A Comparative Study of Central and Eastern European Social Policy Concernig Mental Disability

The main goal of this project was to identity whether an imported system of social policy can be suitable for a host country, and if not why not. Romanian social policy concerning the mentally disabled represents a paradoxical situation in that while social policy is designed to ensure both an institutional structure and a juridical environment, in practice it is far from successful. The central question which Ms. Ciumageanu asked therefore was whether this failure was due to systemic factors, or whether the problem lay in reworking an imported social policy system to meet local needs. She took a comparative approach, also considering both the Scandinavian model of social policy, particularly the Danish model which has been adopted in Romania, and the Hungarian system, which has inherited a similar universal welfare system and perpetuated it to some extent. In order to verify her hypothesis, she also studied the transformation of the welfare system in Great Britain, which meant a shift from state responsibility towards community care. In all these she concentrated on two major aspects: the structural design within the different countries and, at a micro level, the societal response. Following her analyses of the various in the other countries concerned, Ms. Ciumageanu concluded that the major differences lie first in the difference between the stages of policy design. Here Denmark is the most advanced and Romania the most backwards. Denmark has a fairly elaborate infrastructure, Britain a system with may gaps to bridge, and Hungary and Romania are struggling with severe difficulties owing both to the inherited structure and the limits imposed by an inadequate GDP. While in Denmark and Britain, mental patients are integrated into an elaborate system of care, designed and administered by the state (in Denmark) or communities (in Britain), in Hungary and Romania, the state designs and fails to implement the policy and community support is minimal, partly due to the lack of a fully developed civil society. At the micro level the differences are similar. While in Denmark and Britain there is a consensus about the roles of the state and of civil societies (although at different levels in the two countries, with the state being more supportive in Denmark), in Romania and to a considerable extent in Hungary, civil society tends to expect too much from the state, which in its turn is withdrawing faster from its social roles than from its economic ones, generating a gap between the welfare state and the market economy and disadvantaging the expected transition from a welfare state to a welfare society and, implicitly, the societal response towards those mentally disabled persons in it. On an intermediate level, the factors influencing social policy as a whole were much the same for Hungary and Romania. Economic factors include the accumulated economic resources of both state and citizens, and the inherited pattern of redistribution, as well as the infrastructure; institutional resources include the role of the state and the efficiency of the state bureaucracy, the strength and efficiency of the state apparatus, political stability and the complexity of political democratisation, the introduction of market institutions, the strength of civil society and civic sector institutions. From the standpoint of the societal response, some factors were common to all countries, particularly the historical context, the collective and institutional memories and established patterns of behaviour. In the specific case of Romania, general structural and environmental factors - industrialisation and forced urbanisation - have had a definite influence on family structure, values and behavioural patterns. The analysis of Romanian social policy revealed several causes for failure to date. The first was the instability of the policy and the failure to consider the structural network involved in developing it, rather than just the results obtained. The second was the failure to take into account the relationship between the individual and the group in all its aspects, followed by the lack of active assistance for prevention, re-socialisation or professional integration of persons with mental disabilities. Finally, the state fails to recognise its inability to support an expensive psychiatric enterprise and does not provide any incentive to the private sector. This creates tremendous social costs for both the state and the individual. NGOs working in the field in Romania have been somewhat more successful but are still limited by their lack of funding and personnel and the idea of a combined system is as yet utopian in the circumstances in the country.

