Culicidae (Diptera, Culicomorpha) from the western Brazilian Amazon: Juami-Japurá Ecological Station

With 312 trap-hours of sampling effort, 1554 specimens of Culicidae (Diptera) were collected, using CDC and Malaise traps, in nine different locations along the Juami River, within the Juami-Japurá Ecological Station, Amazonas State, Brazil. A list of mosquito species with 54 taxa is presented, which includes three new distributional records for the state of Amazonas. The species found belong to the genera Anopheles, Aedeomyia, Aedes, Psorophora, Culex, Coquillettidia, Sabethes, Wyeomyia and Uranotaenia.

Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models

n the last two decades, interest in species distribution models (SDMs) of plants and animals has grown dramatically. Recent advances in SDMs allow us to potentially forecast anthropogenic effects on patterns of biodiversity at different spatial scales. However, some limitations still preclude the use of SDMs in many theoretical and practical applications. Here, we provide an overview of recent advances in this field, discuss the ecological principles and assumptions underpinning SDMs, and highlight critical limitations and decisions inherent in the construction and evaluation of SDMs. Particular emphasis is given to the use of SDMs for the assessment of climate change impacts and conservation management issues. We suggest new avenues for incorporating species migration, population dynamics, biotic interactions and community ecology into SDMs at multiple spatial scales. Addressing all these issues requires a better integration of SDMs with ecological theory.

Understanding the ecological niche to elucidate spatial strategies of the southernmost Tupinambis lizards

Understanding factors that shape ranges of species is central in evolutionary biology. Species distribution models have become important tools to test biogeographical, ecological and evolutionary hypotheses. Moreover, from an ecological and evolutionary perspective, these models help to elucidate the spatial strategies of species at a regional scale. We modelled species distributions of two phylogenetically, geographically and ecologically close Tupinambis species (Teiidae) that occupy the southernmost area of the genus distribution in South America. We hypothesized that similarities between these species might have induced spatial strategies at the species level, such as niche differentiation and divergence of distribution patterns at a regional scale. Using logistic regression and MaxEnt we obtained species distribution models that revealed interspecific differences in habitat requirements, such as environmental temperature, precipitation and altitude. Moreover, the models obtained suggest that although the ecological niches of Tupinambis merianae and T. rufescens are different, these species might co-occur in a large contact zone. We propose that niche plasticity could be the mechanism enabling their co-occurrence. Therefore, the approach used here allowed us to understand the spatial strategies of two Tupinambis lizards at a regional scale.

MIGCLIM: Predicting plant distribution and dispersal in a changing climate

Many studies have forecasted the possible impact of climate change on plant distribution using models based on ecological niche theory. In their basic implementation, niche-based models do not constrain predictions by dispersal limitations. Hence, most niche-based modelling studies published so far have assumed dispersal to be either unlimited or null. However, depending on the rate of climatic change, the landscape fragmentation and the dispersal capabilities of individual species, these assumptions are likely to prove inaccurate, leading to under- or overestimation of future species distributions and yielding large uncertainty between these two extremes. As a result, the concepts of "potentially suitable" and "potentially colonisable" habitat are expected to differ significantly. To quantify to what extent these two concepts can differ, we developed MIGCLIM, a model simulating plant dispersal under climate change and landscape fragmentation scenarios. MIGCLIM implements various parameters, such as dispersal distance, increase in reproductive potential over time, barriers to dispersal or long distance dispersal. Several simulations were run for two virtual species in a study area of the western Swiss Alps, by varying dispersal distance and other parameters. Each simulation covered the hundred-year period 2001-2100 and three different IPCC-based temperature warming scenarios were considered. Our results indicate that: (i) using realistic parameter values, the future potential distributions generated using MIGCLIM can differ significantly (up to more than 95% decrease in colonized surface) from those that ignore dispersal; (ii) this divergence increases both with increasing climate warming and over longer time periods; (iii) the uncertainty associated with the warming scenario can be nearly as large as the one related to dispersal parameters; (iv) accounting for dispersal, even roughly, can importantly reduce uncertainty in projections.

