A Multilevel Model with Time Series Components for the Analysis of Tribal Art Prices

In the present work we perform an econometric analysis of the Tribal art market. To this aim, we use a unique and original database that includes information on Tribal art market auctions worldwide from 1998 to 2011. In Literature, art prices are modelled through the hedonic regression model, a classic fixed-effect model. The main drawback of the hedonic approach is the large number of parameters, since, in general, art data include many categorical variables. In this work, we propose a multilevel model for the analysis of Tribal art prices that takes into account the influence of time on artwork prices. In fact, it is natural to assume that time exerts an influence over the price dynamics in various ways. Nevertheless, since the set of objects change at every auction date, we do not have repeated measurements of the same items over time. Hence, the dataset does not constitute a proper panel; rather, it has a two-level structure in that items, level-1 units, are grouped in time points, level-2 units. The main theoretical contribution is the extension of classical multilevel models to cope with the case described above. In particular, we introduce a model with time dependent random effects at the second level. We propose a novel specification of the model, derive the maximum likelihood estimators and implement them through the E-M algorithm. We test the finite sample properties of the estimators and the validity of the own-written R-code by means of a simulation study. Finally, we show that the new model improves considerably the fit of the Tribal art data with respect to both the hedonic regression model and the classic multilevel model.

Statistical mapping of real environments with uwb radars

In this master thesis I evaluated the performance of a Ultra-Wide Bandwidth (UWB) radar system for indoor environments mapping. In particular, I used a statistical Bayesian approach which is able to combine all the measurements collected by the radar, including system non-idealities such as the error on the estimated antenna pointing direction or on the estimated radar position. First I verified through simulations that the system was able to provide a sufficiently accurate reconstruction of the surrounding environment despite the limitations imposed by the UWB technology. In fact, the emission of UWB pulses is limited in terms of transmitted power by international regulations. Motivated by the promising results obtained through simulations, I successively carried out a measurement campaign in a real indoor environment using a UWB commercial device. The obtained results showed that the UWB radar system is capable of providing an accurate reconstruction of indoor environments also adopting not directional antennas.

Triple innominate osteotomy for Legg-Calvé-Perthes disease in children: does the lateral coverage change with time?

Triple innominate osteotomy (TIO) is one of the modalities of surgical containment in Legg-Calvé-Perthes disease (LCPD). However, overcoverage with TIO can lead to pincer impingement.

A Nonstationary Negative Binomial Time Series with Time-Dependent Covariates: Enterococcus Counts in Boston Harbor

Boston Harbor has had a history of poor water quality, including contamination by enteric pathogens. We conduct a statistical analysis of data collected by the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority (MWRA) between 1996 and 2002 to evaluate the effects of court-mandated improvements in sewage treatment. Motivated by the ineffectiveness of standard Poisson mixture models and their zero-inflated counterparts, we propose a new negative binomial model for time series of Enterococcus counts in Boston Harbor, where nonstationarity and autocorrelation are modeled using a nonparametric smooth function of time in the predictor. Without further restrictions, this function is not identifiable in the presence of time-dependent covariates; consequently we use a basis orthogonal to the space spanned by the covariates and use penalized quasi-likelihood (PQL) for estimation. We conclude that Enterococcus counts were greatly reduced near the Nut Island Treatment Plant (NITP) outfalls following the transfer of wastewaters from NITP to the Deer Island Treatment Plant (DITP) and that the transfer of wastewaters from Boston Harbor to the offshore diffusers in Massachusetts Bay reduced the Enterococcus counts near the DITP outfalls.

A Cooperative and Adaptive Variable Neighborhood Search for the Multi Depot Vehicle Routing Problem with Time Windows

In this paper we propose two cooperation schemes to compose new parallel variants of the Variable Neighborhood Search (VNS). On the one hand, a coarse-grained cooperation scheme is introduced which is well suited for being enhanced with a solution warehouse to store and manage the so far best found solutions and a self-adapting mechanism for the most important search parameters. This makes an a priori parameter tuning obsolete. On the other hand, a fine-grained scheme was designed to reproduce the successful properties of the sequential VNS. In combination with the use of parallel exploration threads all of the best solutions and 11 out of 20 new best solutions for the Multi Depot Vehicle Routing Problem with Time Windows were found.

