Numerical modelling of the energy and water cycle of the Baltic Sea

This paper will introduce the Baltex research programme and summarize associated numerical modelling work which has been undertaken during the last five years. The research has broadly managed to clarify the main mechanisms determining the water and energy cycle in the Baltic region, such as the strong dependence upon the large scale atmospheric circulation. It has further been shown that the Baltic Sea has a positive water balance, albeit with large interannual variations. The focus on the modelling studies has been the use of limited area models at ultra-high resolution driven by boundary conditions from global models or from reanalysis data sets. The programme has further initiated a comprehensive integration of atmospheric, land surface and hydrological modelling incorporating snow, sea ice and special lake models. Other aspects of the programme include process studies such as the role of deep convection, air sea interaction and the handling of land surface moisture. Studies have also been undertaken to investigate synoptic and sub-synoptic events over the Baltic region, thus exploring the role of transient weather systems for the hydrological cycle. A special aspect has been the strong interests and commitments of the meteorological and hydrological services because of the potentially large societal interests of operational applications of the research. As a result of this interests special attention has been put on data-assimilation aspects and the use of new types of data such as SSM/I, GPS-measurements and digital radar. A series of high resolution data sets are being produced. One of those, a 1/6 degree daily precipitation climatology for the years 1996–1999, is such a unique contribution. The specific research achievements to be presented in this volume of Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics is the result of a cooperative venture between 11 European research groups supported under the EU-Framework programmes.

MEGAPOLI: concept of multi-scale modelling of megacity impact on air quality and climate

The EU FP7 Project MEGAPOLI: "Megacities: Emissions, urban, regional and Global Atmospheric POLlution and climate effects, and Integrated tools for assessment and mitigation" (http://megapoli.info) brings together leading European research groups, state-of-the-art scientific tools and key players from non-European countries to investigate the interactions among megacities, air quality and climate. MEGAPOLI bridges the spatial and temporal scales that connect local emissions, air quality and weather with global atmospheric chemistry and climate. The suggested concept of multi-scale integrated modelling of megacity impact on air quality and climate and vice versa is discussed in the paper. It requires considering different spatial and temporal dimensions: time scales from seconds and hours (to understand the interaction mechanisms) up to years and decades (to consider the climate effects); spatial resolutions: with model down- and up-scaling from street- to global-scale; and two-way interactions between meteorological and chemical processes.

Basic concepts for convection parameterization in weather forecast and climate models: COST Action ES0905 final report

The research network “Basic Concepts for Convection Parameterization in Weather Forecast and Climate Models” was organized with European funding (COST Action ES0905) for the period of 2010–2014. Its extensive brainstorming suggests how the subgrid-scale parameterization problem in atmospheric modeling, especially for convection, can be examined and developed from the point of view of a robust theoretical basis. Our main cautions are current emphasis on massive observational data analyses and process studies. The closure and the entrainment–detrainment problems are identified as the two highest priorities for convection parameterization under the mass–flux formulation. The need for a drastic change of the current European research culture as concerns policies and funding in order not to further deplete the visions of the European researchers focusing on those basic issues is emphasized.

Evolutionary model trees for handling continuous classes in machine learning

Model trees are a particular case of decision trees employed to solve regression problems. They have the advantage of presenting an interpretable output, helping the end-user to get more confidence in the prediction and providing the basis for the end-user to have new insight about the data, confirming or rejecting hypotheses previously formed. Moreover, model trees present an acceptable level of predictive performance in comparison to most techniques used for solving regression problems. Since generating the optimal model tree is an NP-Complete problem, traditional model tree induction algorithms make use of a greedy top-down divide-and-conquer strategy, which may not converge to the global optimal solution. In this paper, we propose a novel algorithm based on the use of the evolutionary algorithms paradigm as an alternate heuristic to generate model trees in order to improve the convergence to globally near-optimal solutions. We call our new approach evolutionary model tree induction (E-Motion). We test its predictive performance using public UCI data sets, and we compare the results to traditional greedy regression/model trees induction algorithms, as well as to other evolutionary approaches. Results show that our method presents a good trade-off between predictive performance and model comprehensibility, which may be crucial in many machine learning applications. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Selective Wrapping and Supramolecular Structures of Polyfluorene-Carbon Nanotube Hybrids

