In search of good probability assessors: An experimental comparison of elicitation rules for confidence judgments

In this paper, we use an experimental design to compare the performance of elicitation rules for subjective beliefs. Contrary to previous works in which elicited beliefs are compared to an objective benchmark, we consider a purely subjective belief framework (confidence in one’s own performance in a cognitive task and a perceptual task). The performance of different elicitation rules is assessed according to the accuracy of stated beliefs in predicting success. We measure this accuracy using two main factors: calibration and discrimination. For each of them, we propose two statistical indexes and we compare the rules’ performances for each measurement. The matching probability method provides more accurate beliefs in terms of discrimination, while the quadratic scoring rule reduces overconfidence and the free rule, a simple rule with no incentives, which succeeds in eliciting accurate beliefs. Nevertheless, the matching probability appears to be the best mechanism for eliciting beliefs due to its performances in terms of calibration and discrimination, but also its ability to elicit consistent beliefs across measures and across tasks, as well as its empirical and theoretical properties.

A longitudinal study of employee adaptation to organizational change: The role of change-related information and change-related self-efficacy

This study examined the role of information, efficacy, and 3 stressors in predicting adjustment to organizational change. Participants were 589 government employees undergoing an 18-month process of regionalization. To examine if the predictor variables had long-term effects on adjustment, the authors assessed psychological well-being, client engagement, and job satisfaction again at a 2-year follow-up. At Time 1, there was evidence to suggest that information was indirectly related to psychological well-being, client engagement, and job satisfaction, via its positive relationship to efficacy. There also was evidence to suggest that efficacy was related to reduced stress appraisals, thereby heightening client engagement. Last, there was consistent support for the stress-buffering role of Time 1 self-efficacy in the prediction of Time 2 job satisfaction.

Employee reactions to behavioural control under conditions of stress: The moderating role of self-efficacy

Extensive research conducted in the occupational stress literature has failed to provide convincing support for the stress-buffering effects of work control on employee adjustment. Drawing on research conducted in the laboratory context, it was proposed that the stress-buffering effects of work control on employee adjustment would be more marked at high, rather than low, levels of self-efficacy. In a sample of 100 customer service representatives, a significant three-way interaction among role conflict, work control and self-efficacy (measured at Time 1) was observed on (low) depersonalization (measured at Time 2). Consistent with expectations, work control reduced the negative effects of work stress on this outcome measure only for employees who perceived high levels of self-efficacy at work. In addition, there was evidence to suggest that self-efficacy moderated the main effects of work control on job satisfaction and somatic health. These findings are discussed in terms of their theoretical contribution to the job strain model, and also in relation to workplace interventions designed to improve levels of employee adjustment.

A pilot study investigating the efficacy of an imagery-based motivational intervention for smoking cessation

This pilot study evaluated the potential efficacy of an imagery-based intervention called Functional Imagery Training (FIT) as a therapeutic approach to smoking cessation. FIT showed promising results in reducing cigarette use, managing craving, and promoting abstinence among smokers when compared to a control condition, and may play a role in maintaining smokers' motivation to quit. This study was the first of its kind, and paves the way for future investigations into FIT as a smoking cessation intervention.

Efficacy and safety of adalimumab in patients with non-radiographic axial spondyloarthritis: Results of a randomised placebo-controlled trial (ABILITY-1)

Purpose: To evaluate the efficacy and safety of adalimumab in patients with non-radiographic axial spondyloarthritis (nr-axSpA). Methods: Patients fulfilled Assessment of Spondyloarthritis international Society (ASAS) criteria for axial spondyloarthritis, had a Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Index (BASDAI) score of ≥ 4, total back pain score of ≥ 4 (10 cm visual analogue scale) and inadequate response, intolerance or contraindication to non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs); patients fulfilling modified New York criteria for ankylosing spondylitis were excluded. Patients were randomised to adalimumab (N=91) or placebo (N=94). The primary endpoint was the percentage of patients achieving ASAS40 at week 12. Efficacy assessments included BASDAI and Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Score (ASDAS). MRI was performed at baseline and week 12 and scored using the Spondyloarthritis Research Consortium of Canada (SPARCC) index. Results: Significantly more patients in the adalimumab group achieved ASAS40 at week 12 compared with patients in the placebo group (36% vs 15%, p<0.001). Significant clinical improvements based on other ASAS responses, ASDAS and BASDAI were also detected at week 12 with adalimumab treatment, as were improvements in quality of life measures. Inflammation in the spine and sacroiliac joints on MRI significantly decreased after 12 weeks of adalimumab treatment. Shorter disease duration, younger age, elevated baseline C-reactive protein or higher SPARCC MRI sacroiliac joint scores were associated with better week 12 responses to adalimumab. The safety profile was consistent with what is known for adalimumab in ankylosing spondylitis and other diseases. Conclusions: In patients with nr-axSpA, adalimumab treatment resulted in effective control of disease activity, decreased inflammation and improved quality of life compared with placebo. Results from ABILITY-1 suggest that adalimumab has a positive benefit-risk profile in active nr-axSpA patients with inadequate response to NSAIDs.