Improving the prediction of plant species distribution and community composition by adding edaphic to topo-climatic variables

Questions Soil properties have been widely shown to influence plant growth and distribution. However, the degree to which edaphic variables can improve models based on topo-climatic variables is still unclear. In this study, we tested the roles of seven edaphic variables, namely (1) pH; (2) the content of nitrogen and of (3) phosphorus; (4) silt; (5) sand; (6) clay and (7) carbon-to-nitrogen ratio, as predictors of species distribution models in an edaphically heterogeneous landscape. We also tested how the respective influence of these variables in the models is linked to different ecological and functional species characteristics. Location The Western Alps, Switzerland. Methods With four different modelling techniques, we built models for 115 plant species using topo-climatic variables alone and then topo-climatic variables plus each of the seven edaphic variables, one at a time. We evaluated the contribution of each edaphic variable by assessing the change in predictive power of the model. In a second step, we evaluated the importance of the two edaphic variables that yielded the largest increase in predictive power in one final set of models for each species. Third, we explored the change in predictive power and the importance of variables across plant functional groups. Finally, we assessed the influence of the edaphic predictors on the prediction of community composition by stacking the models for all species and comparing the predicted communities with the observed community. Results Among the set of edaphic variables studied, pH and nitrogen content showed the highest contributions to improvement of the predictive power of the models, as well as the predictions of community composition. When considering all topo-climatic and edaphic variables together, pH was the second most important variable after degree-days. The changes in model results caused by edaphic predictors were dependent on species characteristics. The predictions for the species that have a low specific leaf area, and acidophilic preferences, tolerating low soil pH and high humus content, showed the largest improvement by the addition of pH and nitrogen in the model. Conclusions pH was an important predictor variable for explaining species distribution and community composition of the mountain plants considered in our study. pH allowed more precise predictions for acidophilic species. This variable should not be neglected in the construction of species distribution models in areas with contrasting edaphic conditions.

Pattern recognition ecological niche models fit to presence-only and presence-absence data

1. Identifying the boundary of a species' niche from observational and environmental data is a common problem in ecology and conservation biology and a variety of techniques have been developed or applied to model niches and predict distributions. Here, we examine the performance of some pattern-recognition methods as ecological niche models (ENMs). Particularly, one-class pattern recognition is a flexible and seldom used methodology for modelling ecological niches and distributions from presence-only data. The development of one-class methods that perform comparably to two-class methods (for presence/absence data) would remove modelling decisions about sampling pseudo-absences or background data points when absence points are unavailable. 2. We studied nine methods for one-class classification and seven methods for two-class classification (five common to both), all primarily used in pattern recognition and therefore not common in species distribution and ecological niche modelling, across a set of 106 mountain plant species for which presence-absence data was available. We assessed accuracy using standard metrics and compared trade-offs in omission and commission errors between classification groups as well as effects of prevalence and spatial autocorrelation on accuracy. 3. One-class models fit to presence-only data were comparable to two-class models fit to presence-absence data when performance was evaluated with a measure weighting omission and commission errors equally. One-class models were superior for reducing omission errors (i.e. yielding higher sensitivity), and two-classes models were superior for reducing commission errors (i.e. yielding higher specificity). For these methods, spatial autocorrelation was only influential when prevalence was low. 4. These results differ from previous efforts to evaluate alternative modelling approaches to build ENM and are particularly noteworthy because data are from exhaustively sampled populations minimizing false absence records. Accurate, transferable models of species' ecological niches and distributions are needed to advance ecological research and are crucial for effective environmental planning and conservation; the pattern-recognition approaches studied here show good potential for future modelling studies. This study also provides an introduction to promising methods for ecological modelling inherited from the pattern-recognition discipline.

Landscape structure affects dispersal in the greater white-toothed shrew: inference between genetic and simulated ecological distances

Animal dispersal in a fragmented landscape depends on the complex interaction between landscape structure and animal behavior. To better understand how individuals disperse, it is important to explicitly represent the properties of organisms and the landscape in which they move. A common approach to modelling dispersal includes representing the landscape as a grid of equal sized cells and then simulating individual movement as a correlated random walk. This approach uses a priori scale of resolution, which limits the representation of all landscape features and how different dispersal abilities are modelled. We develop a vector-based landscape model coupled with an object-oriented model for animal dispersal. In this spatially explicit dispersal model, landscape features are defined based on their geographic and thematic properties and dispersal is modelled through consideration of an organism's behavior, movement rules and searching strategies (such as visual cues). We present the model's underlying concepts, its ability to adequately represent landscape features and provide simulation of dispersal according to different dispersal abilities. We demonstrate the potential of the model by simulating two virtual species in a real Swiss landscape. This illustrates the model's ability to simulate complex dispersal processes and provides information about dispersal such as colonization probability and spatial distribution of the organism's path

