Leading indicator properties of US high-yield credit spreads

In this paper we examine the out-of-sample forecast performance of high-yield credit spreads regarding real-time and revised data on employment and industrial production in the US. We evaluate models using both a point forecast and a probability forecast exercise. Our main findings suggest the use of few factors obtained by pooling information from a number of sector-specific high-yield credit spreads. This can be justified by observing that, especially for employment, there is a gain from using a principal components model fitted to high-yield credit spreads compared to the prediction produced by benchmarks, such as an AR, and ARDL models that use either the term spread or the aggregate high-yield spread as exogenous regressor. Moreover, forecasts based on real-time data are generally comparable to forecasts based on revised data. JEL Classification: C22; C53; E32 Keywords: Credit spreads; Principal components; Forecasting; Real-time data.

Effects of different mating scenarios on embryo viability in brown trout.

Mating with attractive or dominant males is often predicted to offer indirect genetic benefits to females, but it is still largely unclear how important such non-random mating can be with regard to embryo viability. We sampled a natural population of adult migratory brown trout (Salmo trutta), bred them in vitro in a half-sib breeding design to separate genetic from maternal environmental effects, raised 2098 embryos singly until hatching, and exposed them experimentally to different levels of pathogen stress at a late embryonic stage. We found that the embryos' tolerance to the induced pathogen stress was linked to the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) of their parents, i.e. certain MHC genotypes appeared to provide better protection against infection than others. We also found significant additive genetic variance for stress tolerance. Melanin-based dark skin patterns revealed males with 'good genes', i.e. embryos fathered by dark coloured males had a high tolerance to infection. Mating with large and dominant males would, however, not improve embryo viability when compared to random mating. We used simulations to provide estimates of how mate choice based on MHC or melanin-based skin patterns would influence embryos' tolerance to the experimentally induced pathogen stress.

Proliferation of chick embryo neuroblasts grown in the presence of horse serum requires exogenous transferrin.

We have previously shown that neuroblasts from cerebral hemispheres of 6-day-old chick embryos are able to proliferate when grown in the presence of fetal calf serum. We report here that in the presence of horse serum alone the proliferative rate of neuroblasts is strongly reduced. A high proliferative rate is restored upon the addition of bovine transferrin and to a lesser extent with added FeSO4 or hemin. These findings suggest that the transferrin of horse serum cannot be used by chick neuroblasts in vitro, while bovine transferrin exogenously added is active in promoting cell proliferation. We propose that the stimulatory activity of the fetal calf serum is due to bovine transferrin, since when this serum is fractionated by gel filtration, the fractions that stimulate the proliferation of neuroblasts grown in the presence of horse serum are located in the molecular weight area of transferrin, and they do contain transferrin as seen by immunoblotting with a specific anti-transferrin antibody.

Is the diagnostic yield of upper GI endoscopy improved by the use of explicit panel-based appropriateness criteria?

BACKGROUND: Increasing the appropriateness of use of upper gastrointestinal (GI) endoscopy is important to improve quality of care while at the same time containing costs. This study explored whether detailed explicit appropriateness criteria significantly improve the diagnostic yield of upper GI endoscopy. METHODS: Consecutive patients referred for upper GI endoscopy at 6 centers (1 university hospital, 2 district hospitals, 3 gastroenterology practices) were prospectively included over a 6-month period. After controlling for disease presentation and patient characteristics, the relationship between the appropriateness of upper GI endoscopy, as assessed by explicit Swiss criteria developed by the RAND/UCLA panel method, and the presence of relevant endoscopic lesions was analyzed. RESULTS: A total of 2088 patients (60% outpatients, 57% men) were included. Analysis was restricted to the 1681 patients referred for diagnostic upper GI endoscopy. Forty-six percent of upper GI endoscopies were judged to be appropriate, 15% uncertain, and 39% inappropriate by the explicit criteria. No cancer was found in upper GI endoscopies judged to be inappropriate. Upper GI endoscopies judged appropriate or uncertain yielded significantly more relevant lesions (60%) than did those judged to be inappropriate (37%; odds ratio 2.6: 95% CI [2.2, 3.2]). In multivariate analyses, the diagnostic yield of upper GI endoscopy was significantly influenced by appropriateness, patient gender and age, treatment setting, and symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: Upper GI endoscopies performed for appropriate indications resulted in detecting significantly more clinically relevant lesions than did those performed for inappropriate indications. In addition, no upper GI endoscopy that resulted in a diagnosis of cancer was judged to be inappropriate. The use of such criteria improves patient selection for upper GI endoscopy and can thus contribute to efforts aimed at enhancing the quality and efficiency of care. (Gastrointest Endosc 2000;52:333-41).