Efficacy and feasibility of a tele-health intervention for acute coronary syndrome patients with depression: Results of the 'MoodCare' randomized controlled trial

Background Depression is common after a cardiac event, yet there remain few approaches to management that are both effective and scalable. Purpose We aimed to evaluate the 6-month efficacy and feasibility of a tele-health program (MoodCare) that integrates depression management into a cardiovascular disease risk reduction program for acute coronary syndrome patients with low mood. Methods A two-arm, parallel, randomized design was used comprising 121 patients admitted to one of six hospitals for acute coronary syndrome. Results Significant treatment effects were observed for Patient Health Questionnaire 9 (PHQ9) depression (mean difference [change] = −1.8; p = 0.025; effect size: d = 0.36) for the overall sample, when compared with usual medical care. Results were more pronounced effects for those with a history of depression (mean difference [change] = −2.7; p = 0.043; effect size: d = 0.65). Conclusions MoodCare was effective for improving depression in acute coronary syndrome patients, producing effect sizes exceeding those of some face-to-face psychotherapeutic interventions and pharmacotherapy. (Trial Registration Number: ACTRN1260900038623.)

On the efficacy of Fourier series approximations for pricing European options

This paper investigates several competing procedures for computing the prices of vanilla European options, such as puts, calls and binaries, in which the underlying model has a characteristic function that is known in semi-closed form. The algorithms investigated here are the half-range Fourier cosine series, the half-range Fourier sine series and the full-range Fourier series. Their performance is assessed in simulation experiments in which an analytical solution is available and also for a simple affine model of stochastic volatility in which there is no closed-form solution. The results suggest that the half-range sine series approximation is the least effective of the three proposed algorithms. It is rather more difficult to distinguish between the performance of the halfrange cosine series and the full-range Fourier series. However there are two clear differences. First, when the interval over which the density is approximated is relatively large, the full-range Fourier series is at least as good as the half-range Fourier cosine series, and outperforms the latter in pricing out-of-the-money call options, in particular with maturities of three months or less. Second, the computational time required by the half-range Fourier cosine series is uniformly longer than that required by the full-range Fourier series for an interval of fixed length. Taken together,these two conclusions make a case for pricing options using a full-range range Fourier series as opposed to a half-range Fourier cosine series if a large number of options are to be priced in as short a time as possible.

A controlled trial comparing the efficacy of rice-based and hypotonic glucose oral rehydration solutions in infants and young children with gastroenteritis

A prospective randomized trial was conducted to compare the efficacy of a rice-based oral rehydration solution (ORS) with glucose ORS in infants and children under 5 years of age with acute diarrhoea and mild to moderate dehydration (<10%). One hundred children presenting to a large metropolitan teaching hospital were eligible for entry to the study and were randomized to receive rice ORS or glucose ORS. Outcome measures were stool output (SO), duration of illness (DD) and recovery time to introduction of other fluids (RTF) and diet (RTD). Significant differences were found for all outcome measures in favour of the rice ORS group. Mean SO was lower (160 vs 213 mt; P<0.02), mean DD was reduced (17.3 vs 24.3 h; P = 0.03) and median RTF was decreased (12.7 vs 18.1 h; P< 0.001) in the rice ORS group compared with the glucose ORS group. The median rime to introduction of diet and mean length of hospital stay showed similar significant reductions. Our study has shown rice ORS to be an acceptable alternative to glucose ORS in young children and have shown that it is significantly more effective in reducing the course of diarrhoeal illness and the time taken to return to normal drinking and eating habits.