We report on the photophysical properties of single-walled carbon nanotube (SWNT) suspensions In toluene solutions of poly[9,9-dioctylfluorenyl-2,7-diyl](PFO). Steady-state and time-resolved photoluminescence spectroscopy in the near-infrared and visible spectral regions are used to study the interaction of the dispersed SWNTs with the wrapped polymer. Molecular dynamics simulations of the PFO-SWNT hybrids in toluene were carried out to evaluate the energetics of different wrapping geometries. The simulated fluorescence spectra in the visible region were obtained by the quantum chemical ZINDO-CI method, using a sampling of structures obtained from the dynamics trajectories. The tested schemes consider polymer chains aligned along the nanotube axis, where chirality has a minimal effect, or forming helical structures, where a preference for high chiral angles is evidenced. Moreover, toluene affects the polymer structure favoring the helical conformation. Simulations show that the most stable hybrid system is the PFO-wrapped (8,6) nanotube, in agreement with the experimentally observed selectivity.

Prigogine-Defay Ratio for an Ionic Glass-Former: Molecular Dynamics Simulations

The pressure dependence of the glass-transition temperature, T(g)(P), of the ionic glass-former 2Ca(NO(3))(2) center dot 3KNO(3), CKN, has been obtained by molecular dynamics (MD) simulations The liquid-glass difference of thermal expansivity, Delta alpha, heat capacity, Delta C(p), and isothermal compressibility, Delta kappa, have been calculated as a function of pressure. It has been found that the Ehrenfest relation dT(g)/dP = TV Delta alpha/Delta C(p) predicts the pressure dependence of T, but the other Ehrenfest relation, dT(g)/dP = Delta kappa/Delta alpha, does not. Consequently, the Prigogine-Defay ratio, Pi = Delta C(p)Delta kappa/TV Delta alpha(2), is Pi similar to 1.2 at low pressures, but increases 1 order of magnitude at high pressures. The pressure dependence of the Prigogine-Defay ratio is interpreted in light of recent explanations for the finding Pi > 1.

Klimatförändringar på vita duken. : Passiviserande underhållning eller mobilisering.

Vid en tillbakablick på de senaste 25 års spelfilmer kan man se hur ett växande klimathot funnits med som en berättelseingrediens i ett antal spelfilmer från Hollywood mainstreamfåra. (Axelson 2008). År 2004 kom katastroffilmen The Day after Tomorrow som gjordes till objekt för en brittisk publikstudie. I denna studie analyserar forskargruppen hur The Day After Tomorrow påverkade publikens tankar kring klimatförändringar (Lowe et al. 2006). Den irländske forskaren Pat Brereton har initierat ett projekt inom HERA (Humanities in the European Research Area) med ett forskningsfokus på hur medier och film bidragit till ett ekologiskt paradigm som enligt Brereton, långsamt växer sig allt starkare hos den europeiska allmänheten (Brereton 2008). I mitt paper vill jag diskutera Breretons hypotes om ett ökande ekologiskt sentiment under framväxt hos en europeisk allmänhet över tid och hur denna hypotes bör underkastas en kritisk diskussion utifrån ett receptionsperspektiv. Vad säger existerande publikorienterad receptionsforskning om på vilket sätt klimatförändringar gestaltade på film kan ha förmågan att beröra processer relaterade till människors teoretiska övertygelser om tillvaron, grundläggande värderingar samt en livsåskådningsmässig grundhållning (Lowe et al. 2006, Axelson 2008)?