Predicting potential distribution of the jaguar (Panthera onca) in Mexico: identification of priority areas for conservation

Aim The jaguar, Panthera onca, is a species of global conservation concern. In Mexico, the northernmost part of its distribution range, its conservation status, is particularly critical, while its potential and actual distribution is poorly known. We propose an ensemble model (EM) of the potential distribution for the jaguar in Mexico and identify the priority areas for conservation.Location Mexico.Methods We generated our EM based on three presence-only methods (Ecological Niche Factor Analysis, Mahalanobis distance, Maxent) and considering environmental, biological and anthropogenic factors. We used this model to evaluate the efficacy of the existing Mexican protected areas (PAs), to evaluate the adequacy of the jaguar conservation units (JCUs) and to propose new areas that should be considered for conservation and management of the species in Mexico.Results Our results outline that 16% of Mexico (c. 312,000 km2) can be considered as suitable for the presence of the jaguar. Furthermore, 13% of the suitable areas are included in existing PAs and 14% are included in JCUs (Sanderson et al., 2002).Main conclusions Clearly much more should be carried out to establish a proactive conservation strategy. Based on our results, we propose here new jaguar conservation and management areas that are important for a nationwide conservation blueprint.

Ecological and historical drivers of diversification in the fly genus Chiastocheta Pokorny.

Coevolution is among the main forces shaping the biodiversity on Earth. In Eurasia, one of the best-known plant-insect interactions showing highly coevolved features involves the fly genus Chiastocheta and its host-plant Trollius. Although this system has been widely studied from an ecological point of view, the phylogenetic relationships and biogeographic history of the flies have remained little investigated. In this integrative study, we aim to test the monophyly of the five Chiastocheta eco-morphological groups, defined by Pellmyr in 1992, by inferring a mitochondrial phylogeny. We further apply a new approach to assess the effect of (i) different molecular substitution rates and (ii) phylogenetic uncertainty on the inference of the spatio-temporal evolution of the group. From a taxonomic point of view, we demonstrate that only two of Pellmyr's groups (rotundiventris and dentifera) are phylogenetically supported, the other species appearing para- or polyphyletic. We also identify the position of C. lophota, which was not included in previous surveys. From a spatio-temporal perspective, we show that the genus arose during the Pliocene in Europe. Our results also indicate that at least four large-scale dispersal events are required to explain the current distribution of Chiastocheta. Moreover, each dispersal to or from Asia is associated with a host-shift and seems to correspond to an increase in speciation rates. Finally, we highlight the correlation between diversification and climatic fluctuations, which indicate that the cycles of global cooling over the last million years had an influence on the radiation of the group.

Characterising avian haemosporidian communities : ecological factors, parasite persistence and co-infection