Tritordeum, wheat and triticale yield components under multi-local mediterranean drought conditions

The species x location interaction was of great importance in explaining the behaviour of genetic material. The study presented here shows, for the first time, the performance, under field conditions of the new tritordeum species, compared to wheat and triticale in a wide range of Mediterranean countries (Spain, Lebanon and Tunisia). The results obtained revealed that despite the diversity of environmental conditions, the main differences in yield were due to genotypes, especially to differences between species. The multi-local study with different growth conditions revealed important information about the water availability effect on yield. In the lowest yielding environments (Tunisia rainfed), Tritordeum and triticale yields were equivalent. However under better growth conditions (Spain), tritordeum yield was shown to be lower than wheat and triticale. Interestingly, when water limitation was extended during the pre-anthesis period, differences in tritordeum versus wheat-triticale yield rate were larger than when water stress occurred during anthesis. These variations were explained by the fact that kernel weight has been found as the limiting factor for yield determination in tritordeum, and a delay in the anthesis date may have been the cause for the low kernel weight and low yield under Mediterranean drought conditions. Such differences in yield between tritordeum and wheat or triticale could be explained by the fact that tritordeum is a relatively new species and far fewer resources have been devoted to its improvement when compared to wheat and triticale. Our results suggest that breeding efforts should be directed to an earlier anthesis date and a longer grain filling period. tritordeum proved to have possibilities to be grown under drought environments as a new crop, since its performance was quite close to wheat and triticale. Besides, it has qualitative added values that may improve farmers' income per unit land.

THE HIGH DIAGNOSTIC YIELD OF A GERIATRIC OUTPATIENT CLINIC

Objectives: To determine characteristics of older patients referred to a geriatric outpatient clinic; 2) to determine the prevalence of geriatric syndromes in this population; 3) to identify main recommendations made to referring primary care physicians. Design: Cross-sectional analysis Setting: Outpatient clinic of the service of geriatric medicine at the University of Lausanne Medical Center, Lausanne, Switzerland. Participants: Community-dwelling patients aged 65 and over referred to the clinic. Measurements: Demographics, social, functional and health status data, main diagnoses identified and recommendations made for primary care physicians were collected prospectively. Results: Subjects (N=206, mean age 79.7±7.6 years, 57.3% women, 48.5% living alone, 36.9% receiving formal home care) were referred by primary care physicians (76%), hospitalists (18%), or family members (7%). Main reasons for referral were request for comprehensive assessment, cognitive evaluation, and mobility assessment (45.2%, 26.2%, and 15.5%, respectively). 21.4% of patients are independent in Lawton's Instrumental ADL and 47.1% are independent in Katz's Basic ADL, and 57.3% of patients reported having fallen once or more over the last year. Overall, 76.2% of patients had gait and balance impairment, 72.8% cognitive impairment, 57.3% polypharmacy (≥6 drugs; median 6.5±3.9, IQR 4-8), 54.4% affective disorder, 48.3% osteoporosis, 45.1% urinary incontinence and 33.8% orthostatic hypotension. Polymorbidity (≥6 geriatric syndromes) was present in 58.3% of referred patients. On average, patients received 10.6±4.0 recommendations, including fall prevention interventions (85.2 % of patients: walking aid adaptation in 48.1%, vitamin D prescription in 59.7%, home hazards assessment in 59.2%, and exercise prescription in 53.4%), referral to a memory clinic (45.6%), and treatment modifications (69.9 % of all patients and 81.6% of patients with polypharmacy, mostly psychotropic drugs discontinuation). Conclusions: Polymorbidity was frequent in these older outpatients, with polypharmacy, mobility and cognitive impairments being most prevalent. Outpatient geriatric consultation is a good opportunity to identify geriatric syndromes and propose interventions to prevent or delay functional decline.

Human Plasma-derived Polymeric IgA and IgM Antibodies Associate with Secretory Component to Yield Biologically Active Secretory-like Antibodies.

