The Uniform World Model: A Methodology for Predicting the Health Impacts of Air Pollution

47 p.

An Economic Analysis of Texas Shrimp Season Closures

Management of the Texas penaeid shrimp fishery is aimed at increasing revenue from brown shrimp, Penaeus aztecus, landings and decreasing the level of discards. Since 1960 Texas has closed its territorial sea for 45-60 days during peak migration of brown shrimp to the Gulf of Mexico. In 1981 the closure was extended to 200 miles to include the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone. Simulation modeling is used in this paper to estimate the changes in landings, revenue, costs, and economic rent attributable to the Texas closure. Four additional analyses were conducted to estimate the effects of closing the Gulf 1- to 4-fathom zone for 45 and 60 days, with and without effort redirected to inshore waters. Distributional impacts are analyzed in terms of costs, revenues, and rents, by vessel class, shrimp species, vessel owner, and crew.

Economic analysis of climate change adaptation strategies in selected coastal areas in Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam

This report is an account of a cross-country study that covered Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines. Covering four sites (one each in Indonesia and Vietnam) and two sites in the Philippines, the study documented the impacts of three climate hazards affecting coastal communities, namely typhoon/flooding, coastal erosion and saltwater intrusion. It also analyzed planned adaptation options, which communities and local governments can implement, as well as autonomous responses of households to protect and insure themselves from these hazards. It employed a variety of techniques, ranging from participatory based approaches such as community hazard mapping and Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) to regression techniques, to analyze the impact of climate change and the behavior of affected communities and households.

Economic analysis of climate change adaptation strategies in selected coastal areas in Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam

Climate change with its attendant geophysical hazards is well studied. A great deal of attention has gone into analyzing climate change impacts as well as searching out possible mitigating adaptive strategies. These matters are very real concerns, especially for coastal communities. Such communities are often the most vulnerable to climate change, since their citizens frequently live in abject poverty and have limited capacity to adapt to geophysical hazards. Their situation is further complicated by the prospect of dealing with a confluence of hazards in comparison with those in other ecosystems. Against this backdrop Worldfish and the Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia (EEPSEA) collaborated to implement the cross-country study “Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability Assessments, Economic and Policy Analysis of Adaptation Strategies in Selected Coastal Areas in Indonesia, Philippines, and Vietnam”. As its title suggests the study covered selected sites in Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines. Employing a gamut of interdisciplinary methodologies -- ranging from community-based approaches such as community hazard mapping and focus group discussions (FGDs) to regression techniques -- the study documented the impacts from three climate hazards affecting coastal communities. These were typhoon/flooding, coastal erosion, and saltwater intrusion. The team also analyzed planned adaptation options suited to implementation by communities and local governments, augmenting autonomous responses of households to protect and insure themselves from these hazards.

Ecological and economic consequences of hypoxia: Topic 2 Report for the Integrated Assessment on Hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico

In this report we have attempted to evaluate the ecological and economic consequences of hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Although our initial approach was to rely on published accounts, we quickly realized that the body of published literature deahng with hypoxia was limited, and we would have to conduct our own exploratory analysis of existing Gulf data, or rely on published accounts from other systems to infer possible or potential effects of hypoxia. For the economic analysis, we developed a conceptual model of how hypoxia-related impacts could affect fisheries. Our model included both supply and demand components. The supply model had two components: (1) a physical production function for fish or shrimp, and (2) the cost of fishing. If hypoxia causes the cost of a unit of fishing effort to change, then this will result in a shift in supply. The demand model considered how hypoxia might affect the quality of landed fish or shrimp. In particular, the market value per pound is lower for small shrimp than for large shrimp. Given the limitations of the ecological assessment, the shallow continental shelf area affected by hypoxia does show signs of hypoxia-related stress. While current ecological conditions are a response to a variety of stressors, the effects of hypoxia are most obvious in the benthos that experience mortality, elimination of larger long-lived species, and a shifting of productivity to nonhypoxic periods (energy pulsing). What is not known is whether hypoxia leads to higher productivity during productive periods, or simply to a reduction of productivity during oxygen-stressed periods. The economic assessment based on fisheries data, however, failed to detect effects attributable to hypoxia. Overall, fisheries landings statistics for at least the last few decades have been relatively constant. The failure to identify clear hypoxic effects in the fisheries statistics does not necessarily mean that they are absent. There are several possibilities: (1) hypoxic effects are small relative to the overall variability in the data sets evaluated; (2) the data and the power of the analyses are not adequate; and (3) currently there are no hypoxic effects on fisheries. Lack of identified hypoxic effects in available fisheries data does not imply that effects would not occur should conditions worsen. Experience with other hypoxic zones around the globe shows that both ecological and fisheries effects become progressively more severe as hypoxia increases. Several large systems around the globe have suffered serious ecological and economic consequences from seasonal summertime hypoxia; most notable are the Kattegat and Black Sea. The consequences range from localized loss of catch and recruitment failure to complete system-wide loss of fishery species. If experiences in other systems are applicable to the Gulf of Mexico, then in the face of worsening hypoxic conditions, at some point fisheries and other species will decline, perhaps precipitously.