AN ILLNESS-DEATH PROCESS WITH TIME-DEPENDENT COVARIATES

A general model for the illness-death stochastic process with covariates has been developed for the analysis of survival data. This model incorporates important baseline and time-dependent covariates to make proper adjustment for the transition probabilities and survival probabilities. The follow-up period is subdivided into small intervals and a constant hazard is assumed for each interval. An approximation formula is derived to estimate the transition parameters when the exact transition time is unknown.^ The method developed is illustrated by using data from a study on the prevention of the recurrence of a myocardial infarction and subsequent mortality, the Beta-Blocker Heart Attack Trial (BHAT). This method provides an analytical approach which simultaneously includes provision for both fatal and nonfatal events in the model. According to this analysis, the effectiveness of the treatment can be compared between the Placebo and Propranolol treatment groups with respect to fatal and nonfatal events. ^

Age -period -cohort analysis: An extension of Cox's lifetable regression with time -dependent covariates

It is well known that an identification problem exists in the analysis of age-period-cohort data because of the relationship among the three factors (date of birth + age at death = date of death). There are numerous suggestions about how to analyze the data. No one solution has been satisfactory. The purpose of this study is to provide another analytic method by extending the Cox's lifetable regression model with time-dependent covariates. The new approach contains the following features: (1) It is based on the conditional maximum likelihood procedure using a proportional hazard function described by Cox (1972), treating the age factor as the underlying hazard to estimate the parameters for the cohort and period factors. (2) The model is flexible so that both the cohort and period factors can be treated as dummy or continuous variables, and the parameter estimations can be obtained for numerous combinations of variables as in a regression analysis. (3) The model is applicable even when the time period is unequally spaced.^ Two specific models are considered to illustrate the new approach and applied to the U.S. prostate cancer data. We find that there are significant differences between all cohorts and there is a significant period effect for both whites and nonwhites. The underlying hazard increases exponentially with age indicating that old people have much higher risk than young people. A log transformation of relative risk shows that the prostate cancer risk declined in recent cohorts for both models. However, prostate cancer risk declined 5 cohorts (25 years) earlier for whites than for nonwhites under the period factor model (0 0 0 1 1 1 1). These latter results are similar to the previous study by Holford (1983).^ The new approach offers a general method to analyze the age-period-cohort data without using any arbitrary constraint in the model. ^

A novel context ontology to facilitate interoperation of semantic services in environments with wearable devices

The LifeWear-Mobilized Lifestyle with Wearables (Lifewear) project attempts to create Ambient Intelligence (AmI) ecosystems by composing personalized services based on the user information, environmental conditions and reasoning outputs. Two of the most important benefits over traditional environments are 1) take advantage of wearable devices to get user information in a nonintrusive way and 2) integrate this information with other intelligent services and environmental sensors. This paper proposes a new ontology composed by the integration of users and services information, for semantically representing this information. Using an Enterprise Service Bus, this ontology is integrated in a semantic middleware to provide context-aware personalized and semantically annotated services, with discovery, composition and orchestration tasks. We show how these services support a real scenario proposed in the Lifewear project.

Agreement in wider environments with weaker assumptions.

The set agreement problem states that from n proposed values at most n?1 can be decided. Traditionally, this problem is solved using a failure detector in asynchronous systems where processes may crash but do not recover, where processes have different identities, and where all processes initially know the membership. In this paper we study the set agreement problem and the weakest failure detector L used to solve it in asynchronous message passing systems where processes may crash and recover, with homonyms (i.e., processes may have equal identities) and without a complete initial knowledge of the membership.

Non-destructive optical characterisation of fruits with time-resolved reflectance spectroscopy.

Increasing attention is being paid to the possible development of non-invasive tests for the assessment of the quality of fruits We propose a novel non-destructive method for the measurement of the internal optical properties of fruits and vegetables by means of time resolved reflectance spectroscopy in the visible and NIR range. A fully automated instrumentation for time-resolved reflectance measurements was developed It is based on mode-locked laser sources and electronics for time-correlated single photon counting, and provides a time-resolution of 120-160 ps The system was used to probe the optical properties of several species and varieties of fruits and vegetables in the red and NIR range (650-1000 nm). In most fruits, the absorption line shape is dominated by the absorption peak of water, centred around 970 nm Generally, the absorption spectra also show the spectral features typical of chlorophyll, with maximum at 675 nm In particular, for what concerns apples, variations in peak intensity are observed depending on the variety, the degree of ripeness as well as the position on the apple. For all the species and varieties considered, the transport scattering coefficient decreases progressively upon increasing the wavelength.