Parameter recovery for a skew-normal IRT model under a Bayesian approach: hierarchical framework, prior and kernel sensitivity and sample size

Item response theory (IRT) comprises a set of statistical models which are useful in many fields, especially when there is an interest in studying latent variables (or latent traits). Usually such latent traits are assumed to be random variables and a convenient distribution is assigned to them. A very common choice for such a distribution has been the standard normal. Recently, Azevedo et al. [Bayesian inference for a skew-normal IRT model under the centred parameterization, Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 55 (2011), pp. 353-365] proposed a skew-normal distribution under the centred parameterization (SNCP) as had been studied in [R. B. Arellano-Valle and A. Azzalini, The centred parametrization for the multivariate skew-normal distribution, J. Multivariate Anal. 99(7) (2008), pp. 1362-1382], to model the latent trait distribution. This approach allows one to represent any asymmetric behaviour concerning the latent trait distribution. Also, they developed a Metropolis-Hastings within the Gibbs sampling (MHWGS) algorithm based on the density of the SNCP. They showed that the algorithm recovers all parameters properly. Their results indicated that, in the presence of asymmetry, the proposed model and the estimation algorithm perform better than the usual model and estimation methods. Our main goal in this paper is to propose another type of MHWGS algorithm based on a stochastic representation (hierarchical structure) of the SNCP studied in [N. Henze, A probabilistic representation of the skew-normal distribution, Scand. J. Statist. 13 (1986), pp. 271-275]. Our algorithm has only one Metropolis-Hastings step, in opposition to the algorithm developed by Azevedo et al., which has two such steps. This not only makes the implementation easier but also reduces the number of proposal densities to be used, which can be a problem in the implementation of MHWGS algorithms, as can be seen in [R.J. Patz and B.W. Junker, A straightforward approach to Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for item response models, J. Educ. Behav. Stat. 24(2) (1999), pp. 146-178; R. J. Patz and B. W. Junker, The applications and extensions of MCMC in IRT: Multiple item types, missing data, and rated responses, J. Educ. Behav. Stat. 24(4) (1999), pp. 342-366; A. Gelman, G.O. Roberts, and W.R. Gilks, Efficient Metropolis jumping rules, Bayesian Stat. 5 (1996), pp. 599-607]. Moreover, we consider a modified beta prior (which generalizes the one considered in [3]) and a Jeffreys prior for the asymmetry parameter. Furthermore, we study the sensitivity of such priors as well as the use of different kernel densities for this parameter. Finally, we assess the impact of the number of examinees, number of items and the asymmetry level on the parameter recovery. Results of the simulation study indicated that our approach performed equally as well as that in [3], in terms of parameter recovery, mainly using the Jeffreys prior. Also, they indicated that the asymmetry level has the highest impact on parameter recovery, even though it is relatively small. A real data analysis is considered jointly with the development of model fitting assessment tools. The results are compared with the ones obtained by Azevedo et al. The results indicate that using the hierarchical approach allows us to implement MCMC algorithms more easily, it facilitates diagnosis of the convergence and also it can be very useful to fit more complex skew IRT models.

Analyzing the dependence structure of microarray data: a copula–based approach

The main aim of this Ph.D. dissertation is the study of clustering dependent data by means of copula functions with particular emphasis on microarray data. Copula functions are a popular multivariate modeling tool in each field where the multivariate dependence is of great interest and their use in clustering has not been still investigated. The first part of this work contains the review of the literature of clustering methods, copula functions and microarray experiments. The attention focuses on the K–means (Hartigan, 1975; Hartigan and Wong, 1979), the hierarchical (Everitt, 1974) and the model–based (Fraley and Raftery, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2007) clustering techniques because their performance is compared. Then, the probabilistic interpretation of the Sklar’s theorem (Sklar’s, 1959), the estimation methods for copulas like the Inference for Margins (Joe and Xu, 1996) and the Archimedean and Elliptical copula families are presented. In the end, applications of clustering methods and copulas to the genetic and microarray experiments are highlighted. The second part contains the original contribution proposed. A simulation study is performed in order to evaluate the performance of the K–means and the hierarchical bottom–up clustering methods in identifying clusters according to the dependence structure of the data generating process. Different simulations are performed by varying different conditions (e.g., the kind of margins (distinct, overlapping and nested) and the value of the dependence parameter ) and the results are evaluated by means of different measures of performance. In light of the simulation results and of the limits of the two investigated clustering methods, a new clustering algorithm based on copula functions (‘CoClust’ in brief) is proposed. The basic idea, the iterative procedure of the CoClust and the description of the written R functions with their output are given. The CoClust algorithm is tested on simulated data (by varying the number of clusters, the copula models, the dependence parameter value and the degree of overlap of margins) and is compared with the performance of model–based clustering by using different measures of performance, like the percentage of well–identified number of clusters and the not rejection percentage of H0 on . It is shown that the CoClust algorithm allows to overcome all observed limits of the other investigated clustering techniques and is able to identify clusters according to the dependence structure of the data independently of the degree of overlap of margins and the strength of the dependence. The CoClust uses a criterion based on the maximized log–likelihood function of the copula and can virtually account for any possible dependence relationship between observations. Many peculiar characteristics are shown for the CoClust, e.g. its capability of identifying the true number of clusters and the fact that it does not require a starting classification. Finally, the CoClust algorithm is applied to the real microarray data of Hedenfalk et al. (2001) both to the gene expressions observed in three different cancer samples and to the columns (tumor samples) of the whole data matrix.

