The three phases of the ensemble forecasting of niche models: geographic range and shifts in climatically suitable areas of Utetheisa ornatrix (Lepidoptera, Arctiidae)

Species' geographic ranges are usually considered as basic units in macroecology and biogeography, yet it is still difficult to measure them accurately for many reasons. About 20 years ago, researchers started using local data on species' occurrences to estimate broad scale ranges, thereby establishing the niche modeling approach. However, there are still many problems in model evaluation and application, and one of the solutions is to find a consensus solution among models derived from different mathematical and statistical models for niche modeling, climatic projections and variable combination, all of which are sources of uncertainty during niche modeling. In this paper, we discuss this approach of ensemble forecasting and propose that it can be divided into three phases with increasing levels of complexity. Phase I is the simple combination of maps to achieve a consensual and hopefully conservative solution. In Phase II, differences among the maps used are described by multivariate analyses, and Phase III consists of the quantitative evaluation of the relative magnitude of uncertainties from different sources and their mapping. To illustrate these developments, we analyzed the occurrence data of the tiger moth, Utetheisa ornatrix (Lepidoptera, Arctiidae), a Neotropical moth species, and modeled its geographic range in current and future climates.

GPS analysis of human locomotion: further evidence for long-range correlations in stride-to-stride fluctuations of gait parameters.

During free walking, gait is automatically adjusted to provide optimal mechanical output and minimal energy expenditure; gait parameters, such as cadence, fluctuate from one stride to the next around average values. It was described that this fluctuation exhibited long-range correlations and fractal-like patterns. In addition, it was suggested that these long-range correlations disappeared if the participant followed the beep of metronome to regulate his or her pace. Until now, these fractal fluctuations were only observed for stride interval, because no technique existed to adequately analyze an extended time of free walking. The aim of the present study was to measure walking speed (WS), step frequency (SF) and step length (SL) with high accuracy (<1 cm) satellite positioning method (global positioning system or GPS) in order to detect long-range correlations in the stride-to-stride fluctuations. Eight participants walked 30 min under free and constrained (metronome) conditions. Under free walking conditions, DFA (detrended fluctuation analysis) and surrogate data tests showed that the fluctuation of WS, SL and SF exhibited a fractal pattern (i.e., scaling exponent alpha: 0.5 < alpha < 1) in a large majority of participants (7/8). Under constrained conditions (metronome), SF fluctuations became significantly anti-correlated (alpha < 0.5) in all participants. However, the scaling exponent of SL and WS was not modified. We conclude that, when the walking pace is controlled by an auditory signal, the feedback loop between the planned movement (at supraspinal level) and the sensory inputs induces a continual shifting of SF around the mean (persistent anti-correlation), but with no effect on the fluctuation dynamics of the other parameters (SL, WS).

Influence of learning on range expansion and adaptation to novel habitats.

Learning has been postulated to 'drive' evolution, but its influence on adaptive evolution in heterogeneous environments has not been formally examined. We used a spatially explicit individual-based model to study the effect of learning on the expansion and adaptation of a species to a novel habitat. Fitness was mediated by a behavioural trait (resource preference), which in turn was determined by both the genotype and learning. Our findings indicate that learning substantially increases the range of parameters under which the species expands and adapts to the novel habitat, particularly if the two habitats are separated by a sharp ecotone (rather than a gradient). However, for a broad range of parameters, learning reduces the degree of genetically-based local adaptation following the expansion and facilitates maintenance of genetic variation within local populations. Thus, in heterogeneous environments learning may facilitate evolutionary range expansions and maintenance of the potential of local populations to respond to subsequent environmental changes.