Simulação numérica da combustão turbulenta de gás natural em câmara cilíndrica

O presente trabalho apresenta uma modelagem detalhada de processos de combustao turbulentos para um jato concentrico de combustıvel e ar. A modelagem é fundamentada nas equacões de conservacão de massa, de quantidade de movimento, de energia e de espécies quımicas. A turbulencia é resolvida pela utilizacão do modelo k- padrão. Dois modelos de reacões quımicas são apresentados. O modelo SCRS – Simple Chemically-Reacting Systems, que assume taxas instantâneas de reacões quımicas. Também é abordado o modelo E-A – Eddy Breakup - Arrhenius, que assume taxas finitas de reacões quımicas. A radiacão térmica, fenômeno de grande importância devido as altas temperaturas alcancadas em processos de combustão,é modelada através do Método das Zonas. O modelo da soma ponderada de gases cinzas – WSGGM,é usado para determinar o espectro de emissão e absorcão dos gases no processo. Para a solucão destas equacões diferenciais, juntamente com os modelos de turbulência, de reaçõoes químicas e radiação térmica, faz-se o uso do Método dos Volumes Finitos. Para validar a modelagem apresentada resolve-se o processo de combustão em uma câmara cilíndrica. A câmara de combustão usada áa mesma abordada no First Workshop on Aerodynamics of Steady State Combustion Chambers and Furnaces, organizado pela ERCORTAC - European Research Community On Flow Turbulence And Combustion, em outubro de 1994, que apresenta dados experimentais de temperatura e concentração das espécies químicas para várias posições de interesse no interior da câmara. Utiliza-se o gás natural como combustível e o ar atmosférico como oxidante. O processo de combustão sem pré-mistura é resolvido para a condição de excesso de combustível de 5 % para ambos os modelos, onde o gás natural é injetado por um duto circular central, e o ar atmosférico por um orifício anular externo a esse duto, no mesmo plano Uma reação química não estagiada é assumida para o modelo SCRS. Para o modelo E-A duas situações são resolvidas: combustão não estagiada, com uma etapa global de reação química; e reação quımica estagiada, com duas etapas globais. Os resultados obtidos com o modelo SCRS para a distribuição de temperaturas, em termos de tendências gerais, são razoáveis. Já as concentrações de espécies químicas não apresentam dados satisfatórios para este modelo. Para o modelo E-A os resultados apresentam boa concordância com os dados experimentais, principalmente para a situação em que o processo de combustão é assumido em duas etapas globais. ´E analisado em detalhe o papel desempenhado pela transferencia de calor por radiacao, com meio participante. Para melhor verificar as trocas de calor, assume-se uma camara de combustao cilındrica com paredes d’agua. A injecao do combustıvel e do oxidante e feita atraves de um queimador central, semelhante ao usado para validar a modelagem, porem com dois orifıcios concentricos para injecao de combustıvel. Nesta situação o efeito do turbilhonamento (swril), assumido como 20 % da velocidade axial de entrada, sobre a injecao de ar e computado atraves da condicao contorno da equacao de conservacao da quantidade de movimento angular. Nesta fase apenas o modelo E-A, com duas etapas globais de reacoes quımicas, e considerado, ja que o mesmo apresenta os melhores resultados. O processo de combustao e simulado com e sem a presenca da radiacao termica. Verifica-se que a presenca da radiacao termica homogeneiza a temperatura dos gases no interior da camara. Com isso verifica-se tambem alterações nas taxas de reacoes quımicas, modificando a magnitude das fracoes das especies quımicas Quando a radiacao termica e considerada efeitos de extinção local da chama sao verificados nas regioes de temperaturas mais altas, diminuindo o consumo de oxigenio e aumentando a producao de monoxido de carbono, caracterizando assim uma combustao incompleta. Em algumas situacoes tem-se uma variacao de temperatura de ate 500 K, a montante da chama. A radiacao termica tambem aumenta a taxa de transferencia de calor dos gases quentes para as paredes da camara, e desta para o seu exterior. Com os resultados obtidos a partir desta modelagem e possıvel determinar o perfil da zona de combustao, a distribuicao de concentracoes de especies quımicas, o campo de velocidades e as taxas de transferencia de calor para as paredes da camara de combustao, total, por conveccao superficial e por radiacao. Estes resultados sao de extrema importancia para prever a performance de camaras de combustao, assim como auxiliar na sua otimizacao.

Para onde caminha a ciência politica?