Les parasites jouent un rôle clef dans l'évolution des comportements et des traits d'histoire de vie de leurs hôtes. Le parasitisme s'avère parfois dévastateur à l'échelle de population d'hôtes, et peut également altérer certains traits associés à la valeur sélective d'un individu infecté, tels que son succès reproducteur ou encore son taux de mortalité. La coévolution hôte/parasite, qui représente l'une des forces sélectives les plus puissantes dans l'évolution des organismes, peut également conduire les partenaires de l'association parasitaire à s'adapter localement à des environnements hétérogènes. Cette thèse porte sur l'étude de parasites aviaires, du genre Plasmodium, Haemopro- teus et Leucocytozoon (Haemosporidae), naturellement associés à différentes populations de mésanges charbonnières (Parus major) et d'hirondelles des fenêtres (Delichon ur- bicum). Dans un premier temps, nous avons cherché à déterminer comment se distribuent ces parasites au sein de différentes populations hôtes et si ces communautés de parasites sont structurées. Par la suite, la principale question à laquelle nous voulions répondre était de savoir comment ces parasites, et notamment après coexistence de plusieurs lignées génétiques d'Haemosporidae au sein dun même-individu (i.e. co-infection), affectent la physiologie et le succès de reproducteur des hôtes. Nos résultats suggèrent que la distribution des Haemosporidae est principalement gouvernée par la présence d'insectes vecteurs et que la persistance de l'infection chez les hôtes varie en fonction du genre d'Haemosporidae (Chapitre 1-2). Par ailleurs, nous avons trouvé que des lignées de parasite génétiquement distinctes peuvent avoir des effets contrastés sur leurs hôtes. Par exemple, les hôtes exhibent des différences de parasitémie marquées en fonction des lignées de parasites responsable de l'infection. De plus, le succès reproducteur ainsi que la charge parasitaire des mésanges infectées par Plasmodium ou Haemoproteus n'étaient pas affecté par l'infection simultanée avec Leucocytozoon (Chapitre 2-3). Dans le Chapitre 4, j'ai examiné la capacité immunitaire de mésanges charbonnières infectées par des hémosporidies. Les résultats n'ont pas été concluant, et je suggère fortement une réévaluation de ceux-ci dans de futures études. Les mésanges charbonnières ne semblent pas signaler leur statut infectieux par la coloration de leur plumage (Chapitre 5); toutefois, la coloration noire des plumes reflète l'état de stress oxydatif des mésanges, qui dépend lui-même de l'infection parasitaire. La coloration verte pourrait également indiquer la qualité des soins paxentaux délivrés par les mésanges adultes femelles à leurs petits, comme le suggère la corrélation que nous avons observée entre la masse des jeunes d'une nichée et la coloration de leur mère. Les hirondelles capturées en Algérie souffrent plus de l'infection que celles échantillon¬nées en Europe (Chapitre 6). Les similitudes observées entre les communautés de par¬asites affectant les populations européennes et celles des populations nord-africaines suggèrent que la transmission des parasites a lieu lors de la migration vers le sud. A l'instar de nos observations sur les mésanges dans les chapitres 2 et 3, les hirondelles co-infectées ne montrent pas d'altérations de leur condition physique. Cette thèse démontre qu'il existe, au sein des populations de mésanges charbonnières, des interactions antagonistes entre, d'une part, les parasites et leurs hôtes et d'autre part, entre différent parasites. Le résultat de ces interactions antagonistes varie en fonction des espèces et de la zone géographique considérée. Nous avons démontré que les interactions ne suivent pas toujours la théorie, puisque la coevolution qui, en suivant le concept de la virulence, devrait augmenter la charge parasitaire et diminuer la condition physique des hôtes, ne montre pourtant pas d'impact négatif sur les populations de mésanges. Nous pouvons maintenant concentrer nos efforts à la caractérisation des interactions antagonistes. De plus, grâce aux avancées des méthodes moléculaires, nous pouvons suivre et étudier en détails comment ces interactions se manifestent et quels sont leurs effets sur la condition physique des hôtes. - Parasites are key in shaping various behavioural and life-history traits of their hosts. The influence of parasitism on host populations varies from slight to devastating and might influence such parameters as mortality rates or reproductive success. Host-parasite coevolution is one of the most powerful selective forces in evolution and can lead to local adaptation of parasites and hosts in spatially structured environments. In this thesis, I studied haemosporidian parasites in different populations of great tits (Parus major) and house martins (Delichon urbicum). Firstly, I wanted to determine how parasites are distributed and if parasite communities are structured. The main question I wanted to address hereafter was how parasites, and specifically infection with multiple genera of parasites (i.e. co-infection) influenced host physiology and reproductive success. I found that parasite distribution is environmentally driven and could therefore be closely linked to vector prevalence; and that the stability of parasite infection over time is genus-dependent (Chapter 1 - 2). I further found that different haemosporidian lineages might interact differently with their hosts as parasitaemia was strongly lineage-specific and that the presence of Leucocytozoon parasites showed no correlation to Plasmodium or Haemoproteus parasitaemia, nor to great tit reproductive success (Chapter 2-3). In Chapter 4 I examined immune capacity of haemosporidian-infected great tits. The results proved inconclusive, and I strongly suggest re-evaluation hereof in future work. Great tits do not appear to signal parasite infection through plumage colouration (Chapter 5); however, infection did have a link to oxidative stress resistance which is strongly signalled through the black breast stripe, with darker males being more resistant and darker females less resistant. Females might incur different costs associated with darker stripes. This would allow reversal of signaling function. Green colouration could also serve as a cue for female provisioning quality as indicated by the strong correlation between colouration and chick body mass. Breeding house martins caught in Algeria suffer greater haemosporidian infection than European populations (Chapter 6). Similar parasite communities in European and North-African populations suggest transmission of parasites may occur during southward migration. Similarly to what was observed in great tits in Chapter 2 and 3, no relationship was found between parasite co-infection and Swiss house martin body condition. This thesis demonstrates that host-parasite and inter-parasite antagonistic interac¬tions exist in great tit populations. How these interactions play out is species dependent and varies geographically. I have demonstrated that interactions do not always follow the theory, as co-infection - which under the concept of virulence should increase parasitaemia and decrease body condition - showed no negative impact on great tit populations. We can now concentrate our efforts on characterising these antagonistic interactions, and with the advance in molecular methods, track and investigate how these interactions play out and what the effect on host fitness is.