The Constitutional-Judicial Control of the Legislative and Executive Powers in Central and Eastern European Countries

This project looked at the nature, contents, methods, means and legal and political effects of the influence that constitutional courts exercise upon the legislative and executive powers in the newly established democracies of Central and Eastern Europe. The basic hypothesis was that these courts work to provide a limitation of political power within the framework of the principal constitutional values and that they force the legislature and executive to exercise their powers and duties in strict accordance with the constitution. Following a study of the documentary sources, including primarily the relevant constitutional and statutory provisions and decisions of constitutional courts, Mr. Cvetkovski prepared a questionnaire on various aspects of the topics researched and sent it to the respective constitutional courts. A series of direct interviews with court officials in six of the ten countries then served to clarify a large number of questions relating to differences in procedures etc. that arose from the questionnaires. As a final stage, the findings were compared with those described in recent publications on constitutional control in general and in Central and Eastern Europe in particular. The study began by considering the constitutional and political environment of the constitutional courts' activities in controlling legislative and executive powers, which in all countries studied are based on the principles of the rule of law and the separation of powers. All courts are separate bodies with special status in terms of constitutional law and are independent of other political and judicial institutions. The range of matters within their jurisdiction is set by the constitution of the country in question but in all cases can be exercised only with the framework of procedural rules. This gives considerable significance to the question of who sets these rules and different countries have dealt with it in different ways. In some there is a special constitutional law with the same legal force as the constitution itself (Croatia), the majority of countries allow for regulation by an ordinary law, Macedonia gives the court the autonomy to create and change its own rules of procedure, while in Hungary the parliament fixes the rules on procedure at the suggestion of the constitutional court. The question of the appointment of constitutional judges was also considered and of the mechanisms for ensuring their impartiality and immunity. In the area of the courts' scope for providing normative control, considerable differences were found between the different countries. In some cases the courts' jurisdiction is limited to the normative acts of the respective parliaments, and there is generally no provision for challenging unconstitutional omissions by legislation and the executive. There are, however, some situations in which they may indirectly evaluate the constitutionality of legislative omissions, as when the constitution contains provision for a time limit on enacting legislation, when the parliament has made an omission in drafting a law which violates the constitutional provisions, or when a law grants favours to certain groups while excluding others, thereby violating the equal protection clause of the constitution. The control of constitutionality of normative acts can be either preventive or repressive, depending on whether it is implemented before or after the promulgation of the law or other enactment being challenged. In most countries in the region the constitutional courts provide only repressive control, although in Hungary and Poland the courts are competent to perform both preventive and repressive norm control, while in Romania the court's jurisdiction is limited to preventive norm control. Most countries are wary of vesting constitutional courts with preventive norm control because of the danger of their becoming too involved in the day-to-day political debate, but Mr. Cvetkovski points out certain advantages of such control. If combined with a short time limit it can provide early clarification of a constitutional issue, secondly it avoids the problems arising if a law that has been in force for some years is declared to be unconstitutional, and thirdly it may help preserve the prestige of the legislation. Its disadvantages include the difficulty of ascertaining the actual and potential consequences of a norm without the empirical experience of the administration and enforcement of the law, the desirability of a certain distance from the day-to-day arguments surrounding the political process of legislation, the possible effects of changing social and economic conditions, and