Fitting of Mixtures with Unspecified Number of Components Using Cross Validation Distance Estimate

Estimation of the number of mixture components (k) is an unsolved problem. Available methods for estimation of k include bootstrapping the likelihood ratio test statistics and optimizing a variety of validity functionals such as AIC, BIC/MDL, and ICOMP. We investigate the minimization of distance between fitted mixture model and the true density as a method for estimating k. The distances considered are Kullback-Leibler (KL) and “L sub 2”. We estimate these distances using cross validation. A reliable estimate of k is obtained by voting of B estimates of k corresponding to B cross validation estimates of distance. This estimation methods with KL distance is very similar to Monte Carlo cross validated likelihood methods discussed by Smyth (2000). With focus on univariate normal mixtures, we present simulation studies that compare the cross validated distance method with AIC, BIC/MDL, and ICOMP. We also apply the cross validation estimate of distance approach along with AIC, BIC/MDL and ICOMP approach, to data from an osteoporosis drug trial in order to find groups that differentially respond to treatment.

Automatic Food Intake Assessment Using Camera Phones

Obesity is becoming an epidemic phenomenon in most developed countries. The fundamental cause of obesity and overweight is an energy imbalance between calories consumed and calories expended. It is essential to monitor everyday food intake for obesity prevention and management. Existing dietary assessment methods usually require manually recording and recall of food types and portions. Accuracy of the results largely relies on many uncertain factors such as user's memory, food knowledge, and portion estimations. As a result, the accuracy is often compromised. Accurate and convenient dietary assessment methods are still blank and needed in both population and research societies. In this thesis, an automatic food intake assessment method using cameras, inertial measurement units (IMUs) on smart phones was developed to help people foster a healthy life style. With this method, users use their smart phones before and after a meal to capture images or videos around the meal. The smart phone will recognize food items and calculate the volume of the food consumed and provide the results to users. The technical objective is to explore the feasibility of image based food recognition and image based volume estimation. This thesis comprises five publications that address four specific goals of this work: (1) to develop a prototype system with existing methods to review the literature methods, find their drawbacks and explore the feasibility to develop novel methods; (2) based on the prototype system, to investigate new food classification methods to improve the recognition accuracy to a field application level; (3) to design indexing methods for large-scale image database to facilitate the development of new food image recognition and retrieval algorithms; (4) to develop novel convenient and accurate food volume estimation methods using only smart phones with cameras and IMUs. A prototype system was implemented to review existing methods. Image feature detector and descriptor were developed and a nearest neighbor classifier were implemented to classify food items. A reedit card marker method was introduced for metric scale 3D reconstruction and volume calculation. To increase recognition accuracy, novel multi-view food recognition algorithms were developed to recognize regular shape food items. To further increase the accuracy and make the algorithm applicable to arbitrary food items, new food features, new classifiers were designed. The efficiency of the algorithm was increased by means of developing novel image indexing method in large-scale image database. Finally, the volume calculation was enhanced through reducing the marker and introducing IMUs. Sensor fusion technique to combine measurements from cameras and IMUs were explored to infer the metric scale of the 3D model as well as reduce noises from these sensors.

Cost-benefit analysis: The ``gold standard'' re-examined

The dissertation reviews the recommendations of the Panel on Cost Effectiveness in Health and Medicine (Panel) convened by the US Public Health Service in 1993 in four areas: aggregation of costs and benefits, methods of estimating resources used, definition of population impacted and perspective used in cost benefit analysis. Financial data from a clinical trial was used to test whether different approaches in each of the above four areas would change the net benefit resulting from a cost benefit analysis. Differences in aggregation of cost and benefit resulted in the same net benefit, but not the same cost/benefit ratios. Differences in resource use estimation methods, population subgroups definitions and perspectives all produced different net benefits. Difference in perspective resulted in different and often opposing decisions as to whether the proposed intervention from the clinical trial should be implemented. ^

Global Estimates of the Prevalence and Incidence of Four Curable Sexually Transmitted Infections in 2012 Based on Systematic Review and Global Reporting.