Long-range transport of Saharan dust to northern Europe: The 11-16 October 2001 outbreak observed with EARLINET

The spread of mineral particles over southwestern, western, and central Europeresulting from a strong Saharan dust outbreak in October 2001 was observed at10 stations of the European Aerosol Research Lidar Network (EARLINET). For the firsttime, an optically dense desert dust plume over Europe was characterized coherentlywith high vertical resolution on a continental scale. The main layer was located abovethe boundary layer (above 1-km height above sea level (asl)) up to 3–5-km height, andtraces of dust particles reached heights of 7–8 km. The particle optical depth typicallyranged from 0.1 to 0.5 above 1-km height asl at the wavelength of 532 nm, andmaximum values close to 0.8 were found over northern Germany. The lidar observationsare in qualitative agreement with values of optical depth derived from Total OzoneMapping Spectrometer (TOMS) data. Ten-day backward trajectories clearly indicated theSahara as the source region of the particles and revealed that the dust layer observed,e.g., over Belsk, Poland, crossed the EARLINET site Aberystwyth, UK, and southernScandinavia 24–48 hours before. Lidar-derived particle depolarization ratios,backscatter- and extinction-related A ° ngstro¨m exponents, and extinction-to-backscatterratios mainly ranged from 15 to 25%, 0.5 to 0.5, and 40–80 sr, respectively, within thelofted dust plumes. A few atmospheric model calculations are presented showing the dustconcentration over Europe. The simulations were found to be consistent with thenetwork observations.

Steady-state equilibrium phase inversion recovery ON-resonant water suppression (IRON) MR angiography in conjunction with superparamagnetic nanoparticles. A robust technique for imaging within a wide range of contrast agent dosages.

PURPOSE: To investigate the ability of inversion recovery ON-resonant water suppression (IRON) in conjunction with P904 (superparamagnetic nanoparticles which consisting of a maghemite core coated with a low-molecular-weight amino-alcohol derivative of glucose) to perform steady-state equilibrium phase MR angiography (MRA) over a wide dose range. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Experiments were approved by the institutional animal care committee. Rabbits (n = 12) were imaged at baseline and serially after the administration of 10 incremental dosages of 0.57-5.7 mgFe/Kg P904. Conventional T1-weighted and IRON MRA were obtained on a clinical 1.5 Tesla (T) scanner to image the thoracic and abdominal aorta, and peripheral vessels. Contrast-to-noise ratios (CNR) and vessel sharpness were quantified. RESULTS: Using IRON MRA, CNR and vessel sharpness progressively increased with incremental dosages of the contrast agent P904, exhibiting constantly higher contrast values than T1 -weighted MRA over a very wide range of contrast agent doses (CNR of 18.8 ± 5.6 for IRON versus 11.1 ± 2.8 for T1 -weighted MRA at 1.71 mgFe/kg, P = 0.02 and 19.8 ± 5.9 for IRON versus -0.8 ± 1.4 for T1-weighted MRA at 3.99 mgFe/kg, P = 0.0002). Similar results were obtained for vessel sharpness in peripheral vessels, (Vessel sharpness of 46.76 ± 6.48% for IRON versus 33.20 ± 3.53% for T1-weighted MRA at 1.71 mgFe/Kg, P = 0.002, and of 48.66 ± 5.50% for IRON versus 19.00 ± 7.41% for T1-weighted MRA at 3.99 mgFe/Kg, P = 0.003). CONCLUSION: Our study suggests that quantitative CNR and vessel sharpness after the injection of P904 are consistently higher for IRON MRA when compared with conventional T1-weighted MRA. These findings apply for a wide range of contrast agent dosages.

Reduction in range of cervical motion on serial long-term follow-up in patients undergoing oblique corpectomy for cervical spondylotic myelopathy.