the danger of placing obstacles in the way of rapid reactions to acute situations. In the case of repressive norm control, this can be either abstract or concrete. The former is initiated by the supreme state organs in order to protect abstract constitutional order and the latter is initiated by ordinary courts, administrative authorities or by individuals. Constitutional courts cannot directly oblige the legislature and executive to pass a new law and this remains a matter of legislative and executive political responsibility. In the case of Poland, the parliament even has the power to dismiss a constitutional court decision by a special majority of votes, which means that the last word lies with the legislature. As the current constitutions of Central and Eastern European countries are newly adopted and differ significantly from the previous ones, the courts' interpretative functions should ensure a degree of unification in the application of the constitution. Some countries (Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Russia) provide for the constitutional courts' decisions to have a binding role on the constitutions. While their decisions inevitably have an influence on the actions of public bodies, they do not set criteria for political behaviour, which depends rather on the overall political culture and traditions of the society. All constitutions except that of Belarus, provide for the courts to have jurisdiction over conflicts arising from the distribution of responsibilities between different organs and levels in the country, as well for impeachment procedures against the head of state, and for determining the constitutionality of political parties (except in Belarus, Hungary, Russia and Slovakia). All the constitutions studied guarantee individual rights and freedoms and most courts have jurisdiction over complaints of violation of these rights by the constitution. All courts also have some jurisdiction over international agreements and treaties, either directly (Belarus, Bulgaria and Hungary) before the treaty is ratified, or indirectly (Croatia, Czech Republic, Macedonia, Romania, Russia and Yugoslavia). In each country the question of who may initiate proceedings of norm control is of central importance and is usually regulated by the constitution itself. There are three main possibilities: statutory organs, normal courts and private individuals and the limitations on each of these is discussed in the report. Most courts are limited in their rights to institute ex officio a full-scale review of a point of law, and such rights as they do have rarely been used. In most countries courts' decisions do not have any binding force but must be approved by parliament or impose on parliament the obligation to bring the relevant law into conformity within a certain period. As a result, the courts' position is generally weaker than in other countries in Europe, with parliament remaining the supreme body. In the case of preventive norm control a finding of unconstitutionality may act to suspend the law and or to refer it back to the legislature, where in countries such as Romania it may even be overturned by a two-thirds majority. In repressive norm control a finding of unconstitutionality generally serves to take the relevant law out of legal force from the day of publication of the decision or from another date fixed by the court. If the law is annulled retrospectively this may or may not bring decisions of criminal courts under review, depending on the provisions laid down in the relevant constitution. In cases relating to conflicts of competencies the courts' decisions tend to be declaratory and so have a binding effect inter partes. In the case of a review of an individual act, decisions generally become effective primarily inter partes but is the individual act has been based on an unconstitutional generally binding normative act of the legislature or executive, the findings has quasi-legal effect as it automatically initiates special proceedings in which the law or other regulation is to be annulled or abrogated with effect erga omnes. This wards off further application of the law and thus further violations of individual constitutional rights, but also discourages further constitutional complaints against the same law. Thus the success of one individual's complaint extends to everyone else whose rights have equally been or might have been violated by the respective law. As the body whose act is repealed is obliged to adopt another act and in doing so is bound by the legal position of the constitutional court on the violation of constitutionally guaranteed freedoms and rights of the complainant, in this situation the decision of the constitutional court has the force of a precedent.