BACKGROUND Quantifying sexually transmitted infection (STI) prevalence and incidence is important for planning interventions and advocating for resources. The World Health Organization (WHO) periodically estimates global and regional prevalence and incidence of four curable STIs: chlamydia, gonorrhoea, trichomoniasis and syphilis. METHODS AND FINDINGS WHO's 2012 estimates were based upon literature reviews of prevalence data from 2005 through 2012 among general populations for genitourinary infection with chlamydia, gonorrhoea, and trichomoniasis, and nationally reported data on syphilis seroprevalence among antenatal care attendees. Data were standardized for laboratory test type, geography, age, and high risk subpopulations, and combined using a Bayesian meta-analytic approach. Regional incidence estimates were generated from prevalence estimates by adjusting for average duration of infection. In 2012, among women aged 15-49 years, the estimated global prevalence of chlamydia was 4.2% (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 3.7-4.7%), gonorrhoea 0.8% (0.6-1.0%), trichomoniasis 5.0% (4.0-6.4%), and syphilis 0.5% (0.4-0.6%); among men, estimated chlamydia prevalence was 2.7% (2.0-3.6%), gonorrhoea 0.6% (0.4-0.9%), trichomoniasis 0.6% (0.4-0.8%), and syphilis 0.48% (0.3-0.7%). These figures correspond to an estimated 131 million new cases of chlamydia (100-166 million), 78 million of gonorrhoea (53-110 million), 143 million of trichomoniasis (98-202 million), and 6 million of syphilis (4-8 million). Prevalence and incidence estimates varied by region and sex. CONCLUSIONS Estimates of the global prevalence and incidence of chlamydia, gonorrhoea, trichomoniasis, and syphilis in adult women and men remain high, with nearly one million new infections with curable STI each day. The estimates highlight the urgent need for the public health community to ensure that well-recognized effective interventions for STI prevention, screening, diagnosis, and treatment are made more widely available. Improved estimation methods are needed to allow use of more varied data and generation of estimates at the national level.

Outcome-based adaptive randomization for binary data in clinical trials---Compare and contrast

Monte Carlo simulation has been conducted to investigate parameter estimation and hypothesis testing in some well known adaptive randomization procedures. The four urn models studied are Randomized Play-the-Winner (RPW), Randomized Pôlya Urn (RPU), Birth and Death Urn with Immigration (BDUI), and Drop-the-Loses Urn (DL). Two sequential estimation methods, the sequential maximum likelihood estimation (SMLE) and the doubly adaptive biased coin design (DABC), are simulated at three optimal allocation targets that minimize the expected number of failures under the assumption of constant variance of simple difference (RSIHR), relative risk (ORR), and odds ratio (OOR) respectively. Log likelihood ratio test and three Wald-type tests (simple difference, log of relative risk, log of odds ratio) are compared in different adaptive procedures. ^ Simulation results indicates that although RPW is slightly better in assigning more patients to the superior treatment, the DL method is considerably less variable and the test statistics have better normality. When compared with SMLE, DABC has slightly higher overall response rate with lower variance, but has larger bias and variance in parameter estimation. Additionally, the test statistics in SMLE have better normality and lower type I error rate, and the power of hypothesis testing is more comparable with the equal randomization. Usually, RSIHR has the highest power among the 3 optimal allocation ratios. However, the ORR allocation has better power and lower type I error rate when the log of relative risk is the test statistics. The number of expected failures in ORR is smaller than RSIHR. It is also shown that the simple difference of response rates has the worst normality among all 4 test statistics. The power of hypothesis test is always inflated when simple difference is used. On the other hand, the normality of the log likelihood ratio test statistics is robust against the change of adaptive randomization procedures. ^