The ecological significance of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal effects on clonal reproduction in plants

The population ecology of clonal plants depends on the number and distribution of ramets formed during growth. Variation in clonal reproduction has previously been explained by variation in effects of abiotic resource heterogeneity and by plant genotypic variation. Different co-occurring species of the mutualistic arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) have been shown to differentially alter growth traits of Prunella vulgaris which we hypothesize would lead to changes in clonal reproduction. Two experiments were carried out to test whether different co-occurring mycorrhizal fungi significantly influence clonal reproduction of P. vulgaris whether this effect also occurs when P. vulgaris is growing in an artificial plant community and how the effects compare with plant genotype effects on clonal growth of P. vulgaris. In the first experiment the number of ramets of P. vulgaris growing in a plant community of simulated calcareous grassland was significantly affected by inoculation with different mycorrhizal fungi. The number of ramets produced by P. vulgaris differed by a factor of up to 1.8 with different mycorrhizal fungi. The fungal effects on the number of new ramets were independent of their effects on the biomass of P. vulgaris. In a second experiment 17 different genotypes of P. vulgaris were inoculated with different mycorrhizal fungi. There were significant main effects of genotypes and mycorrhizal fungi on clonal reproduction of P. vulgaris. The effect of different mycorrhizal fungi contributed more than the effect of plant genotype to variation in size and ramet production. However mean stolon length and spacer length which determine the spatial arrangement of ramets were only significantly affected by plant genotype. There were no mycorrhizal fungal X plant genotype interactions on clonal growth of P. vulgaris indicating that there is no obvious evidence that selection pressures would favor further coevolution between P. vulgaris and mycorrhizal fungal species. In natural communities plants can be colonized by several different AMF at the same time. The effect of the mixed AMF treatment on the growth and clonal reproduction of P. vulgaris could not be predicted from the responses of the plants to the single AMF To what extent however the patterns of colonization by different AMF differ among plants in a natural community is unknown. Since the effects of AMF on growth and clonal reproduction occur on a population of P. vulgaris in a microcosm plant community and because the effects are also as great as those caused by plant genotypic variation we conclude that the effects are strong enough to potentially affect population size and variation of clonal plants in communities.

Niche, distribution and global change : modeling insights into biogeography and conservation biology Olivier Broennimann