Assessing the impacts of experimental derelict fish traps in the U.S. Virgin Islands [Poster]

Fish traps are commonly used throughout the Caribbean to catch reef fish species and lobster and are the primary gear of choice for fishermen in the U.S. Virgin Islands. Once they are lost or abandoned they are referred to as derelict fish traps (DFTs)and a widespread concern exists that they contribute to ghostfishing. Ghostfishing occurs when derelict fishing gear continues to catch fish and induce mortality. Despite the public concerns that DFTs are an environmental threat, few studies have quantified the level of ghostfishing in the Caribbean. To address concerns from the fishing community and other marine stakeholders, this study provides the first experimental examination of ghostfishing impacts to fish and the potential economic impacts to fisheries in the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Impact of dead and sunken water hyacinth on biotic communities, the aquatic environment and socio-economic activities

The mobile water hyacinth, which was produced in growth zones, especially Murchison Bay, was mainly exported to three sheltered storage bays (Thruston, Hannington and Waiya). Between 1996 and May 1998, the mobile form of water hyacinth occupied about 800 ha in Thruston Bay, 750 ha in Hannington Bay and 140 ha in Waiya Bay). Biological control weevils and other factors, including localised nutrient depletion, weakened the weed that was confined to the bays and it sunk around October 1998. The settling to the bottom of such huge quantities of organic matter its subsequent decomposition and the debris from this mass was likely to have environmental impacts on biotic communities (e.g. fish and invertebrate), physico-chemical conditions (water quality), and on socio-economic activities (e.g. at fish landings, water abstraction, and hydro-power generation points). Sunken water. hyacinth debris could also affect nutrient levels in the water column and lead to reduction in the content of dissolved oxygen. The changes in nutrient dynamics and oxygen levels could affect algal productivity, invertebrate composition and fish communities. Socio-economic impacts of dead sunken weed were expected from debris deposited along the shoreline especially at fish landings, water abstraction and hydropower generation points. Therefore, environmental impact assessment studies were carried out between 1998 and 2002 in selected representative zones of Lake Victoria to identify the effects of the sunken water hyacinth biomass

Resource productivity and economic performance of producing fish seeds in government and private fanns in Bangladesh

The effect of various factors on spawn and fingerlings production in government and private farms was measured in this study. Primary data were collected from 45 private and 11 government farms from 9 selected districts covering major fish seed producing areas of Bangladesh. Results from Cobb-Douglas production function analysis indicated that the included variables had some positive impacts on returns from spawn and fingerlings. No input was found to be over used and increasing returns to scale was observed. Tabular analysis indicated that higher amount of input use produced higher level of yield, gross return and net return. The government farms were under utilized. For increased supply of fish seeds in the country more amount of specified inputs (feed and fertilizer) should be used for producing spawn and fingerlings especially in government farms.