Edad dentaria : adecuación regional de los métodos de Nolla y Demirjian

El presente trabajo aborda los métodos de estimación de las edades dentarias en una población representativa de la región de Cuyo en la República Argentina. Si bien los métodos desarrollados para medir el desarrollo dentario constituyen herramientas de gran utilidad, éstos han sido formulados en conjuntos poblacionales muy acotados. Por ello, el objetivo general de este trabajo ha sido aplicar los métodos tradicionales de medición, obtener datos referenciales de la edad dentaria y evaluar el error de estimación de estos métodos para medir la edad dentaría en la población en estudio. Se calcularon las edades dentarias por los métodos de Nolla y Demirjian sobre 374 estudios panorámicos de niños y adolescentes entre 5 y 17 años, previa estratificación nutricional de la población en estudio y se compararon con edades cronológicas decimales. Los datos obtenidos fueron sometidos a prueba estadística ANOVA y prueba de correlación de Pearson mediante paquete estadístico Graphpad Prism 5. Los resultados obtenidos presentaron correlación adecuada r = 0,92; p < 0,0001, sin embargo revelaron diferencias estadísticamente significativas entre la edad cronológica y las edades dentarias calculadas Test ANOVA p < 0,0001, lo que expresó la limitación diagnóstica de los métodos estudiados al aplicarlos en esta población. El método de Nolla produjo una subestimación, lo que reflejó que nuestra población estuvo atrasada entre 4 y 6 meses respecto a la muestra estudiada para el método. En cambio, el método de Demirjian arrojó una sobrestimación, lo que indicó que nuestra población estuvo adelantada respecto de la muestra estudiada para la realización del método. Estas correcciones calculadas permiten realizar la correcta estimación de la edad dentaria al ser aplicadas a la población de nuestra región.

Do international flights promote FDI? : the role of face-to-face communication

Air transportation facilitates face-to-face interactions across borders for the spatial expansion of manufacturing production. I investigate the impact of international flights on FDI entry by Japanese firms. I find that FDI entry significantly increases with the weekly frequency of flights from Japan, and the positive impact increases with a proxy for an intensity of face-to-face communication between the parent firm and foreign affiliate. The results are robust to estimation methods, additional control variables, and definitions of face-to-face communication. Thus, the results suggest that flights encourage FDI entry through a reduction in face-to-face communication costs.

Contribución a la caracterización espacial de canales con sistemas MIMO-OFDM en la banda de 2,45 Ghz

