Long-term price range forecast applied to risk management using regression models

Long-term contractual decisions are the basis of an efficient risk management. However those types of decisions have to be supported with a robust price forecast methodology. This paper reports a different approach for long-term price forecast which tries to give answers to that need. Making use of regression models, the proposed methodology has as main objective to find the maximum and a minimum Market Clearing Price (MCP) for a specific programming period, and with a desired confidence level α. Due to the problem complexity, the meta-heuristic Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) was used to find the best regression parameters and the results compared with the obtained by using a Genetic Algorithm (GA). To validate these models, results from realistic data are presented and discussed in detail.

Synthesis and structural characterization of iron complexes with 2,2,2-tris(1-pyrazolyl)ethanol ligands: Application in the peroxidative oxidation of cyclohexane under mild conditions

The reactions of FeCl2 center dot 2H(2)O and 2,2,2-tris(1-pyrazolyl) ethanol HOCH2C(pz)(3) (1) (pz = pyrazolyl) afford [Fe{HOCH2C(pz)(3)}(2)][FeCl4]Cl (2), [Fe{HOCH2C(pz)(3)}(2)](2)[Fe2OCl6](Cl)(2)center dot 4H(2)O (3 center dot 4H(2)O), [Fe{HOCH2C(pz)(3)}(2)] [FeCl{HOCH2C(pz)(3)}(H2O)(2)](2)(Cl)(4) (4) or [Fe{HOCH2C(pz)(3)}(2)]Cl-2 (5), depending on the experimental conditions. Compounds 1-5 were isolated as air-stable crystalline solids and fully characterized, including (1-4) by single-crystal X-ray diffraction analyses. The latter technique revealed strong intermolecular H-bonds involving the OH group of the scorpionate 2 and 3 giving rise to 1D chains which, in 3, are further expanded to a 2D network with intercalated infinite and almost plane chains of H-interacting water molecules. In 4, intermolecular pi center dot center dot center dot pi interactions involving the pyrazolyl rings are relevant. Complexes 2-5 display a high solubility in water (S-25 degrees C ca. 10-12 mg mL(-1)), a favourable feature towards their application as catalysts (or catalyst precursors) for the peroxidative oxidation of cyclo-hexane to cyclohexanol and cyclohexanone, with aqueous H2O2/MeCN, at room temperature (TON values up to ca. 385). (C) 2011 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

Transmission price simulator in a liberalized electricity market

This paper presents a software tool (SIM_CMTP) that solves congestion situations and evaluates the taxes to be paid to the transmission system by market agents. SIM_CMTP provides users with a set of alternative methods for cost allocation and enables the definition of specific rules, according to each market and/or situation needs. With these characteristics, SIM_CMTP can be used as an operation aid for Transmission System Operator (TSO) or Independent System Operator (ISO). Due to its openness, it can also be used as a decision-making support tool for evaluating different options of market rules in competitive market environment, guarantying the economic sustainability of the transmission system.

Nodal price simulation in competitive electricity markets

Locational Marginal Prices (LMP) are important pricing signals for the participants of competitive electricity markets, as the effects of transmission losses and binding constraints are embedded in LMPs [1],[2]. This paper presents a software tool that evaluates the nodal marginal prices considering losses and congestion. The initial dispatch is based on all the electricity transactions negotiated in the pool and in bilateral contracts. It must be checked if the proposed initial dispatch leads to congestion problems; if a congestion situation is detected, it must be solved. An AC power flow is used to verify if there are congestion situations in the initial dispatch. Whenever congestion situations are detected, they are solved and a feasible dispatch (re-dispatch) is obtained. After solving the congestion problems, the simulator evaluates LMP. The paper presents a case study based on the the 118 IEEE bus test network.

Residential property loans and performance during property price booms: evidence from European banks

Understanding the performance of banks is of the utmost relevance, because of the impact of this sector on economic growth and financial stability. Of all the different assets that make up a bank portfolio, the residential mortgage loans constitute one of its main. Using the dynamic panel data method, we analyse the influence of residential mortgage loans on bank profitability and risk, using a sample of 555 banks in the European Union (EU-15), over the period from 1995 to 2008. We find that banks with larger weights of residential mortgage loans show lower credit risk in good times. This result explains why banks rush to lend on property during booms due to the positive effects it has on credit risk. The results show further that credit risk and profitability are lower during the upturn in the residential property price cycle. The results also reveal the existence of a non-linear relationship (U-shaped marginal effect), as a function of bank’s risk, between profitability and the residential mortgage loans exposure. For those banks that have high credit risk, a large exposure of residential mortgage loans is associated with higher risk-adjusted profitability, through lower risk. For banks with a moderate/low credit risk, the effects of higher residential mortgage loan exposure on its risk-adjusted profitability are also positive or marginally positive.

