to influence many important economic decisions over the life-course. In economic theory, these attitudes are key components in diverse models of behavior, including collective action, saving and investment decisions and occupational choice. The relevance of these attitudes have been confirmed empirically. Yet, the factors that influence them are not well understood. This research evaluates how these attitudes are affected by large disruptive events, namely, a natural disaster and a civil conflict, and also by an individual-specific life event, namely, having children.

By implementing rigorous empirical strategies drawing on rich longitudinal datasets, this research project advances our understanding of how life experiences shape these attitudes. Moreover, compelling evidence is provided that the observed changes in attitudes are likely to reflect changes in preferences given that they are not driven just by changes in financial circumstances. Therefore the findings of this research project also contribute to the discussion of whether preferences are really fixed, a usual assumption in economics.

In the first chapter, I study how altruistic and trusting attitudes are affected by exposure to the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami as long as ten years after the disaster occurred. Establishing a causal relationship between natural disasters and attitudes presents several challenges as endogenous exposure and sample selection can confound the analysis. I take on these challenges by exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in exposure to the tsunami and by relying on a longitudinal dataset representative of the pre-tsunami population in two districts of Aceh, Indonesia. The sample is drawn from the Study of the Tsunami Aftermath and Recovery (STAR), a survey with data collected both before and after the disaster and especially designed to identify the impact of the tsunami. The altruistic and trusting attitudes of the respondents are measured by their behavior in the dictator and trust games. I find that witnessing closely the damage caused by the tsunami but without suffering severe economic damage oneself increases altruistic and trusting behavior, particularly towards individuals from tsunami affected communities. Having suffered severe economic damage has no impact on altruistic behavior but may have increased trusting behavior. These effects do not seem to be caused by the consequences of the tsunami on people’s financial situation. Instead they are consistent with how experiences of loss and solidarity may have shaped social attitudes by affecting empathy and perceptions of who is deserving of aid and trust.

In the second chapter, co-authored with Ryan Brown, Duncan Thomas and Andrea Velasquez, we investigate how attitudes toward financial risk are affected by elevated levels of insecurity and uncertainty brought on by the Mexican Drug War. To conduct our analysis, we pair the Mexican Family Life Survey (MxFLS), a rich longitudinal dataset ideally suited for our purposes, with a dataset on homicide rates at the month and municipality-level. The homicide rates capture well the overall crime environment created by the drug war. The MxFLS elicits risk attitudes by asking respondents to choose between hypothetical gambles with different payoffs. Our strategy to identify a causal effect has two key components. First, we implement an individual fixed effects strategy which allows us to control for all time-invariant heterogeneity. The remaining time variant heterogeneity is unlikely to be correlated with changes in the local crime environment given the well-documented political origins of the Mexican Drug War. We also show supporting evidence in this regard. The second component of our identification strategy is to use an intent-to-treat approach to shield our estimates from endogenous migration. Our findings indicate that exposure to greater local-area violent crime results in increased risk aversion. This effect is not driven by changes in financial circumstances, but may be explained instead by heightened fear of victimization. Nonetheless, we find that having greater economic resources mitigate the impact. This may be due to individuals with greater economic resources being able to avoid crime by affording better transportation or security at work.

The third chapter, co-authored with Duncan Thomas, evaluates whether attitudes toward deferred gratification change after having children. For this study we also exploit the MxFLS, which elicits attitudes toward deferred gratification (commonly known as time discounting) by asking individuals to choose between hypothetical payments at different points in time. We implement a difference-in-difference estimator to control for all time-invariant heterogeneity and show that our results are robust to the inclusion of time varying characteristics likely correlated with child birth. We find that becoming a mother increases time discounting especially in the first two years after childbirth and in particular for those women without a spouse at home. Having additional children does not have an effect and the effect for men seems to go in the opposite direction. These heterogeneous effects suggest that child rearing may affect time discounting due to generated stress or not fully anticipated spending needs.

El dinero en la historia del pensamiento económico: la teoría monetaria postkeynesiana y su confrontación con la ortodoxia

Las disputas en torno a determinados aspectos del dinero, como su neutralidad y el carácter endógeno o exógeno de la oferta monetaria, han sido permanentes entre las distintas escuelas de pensamiento y autores, estando su origen, probablemente, en la época de desarrollo del pensamiento escolástico. En este artículo pretendemos, en primer lugar, realizar un recorrido cronológico e histórico sobre el tratamiento científico económico del dinero, para, en segundo lugar, poner sobre la mesa la macroeconomía ortodoxa a la que han dado lugar las interpretaciones al respecto, así como los enfoques alternativos frente a este pensamiento dominante. Finalmente, intentamos poner en valor los desarrollos monetarios post-keynesianos, integrados en lo que denominan “Economía Monetaria de Producción”, confrontándolos con la llamada Nueva Síntesis Neoclásica.

Post-Crisis Belarus: Marxism and the Lender of Last Resort

Existing literature has examined the predictions and proscriptions of Karl Marx in response to the 2008 global financial crisis. However, the suggestions put forth by the Marxist-leaning literature never took hold and state-level banking and finance policies have remained largely unchanged. While many criticisms of Marxism exist, this paper examines Belarus, a ‘neo-communist’ or ‘market-socialist’ state, to provide a new perspective on the continuation of capitalism in the United States and Europe. In the case of Belarus, the International Monetary Fund and the Eurasian Economic Community's Anti-Crisis Fund provided both the critical liquidity needed to temporarily quell the effects of the financial crisis. Their demands meant that Belarus agreed to speed its move away from the Soviet-era finance and banking policies and more towards its western capitalist neighbors. Its failure to implement these policies further hurt its recovery. Examining Belarus' path to and out of its financial crisis makes apparent that the role of the international lender of last resort (LOLR). The LOLR acts as a key element in protecting states embroiled in the financial crisis from facing the possibility of making the difficult policy changes put forth by the Marxist literature. By ignoring its promises under the loan conditions from its LOLRs, Belarus moved further from the recovery promised by the Marxist suggestions.

Technology is Set to Change Real Estate Forever

Major developments in the technological environment can become commonplace very quickly. They are now impacting upon a broad range of information-based service sectors, as high growth Internet-based firms, such as Google, Amazon, Facebook and Airbnb, and financial technology (Fintech) start-ups expand their product portfolios into new markets. Real estate is one of the information-based service sectors that is currently being impacted by this new type of competitor and the broad range of disruptive digital technologies that have emerged. Due to the vast troves of data that these Internet firms have at their disposal and their asset-light (cloud-based) structures, they are able to offer highly-targeted products at much lower costs than conventional brick-and-mortar companies.

Updating Beliefs: Are economic agents inspired by rational action or according to ones hopes and fears?.

The purpose of this investigationwas to simulate a real life scenarioand explore the way economicagents update their beliefs. Do theyupdate according to what theyhope? Or do they update inspired byrational behavior?We mimicked the environment whicha recently high school graduate faceswhen entering college to see how astudent updates his beliefs in regardsto his classroom position. We examinedhow economic agents envisagethemselves through and through collegeand see if they update their beliefsabout a hypothesis A in the lightof new evidence B, or if they updatetheir beliefs subject to what theychoose they hope. In this sense weexplored the possibility of setting asidethe neoclassical assumption thatagents are anything more than hyperrational naïve optimizers acting on perfect (and in some cases, limited information)in order to turn back to anolder tradition in economic theory, thatis agents are recognizably human.