La tecnología de múltiples antenas ha evolucionado para dar soporte a los actuales y futuros sistemas de comunicaciones inalámbricas en su afán por proporcionar la calidad de señal y las altas tasas de transmisión que demandan los nuevos servicios de voz, datos y multimedia. Sin embargo, es fundamental comprender las características espaciales del canal radio, ya que son las características del propio canal lo que limita en gran medida las prestaciones de los sistemas de comunicación actuales. Por ello surge la necesidad de estudiar la estructura espacial del canal de propagación para poder diseñar, evaluar e implementar de forma más eficiente tecnologías multiantena en los actuales y futuros sistemas de comunicación inalámbrica. Las tecnologías multiantena denominadas antenas inteligentes y MIMO han generado un gran interés en el área de comunicaciones inalámbricas, por ejemplo los sistemas de telefonía celular o más recientemente en las redes WLAN (Wireless Local Area Network), principalmente por la mejora que proporcionan en la calidad de las señales y en la tasa de transmisión de datos, respectivamente. Las ventajas de estas tecnologías se fundamentan en el uso de la dimensión espacial para obtener ganancia por diversidad espacial, como ya sucediera con las tecnologías FDMA (Frequency Division Multiplexing Access), TDMA (Time Division Multiplexing Access) y CDMA (Code Division Multiplexing Access) para obtener diversidad en las dimensiones de frecuencia, tiempo y código, respectivamente. Esta Tesis se centra en estudiar las características espaciales del canal con sistemas de múltiples antenas mediante la estimación de los perfiles de ángulos de llegada (DoA, Direction-of- Arrival) considerando esquemas de diversidad en espacio, polarización y frecuencia. Como primer paso se realiza una revisión de los sistemas con antenas inteligentes y los sistemas MIMO, describiendo con detalle la base matemática que sustenta las prestaciones ofrecidas por estos sistemas. Posteriormente se aportan distintos estudios sobre la estimación de los perfiles de DoA de canales radio con sistemas multiantena evaluando distintos aspectos de antenas, algoritmos de estimación, esquemas de polarización, campo lejano y campo cercano de las fuentes. Así mismo, se presenta un prototipo de medida MIMO-OFDM-SPAA3D en la banda ISM (Industrial, Scientific and Medical) de 2,45 Ghz, el cual está preparado para caracterizar experimentalmente el rendimiento de los sistemas MIMO, y para caracterizar espacialmente canales de propagación, considerando los esquemas de diversidad espacial, por polarización y frecuencia. Los estudios aportados se describen a continuación. Los sistemas de antenas inteligentes dependen en gran medida de la posición de los usuarios. Estos sistemas están equipados con arrays de antenas, los cuales aportan la diversidad espacial necesaria para obtener una representación espacial fidedigna del canal radio a través de los perfiles de DoA (DoA, Direction-of-Arrival) y por tanto, la posición de las fuentes de señal. Sin embargo, los errores de fabricación de arrays así como ciertos parámetros de señal conlleva un efecto negativo en las prestaciones de estos sistemas. Por ello se plantea un modelo de señal parametrizado que permite estudiar la influencia que tienen estos factores sobre los errores de estimación de DoA, tanto en acimut como en elevación, utilizando los algoritmos de estimación de DOA más conocidos en la literatura. A partir de las curvas de error, se pueden obtener parámetros de diseño para sistemas de localización basados en arrays. En un segundo estudio se evalúan esquemas de diversidad por polarización con los sistemas multiantena para mejorar la estimación de los perfiles de DoA en canales que presentan pérdidas por despolarización. Para ello se desarrolla un modelo de señal en array con sensibilidad de polarización que toma en cuenta el campo electromagnético de ondas planas. Se realizan simulaciones MC del modelo para estudiar el efecto de la orientación de la polarización como el número de polarizaciones usadas en el transmisor como en el receptor sobre la precisión en la estimación de los perfiles de DoA observados en el receptor. Además, se presentan los perfiles DoA obtenidos en escenarios quasiestáticos de interior con un prototipo de medida MIMO 4x4 de banda estrecha en la banda de 2,45 GHz, los cuales muestran gran fidelidad con el escenario real. Para la obtención de los perfiles DoA se propone un método basado en arrays virtuales, validado con los datos de simulación y los datos experimentales. Con relación a la localización 3D de fuentes en campo cercano (zona de Fresnel), se presenta un tercer estudio para obtener con gran exactitud la estructura espacial del canal de propagación en entornos de interior controlados (en cámara anecóica) utilizando arrays virtuales. El estudio analiza la influencia del tamaño del array y el diagrama de radiación en la estimación de los parámetros de localización proponiendo, para ello, un modelo de señal basado en un vector de enfoque de onda esférico (SWSV). Al aumentar el número de antenas del array se consigue reducir el error RMS de estimación y mejorar sustancialmente la representación espacial del canal. La estimación de los parámetros de localización se lleva a cabo con un nuevo método de búsqueda multinivel adaptativo, propuesto con el fin de reducir drásticamente el tiempo de procesado que demandan otros algoritmos multivariable basados en subespacios, como el MUSIC, a costa de incrementar los requisitos de memoria. Las simulaciones del modelo arrojan resultados que son validados con resultados experimentales y comparados con el límite de Cramer Rao en términos del error cuadrático medio. La compensación del diagrama de radiación acerca sustancialmente la exactitud de estimación de la distancia al límite de Cramer Rao. Finalmente, es igual de importante la evaluación teórica como experimental de las prestaciones de los sistemas MIMO-OFDM. Por ello, se presenta el diseño e implementación de un prototipo de medida MIMO-OFDM-SPAA3D autocalibrado con sistema de posicionamiento de antena automático en la banda de 2,45 Ghz con capacidad para evaluar la capacidad de los sistemas MIMO. Además, tiene la capacidad de caracterizar espacialmente canales MIMO, incorporando para ello una etapa de autocalibración para medir la respuesta en frecuencia de los transmisores y receptores de RF, y así poder caracterizar la respuesta de fase del canal con mayor precisión. Este sistema incorpora un posicionador de antena automático 3D (SPAA3D) basado en un scanner con 3 brazos mecánicos sobre los que se desplaza un posicionador de antena de forma independiente, controlado desde un PC. Este posicionador permite obtener una gran cantidad de mediciones del canal en regiones locales, lo cual favorece la caracterización estadística de los parámetros del sistema MIMO. Con este prototipo se realizan varias campañas de medida para evaluar el canal MIMO en términos de capacidad comparando 2 esquemas de polarización y tomando en cuenta la diversidad en frecuencia aportada por la modulación OFDM en distintos escenarios. ABSTRACT Multiple-antennas