Comparative Czech and Polish Perspectives and Policies on the Eastern Enlargement of the EU and the Prominence of the German Factor

With the end of the Cold War, which for central and eastern Europe in many respects meant the real political end to the Second World War, Germany regained its central position in the region. The Federal Republic quickly established itself as a major political and economic partner for both the Czech Republic and Poland. More importantly, due to its support for the idea of EU and NATO enlargement. Germany also became the most active western advocate of the Czech and Polish 'return to Europe'. The question remains, however, of whether Germany's relations with Poland and the Czech Republic can mature into a close axis like that enjoyed between Paris and Bonn/Berlin, or whether they will continue to develop along the lines of 'strategic congruence' but 'emotional mistrust and reserve'. The research here looked at three aspects of this question. First it considered the idea of a link between perceptions of Germany and broader considerations of European integration in Poland and the Czech Republic and outlined the ways in which Germany has motivated Czech and Polish activities and policies on EU membership. The team then focused upon on-going Czech and Polish EU integration strategies and sought to identify the actual ways in which Germany's advocacy of EU enlargement in manifest in cooperation 'on the ground'. The group concluded by considering prospects for Czech/German and Polish/German cooperation in the context of the enlarged European Union.

VOLUME YIELDS OF SMALLHOLDER Eucalyptus grandis W. HILL EX MAIDEN STANDS IN EASTERN PARAGUAY

Smallholders in eastern Paraguay plant small stands of Eucalyptus grandis W. Hill ex Maiden intended for sale on the local market. Smallholders have been encouraged to plant E. grandis by local forestry extension agents who offer both forestry education and incentive programs. Smallholders who practice recommended forestry techniques geared towards growing large diameter trees of good form are financially rewarded by the local markets which desire saw log quality trees. The question was posed, are smallholders engaging in recommended silvicultural practices and producing reasonable volume yields? It was hypothesized that smallholders, having received forestry education and having financial incentives from the local market, would engage in silvicultural practices resulting in trees of good form and volume yields that were reasonable for the local climate and soil characteristics. Yield volume results from this study support this hypothesis. Mean volume yield was estimated at 70 cubic meters per hectare at age four and 225 cubic meters per hectare at age eight. These volume yields compare favorably to volume yields from other studies of E. grandis grown in similar climates, with similar stocking levels and site qualities.

"The State Starts from the Family": Peace and Harmony in Tajikistan's Eastern Pamirs

Based on anthropological fieldwork between 2008 and 2011, this article focuses on how people in Tajikistan's eastern Pamirs conceptualize well-being through the establishment of peace and harmony. An exploration of the interactional use of the terms ‘peace’ and ‘harmony’ in Kyrgyz and Tajik (tynchtyk, yntymak, tinji, and vahdat) makes manifest that the meanings of these terms are connected to the fields of ‘family’, ‘leadership’, and ‘state’. Basing their reasoning on the officially promoted analogy between family and state, people in the eastern Pamirs distinguish between social spaces that are related to well-being and those that are not. As a factor of distinction, and crucial to the establishment of peace and harmony, the moral quality of leadership plays an important role. Positive experiences of such leadership as balanced and morally pure are mainly identified and witnessed within families and neighbourhoods and only occasionally in state institutions. This discrepancy raises the question of where to locate boundaries between good and bad, moral and immoral, harmonious and conflictual. Thus, this article contributes not only to the study of local concepts of well-being in Central Asia but also to the study of local concepts of ‘ill-being’ which challenge them.

Dry grasslands of Central-Eastern and South-Eastern Europe shaped by environmental heterogeneity and human land use – Editorial to the 10th Dry Grassland Special Feature

Der diesjährige 10. Trockenrasen-Sonderteil von Tuexenia beginnt mit einem Bericht über die aktuellen Aktivitäten der European Dry Grassland Group (EDGG). Zunächst geben wir einen Überblick über die Entwicklung der Mitgliederzahl. Dann berichten wir vom letzten European Dry Grassland Meeting in Tula (Russland, 2014) und vom letzten European Dry Grassland Field Workshop in Navarra (Spanien, 2014) und informieren über künftige Veranstaltungen der EDGG. Anschließend erläutern wir die Publikationsaktivitäten der EDGG. Im zweiten Teil des Editorials geben wir eine Einführung zu den fünf Artikeln des diesjährigen Trockenrasen-Sonderteils. Zwei Artikel beschäftigen sich mit der Syntaxonomie von Trockenrasen in Ost- bzw. Südosteuropa: der eine präsentiert erstmalig eine Gesamtklassifikation der Trockenrasengesellschaften Serbiens und des Kosovo während der andere Originalaufnahmen sub-montaner Graslandgesellschaften aus den bislang kaum untersuchten ukrainischen Ostkarpaten analysiert. Zwei weitere Artikel behandeln Trockenrasen-Feuchtwiesen-Komplexe im ungarischen Tiefland: Der eine behandelt den Einfluss der Landnutzung auf die Phytodiversität von Steppen und Feuchtwiesen, der andere den Einfluss von Niederschlagsschwankungen in einem Zeitraum von drei Jahren auf die Ausbildung salzbeeinflusster Steppen-Feuchtwiesen-Komplexe. Der fünfte Artikel analysiert landnutzungsbedingte Veränderungen des Graslands des Tsentralen-Balkan-Nationalparks in Bulgarien über einen Zeitraum von 65 Jahren

Oxygen isotope composition of planktonic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber in sediment core GeoB1413 from the eastern edge of the South Atlantic central gyre