Immunotherapy with monoclonal and polyclonal immunoglobulin is successfully applied to improve many clinical conditions, including infection, autoimmune diseases, or immunodeficiency. Most immunoglobulin products, recombinant or plasma-derived, are based on IgG antibodies, whereas to date, the use of IgA for therapeutic application has remained anecdotal. In particular, purification or production of large quantities of secretory IgA (SIgA) for potential mucosal application has not been achieved. In this work, we sought to investigate whether polymeric IgA (pIgA) recovered from human plasma is able to associate with secretory component (SC) to generate SIgA-like molecules. We found that ∼15% of plasma pIgA carried J chain and displayed selective SC binding capacity either in a mixture with monomeric IgA (mIgA) or after purification. The recombinant SC associated covalently in a 1:1 stoichiometry with pIgA and with similar efficacy as colostrum-derived SC. In comparison with pIgA, the association with SC delayed degradation of SIgA by intestinal proteases. Similar results were obtained with plasma-derived IgM. In vitro, plasma-derived IgA and SIgA neutralized Shigella flexneri used as a model pathogen, resulting in a delay of bacteria-induced damage targeted to polarized Caco-2 cell monolayers. The sum of these novel data demonstrates that association of plasma-derived IgA or IgM with recombinant/colostrum-derived SC is feasible and yields SIgA- and SIgM-like molecules with similar biochemical and functional characteristics as mucosa-derived immunoglobulins.

Expression of the gene encoding the high-Km glucose transporter 2 by the early postimplantation mouse embryo is essential for neural tube defects associated with diabetic embryopathy.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Excess glucose transport to embryos during diabetic pregnancy causes congenital malformations. The early postimplantation embryo expresses the gene encoding the high-Km GLUT2 (also known as SLC2A2) glucose transporter. The hypothesis tested here is that high-Km glucose transport by GLUT2 causes malformations resulting from maternal hyperglycaemia during diabetic pregnancy. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Glut2 mRNA was assayed by RT-PCR. The Km of embryo glucose transport was determined by measuring 0.5-20 mmol/l 2-deoxy[3H]glucose transport. To test whether the GLUT2 transporter is required for neural tube defects resulting from maternal hyperglycaemia, Glut2+/- mice were crossed and transient hyperglycaemia was induced by glucose injection on day 7.5 of pregnancy. Embryos were recovered on day 10.5, and the incidence of neural tube defects in wild-type, Glut2+/- and Glut2-/- embryos was scored. RESULTS: Early postimplantation embryos expressed Glut2, and expression was unaffected by maternal diabetes. Moreover, glucose transport by these embryos showed Michaelis-Menten kinetics of 16.19 mmol/l, consistent with transport mediated by GLUT2. In pregnancies made hyperglycaemic on day 7.5, neural tube defects were significantly increased in wild-type embryos, but Glut2+/- embryos were partially protected from neural tube defects, and Glut2-/- embryos were completely protected from these defects. The frequency of occurrence of wild-type, Glut2+/- and Glut2-/- embryos suggests that the presence of Glut2 alleles confers a survival advantage in embryos before day 10.5. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATIONS: High-Km glucose transport by the GLUT2 glucose transporter during organogenesis is responsible for the embryopathic effects of maternal diabetes.

Rabies neutralizing antibody detection by indirect immunperoxidase serum neutralization assay performed on chicken embryo related cell line

The aim of this study was to evaluate the indirect immunoperoxidase virus neutralization (IPVN) and mouse neutralization test (MNT) to detect antibodies against rabies virus from vaccinated dogs and cattle. The IPVN was set up for the ability to measure 0.5 International Units/ml (IU) of antibody required by the World Health Organization and the Office International des Epizooties as the minimum response for proof of rabies immunization. IPVN was developed and standardized in chicken embryo related (CER) cell line when 141 dog and 110 cattle sera were applied by serial five-fold dilutions (1:5, 1:25, 1:125) as well as the positive and negative reference controls, all added in four adjacent wells, of 96-well microplates. A 50 µl amount of CVS32 strain dilution containing 50-200 TCID50/ml was mixed to each serum dilution, and after 90 min 50 µl of 3 x 10(5) cells/mlcell suspension added to each well. After five days of incubation, the monolayers were fixed and the IPVN test performed. The correlation coefficient between the MNT and IPVN performed in CER cells was r = 0.9949 for dog sera (n = 100) and r = 0.9307 for cattle sera (n = 99), as well as good specificity (94.7%), sensitivity (87.5%), and agreement (96.6%) were also obtained. IPVN technique can adequately identify vaccinated and unvaccinated animals, even from low-responding vaccinated animals, with the advantage of low cost and faster then MNT standard test.

