Extreme gender biased post-fledging brood division in the toc-toc

The possibility that parents of one sex may preferentially invest in offspring of a certain sex raises profound evolutionary questions about the relative worth of sons and daughters to their mothers and fathers. Post-fledging brood division-in which cacti parent feeds a different subset of offspring-has been well documented in birds. However, a lack of empirical evidence that this may be based oil offspring sex, combined with the theoretical difficulty of explaining such an interaction, has led researchers to consider a gender bias in post-fledging brood division highly unlikely. Here we show that in the toc-toc, Foudia sechellarum, postfledging brood division is extreme and determined by sex; where brood composition allows, male parents exclusively provision male fledglings, whereas female parents provision female fledglings. This is the first study to provide unambiguous evidence, based on molecular sexing, that sex-biased post-fledging brood division can occur in birds. Male and female parents provisioned at the same rate and neither offspring nor parent survival appeared to be affected by the sex of the parent or offspring, respectively. The current hypotheses predicting advantages for brood division and preferential care for one specific type of offspring are discussed in the light of our results.

Extreme complementarity in a macrocycle-tweezer complex

Interaction of a novel pyrene-based tweezer molecule with a macrocyclic ether-imide-sulfone results in formation of a strongly bound complex (K-a = 24 000 M-1) in which binding results not only from pi-pi stacking interactions involving pyrene units as donors and macrocyclic naphthalene-tetracarboximide and biphenylenedisulfone groups as acceptors but also from N-(HO)-O-... and C-(HO)-O-... hydrogen bonds and from "reverse" pi-stacking of the electron-poor isophthaloyl residue of the tweezer with an electron-rich 3-aminophenoxy residue of the macrocyclic imide.

Brief cognitive behavioural therapy for extreme shape concern: an evaluation

Objectives. This study was designed to evaluate a new brief cognitive-behavioural intervention to reduce concerns about body shape. Design. Women with high levels of shape concern (N = 50) were randomly assigned to cognitive behaviour therapy or applied relaxation (AR). Baseline assessments were made and then women received their treatment immediately after this assessment, ('immediate' treatment) or 5 weeks after this assessment, during which time no treatment was given ('delayed' treatment, DT). Methods. Shape concern and related cognitions and emotions were assessed at baseline, post-treatment and at 4 and 12 week follow-up (FU). Results. Immediate treatment was superior to DT in reducing shape concerns, and this difference was maintained at 4 week FU. The cognitive behavioural intervention was more effective than AR in changing shape concern and this difference was largely maintained for 3 months. Conclusions. These initial findings support the further investigation of this brief intervention.

Genome expansion and gene loss in powdery mildew fungi reveal tradeoffs in extreme parasitism

Powdery mildews are phytopathogens whose growth and reproduction are entirely dependent on living plant cells. The molecular basis of this life-style, obligate biotrophy, remains unknown. We present the genome analysis of barley powdery mildew, Blumeria graminis f.sp. hordei (Blumeria), as well as a comparison with the analysis of two powdery mildews pathogenic on dicotyledonous plants. These genomes display massive retrotransposon proliferation, genome-size expansion, and gene losses. The missing genes encode enzymes of primary and secondary metabolism, carbohydrate-active enzymes, and transporters, probably reflecting their redundancy in an exclusively biotrophic life-style. Among the 248 candidate effectors of pathogenesis identified in the Blumeria genome, very few (less than 10) define a core set conserved in all three mildews, suggesting thatmost effectors represent species-specific adaptations.

On the existence of extreme waves and the Stokes conjecture with vorticity

This is a study of singular solutions of the problem of traveling gravity water waves on flows with vorticity. We show that, for a certain class of vorticity functions, a sequence of regular waves converges to an extreme wave with stagnation points at its crests. We also show that, for any vorticity function, the profile of an extreme wave must have either a corner of 120° or a horizontal tangent at any stagnation point about which it is supposed symmetric. Moreover, the profile necessarily has a corner of 120° if the vorticity is nonnegative near the free surface.

A comparison of extreme European daily precipitation simulated by a global and a regional climate model for present and future climates

The intensity and distribution of daily precipitation is predicted to change under scenarios of increased greenhouse gases (GHGs). In this paper, we analyse the ability of HadCM2, a general circulation model (GCM), and a high-resolution regional climate model (RCM), both developed at the Met Office's Hadley Centre, to simulate extreme daily precipitation by reference to observations. A detailed analysis of daily precipitation is made at two UK grid boxes, where probabilities of reaching daily thresholds in the GCM and RCM are compared with observations. We find that the RCM generally overpredicts probabilities of extreme daily precipitation but that, when the GCM and RCM simulated values are scaled to have the same mean as the observations, the RCM captures the upper-tail distribution more realistically. To compare regional changes in daily precipitation in the GHG-forced period 2080-2100 in the GCM and the RCM, we develop two methods. The first considers the fractional changes in probability of local daily precipitation reaching or exceeding a fixed 15 mm threshold in the anomaly climate compared with the control. The second method uses the upper one-percentile of the control at each point as the threshold. Agreement between the models is better in both seasons with the latter method, which we suggest may be more useful when considering larger scale spatial changes. On average, the probability of precipitation exceeding the 1% threshold increases by a factor of 2.5 (GCM and RCM) in winter and by I .7 (GCM) or 1.3 (RCM) in summer.