Die Paläozeanographie versucht die Klimageschichte des Quartärs zu rekonstruieren und die Zusammenhänge zwischen Klimaänderungen und ozeanischer Zirkulation besser zu verstehen. Ein wichtiges Hilfsmittel stellen die planktischen Foraminiferen dar. Die Analyse planktischer Foraminiferengemeinschaften hat gezeigt, daß die Verbreitung dieser Protozoa durch die Umweltbedingungen in den Oberflächenwasserströmen bestimmt wird (BoLTOVSKOY, 1969; CIFELLI& BENIER, 1976; OTIENS, 1991). Durch ihre Ablagerung und Erhaltung am Meeresboden speichern sie diese Informationen und bilden einen Indikator für Wassermassen und Oberflächenwassertemperaturschichtung. Zeitliche und räumliche Veränderungen der Faunenvergesellschaftungen und der Verhältnisse stabiler Sauerstoff- und Kohlenstoffisotope einzelner Foraminiferenarten haben damit einen maßgeblichen Beitrag zur Kenntnis der spätquartären Temperatur- und Zirkulationsänderungen der Oberflächenströme geliefert (SHACKLETON & OPDYKE, 1973; BE et al., 1976; RUDDIMAN & McooYRE, 1976; VINCENT & BERGER, 1981; CLIMAP, 1981; RA VELO et al., 1990). Mit Hilfe der planktischen Foraminiferen soll diese Arbeit einen Beitrag zur Rekonstruktion der spätquartären Ozeanographie des Südatlantiks liefern. Die Oberflächenströme des Südatlantiks sind das Bindeglied im Wärmeaustausch zwischen niederen und hohen Breiten. Durch den Südäquatorialstrom (SEC) werden warme Wassermassen, die sich aufgrund der hohen Sonneneinstrahlung im tropischen Atlantik gebildet haben, in den Nordatlantik transportiert. Die Wärme wird im Nordatlantik unter Bildung des Nordatlantischen-Tiefenwassers (NADW) an die Atmosphäre abgegeben. Durch dieses Ereignis wird maßgeblich das nordeuropäische Klima beeinflußt (BROECKER & DENTON, 1989). Die Intensität des SEC wird durch den saisonal variierenden SE-, NE-Passat gesteuert, der hauptsächlich durch die Präzession der geneigten Erdachse bzw. durch die Insolation auf der Nordhalbkugel kontrolliert wird (Mc OOYRE et aI., 1989; MOLFINO & Mc INTYRE, 1990). Der SEC fließt entlang des Äquators von Ost nach West und kalte, nährstotfreiche, tiefere Wassermassen (Südatlantisches-Zentralwasser (SACW)) steigen vor allem im Osten auf und erzeugen das hochproduktive äquatoriale Auftriebsgebiet. Im Osten ist der Temperaturgradient in der Wassersäule steiler, und die Thermoklinentiefe nimmt von Ost nach West zu. Die Lage der Thermokline ist damit ein wesentlicher Faktor, der den Wärmehaushalt im Atlantik mitbestimmt. So wird z. B. im äquatorialen Auftriebsgebiet und im Auftriebsgebiet des küstennahen Benguela-Stroms, wo die Thermoklinentiefe durch aufsteigende kalte Wassermassen gering ist, eine Wärmezunahme von 100 W/qm im Wärmehaushalt erreicht (PETERSON & STRAMMA, 1991). Zur spätquartären Rekonstruktion des Wärmeflusses und der Oberflächenzirkulation im Südostatlantik ist es daher wichtig, auch die zeitlichen und räumlichen Veränderungen tieferer Wasserschichten (bis 300 m) zu erfassen.