Residential property loans and performance during property price booms: evidence from European

Understanding the performance of banks is of the u tmost importance due to the impact the sector may have on economic growth and financial stability. Residential mortgage loans constitute a large proportion of the portfolio of many banks and are one of the key assets in the determination of performance. Using a dynamic panel model , we analyse the impact of res idential mortgage loans on bank profitability and risk , based on a sample of 555 banks in the European Union ( EU - 15 ) , over the period from 1995 to 2008. We find that banks with larger weight s in residential mortgage loans display lower credit risk in good market conditions . This result may explain why banks rush to lend on property during b ooms due to the positive effect it has on credit risk . The results also show that credit risk and profitability are lower during the upturn in the residential property cy cle. Furthermore, t he results reveal the existence of a non - linear relationship ( U - shaped marginal effect), as a function of bank’s risk, between profitability and residential mortgage exposure . For those banks that have high er credit risk, a large exposur e to residential loans is associated with increased risk - adjusted profitability, through a reduction in risk. For banks with a moderate to low credit risk, the impact of higher exposure are also positive on risk - adjusted profitability.

Pyrazole or tris(pyrazolyl)ethanol oxo-vanadium(IV) complexes as homogeneous or supported catalysts for oxidation of cyclohexane under mild conditions

The oxovanadium(IV) complexes [VO(acac)(2)(Hpz)].HC(pz)(3) 1.HC(pz)(3) (acac= acetylacetonate, Hpz = pyrazole, pz = pyrazoly1) and [VOCl2{HOCH2C(pz)(3)}] 2 were obtained from reaction of [VO(acac)(2)] with hydrotris(1-pyrazolyl)methane or of VCl(3)with 2,2,2-tris(1-pyrazolyl)ethanol. The compounds were characterized by elemental analysis, IR, Far-IR and EPR spectroscopies, FAB or ESI mass-spectrometry and, for 1, by single crystal X-ray diffraction analysis. 1 and 2 exhibit catalytic activity for the oxidation of cyclohexane to the cyclohexanol and cyclohexanone mixture in homogeneous system (TONS up to 1100) under mild conditions (NCMe, 24h, room temperature) using benzoyl peroxide (BPO), tert-butyl hydroperoxide (TBHP), m-chloroperoxybenzoic acid (mCPBA), hydrogen peroxide or the urea-hydrogen peroxide adduct (UHP) as oxidants. 1 and 2 were also immobilized on a polydimethylsiloxane membrane (1-PDMS or 2-PDMS) and the systems acted as supported catalysts for the cyclohexane oxidation using the above oxidants (TONs up to 620). The best results were obtained with mCPBA or BP0 as oxidant. The effects of various parameters, such as the amount of catalyst, nitric acid, reaction time, type of oxidant and oxidant-to-catalyst molar ratio, were investigated, for both homogeneous and supported systems. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact of a price-maker pumped storage hydro unit on the integration of wind energy in power systems

The increasing integration of larger amounts of wind energy into power systems raises important operational issues, such as the balance between power generation and demand. The pumped storage hydro (PSH) units are one possible solution to mitigate this problem, once they can store the excess of energy in the periods of higher generation and lower demand. However, the behaviour of a PSH unit may differ considerably from the expected in terms of wind power integration when it operates in a liberalized electricity market under a price-maker context. In this regard, this paper models and computes the optimal PSH weekly scheduling in a price-taker and price-maker scenarios, either when the PSH unit operates in standalone and integrated in a portfolio of other generation assets. Results show that the price-maker standalone PSH will integrate less wind power in comparison with the price-taker situation. Moreover, when the PSH unit is integrated in a portfolio with a base load power plant, the role of the price elasticity of demand may completely change the operational profile of the PSH unit. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Strategies for price reduction of HIV medicines under a monopoly situation in Brazil