Colonoscopy preparation in children: Safety, efficacy, and tolerance of high- versus low-volume cleansing methods

Background: The use of large-volume electrolyte balanced solutions as preparation for colonoscopy often results in poor patient compliance and acceptance. The tolerance, safety, and efficacy of high-versus low volume colon-cleansing methods as preparation for colonoscopy in children were compared by randomized operator-blinded trial. Methods: Twenty-nine children ages 3.6-14.6 years had either high-volume nasogastric balanced polyethylene glycol electrolyte lavage (20 ml/kg/h) until the effluent was clear (n = 15), or two oral doses of sodium phosphate solution (22.5-45 ml) separated by oral fluid intake (n = 14). Results: Both preparations were equally effective. The low-volume preparation was better tolerated and caused less discomfort that the high-volume preparation, judging by serial nurse observations. The incidence of abdominal symptoms, diarrhea, sleep disturbance, and vomiting was not significantly different between the two groups. Both groups had a small reduction in mean hematocrit and serum calcium levels. The sodium phosphate preparation caused increases in mean serum sodium concentrations from 140 to 145 mmol/L and serum phosphate concentrations from 1.41 to 2.53 mmol/L. Ten hours after the commencement of the preanesthetic fast, these concentrations had returned to normal. Conclusions: There are advantages in terms of tolerance, discomfort, and case of administration with acceptable colonic cleansing with the use of the less-invasive oral sodium phosphate low-volume colon-cleansing preparation in children. Safe use requires ensuring an adequate oral fluid intake during the preparation time and avoidance of use in patients with renal insufficiency.

Osmolality electrolyte and carbohydrate type and oral rehydration solutions: A controlled study to compare the efficacy of two commercially available solutions (osmolalities 240 mmol/L and 340 mmol/L)

An open-label, inpatient study was undertaken to compare the efficacy of two oral rehydration solutions (ORS) given randomly to children aged 1-10 years who had acute gastroenteritis with mild or moderate dehydration (n = 45). One solution contained 60 mmol/L sodium and 1.8% glucose, total osmolality 240 mosm/l (gastrolyte, Rhone-poulenc, Rorer) and the other contained 26 mmol/l sodium, 2.7% glucose and 3.6% sucrose, total osmolality 340 mOsm/l (Glucolyte, Gilseal). Analysis of data indicated that Gastrolyte therapy resulted in significantly fewer episodes and volume of vomiting over all time periods in comparison to Glucolyte and significantly less stool volume during the first 8 h and in the 0-24 h period. The differences between treatments in degree of dehydration at each follow-up period, duration of diarrhea, and duration of hospital stay were not significant. No adverse drug reactions occurred. Six patients received intravenous rehydration treatment and were considered treatment failures. We conclude that oral rehydration therapy is safe and efficacious in the management of dehydration in acute diarrhoea and that the lower osmolar rehydration solution has clinically marginal advantages.

PW376 A pilot study of a post-discharge nurse-led, educational intervention on cardiac self-efficacy and anxiety in post-PCI patients

Introduction Hospitalisation for percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is often short, with limited nurse-teaching time and poor information absorption. Currently, patients are discharged home only to wait up to 4-8 weeks to commence a secondary prevention program and visit their cardiologist. This wait is an anxious time for patients and confidence or self-efficacy (SE) to self-manage may be low. Objectives To determine the effects of a nurse-led, educational intervention on participant SE and anxiety in the early post-discharge period. Methods A pilot study was undertaken as a randomised controlled clinical trial. Thirty-three participants were recruited, with n=13 randomised to the intervention group. A face-to-face, nurse-led, educational intervention was undertaken within the first 5-7 days post-discharge. Intervention group participants received standard post-discharge education, physical assessment, with a strong focus on the emotional impact of cardiovascular events and PCI. Early reiteration of post-discharge education was offered, along with health professional support with the aim to increase patients’ SE and to effectively manage their post-discharge health and well being, as well as anxieties. Self-efficacy to return to normal activities was measured to gauge participants’ abilities to manage post-PCI after attending the intervention using the cardiac self-efficacy (CSE) scale. State and trait anxiety was also measured using the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI) to determine if an increase in SE would influence participant anxiety. Results There were some increases in mean CSE scores in the intervention group participants over time. Areas of increase included return to normal social activities and confidence to change diet. Although reductions were observed in mean state and trait anxiety scores in both groups, an overall larger reduction in intervention group participants was observed over time. Conclusion It is essential that patients are given the education, support, and skills to self-manage in the early post-discharge period so that they have greater SE and are less anxious. This study provides some initial evidence that nurse-led support and education during this period, particularly the first week following PCI, is beneficial and could be trialled using alternate modes of communication to support remote and rural PCI patients and extend to other cardiovascular patients.