PURPOSE: To determine whether motion preservation following oblique cervical corpectomy (OCC) for cervical spondylotic myelopathy (CSM) persists with serial follow-up. METHODS: We included 28 patients with preoperative and at least two serial follow-up neutral and dynamic cervical spine radiographs who underwent OCC for CSM. Patients with an ossified posterior longitudinal ligament (OPLL) were excluded. Changes in sagittal curvature, segmental and whole spine range of motion (ROM) were measured. Nathan's system graded anterior osteophyte formation. Neurological function was measured by Nurick's grade and modified Japanese Orthopedic Association (JOA) scores. RESULTS: The majority (23 patients) had a single or 2-level corpectomy. The average duration of follow-up was 45 months. The Nurick's grade and the JOA scores showed statistically significant improvements after surgery (p < 0.001). 17% of patients with preoperative lordotic spines had a loss of lordosis at last follow-up, but with no clinical worsening. 77% of the whole spine ROM and 62% of segmental ROM was preserved at last follow-up. The whole spine and segmental ROM decreased by 11.2° and 10.9°, respectively (p ≤ 0.001). Patients with a greater range of segmental movement preoperatively had a statistically greater range of movement at follow-up. The analysis of serial radiographs indicated that the range of movement of the whole spine and the range of movement at the segmental spine levels significantly reduced during the follow-up period. Nathan's grade showed increase in osteophytosis in more than two-thirds of the patients (p ≤ 0.01). The whole spine range of movement at follow-up significantly correlated with Nathan's grade. CONCLUSIONS: Although the OCC preserves segmental and whole spine ROM, serial measurements show a progressive decrease in ROM albeit without clinical worsening. The reduction in this ROM is probably related to degenerative ossification of spinal ligaments.

Detecting long-range chromatin interactions using the chromosome conformation capture sequencing (4C-seq) method.

Eukaryotic transcription is tightly regulated by transcriptional regulatory elements, even though these elements may be located far away from their target genes. It is now widely recognized that these regulatory elements can be brought in close proximity through the formation of chromatin loops, and that these loops are crucial for transcriptional regulation of their target genes. The chromosome conformation capture (3C) technique presents a snapshot of long-range interactions, by fixing physically interacting elements with formaldehyde, digestion of the DNA, and ligation to obtain a library of unique ligation products. Recently, several large-scale modifications to the 3C technique have been presented. Here, we describe chromosome conformation capture sequencing (4C-seq), a high-throughput version of the 3C technique that combines the 3C-on-chip (4C) protocol with next-generation Illumina sequencing. The method is presented for use in mammalian cell lines, but can be adapted to use in mammalian tissues and any other eukaryotic genome.

Comparação de métodos para estimar a acidez potencial mediante determinação do pH SMP em Organossolos da Serra do Espinhaço Meridional

Apesar do potencial para uso agrícola e das características edáficas peculiares, poucos trabalhos são desenvolvidos para estimar a acidez potencial dos solos com elevado teor de matéria orgânica. O objetivo deste trabalho foi definir um modelo matemático que estime a acidez potencial (H + Al) a partir do pH SMP após determinação do pH do solo em água ou em solução de CaCl2 10 mmol L-1, com leitura do pH na suspensão ou sobrenadante da solução SMP de equilíbrio, em determinada relação solo:tampão SMP, em Organossolos da Serra do Espinhaço Meridional (SdEM), Estado de Minas Gerais, situada entre 17 ° 30 ' a 20 ° 30 ' S e 43 ° a 44 ° W. Foram utilizadas 22 amostras de Organossolos classificados como Organossolo Háplico sáprico térrico, Organossolo Háplico fíbrico típico e Organossolo Háplico hêmico típico da SdEM. A acidez potencial dos Organossolos da SdEM pode ser estimada satisfatoriamente por meio do pH SMP na relação solo:tampão SMP de 10:10 medido na suspensão solo-solução SMP associada à rotina de determinação do pH do solo em água. O C orgânico foi o atributo químico que mais influenciou a acidez potencial dos Organossolos da SdEM.

Impact of free-range pigs on mountain pastures in the Swiss Jura

The consequences of foraging by free-range pigs on the vegetation of mountain pastures was investigated. 25 pigs (15 week-old, mean weight 50 kg) were enclosed from June to mid-September in a 2 ha-enclosure in Jura Mountains (Switzerland), fed with a mixture of lactoserum and cereals. The enclosure contained five different plant communities. Eutrophic pastures on deep soil were strongly overturned, but the recolonisation was quick and dominated by the original species. Mesotrophic pastures were less damaged on stony soil but completely destroyed on deep soil, and the recovery was slow, characterised by a shift of plant species in a more eutrophic direction. Four years were not sufficient for complete recovery. Oligotrophic calcareous pastures on shallow stony soil were not damaged. Extensive breeding of pigs in mountain pastures might be harmful to plant species and vegetation, and ought to be restricted to the less sensitive plant communities, with a rotation on two to three different sites.