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To analyze Government strategies for reducing prices of antiretroviral medicines for HIV in Brazil. METHODS Analysis of Ministry of Health purchases of antiretroviral medicines, from 2005 to 2013. Expenditures and costs of the treatment per year were analyzed and compared to international prices of atazanavir. Price reductions were estimated based on the terms of a voluntary license of patent rights and technology transfer in the Partnership for Productive Development Agreement for atazanavir. RESULTS Atazanavir, a patented medicine, represented a significant share of the expenditures on antiretrovirals purchased from the private sector. Prices in Brazil were higher than international references, and no evidence was found of a relationship between purchase volume and price paid by the Ministry of Health. Concerning the latest strategy to reduce prices, involving local production of the 200 mg capsule, the price reduction was greater than the estimated reduction. As for the 300 mg capsule, the amounts paid in the first two years after the Partnership for Productive Development Agreement were close to the estimated values. Prices in nominal values for both dosage forms remained virtually constant between 2011 (the signature of the Partnership for Productive Development Agreement), 2012 and 2013 (after the establishment of the Partnership). CONCLUSIONS Price reduction of medicines is complex in limited-competition environments. The use of a Partnership for Productive Development Agreement as a strategy to increase the capacity of local production and to reduce prices raises issues regarding its effectiveness in reducing prices and to overcome patent barriers. Investments in research and development that can stimulate technological accumulation should be considered by the Government to strengthen its bargaining power to negotiate medicines prices under a monopoly situation.

Maximum-revenue tariff with different roles in a price-setting competition

Published also at Lecture Notes in Engineering and Computer Science

Price forecasting in the day-ahead Iberian electricity market using a conjectural variations Arima model

Price forecast is a matter of concern for all participants in electricity markets, from suppliers to consumers through policy makers, which are interested in the accurate forecast of day-ahead electricity prices either for better decisions making or for an improved evaluation of the effectiveness of market rules and structure. This paper describes a methodology to forecast market prices in an electricity market using an ARIMA model applied to the conjectural variations of the firms acting in an electricity market. This methodology is applied to the Iberian electricity market to forecast market prices in the 24 hours of a working day. The methodology was then compared with two other methodologies, one called naive and the other a direct forecast of market prices using also an ARIMA model. Results show that the conjectural variations price forecast performs better than the naive and that it performs slightly better than the direct price forecast.

Scheduling of a hydro producer considering head-dependency, price scenarios and risk-aversion

In this paper, a mixed-integer quadratic programming approach is proposed for the short-term hydro scheduling problem, considering head-dependency, discontinuous operating regions and discharge ramping constraints. As new contributions to earlier studies, market uncertainty is introduced in the model via price scenarios, and risk aversion is also incorporated by limiting the volatility of the expected profit through the conditional value-at-risk. Our approach has been applied successfully to solve a case Study based on one of the main Portuguese cascaded hydro systems, requiring a negligible computational time.

Desirable role in a price-setting international mixed duopoly

In this paper, we study the order of moves in a mixed international duopoly for differentiated goods, where firms choose whether to set prices sequentially or simultaneously. We discuss the desirable role of the public firm by comparing welfare among three games. We find that, in the three possible roles, the domestic public firm put a lower price, and then produces more than the foreign private firm.

The effect of chronic ingestion of ethanol on modulation of granulomatous inflammation in experimental schistosomiasis in mice

We studied the role of ethanol on the modulation of liver granulomata around Schistosoma mansoni eggs in mice. Albino mice, receiving 7% ethanol as the sole drinking liquid, at 60 and 90 days post-infection, presented smaller granulomata than controls did, when sacrificed at 120 days post-infection. No differences in diameters could be observed, when ethanol was given 4 months before up to 120 days after infection. The results suggested that modulation of schistosome granulomata by ethanol ingestion varies with time and duration of drug consumption.

Effects of hotel characteristics on room rates in Porto: a hedonic price approach

According to the hedonic price method, a price of a good is related with the characteristics or the services it provides. Within this framework, the aim of this study it is to examine the effect on room rates of different characteristics of hotels in and around the city of Porto, such as star category, size, room and service quality, hotel facilities and location. It was estimated a hedonic price function, using data for 51 hotels. The results enable to identify the attributes that are important to consumers and hoteliers and to which extent. This information can be used by hotel managers to define a price strategy and helpful in new investment decisions.