Effect of fumigation temperature on the efficacy of phosphine against strongly resistant psocids liposcelis bostrychophila (Pscodoptera: Liposcelididae)

Species of Liposcelis psocids have emerged as major pests of stored grain in Australia in recent years. Several populations have been detected with high resistance to phosphine, the major chemical treatment. Highest resistance has been detected in the cosmopolitan species Liposcelis bostrychophila. As part of a national resistance management strategy to maintain the viability of phosphine, we are developing minimum effective dosage regimes (concentration x time) required to control all life stages of resistant L. bostrychophila at a range of grain temperatures. Four concentrations of phosphine, 0.1, 0.17, 0.3 aid 1 mg/L, were evaluated for their effectiveness against strongly resistant L. bostrychophila at a series of fumigation temperatures: 20, 25, 30 and 35°C. Results were recorded as the least number of days taken to achieve population extinction. We found that, at any fixed concentration of phosphine, time to population extinction decreased as fumigation temperature increased from 20 to 30°C. For example, at 0.1 mg/L, it took more than 14 days at 20°C to completely control these insects, whereas at 30°C it took only seven days. Increase in fumigation temperature from 25OC to 30°C dramatically reduced the exposure period needed to achieve population extinction of resistant psocids. For example, a dose of 0.17 mg/L over six days at 30°C completely controlled strongly resistant L. bostrychophila populations that can survive at 1 mg/L and 25°C over the same exposure period. Findings from our study will be used to formulate recommendations for registered dosage rates and fumigation periods for use in Australia.

Efficacy of multispecies pheromone lures for Carpophilus davidsoni Dobson and Carpophilus mutilatus Erichson (Coleoptera: Nitidulidae)

Orchard experiments were conducted in southern New South Wales to evaluate the efficacy of multispecies pheromone lures in trapping two economically important species of Carpophilus. Captures of Carpophilus davidsoni Dobson and Carpophilus mutilatus Erichson in traps baited with aggregation pheromones of both species or a three-way lure that also included the pheromone of Carpophilus hemipterus (L.) were not significantly different from captures in traps baited with conspecific pheromones. Carpophilus davidsoni and C. mutilatus were cross-attracted to traps baited with the pheromone of the other species, but numbers were significantly reduced compared with traps baited with conspecific or heterospecific pheromones. Multispecies lures will improve prospects for the commercial use of synthetic aggregation pheromones in Carpophilus beetle management in stone-fruit orchards.

The vaccination-challenge trial: the gold standard test to evaluate the protective efficacy of infectious coryza vaccines

Infectious coryza is an upper respiratory tract disease of chickens with the major impact occurring in multi-age flocks. We investigated the relationship between the level of antibodies, as detected by a haemagglutination-inhibition (HI) assay, in infectious coryza-vaccinated chickens and the protection against challenge in those chickens. In one experiment, chickens given a single dose of either of two infectious coryza vaccines lacked a detectable HI response to vaccination but showed significant levels of protection 11 weeks after vaccination. In contrast, in chickens given two doses of an infectious coryza vaccine and challenged 3 weeks after the second vaccine dose, there was a strong serological response with 36/40 birds having a HI titre of 1/20 or greater. In this trial there was an apparent relationship between titre and subsequent protection, with none of the 32 chickens with a titre of 1/40 or 1/80 showing any clinical signs and only one of the same group yielding the challenge organism on culture. In contrast, three of the four vaccinated chickens with a HI titre less than 1/5 developed the typical clinical signs of coryza and yielded the challenge organism on culture. Overall, our results suggest that HI titres cannot be regarded as a definitive predictor of vaccine efficacy. We suggest that the vaccination-challenge trial is the gold standard for the evaluation of the immune response to infectious coryza vaccines.

Impact of resistance on the efficacy of binary combinations of spinosad, chlorpyrifos-methyl and s-methoprene against five stored-grain beetles

Laboratory experiments were conducted to determine the efficacy of spinosad (a biopesticide), chlorpyrifos-methyl (an organophosphorus compound (OP)) and s-methoprene (a juvenile hormone analogue) applied alone and in binary combinations against five stored-grain beetles in wheat. There were three strains of Rhyzopertha dominica, and one strain each of Sitophilus oryzae, Tribolium castaneum, Oryzaephilus surinamensis and Cryptolestes ferrugineus. These strains were chosen to represent a range of possible resistant genotypes, exhibiting resistance to organophosphates, pyrethroids or methoprene. Treatments were applied at rates that are registered or likely to be registered in Australia. Adults were exposed to freshly treated wheat for 2 weeks, and the effects of treatments on mortality and reproduction were determined. No single protectant or protectant combination controlled all insect strains, based on the criterion of >99% reduction in the number of live F1 adults relative to the control. The most effective combinations were spinosad at 1 mg kg-1+chlorpyrifos-methyl at 10 mg kg-1 which controlled all strains except for OP-resistant O. surinamensis, and chlorpyrifos-methyl at 10 mg kg-1+s-methoprene at 0.6 mg kg-1 which controlled all strains except for methoprene-resistant R. dominica. The results of this study demonstrate the difficulty in Australia, and potentially other countries which use protectants, of finding protectant treatments to control a broad range of pest species in the face of resistance development.