A ship run aground Deepening problems in the Ukrainian economy. OSW Commentary Number 173, 16 June 2015

The drop in Ukraine’s GDP by nearly 18% in the first three months of 2015 (versus the corresponding period in 2014) has confirmed the decline of the country’s economy. Over the last 14 months, the Ukrainian currency was subject to an almost threefold devaluation against the US dollar, and in April 2015 the inflation rate was 61% (year-on-year), which exacerbated the impoverishment of the general public and weakened domestic demand. The main reason behind the crisis has been the destruction of heavy industry and infrastructure in the war-torn Donbas region, over which Kyiv no longer has control, as well as a sharp decline in foreign trade (by 24% in 2014 and by 34% in the first quarter of 2015), recorded primarily in trading volume with Ukraine’s major trade partner, i.e. Russia (a drop of 43%). The conflict has also had a negative impact on the production figures for the two key sectors of the Ukrainian economy: agriculture and metallurgy, which account for approximately 50% of Ukrainian exports. The government’s response to the crisis has primarily been a reduction in the costs of financing the Donbas and an increase in the financial burden placed on the citizens and companies of Ukraine. No radical reforms which would encompass the entire system, including anti-corruption reforms, have been carried out to stop the embezzlement of state funds and to facilitate business activity. The reasons for not initiating reforms have included the lack of will to launch them, Ukraine’s traditionally slow pace of bureaucratic action and growing dissonance among the parties making up the parliamentary coalition. The few positive changes, including marketisation of energy prices and sustaining budgetary discipline (in the first quarter of 2015, budgetary revenues grew by 25%, though partly as a result of currency devaluation), are being carried out under pressure from the International Monetary Fund, which is making the payment of further loan instalments to the tune of US$ 17.5 billion conditional upon reforms. Despite assistance granted by Western institutional donors and by individual states, the risk of Ukraine going bankrupt remains real. The issue of restructuring foreign debt worth US$ 15 billion has not been resolved, as foreign creditors who hold Ukrainian bonds have not consented to any partial cancellation of the debt. Whether Ukraine’s public finances can be stabilised will depend mainly on the situation in the east of the country and on the possible renewal of military action. It seems that the only way to rescue Ukraine’s public finances from deteriorating further is to continue to ‘freeze’ the conflict, to gradually implement wide-ranging reforms and to reach a consensus in negotiations with lenders.

(Table 1, page 605) Chemistry of concretions from Grand Lake (GL) and Ship Harbour Lake (SH), Nova Scotia and Mosque Lake (ML), Ontario

Studies by optical microscopy, x-ray diffraction, and electron probe techniques of ferromanganese concretions from three Canadian lakes reveal chemical banding of amorphous hydrated iron and manganese oxides. The average ratio of iron to manganese in concretions from these lakes varies from 0.43 to 2.56. The concentrations of cobalt, nickel, copper, and lead are one to two orders of magnitude below those reported for oceanic ferromanganese concretions.

(Table 2) Picked maximum velocities from 3 radars (RAY, SHK, and SUM), showing 10 explosions at Erebus volcano, Antarctica, and their respective directivity vectors

We used a novel system of three continuous wave Doppler radars to successfully record the directivity of i) Strombolian explosions from the active lava lake of Erebus volcano, Antarctica, ii) eruptions at Stromboli volcano, Italy, and iii) a man-made explosion in a quarry. Erebus volcano contains a convecting phonolite lava lake, presumably connected to a magma chamber at depth. It is one of the few open vent volcanoes that allow a direct observation of source processes during explosions. Its lava lake is the source of frequent violent Strombolian explosions, caused by large gas bubbles bursting at the lake surface. The exact mechanism of these bubble bursts is unclear, as is the mechanism of the creation of the infrasound signal accompanying the explosions. We use the Doppler radar data to calculate the directivity of Strombolian eruptions at Erebus. This allows us to derive information about the expected type of infrasound source pattern (i.e. the role of a dipole in addition to the monopole signature) and the physical structure of the volcano. We recorded 10 large explosions simultaneously with three radars, enabling us to calculate time series of 3D directivity vectors (i.e. effectively 4D), which describe the direction of preferred expansion of the gas bubble during an explosion. Such directivity information allows a comparison to dipole infrasound radiation patterns recorded during similar explosions only a few weeks later. Video observations of explosions support our interpretation of the measurements. We conclude that at Erebus, the directivity of explosions is mainly controlled by random processes. Since the geometry of the uppermost conduit is assumed to have a large effect on the directivity of explosions, the results suggest a largely symmetrical uppermost conduit with a vertical axis of symmetry. For infrasound recordings, a significant dipole signature can be expected in addition to the predominant monopole signature.

Ship.

[From Jasper Cropsey Sketch book, 1855-1856]

Lake, ship and trees.

[From Jasper Cropsey Sketch book, 1855-1856]

Selected occupational fatalities related to ship building and repairing as found in reports of OSHA fatality/catastrophe investigations.

"January 1990."

Ship maintenance: foreign commercial shipyard repairs to U.S. government ships.

Mode of access: Internet.

Navy ships: status of SSN-32 ship construction program.

Mode of access: Internet.

Ship simulation study of Grays Harbor Navigation Project, Grays Harbor, Washington /

Authors: J. Christopher Hewlett, Kathren M. Eagles, Carl J. Huval, Larry L. Daggett.