technologies have been evolved to be the support of the actual and future wireless communication systems in its way to provide the high quality and high data rates required by new data, voice and data services. However, it is important to understand the behavior of the spatial characteristics of the radio channel, since the channel by itself limits the performance of the actual wireless communications systems. This drawback raises the need to understand the spatial structure of the propagation channel in order to design, assess, and develop more efficient multiantenna technologies for the actual and future wireless communications systems. Multiantenna technologies such as ‘Smart Antennas’ and MIMO systems have generated great interest in the field of wireless communications, i.e. cellular communications systems and more recently WLAN (Wireless Local Area Networks), mainly because the higher quality and the high data rate they are able to provide. Their technological benefits are based on the exploitation of the spatial diversity provided by the use of multiple antennas as happened in the past with some multiaccess technologies such as FDMA (Frequency Division Multiplexing Access), TDMA (Time Division Multiplexing Access), and CDMA (Code Division Multiplexing Access), which give diversity in the domains of frequency, time and code, respectively. This Thesis is mainly focus to study the spatial channel characteristics using schemes of multiple antennas considering several diversity schemes such as space, polarization, and frequency. The spatial characteristics will be study in terms of the direction-of-arrival profiles viewed at the receiver side of the radio link. The first step is to do a review of the smart antennas and MIMO systems technologies highlighting their advantages and drawbacks from a mathematical point of view. In the second step, a set of studies concerning the spatial characterization of the radio channel through the DoA profiles are addressed. The performance of several DoA estimation methods is assessed considering several aspects regarding antenna array structure, polarization diversity, and far-field and near-field conditions. Most of the results of these studies come from simulations of data models and measurements with real multiantena prototypes. In the same way, having understand the importance of validate the theoretical data models with experimental results, a 2,4 GHz MIMO-OFDM-SPAA2D prototype is presented. This prototype is intended for evaluating MIMO-OFDM capacity in indoor and outdoor scenarios, characterize the spatial structure of radio channels, assess several diversity schemes such as polarization, space, and frequency diversity, among others aspects. The studies reported are briefly described below. As is stated in Chapter two, the determination of user position is a fundamental task to be resolved for the smart antenna systems. As these systems are equipped with antenna arrays, they can provide the enough spatial diversity to accurately draw the spatial characterization of the radio channel through the DoA profiles, and therefore the source location. However, certain real implementation factors related to antenna errors, signals, and receivers will certainly reduce the performance of such direction finding systems. In that sense, a parameterized narrowband signal model is proposed to evaluate the influence of these factors in the location parameter estimation through extensive MC simulations. The results obtained from several DoA algorithms may be useful to extract some parameter design for directing finding systems based on arrays. The second study goes through the importance that polarization schemes can have for estimating far-field DoA profiles in radio channels, particularly for scenarios that may introduce polarization losses. For this purpose, a narrowband signal model with polarization sensibility is developed to conduct an analysis of several polarization schemes at transmitter (TX) and receiver (RX) through extensive MC simulations. In addition, spatial characterization of quasistatic indoor scenarios is also carried out using a 2.45 GHz MIMO prototype equipped with single and dual-polarized antennas. A good agreement between the measured DoA profiles with the propagation scenario is achieved. The theoretical and experimental evaluation of polarization schemes is performed using virtual arrays. In that case, a DoA estimation method is proposed based on adding an phase reference to properly track the DoA, which shows good results. In the third study, the special case of near-field source localization with virtual arrays is addressed. Most of DoA estimation algorithms are focused in far-field source localization where the radiated wavefronts are assume to be planar waves at the receive array. However, when source are located close to the array, the assumption of plane waves is no longer valid as the wavefronts exhibit a spherical behavior along the array. Thus, a faster and effective method of azimuth, elevation angles-of-arrival, and range estimation for near-field sources is proposed. The efficacy of the proposed method is evaluated with simulation and validated with measurements collected from a measurement campaign carried out in a controlled propagation environment, i.e. anechoic chamber. Moreover, the performance of the method is assessed in terms of the RMSE for several array sizes, several source positions, and taking into account the effect of radiation pattern. In general, better results are obtained with larger array and larger source distances. The effect of the antennas is included in the data model leading to more accurate results, particularly for range rather than for angle estimation. Moreover, a new multivariable searching method based on the MUSIC algorithm, called MUSA (multilevel MUSIC-based algorithm), is presented. This method is proposed to estimate the 3D location parameters in a faster way than other multivariable algorithms, such as MUSIC algorithm, at the cost of increasing the memory size. Finally, in the last chapter, a MIMO-OFDM-SPAA3D prototype is presented to experimentally evaluate different MIMO schemes regarding antennas, polarization, and frequency in different indoor and outdoor scenarios. The prototype has been developed on a Software-Defined Radio (SDR) platform. It allows taking measurements where future wireless systems will be developed. The novelty of this prototype is concerning the following 2 subsystems. The first one is the tridimensional (3D) antenna positioning system (SPAA3D) based on three linear scanners which is developed for making automatic testing possible reducing errors of the antenna array positioning. A set of software has been developed for research works such as MIMO channel characterization, MIMO capacity, OFDM synchronization, and so on. The second subsystem is the RF autocalibration module at the TX and RX. This subsystem allows to properly tracking the spatial structure of indoor and outdoor channels in terms of DoA profiles. Some results are draw regarding performance of MIMO-OFDM systems with different polarization schemes and different propagation environments.