Planktic foraminiferal abundance and faunal-derived sea surface temperature of eastern equatorial Pacific ODP Site 202-1240

Glacial cooling (~1-5°C) in the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) cold tongue is often attributed to increased equatorial upwelling, stronger advection from the Peru-Chile Current (PCC), and to the more remote subpolar southeastern Pacific water mass. However, evidence is scarce for identifying unambiguously which process plays a more important role in driving the large glacial cooling in the EEP. To address this question, here we adopt a faunal calibration approach using planktic foraminifers with a new compilation of coretop data from the eastern Pacific, and present new downcore variation data of fauna assemblage and estimated sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for the past 160 ka (Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 6) from ODP Site 1240 in the EEP. With significant improvement achieved by adding more coretop data from the eastern boundary current, our downcore calibration results indicate that most of the glacial cooling episodes over the past 160 ka in the EEP are attributable to increased influence from the subpolar water mass from high latitudes of the southern Pacific. By applying this new calibration of the fauna SST transfer function to a latitudinal transect of eastern Pacific (EP) cores, we find that the subpolar water mass has been a major dynamic contributor to EEP cold tongue cooling since MIS 6.

The Theory of Interhybridity: Socio-political Dimensions and Migration Experiences of Post-communist Western Balkan States

The Western Balkans integration within the EU has started a legal process which is the rejection of former communist legal/political approaches and the transformation of former communist institutions. Indeed, the EU agenda has brought vertical/horizontal integration and Europeanization of national institutions (i.e. shifting power to the EU institutions and international authorities). At this point, it is very crucial to emphasize the fact that the Western Balkans as a whole region has currently an image that includes characteristics of both the Soviet socialism and the European democracy. The EU foreign policies and enlargement strategy for Western Balkans have significant effects on four core factors (i.e. Schengen visa regulations, remittances, asylum and migration as an aggregate process). The convergence/divergence of EU member states’ priorities for migration policies regulate and even shape directly the migration dynamics in migrant sender countries. From this standpoint, the research explores how main migration factors are influenced by political and judicial factors such as; rule of law and democracy score, the economic liberation score, political and human rights, civil society score and citizenship rights in Western Balkan countries. The proposal of interhybridity explores how the hybridization of state and non-state actors within home and host countries can solve labor migration-related problems. The economical and sociopolitical labor-migration model of Basu (2009) is overlapping with the multidimensional empirical framework of interhybridity. Indisputably, hybrid model (i.e. collaboration state and non-state actors) has a catalyst role in terms of balancing social problems and civil society needs. Paradigmatically, it is better to perceive the hybrid model as a combination of communicative and strategic action that means the reciprocal recognition within the model is precondition for significant functionality. This will shape social and industrial relations with moral meanings of communication.

Global Solutions, Local Damages: A Critical Study in Judicial Councils in Central and Eastern Europe. Research Paper in Law 07/2013

This article examines why, how, and with what results have judicial councils spread under the influence of European institutions throughout Central and Eastern Europe in the course of the last twenty years. It first traces back how the judicial councils, themselves just one possible form of administration of courts, have emerged as the recommended universal solution Europe-wide and internationally. Second, it discusses how has this model been exported under the patronage of European and international institutions to transition countries in Central and Eastern Europe. Assessing, thirdly, the reality of the functioning of such new judicial councils in these countries, in particular in Slovakia and Hungary, with the Czech Republic without a judicial council providing a counter-example, it is suggested that their impact on further judicial and legal transition has been either questionable or outright disastrous. This brings, eventually, into question the legitimacy as well as the bare reasonableness of the entire process of European/international standards setting and their later marketing or in reality rather imposition onto the countries in transition.

Integration or imitation? EU policy towards its Eastern neighbours. OSW Study 36/2011

Does the European Union’s policy towards its Eastern neighbours have any chance of success? To what extent can the objective of ‘external integration’, i.e. the adoption of EU standards by its Easternneighbours, be achieved? The European Neighbourhood Policy is currently being reviewed and the revolutions in North Africa have triggered a fresh debate on this policy. Alongside this process, Poland's forthcoming presidency of the EU (given that Poland grants high priority to rapprochement with its Eastern neighbours) provides yet another pretext for posing the above questions. However, these considerations extend beyond current events and the EU calendar. There are aspects of the central question, namely: Is the EU capable of exporting its own model of governance? This question is currently more focused on the local than the global potential of the European Union. Can it continue the process of ‘making Europe wider’?