The distribution and economic losses of alien species invasion to China

Invasive alien species have become one of the most serious environmental issues in the world. Data of taxon, origin, pathway, and environmental impacts of invasive alien microorganisms, invertebrates, amphibians and reptiles, fish, birds, mammals, herbs, trees, and, marine organisms in terrestrial, aquatic, and marine ecosystems of China were analyzed during 2001 and 2003, based on literature retrieval and field survey. There were 283 invasive alien species in China, and the number of species of invasive alien microorganisms, aquatic plants, terrestrial plants, aquatic invertebrates, terrestrial invertebrates, amphibians and reptiles, fish, and mammals were 19, 18, 170, 25, 33, 3, 10, and 5, respectively. The proportion of invasive alien species originated from America, Europe, Asia, Africa, and Oceania were 55.1, 21.7, 9.9, 8.1, and 0.6%, respectively. Methods for estimation of direct economic losses to agriculture, forestry, stockbreeding, fishery, road and water transportation, storage, water conservancy, environment and public facilities, and human health were established. Methods for estimation of indirect economic losses caused by invasive alien species to service functions of forest ecosystems, agricultural ecosystems, grassland ecosystems, and wetland ecosystems were also established. The total economic losses caused by invasive alien species to China were to the time of USD 14.45 billion, with direct and indirect economic losses accounting for 16.59% and 83.41% of total economic losses, respectively.

Impacts of LUCC processes on potential land productivity in China in the 1990s

Using meteorological data and RS dynamic land-use observation data set, the potential land productivity that is limited by solar radiation and temperature is estimated and the impacts of recent LUCC processes on it are analyzed in this paper. The results show that the influence of LUCC processes on potential land productivity change has extensive and unbalanced characteristics. It generally reduces the productivity in South China and increases it in North China, and the overall effect is increasing the total productivity by 26.22 million tons. The farmland reclamation and original farmlands losses are the primary causes that led potential land productivity to change. The reclamation mostly distributed in arable-pasture and arable-forest transitional zones and oasises in northwestern China has made total productivity increase by 83.35 million tons, accounting for 3.50% of the overall output. The losses of original farmlands driven by built-up areas invading and occupying arable land are mostly distributed in the regions which have rapid economic development, e.g. Huang-Huai-Hai plain, Yangtze River delta, Zhujiang delta, central part of Gansu, southeast coastal region, southeast of Sichuan Basin and Urumqi-Shihezi. It has led the total productivity to decrease 57.13 million tons, which is 2.40% of the overall output.

Comparing impacts of new cropping systems on biodiversity in traditional rural China

This study selected six geographically-similar villages with traditional and alternative cultivation methods (two groups of three, one traditional and two alternatives) in two counties of Henan Province, China—a representative area of the Huang-huai-hai Plain representing traditional rural China. Soil heavy metal concentrations, floral and faunal biodiversity, and socio-economic data were recorded. Heavy metal concentrations of surface soils from three sites in each village were analysed using Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS, chromium, nickel, copper, cadmium, and lead) and Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometer (AAS, zinc). The floral biodiversity of four land-use types was recorded following the Braun-Blanquet coverage-abundance method using 0.5×0.5m quadrats. The faunal biodiversity of two representative farmland plots was recorded using 0.3×0.3m quadrats at four 0.1m layers. The socio-economic data were recorded through face-to-face interviews of one hundred randomly selected households at each village. Results demonstrate different cultivation methods lead to different impact on above variables. Traditional cultivation led to lower heavy metal concentrations; both alternative managements were associated with massive agrochemical input causing heavy metal pollution in farmlands. Floral distribution was significantly affected by village factors. Diverse cultivation supported high floral biodiversity through multi-scale heterogeneous landscapes containing niches and habitats. Faunal distribution was also significantly affected by village factor nested within soil depth. Different faunal groups responded differently, with Acari being taxonomically diverse and Collembola high in densities. Increase in manual labour and crop number in villages using alternative cultivation may positively affect biodiversity. The results point to the conservation potential of diverse cultivation methods in traditional rural China and other regions under social and political reforms, where traditional agriculture is changing to unified, large-scale mechanized agriculture. This study serves as a baseline for conservation in small-holding agricultural areas of China, and points to the necessity of further studies at larger and longer scales.