A comparison of extreme value theory approaches for determining value at risk

This paper compares a number of different extreme value models for determining the value at risk (VaR) of three LIFFE futures contracts. A semi-nonparametric approach is also proposed, where the tail events are modeled using the generalised Pareto distribution, and normal market conditions are captured by the empirical distribution function. The value at risk estimates from this approach are compared with those of standard nonparametric extreme value tail estimation approaches, with a small sample bias-corrected extreme value approach, and with those calculated from bootstrapping the unconditional density and bootstrapping from a GARCH(1,1) model. The results indicate that, for a holdout sample, the proposed semi-nonparametric extreme value approach yields superior results to other methods, but the small sample tail index technique is also accurate.

Impact of increasing resolution and a warmer climate on extreme weather from NH extra-tropical cyclones

The effect of a warmer climate on the properties of extra-tropical cyclones is investigated using simulations of the ECHAM5 global climate model at resolutions of T213 (60 km) and T319 (40 km). Two periods representative of the end of the 20th and 21st centuries are investigated using the IPCC A1B scenario. The focus of the paper is on precipitation for the NH summer and winter seasons, however results from vorticity and winds are also presented. Similar number of events are identified at both resolutions. There are, however, a greater number of extreme precipitation events in the higher reso- lution run. The difference between maximum intensity distributions are shown to be statistically significant using a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. A Generalised Pareto Distribution is used to analyse changes in extreme precipitation and wind events. In both resolutions, there is an increase in the number of ex- treme precipitation events in a warmer climate for all seasons, together with a reduction in return period. This is not associated with any increased verti- cal velocity, or with any increase in wind intensity in the winter and spring. However, there is an increase in wind extremes in the summer and autumn associated with tropical cyclones migrating into the extra-tropics.

An extreme value theory approach to calculating minimum capital risk requirements

This paper investigates the frequency of extreme events for three LIFFE futures contracts for the calculation of minimum capital risk requirements (MCRRs). We propose a semiparametric approach where the tails are modelled by the Generalized Pareto Distribution and smaller risks are captured by the empirical distribution function. We compare the capital requirements form this approach with those calculated from the unconditional density and from a conditional density - a GARCH(1,1) model. Our primary finding is that both in-sample and for a hold-out sample, our extreme value approach yields superior results than either of the other two models which do not explicitly model the tails of the return distribution. Since the use of these internal models will be permitted under the EC-CAD II, they could be widely adopted in the near future for determining capital adequacies. Hence, close scrutiny of competing models is required to avoid a potentially costly misallocation capital resources while at the same time ensuring the safety of the financial system.

Who benefits from reducing the cost of formality? Quantile regression discontinuity analysis

This paper studies the effects of increasing formality via tax reduction and simplification schemes on micro-firm performance. It uses the 1997 Brazilian SIMPLES program. We develop a simple theoretical model to show that SIMPLES has an impact only on a segment of the micro-firm population, for which the effect of formality on firm performance can be identified, and that can be analyzed along the single dimensional quantiles of the conditional firm revenues. To estimate the effect of formality, we use an econometric approach that compares eligible and non-eligible firms, born before and after SIMPLES in a local interval about the introduction of SIMPLES. We use an estimator that combines both quantile regression and the regression discontinuity identification strategy. The empirical results corroborate the positive effect of formality on microfirms' performance and produce a clear characterization of who benefits from these programs.

Numerical convergence of the Block-Maxima approach to the generalized extreme value distribution

In this paper we perform an analytical and numerical study of Extreme Value distributions in discrete dynamical systems. In this setting, recent works have shown how to get a statistics of extremes in agreement with the classical Extreme Value Theory. We pursue these investigations by giving analytical expressions of Extreme Value distribution parameters for maps that have an absolutely continuous invariant measure. We compare these analytical results with numerical experiments in which we study the convergence to limiting distributions using the so called block-maxima approach, pointing out in which cases we obtain robust estimation of parameters. In regular maps for which mixing properties do not hold, we show that the fitting procedure to the classical Extreme Value Distribution fails, as expected. However, we obtain an empirical distribution that can be explained starting from a different observable function for which Nicolis et al. (Phys. Rev. Lett. 97(21): 210602, 2006) have found analytical results.

Extreme value distribution for singular measures

In this paper we perform an analytical and numerical study of Extreme Value distributions in discrete dynamical systems that have a singular measure. Using the block maxima approach described in Faranda et al. [2011] we show that, numerically, the Extreme Value distribution for these maps can be associated to the Generalised Extreme Value family where the parameters scale with the information dimension. The numerical analysis are performed on a few low dimensional maps. For the middle third Cantor set and the Sierpinskij triangle obtained using Iterated Function Systems, experimental parameters show a very good agreement with the theoretical values. For strange attractors like Lozi and H\`enon maps a slower convergence to the Generalised Extreme Value distribution is observed. Even in presence of large statistics the observed convergence is slower if compared with the maps which have an absolute continuous invariant measure. Nevertheless and within the uncertainty computed range, the results are in good agreement with the theoretical estimates.