Optic variables used to judge future ball arrival position in expert and novice soccer players

Although many studies have looked at the perceptual-cognitive strategies used to make anticipatory judgments in sport, few have examined the informational invariants that our visual system may be attuned to. Using immersive interactive virtual reality to simulate the aerodynamics of the trajectory of a ball with and without sidespin, the present study examined the ability of expert and novice soccer players to make judgments about the ball's future arrival position. An analysis of their judgment responses showed how participants were strongly influenced by the ball's trajectory. The changes in trajectory caused by sidespin led to erroneous predictions about the ball's future arrival position. An analysis of potential informational variables that could explain these results points to the use of a first-order compound variable combining optical expansion and optical displacement.

The Rise and Fall of the Legal Expert System

Those very few of us who were critical of the rise of legal expert systems in the early 1980s probably wonder, in idle moments, whether there is a possibility of rejuvenation of an approach which was once multi¬various and is now obscure and esoteric. Is it possible that after rising and falling, that legal expert system research programme could rise again? What were the conditions which gave impetus to the field and could they be repeated? In this article I want to return, with a personal viewpoint, on the rise of expert systems and why – despite their failure – the appeal of commoditising legal expertise continues to allure the unwary.

Gaze fixation improves the stability of expert juggling

Novice and expert jugglers employ different visuomotor strategies: whereas novices look at the balls around their zeniths, experts tend to fixate their gaze at a central location within the pattern (so-called gaze-through). A gaze-through strategy may reflect visuomotor parsimony, i.e., the use of simpler visuomotor (oculomotor and/or attentional) strategies as afforded by superior tossing accuracy and error corrections. In addition, the more stable gaze during a gaze-through strategy may result in more accurate movement planning by providing a stable base for gaze-centered neural coding of ball motion and movement plans or for shifts in attention. To determine whether a stable gaze might indeed have such beneficial effects on juggling, we examined juggling variability during 3-ball cascade juggling with and without constrained gaze fixation (at various depths) in expert performers (n = 5). Novice jugglers were included (n = 5) for comparison, even though our predictions pertained specifically to expert juggling. We indeed observed that experts, but not novices, juggled significantly less variable when fixating, compared to unconstrained viewing. Thus, while visuomotor parsimony might still contribute to the emergence of a gaze-through strategy, this study highlights an additional role for improved movement planning. This role may be engendered by gaze-centered coding and/or attentional control mechanisms in the brain.

EXPERT-SYSTEM SUPPORT USING BAYESIAN BELIEF NETWORKS IN THE DIAGNOSIS OF FINE-NEEDLE ASPIRATION BIOPSY SPECIMENS OF THE BREAST

Aim-To develop an expert system model for the diagnosis of fine needle aspiration cytology (FNAC) of the breast.

Methods-Knowledge and uncertainty were represented in the form of a Bayesian belief network which permitted the combination of diagnostic evidence in a cumulative manner and provided a final probability for the possible diagnostic outcomes. The network comprised 10 cytological features (evidence nodes), each independently linked to the diagnosis (decision node) by a conditional probability matrix. The system was designed to be interactive in that the cytopathologist entered evidence into the network in the form of likelihood ratios for the outcomes at each evidence node.

Results-The efficiency of the network was tested on a series of 40 breast FNAC specimens. The highest diagnostic probability provided by the network agreed with the cytopathologists' diagnosis in 100% of cases for the assessment of discrete, benign, and malignant aspirates. A typical probably benign cases were given probabilities in favour of a benign diagnosis. Suspicious cases tended to have similar probabilities for both diagnostic outcomes and so, correctly, could not be assigned as benign or malignant. A closer examination of cumulative belief graphs for the diagnostic sequence of each case provided insight into the diagnostic process, and quantitative data which improved the identification of suspicious cases.

Conclusion-The further development of such a system will have three important roles in breast cytodiagnosis: (1) to aid the cytologist in making a more consistent and objective diagnosis; (2) to provide a teaching tool on breast cytological diagnosis for the non-expert; and (3) it is the first stage in the development of a system capable of automated diagnosis through the use of expert system machine vision.