Respuestas anatómico fisiológicas frente a estrés hídrico en plantaciones de especies de crecimiento rápido para la producción de biomasa

El objetivo general de la presente Tesis es identificar algunas de las características anatómico-fisiológicas que confieren la capacidad de alcanzar una mejor productividad bajo clima mediterráneo a plantas de diversos genotipos de los géneros Populus y Eucalyptus, caracterizados por su carácter pionero, elevado crecimiento y vulnerabilidad a la cavitación. En los dos primeros capítulos se hace un seguimiento de la conductancia estomática a una selección de clones de eucalipto cultivados en invernadero, sometidos a diferentes dotaciones hídricas. Se realizaron además mediciones periódicas del pH de la savia del tallo y de la pérdida de conductividad hidráulica para investigar su implicación en la regulación química e hidraúlica del cierre estomático. Las variaciones en el pH de la savia obtenidas parecen responder a cambios en el déficit de presión de vapor de agua atmosférico y no a diferencias en la disponibilidad de agua en el suelo. La conductancia estomática presentó una correlación positiva significativa con el pH de la savia, pero no con la conductividad hidráulica. La variabilidad de la conductividad hidráulica máxima se discute a la luz de recientes investigaciones sobre los materiales constituyentes de las membranas de las punteaduras. Los clones que mostraron mayores conductancias hidráulicas y estomáticas presentaron valores más altos de producción y supervivencia, poniendo de manifiesto la utilidad del estudio de estas variables. Por el contrario, los valores más bajos de conductancia estomática e hidraúlica se encontraron en clones que han resultado un fracaso en plantaciones comerciales, en particular, fue destacable el mal resultado de un clon procedente de autocruzamiento respecto de otros híbridos. En el tercer capítulo de la tesis se estudian características anatómicas y funcionales del xilema relacionadas con la eficiencia en el transporte de agua a las hojas, y que pueden afectar directa o indirectamente a la transpiración y al crecimiento. Los estudios anatómicos fueron realizados sobre brotes anuales de chopo en una plantación situada en Granada, en condiciones de riego limitante. La combinación de rasgos anatómicos más favorable de cara a la producción de biomasa fue una densidad alta de vasos de diámetro intermedio. Los clones más productivos figuraron entre los más resistentes a la cavitación. Para estudiar el crecimiento de masas arboladas se utilizan frecuentemente parámetros fisiológicos como el índice de area foliar (LAI). La estimación del LAI a partir de fotografías hemisféricas aplicada a tallares de chopo plantados a alta densidad y a turno corto para biomasa se lleva a cabo mediante una metodología reciente empleada y discutida en el cuarto capítulo de la Tesis. Los resultados muestran que las diferencias de producción existentes entre genotipos, localidades de medición con diferentes dosis de riego, y años, pueden predecirse a partir de la determinación del índice de área foliar tanto por métodos directos como indirectos de estimación. Tanto los estudios realizados en eucalipto como en chopo han mostrado que los genotipos con menores producciones de biomasa en campo alcanzaron los menores valores de conductancia estomática en las condiciones más favorables así como el menor número de vasos en el xilema. La estrecha relación entre crecimiento y LAI confirma una vez más la importancia del desarrollo de la copa para sostener un buen crecimiento. El mayor desarrollo de la copa y rendimiento en biomasa se midieron en uno de los clones con un número de vasos más elevado, y menor vulnerabilidad a la cavitación en condiciones de estrés. Estos resultados ponen de manifiesto la importancia de las características anatómicas y funcionales del xilema como condicionantes del patrón de crecimiento de las plantas y el comportamiento de los estomas. ABSTRACT A number of anatomical xylem traits and physiological variables were analyzed in genotypes of both the Populus and Eucalyptus genera with the main aim of identifying traits in the genotypes which confer the ability to produce an acceptable biomass yield under Mediterranean climatic conditions. In the first two chapters of this PhD, the results of two experiments carried out on several clones of the species Eucalyptus globulus Labill. are presented. Chapters three and four include the results of another two trials on four poplar hybrid genotypes. One of the initial plant responses to water stress is stomatal closure, which can be triggered by hydraulic and/or chemical signals. The two first chapters of this PhD deal with trials in which stomatal conductance and percentage loss of hydraulic conductivity were monitored on a set of eucalyptus clones supplied by ENCE (former National Cellulose Company) and currently used in the company’s own commercial plantings. The experimental trials were carried out in greenhouses and the plants were submitted to two different watering regimes. The pH of the stem sap was periodically measured as the greenhouse temperature and humidity changed. The aim of these measurements was to investigate the role of both sap pH and percentage loss of hydraulic conductivity on stomatal regulation. The results obtained suggest that changes in sap pH are a response to vapor pressure deficit changes rather than to differences in soil water availability. We found significant correlation between stomatal conductance and sap pH, although no significant relationship was found between stomatal conductance and hydraulic conductivity. Variability in maximum hydraulic conductivity is discussed based on recent pit membrane constituent research. The study of hydraulic conductivity proved helpful in order to detect the clones with both higher growth and greater chance of survival, since clones displaying the lowest hydraulic conductivities were those that failed in commercial plantings. Anatomical xylem traits define the water transport efficiency to leaves and can therefore limit transpiration and growth. The third chapter of this PhD addresses anatomical xylem traits in poplar. One year old stem samples were taken from a water-stressed trial in Granada. The anatomical xylem study proved useful for detecting the lowest yielding genotypes. Clones with intermediate vessel size and high vessel densities were found to be those with the highest biomass yield. Differences in cavitation resistance depending on the clone tested and the water treatment applied were also found. The clones with the highest biomass yield were found to be among the most cavitation resistant clones in each watering regime. Xylem and physiological traits along with stomatal behavior are useful tools to determine plant growth. In order to study plantings or forests, it is more common to employ other physiological variables such as leaf area index (LAI). LAI estimation from hemispherical photographs applied to short rotation woody crops is a recently developed method that still requires fine tuning through further investigation. In the fourth chapter, data from LAI monitoring over two consecutive years were analyzed in two different locations where different irrigation treatments were applied. The results showed that differences in yield between genotypes, different irrigation regimes and years could be predicted by using the LAI estimates, either through direct or indirect estimation methods. Our studies of poplar and eucalyptus have shown that the field-grown genotypes with the lowest biomass yield displayed the lowest values of stomatal conductance under the most favorable environmental conditions and also had a low number of xylem conduits. The close relationship between LAI and growth highlights the importance of crown development in biomass growth. The highest LAI and biomass yield were recorded in one of the clones with higher vessel density and the lowest vulnerability to cavitation under stress conditions. These results underline the importance of research into anatomical and functional traits as factors influencing plant growth patterns and stomatal behavior.