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the challenges to Political Sciences at the moment when many authors emphasize the usage of democratic paradigm as the only way to the rational building of speech in pluralist societies. At the end of one century of the consolidation of modern liberal thought, both in right and left versions (Wallerstein, 1995), the democracy as research tradition(Ball, 1987) fades away its ethical meaning, based upon equality and freedom, and lacks room for discussions about rules for implementing it. The analytical method seeks to historically rebuild the different levels of modern state-nation upbringing and the consolidation of competitive party democracy in the 20th century, which is the explanation key for the political organizational phenomenon of globalized societies. The result of this analysis opens new perspectives to Political Sciences advance in discussing the nature of democratic paradigm since it needs to face challenges to survive, such as: the fight against the structural violence of our society; the fight against despotism; and the adjustment to the meaning of the word freedom. The facing of the mentioned challenges may open explanation keys that will lead to a change in Political Sciences ways.

Are Central American export specialization patterns "sticky"?

Includes bibliography

Ensuring quality in qualitative inquiry: Using key concepts as guidelines

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

As torcidas de futebol como organizações diversificadas: um estudo de caso sobre a torcida organizada Gaviões da Fiel

Although they are two distinct fields of social practices, football and carnival are components of national identity. According the academic research tradition, these two phenomenons are studied separately. However, by characteristics of the city of Sao Paulo, these two social practices are performed by the same social actors: the fans of teams in the city, and join organizations of supporters - the cheerleaders - created from these same institutions, schools samba and now also compete in the Carnival of Sao Paulo, as is the case of Torcida Organizada Gaviões da Fiel, used as an object of study for this work. The approach of these cultural events helped define the question that guided the research: the associations of football fans, when observed by an administrative perspective, can be characterized as diverse organizations? From this question, one tries to describe the way a fan club is organized through the division of tasks that takes, as well as explain the type of organizational structure appropriate to accomplish the two goals it is intended for: cheer for the favorite team and be a part of the carnival parade

Tree height integrated into pantropical forest biomass estimates

Aboveground tropical tree biomass and carbon storage estimates commonly ignore tree height (H). We estimate the effect of incorporating H on tropics-wide forest biomass estimates in 327 plots across four continents using 42 656 H and diameter measurements and harvested trees from 20 sites to answer the following questions: 1. What is the best H-model form and geographic unit to include in biomass models to minimise site-level uncertainty in estimates of destructive biomass? 2. To what extent does including H estimates derived in (1) reduce uncertainty in biomass estimates across all 327 plots? 3. What effect does accounting for H have on plot- and continental-scale forest biomass estimates? The mean relative error in biomass estimates of destructively harvested trees when including H (mean 0.06), was half that when excluding H (mean 0.13). Power- and Weibull-H models provided the greatest reduction in uncertainty, with regional Weibull-H models preferred because they reduce uncertainty in smaller-diameter classes (< 40 cm D) that store about one-third of biomass per hectare in most forests. Propagating the relationships from destructively harvested tree biomass to each of the 327 plots from across the tropics shows that including H reduces errors from 41.8 Mg ha(-1) (range 6.6 to 112.4) to 8.0 Mg ha(-1) (-2.5 to 23.0).

Inclusive J/psi production in pp collisions at root s=2.76 TeV

The ALICE Collaboration has measured inclusive J/psi production in pp collisions at a center-of-mass energy root s = 2.76 TeV at the LHC. The results presented in this Letter refer to the rapidity ranges vertical bar y vertical bar < 0.9 and 2.5 < y <4 and have been obtained by measuring the electron and muon pair decay channels, respectively. The integrated luminosities for the two channels are L-int(e) = 1.1 nb(-1) and L-int(mu) = 19.9 nb(-1), and the corresponding signal statistics are N-J/psi(e+e-) = 59 +/- 14 and N-J/psi(mu+mu-) = 1364 +/- 53. We present d sigma(J/psi)/dy for the two rapidity regions under study and, for the forward-y range, d(2)sigma(J/psi)/dydp(t) in the transverse momentum domain 0 < p(t) < 8 GeV/c. The results are compared with previously published results at root s = 7 TeV and with theoretical calculations. (C) 2012 CERN. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.