RESUME Les évidences montrant que les changements globaux affectent la biodiversité s'accumulent. Les facteurs les plus influant dans ce processus sont les changements et destructions d'habitat, l'expansion des espèces envahissantes et l'impact des changements climatiques. Une évaluation pertinente de la réponse des espèces face à ces changements est essentielle pour proposer des mesures permettant de réduire le déclin actuel de la biodiversité. La modélisation de la répartition d'espèces basée sur la niche (NBM) est l'un des rares outils permettant cette évaluation. Néanmoins, leur application dans le contexte des changements globaux repose sur des hypothèses restrictives et demande une interprétation critique. Ce travail présente une série d'études de cas investiguant les possibilités et limitations de cette approche pour prédire l'impact des changements globaux. Deux études traitant des menaces sur les espèces rares et en danger d'extinction sont présentées. Les caractéristiques éco-géographiques de 118 plantes avec un haut degré de priorité de conservation sont revues. La prévalence des types de rareté sont analysées en relation avec leur risque d'extinction UICN. La revue souligne l'importance de la conservation à l'échelle régionale. Une évaluation de la rareté à échelle globale peut être trompeuse pour certaine espèces car elle ne tient pas en compte des différents degrés de rareté que présente une espèce à différentes échelles spatiales. La deuxième étude test une approche pour améliorer l'échantillonnage d'espèces rares en incluant des phases itératives de modélisation et d'échantillonnage sur le terrain. L'application de l'approche en biologie de la conservation (illustrée ici par le cas du chardon bleu, Eryngium alpinum), permettrait de réduire le temps et les coûts d'échantillonnage. Deux études sur l'impact des changements climatiques sur la faune et la flore africaine sont présentées. La première étude évalue la sensibilité de 227 mammifères africains face aux climatiques d'ici 2050. Elle montre qu'un nombre important d'espèces pourrait être bientôt en danger d'extinction et que les parcs nationaux africains (principalement ceux situé en milieux xériques) pourraient ne pas remplir leur mandat de protection de la biodiversité dans le futur. La seconde étude modélise l'aire de répartition en 2050 de 975 espèces de plantes endémiques du sud de l'Afrique. L'étude propose l'inclusion de méthodes améliorant la prédiction des risques liés aux changements climatiques. Elle propose également une méthode pour estimer a priori la sensibilité d'une espèce aux changements climatiques à partir de ses propriétés écologiques et des caractéristiques de son aire de répartition. Trois études illustrent l'utilisation des modèles dans l'étude des invasions biologiques. Une première étude relate l'expansion de la laitue sáuvage (Lactuca serriola) vers le nord de l'Europe en lien avec les changements du climat depuis 250 ans. La deuxième étude analyse le potentiel d'invasion de la centaurée tachetée (Centaures maculosa), une mauvaise herbe importée en Amérique du nord vers 1890. L'étude apporte la preuve qu'une espèce envahissante peut occuper une niche climatique différente après introduction sur un autre continent. Les modèles basés sur l'aire native prédisent de manière incorrecte l'entier de l'aire envahie mais permettent de prévoir les aires d'introductions potentielles. Une méthode alternative, incluant la calibration du modèle à partir des deux aires où l'espèce est présente, est proposée pour améliorer les prédictions de l'invasion en Amérique du nord. Je présente finalement une revue de la littérature sur la dynamique de la niche écologique dans le temps et l'espace. Elle synthétise les récents développements théoriques concernant le conservatisme de la niche et propose des solutions pour améliorer la pertinence des prédictions d'impact des changements climatiques et des invasions biologiques. SUMMARY Evidences are accumulating that biodiversity is facing the effects of global change. The most influential drivers of change in ecosystems are land-use change, alien species invasions and climate change impacts. Accurate projections of species' responses to these changes are needed to propose mitigation measures to slow down the on-going erosion of biodiversity. Niche-based models (NBM) currently represent one of the only tools for such projections. However, their application in the context of global changes relies on restrictive assumptions, calling for cautious interpretations. In this thesis I aim to assess the effectiveness and shortcomings of niche-based models for the study of global change impacts on biodiversity through the investigation of specific, unsolved limitations and suggestion of new approaches. Two studies investigating threats to rare and endangered plants are presented. I review the ecogeographic characteristic of 118 endangered plants with high conservation priority in Switzerland. The prevalence of rarity types among plant species is analyzed in relation to IUCN extinction risks. The review underlines the importance of regional vs. global conservation and shows that a global assessment of rarity might be misleading for some species because it can fail to account for different degrees of rarity at a variety of spatial scales. The second study tests a modeling framework including iterative steps of modeling and field surveys to improve the sampling of rare species. The approach is illustrated with a rare alpine plant, Eryngium alpinum and shows promise for complementing conservation practices and reducing sampling costs. Two studies illustrate the impacts of climate change on African taxa. The first one assesses the sensitivity of 277 mammals at African scale to climate change by 2050 in terms of species richness and turnover. It shows that a substantial number of species could be critically endangered in the future. National parks situated in xeric ecosystems are not expected to meet their mandate of protecting current species diversity in the future. The second study model the distribution in 2050 of 975 endemic plant species in southern Africa. The study proposes the inclusion of new methodological insights improving the accuracy and ecological realism of predictions of global changes studies. It also investigates the possibility to estimate a priori the sensitivity of a species to climate change from the geographical distribution and ecological proprieties of the species. Three studies illustrate the application of NBM in the study of biological invasions. The first one investigates the Northwards expansion of Lactuca serriola L. in Europe during the last 250 years in relation with climate changes. In the last two decades, the species could not track climate change due to non climatic influences. A second study analyses the potential invasion extent of spotted knapweed, a European weed first introduced into North America in the 1890s. The study provides one of the first empirical evidence that an invasive species can occupy climatically distinct niche spaces following its introduction into a new area. Models fail to predict the current full extent of the invasion, but correctly predict areas of introduction. An alternative approach, involving the calibration of models with pooled data from both ranges, is proposed to improve predictions of the extent of invasion on models based solely on the native range. I finally present a review on the dynamic nature of ecological niches in space and time. It synthesizes the recent theoretical developments to the niche conservatism issues and proposes solutions to improve confidence in NBM predictions of the impacts of climate change and species invasions on species distributions.