Did quantitative easing affect interest rates outside the US? New evidence based on interest rate differentials. CEPS Working Document No. 416/January 2016

This paper explores the effects of non-standard monetary policies on international yield relationships. Based on a descriptive analysis of international long-term yields, we find evidence that long-term rates followed a global downward trend prior to as well as during the financial crisis. Comparing interest rate developments in the US and the eurozone, it is difficult to detect a distinct impact of the first round of the Fed’s quantitative easing programme (QE1) on US interest rates for which the global environment – the global downward trend in interest rates – does not account. Motivated by these findings, we analyse the impact of the Fed’s QE1 programme on the stability of the US-euro long-term interest rate relationship by using a CVAR (cointegrated vector autoregressive) model and, in particular, recursive estimation methods. Using data gathered between 2002 and 2014, we find limited evidence that QE1 caused the break-up or destabilised the transatlantic interest rate relationship. Taking global interest rate developments into account, we thus find no significant evidence that QE had any independent, distinct impact on US interest rates.

Disentangling the impact of seroconversion age and set-point viral load on ART-free HIV survival

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Population monitoring for kangaroo management

In wildlife management, the program of monitoring will depend on the management objective. If the objective is damage mitigation, then ideally it is damage that should be monitored. Alternatively, population size (N) can be used as a surrogate for damage, but the relationship between N and damage obviously needs to be known. If the management objective is a sustainable harvest, then the system of monitoring will depend on the harvesting strategy. In general, the harvest strategy in all states has been to offer a quota that is a constant proportion of population size. This strategy has a number of advantages over alternative strategies, including a low risk of over- or underharvest in a stochastic environment, simplicity, robustness to bias in population estimates and allowing harvest policy to be proactive rather than reactive. However, the strategy requires an estimate of absolute population size that needs to be made regularly for a fluctuating population. Trends in population size and in various harvest statistics, while of interest, are secondary. This explains the large research effort in further developing accurate estimation methods for kangaroo populations. Direct monitoring on a large scale is costly. Aerial surveys are conducted annually at best, and precision of population estimates declines with the area over which estimates are made. Management at a fine scale (temporal or spatial) therefore requires other monitoring tools. Indirect monitoring through harvest statistics and habitat models, that include rainfall or a greenness index from satellite imagery, may prove useful.

A framework for progressively improving small area population estimates

The paper presents a framework for small area population estimation that enables users to select a method that is fit for the purpose. The adjustments to input data that are needed before use are outlined, with emphasis on developing consistent time series of inputs. We show how geographical harmonization of small areas, which is crucial to comparisons over time, can be achieved. For two study regions, the East of England and Yorkshire and the Humber, the differences in output and consequences of adopting different methods are illustrated. The paper concludes with a discussion of how data, on stream since 1998, might be included in future small area estimates.