Effect of embryo culture media on birthweight and length in singleton term infants after IVF-ICSI.

QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY: To investigate if two distinct, commercially available embryo culture media have a different effect on birthweight and length of singleton term infants conceived after IVF-ICSI. METHODS: University hospital based cohort study. Between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2004, patients conceiving through IVF-ICSI at the University Hospital, Lausanne have been allocated to two distinct embryo culture media. Only term singleton pregnancies were analysed (n = 525). Data analysis was performed according to two commercially available culture media: Vitrolife (n = 352) versus Cook (n = 173). Analysis was performed through linear regression adjusted for confounders. Media were considered equivalent if the 95% confidence interval lay between -150 g/+150 g. RESULTS: Length, gestational age and distribution of birthweight percentiles did not differ between groups (for both genders). Analysis of the whole cohort, adjusted for a subset of confounders, resulted in a statistically not different mean birthweight between the two groups (Vitrolife +37 g vs Cook, 95%CI: -46 g to 119 g) suggesting equivalence. Adjustment for an enlarged number of confounders in a subsample of patients (n = 258) also revealed no relevant mean birthweight difference of +71 g (95%CI: -45 g to 187 g) in favour of Vitrolife; however, lacking power to prove equivalence. CONCLUSIONS: Our data suggest that significant differences in birthweight due to these two distinct, commercially available embryo culture media are unlikely.

What is the most relevant standard of success in assisted reproduction?: The cumulated singleton/twin delivery rates per oocyte pick-up: the CUSIDERA and CUTWIDERA.

National and international registries are essential tools for establishing new standards and comparing success rates, but they do not take into account the total pregnancy/delivery rate per oocyte recovery. In Switzerland and Germany, because of legal constraints, a maximum of three two-pronuclear zygotes are allocated for transfer whereas all the supernumerary pronuclear zygotes are immediately cryopreserved, preventing selection of the transferred embryos. We report on a 10 years' experience (1993-2002) of our centre which performs transfers of unselected embryos and cryopreservation at the two-pronuclear zygote stage. As approximately 30% of all deliveries are from cryo cycles, it is essential to take into account the contribution of the cryo transfers, and we propose therefore to evaluate, as a measure of IVF performance, the cumulated delivery rate per oocyte pick-up. This delivery rate is broken down further into the cumulated singleton delivery rate (CUSIDERA) and the cumulated twin delivery rate (CUTWIDERA). The sum (S) of these two rates is a measure of efficacy while the ratio CUTWIDERA/S as a percentage is a measure of safety of IVF treatments. Using these new indexes, the average 10 year efficacy and safety of our IVF programme were 26 and 19%, respectively. Both CUSIDERA and CUTWIDERA can be calculated easily in any clinical situation and yield useful parameters for patient counselling and internal/external benchmarking purposes.

Calbindin-immunoreactive sensory neurons in dissociated dorsal root ganglion cell cultures of chick embryo: role of culture conditions.

Immunoreactivity to calbindin D-28k, a vitamin D-dependent calcium-binding protein, is expressed by neuronal subpopulations of dorsal root ganglia (DRG) in the chick embryo. To determine whether the expression of this phenotypic characteristic is maintained in vitro and controlled by environmental factors, dissociated DRG cell cultures were performed under various conditions. Subpopulations of DRG cells cultured at embryonic day 10 displayed calbindin-immunoreactive cell bodies and neurites in both neuron-enriched or mixed DRG cell cultures. The number of calbindin-immunoreactive ganglion cells increased up to 7-10 days of culture independently of the changes occurring in the whole neuronal population. The presence of non-neuronal cells, which promotes the maturation of the sensory neurons, tended to reduce the percentage of calbindin-immunoreactive cell bodies. Addition of horse serum enhanced both the number of calbindin-positive neurons and the intensity of the immunostaining, but does not prevent the decline of the subpopulation of calbindin-immunoreactive neurons during the second week of culture; on the contrary, the addition of muscular extract to cultures at 10 days maintained the number of calbindin-expressing neurons. While calbindin-immunoreactive cell bodies grown in culture were small- or medium-sized, no correlation was found between cell size and immunostaining density. At the ultrastructural level, the calbindin immunoreaction was distributed throughout the neuroplasm. These results indicate that the expression of calbindin by sensory neurons grown in vitro may be modulated by horse serum-contained factors or interaction with non-neuronal cells. As distinct from horse serum, muscular extract is able to maintain the expression of calbindin by a subpopulation of DRG cells.