Review of the Economic Development in the Western Balkan States. OSW STUDIES No. 19, 2005-08-10

Foreword. Ten years after the end of the armed conflict, the Western Balkans1 are still being considered as the “land of the unsuccessful policies”. Enormous financial and technical assistance transferred by the International Community has not managed to meet the goals of integrating the region within itself as well as within the European markets. Explanation for this can be found in the consequences of the war and the remnants of the socialist state. The complexity of current institutional/ political arrangements combined with the limited willingness of the regional actors to introduce and implement much of the needed reforms have additionally contributed to the current state of affairs. The economy and politics in the region intertwine to an extent as probably in none of the other post-communist states. Therefore, the paper presents the recent economic performance of the Western Balkan countries in the light of their limited institutional development and lack of efficient regional cooperation. The paper discusses the importance of foreign direct investments’ inflow for the economic growth of the “latecomer” states and presents major drawbacks which limit the influx of the foreign capital to the region. It presents private sector activity and regional cooperation programmes. It discusses the role of the International Community with the main focus on the activities of the European Union. The EU is examined not only as the main aid donor but more importantly as a foreign trade partner. Furthermore, it analyses the impact of the presence of the International Community and their strategies towards the region with the special attention to the EU. Finally, it presents recommendations for the improvement of the economic performance in light of the enhanced political cooperation between the EU and the region.

The ICC Debate and the EU-U.S. Struggle for Influence: The Case of the Balkan-6. ACES Working Paper No. 11, October 2007

The objectives of the European Union (EU) and the United States (US) for the countries of the Balkan region are generally assumed to be complementary. They both stress and condition their support and assistance on the progress that these countries make with regards to economic modernization, build-up of social institutions, and respect for international law. However, this rhetoric doesn't always match the facts on the ground. Often, instead of dealing with a cohesive set of policy recommendations, the countries in the region are faced with contradictory alternatives and zero-sum choices. The debate over the development of the International Criminal Court (ICC) was such a case. It centered on whether the countries in the region should exempt US personnel from the jurisdiction of the Court while in the country and thus rendering them immune from prosecution for any crimes committed for which the US courts were not willing or able to take any action. The final outcome was mixed. Three of the countries - Croatia, Serbia (and Montenegro), and Slovenia - decided not to give in to US pressure, while the remaining three - Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Macedonia - ignored the pleas and threats of the EU and of the various international non-governmental organizations and decided to sign Bilateral Immunity Agreements (BIAs) with the US. How can one explain such divergent outcomes? I argue that the credibility of actors involved played an important role in determining whether threats coming from the US or the EU were more credible, thus tipping the scales in favor of signing BIAs with the US. However, the issue of threat credibility serves only to narrow down the choices of actors. Further determination of the outcome necessitates a look at the nature of the security context in which these countries exist and operate.

Balkan Pitfalls. ACES Working Papers, 2011

The Western Balkans are becoming increasingly mired in political conflicts, social disquiet, ethnic disputes, and state fragilities that can precipitate a new phase of regional instability. At the same time, the major international players may be unprepared and ill equipped to manage or resolve the emerging conflicts. While the U.S. and NATO have scaled down their presence in the region, the EU’s capabilities and effectiveness are coming under closer scrutiny.

The Balkan Summer of 2011. ACES Working Papers, 2011

“Turning point” has become somewhat of a cliché as a description of where a country or a region stands at a point in time. The ancient Greek philosopher Heraclitus said “you cannot step twice into the same stream” and, to be sure, life is the story of constant change and turns. Nonetheless, individuals and countries are occasionally confronted with choices so important that the course taken will likely determine subsequent events for years, even decades. Several of the countries of the Western Balkans face these kinds of decision in the summer of 2011, as does the European Union, and to some extent, the United States.