Impacts of wildlife on household food security and income in northeastern Tanzania

We evaluated the impacts of wildlife on household food security and income in three semi-arid villages adjacent to Lake Manyara National Park (LMNP) and Mkomazi Game Reserve (MGR) in Northeastern Tanzania. Survey data were collected using both household interviews and human-wildlife conflict related archive information from the village government offices. Crop destruction by wildlife influenced both household food security and cash income. Crop damage to households was, on average, 0.08 ton/annum, equivalent to two months household loss of food and reduced household cash income by 1.3%. A combination of measures is proposed as incentives for conservation. These include provision of economic incentives, soft loans to initiate non-farm (e.g., ecotourism, business enterprises) projects to ease dependency on natural resources, increasing of reserves buffer zones and fencing of reserves.

Impacts of climate change on marine ecosystem production in societies dependent on fisheries

Growing human populations and changing dietary preferences are increasing global demands for fish, adding pressure to concerns over fisheries sustainability. Here we develop and link models of physical, biological and human responses to climate change in 67 marine national exclusive economic zones, which yield approximately 60% of global fish catches, to project climate change yield impacts in countries with different dependencies on marine fisheries. Predicted changes in fish production indicate increased productivity at high latitudes and decreased productivity at low/mid latitudes, with considerable regional variations. With few exceptions, increases and decreases in fish production potential by 2050 are estimated to be <10% (mean C3.4%) from present yields. Among the nations showing a high dependency on fisheries, climate change is predicted to increase productive potential in West Africa and decrease it in South and Southeast Asia. Despite projected human population increases and assuming that per capita fish consumption rates will be maintained1, ongoing technological development in the aquaculture industry suggests that projected global fish demands in 2050 could be met, thus challenging existing predictions of inevitable shortfalls in fish supply by the mid-twenty-first century. This conclusion, however, is contingent on successful implementation of strategies for sustainable harvesting and effective distribution of wild fish products from nations and regions with a surplus to those with a deficit. Changes in management effectiveness2 and trade practices5 will remain the main influence on realized gains or losses in global fish production.

Social impacts of a temperate fisheries closure: understanding stakeholders' views

The social dimensions of marine protected areas (MPAs) play an important role in MPA success, yet these social dimensions are little understood. We explore the social impacts arising from the establishment of an MPA using Lyme Bay (south west England) as a case study. Through a series of small group semi-structured interviews the social impacts experienced by fishermen (mobile and static gear), recreational users (divers and sea anglers) and recreation service providers (charter boat and dive businesses) were explored. The social impacts expressed varied according to activity in which the stakeholder group engaged. Negative themes included lengthening fishing trips, tension and conflict, fishermen identity, equity and uncertainty in the long-term. Positive themes included improved experiences for both commercial fishermen and recreational users, and expectations for long-term benefits. These impacts need to be understood because they influence stakeholder behaviour. Failure to interpret stakeholder responses may lead to poor decision-making and worsening stakeholder relations. These findings have implications for the success of the MPA in Lyme Bay, but also for the future network of marine conservation zones around the UK. Any assessment of MPA impacts must therefore identify social as well as economic and environmental change.

ICES and PICES Strategies for Coordinating Research on the Impacts of Climate Change on Marine Ecosystems

The social, economic, and ecological consequences of projected climate change on fish and fisheries are issues of global concern. In 2012, the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) and the North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES) established a Strategic Initiative on Climate Change Effects on Marine Ecosystems (SICCME) to synthesize and to promote innovative, credible, and objective science-based advice on the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems in the Northern Hemisphere. SICCME takes advantage of the unique and complementary strengths of the two organizations to develop a research initiative that focuses on their shared interests. A phased implementation will ensure that SICCME will be responsive to a rapidly evolving research area while delivering ongoing syntheses of existing knowledge, thereby advancing new science and methodologies and communicating new insights at each phase.