Effect of a temperature increase in the non-noxious range on proton-evoked ASIC and TRPV1 activity.

Acid-sensing ion channels (ASICs) are neuronal H(+)-gated cation channels, and the transient receptor potential vanilloid 1 channel (TRPV1) is a multimodal cation channel activated by low pH, noxious heat, capsaicin, and voltage. ASICs and TRPV1 are present in sensory neurons. It has been shown that raising the temperature increases TRPV1 and decreases ASIC H(+)-gated current amplitudes. To understand the underlying mechanisms, we have analyzed ASIC and TRPV1 function in a recombinant expression system and in dorsal root ganglion (DRG) neurons at room and physiological temperature. We show that temperature in the range studied does not affect the pH dependence of ASIC and TRPV1 activation. A temperature increase induces, however, a small alkaline shift of the pH dependence of steady-state inactivation of ASIC1a, ASIC1b, and ASIC2a. The decrease in ASIC peak current amplitudes at higher temperatures is likely in part due to the observed accelerated open channel inactivation kinetics and for some ASIC types to the changed pH dependence of steady-state inactivation. The increase in H(+)-activated TRPV1 current at the higher temperature is at least in part due to a hyperpolarizing shift in its voltage dependence. The contribution of TRPV1 relative to ASICs to H(+)-gated currents in DRG neurons increases with higher temperature and acidity. Still, ASICs remain the principal pH sensors of DRG neurons at 35°C in the pH range ≥6.

Semiclassical theory of shot noise in ballistic n+in+ semiconductor structures: relevance of Pauli and long range Coulomb interactions

We work out a semiclassical theory of shot noise in ballistic n+-i-n+ semiconductor structures aiming at studying two fundamental physical correlations coming from Pauli exclusion principle and long-range Coulomb interaction. The theory provides a unifying scheme which, in addition to the current-voltage characteristics, describes the suppression of shot noise due to Pauli and Coulomb correlations in the whole range of system parameters and applied bias. The whole scenario is summarized by a phase diagram in the plane of two dimensionless variables related to the sample length and contact chemical potential. Here different regions of physical interest can be identified where only Coulomb or only Pauli correlations are active, or where both are present with different relevance. The predictions of the theory are proven to be fully corroborated by Monte Carlo simulations.

Turfeiras da Serra do Espinhaço Meridional - MG: I - caracterização e classificação

As turfeiras são ambientes especiais para estudos relacionados com a dinâmica da matéria orgânica, evolução das paisagens, mudanças climáticas e ciclos de poluição atmosférica locais, regionais e globais. Elas contribuem para o sequestro global de carbono, funcionam como reservatórios de água e constituem o ambiente de uma biodiversidade endêmica. A Serra do Espinhaço Meridional (SdEM), "Reserva da Biosfera Terrestre", apresenta uma área significativa formada por diferentes tipos de turfeira, que foram descritas em três perfis, situados a 1.250 m (P1), 1.800 m (P2) e 1.350 m (P4) de altitude e classificados respectivamente como Organossolo Háplico Sáprico térrico (P1), Organossolo Háplico Fíbrico típico (P2) e Organossolo Háplico Hêmico típico (P4), de acordo com o Sistema Brasileiro de Classificação de Solos. Os três perfis foram caracterizados morfologicamente e, nas amostras coletadas, foram realizadas análises químicas, físicas e microbiológicas. Verificou-se que a localização, a altitude e a drenagem influenciaram os atributos morfológicos, físicos, químicos e microbiológicos das turfeiras da SdEM. O estádio de decomposição da matéria orgânica é mais avançado com a melhoria da drenagem nas turfeiras. O teor de metais pesados está relacionado com o teor e a composição granulométrica da fração mineral e com a localização das turfeiras. O perfil P1 apresentou os mais elevados teores médios de Ti, Zr e Pb; em P2 foram detectados os teores médios mais elevados de Mn, Zn e Cu; e o teor médio de Fe é mais elevado em P4. A intensidade da atividade microbiológica das turfeiras P2 e P4 relacionou-se com sua drenagem e com o teor de metais pesados de suas camadas.