Very high-resolution environmental predictors in species distribution models: moving beyond topography?

Recent advances in remote sensing technologies have facilitated the generation of very high resolution (VHR) environmental data. Exploratory studies suggested that, if used in species distribution models (SDMs), these data should enable modelling species' micro-habitats and allow improving predictions for fine-scale biodiversity management. In the present study, we tested the influence, in SDMs, of predictors derived from a VHR digital elevation model (DEM) by comparing the predictive power of models for 239 plant species and their assemblages fitted at six different resolutions in the Swiss Alps. We also tested whether changes of the model quality for a species is related to its functional and ecological characteristics. Refining the resolution only contributed to slight improvement of the models for more than half of the examined species, with the best results obtained at 5 m, but no significant improvement was observed, on average, across all species. Contrary to our expectations, we could not consistently correlate the changes in model performance with species characteristics such as vegetation height. Temperature, the most important variable in the SDMs across the different resolutions, did not contribute any substantial improvement. Our results suggest that improving resolution of topographic data only is not sufficient to improve SDM predictions - and therefore local management - compared to previously used resolutions (here 25 and 100 m). More effort should be dedicated now to conduct finer-scale in-situ environmental measurements (e.g. for temperature, moisture, snow) to obtain improved environmental measurements for fine-scale species mapping and management.

Symbiotic effectiveness and ecological characterization of indigenous Rhizobium loti populations in Uruguay

The objectives of this work were to describe the distribution, density and seasonal variation of the indigenous populations of Rhizobium loti in different Uruguayan soils and to determine the symbiotic effectiveness and stress tolerance factors of different isolates, both with the aim of obtaining selected strains to re-introduce as inoculants in Lotus pastures. R. loti was present in ten soils studied and their densities varied from year to year and within each soil. All the isolates nodulated Lotus corniculatus effectively. The nodules in Lotus pedunculatus and Lotus subbiflorus were small, red on the surface and ineffective in nitrogen fixation. The study of 50 isolates from the ten soils showed high variability in their symbiotic efficiency and tolerance to pH. The indigenous population was acid tolerant in culture medium (pH 4.5), 83% of them could grow at pH 4.5 in 3 days. This work showed that there was a great diversity between the strains of R. loti isolated from Uruguayan soils and supports the importance of selecting among them the most efficient and resistant strains to be included in the inoculants.

Integrating species distribution models (SDMs) and phylogeography for two species of Alpine Primula.

The major intention of the present study was to investigate whether an approach combining the use of niche-based palaeodistribution modeling and phylo-geography would support or modify hypotheses about the Quaternary distributional history derived from phylogeographic methods alone. Our study system comprised two closely related species of Alpine Primula. We used species distribution models based on the extant distribution of the species and last glacial maximum (LGM) climate models to predict the distribution of the two species during the LGM. Phylogeographic data were generated using amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLPs). In Primula hirsuta, models of past distribution and phylogeographic data are partly congruent and support the hypothesis of widespread nunatak survival in the Central Alps. Species distribution models (SDMs) allowed us to differentiate between alpine regions that harbor potential nunatak areas and regions that have been colonized from other areas. SDMs revealed that diversity is a good indicator for nunataks, while rarity is a good indicator for peripheral relict populations that were not source for the recolonization of the inner Alps. In P. daonensis, palaeo-distribution models and phylogeographic data are incongruent. Besides the uncertainty inherent to this type of modeling approach (e.g., relatively coarse 1-km grain size), disagreement of models and data may partly be caused by shifts of ecological niche in both species. Nevertheless, we demonstrate that the combination of palaeo-distribution modeling with phylogeographical approaches provides a more differentiated picture of the distributional history of species and partly supports (P. hirsuta) and partly modifies (P. daonensis and P. hirsuta) hypotheses of Quaternary distributional history. Some of the refugial area indicated by palaeodistribution models could not have been identified with phylogeographic data.