Transfer function-noise modeling and spatial interpolation to evaluate the risk of extreme (shallow) water-table levels in the Brazilian Cerrados

Water regimes in the Brazilian Cerrados are sensitive to climatological disturbances and human intervention. The risk that critical water-table levels are exceeded over long periods of time can be estimated by applying stochastic methods in modeling the dynamic relationship between water levels and driving forces such as precipitation and evapotranspiration. In this study, a transfer function-noise model, the so called PIRFICT-model, is applied to estimate the dynamic relationship between water-table depth and precipitation surplus/deficit in a watershed with a groundwater monitoring scheme in the Brazilian Cerrados. Critical limits were defined for a period in the Cerrados agricultural calendar, the end of the rainy season, when extremely shallow levels (< 0.5-m depth) can pose a risk to plant health and machinery before harvesting. By simulating time-series models, the risk of exceeding critical thresholds during a continuous period of time (e.g. 10 days) is described by probability levels. These simulated probabilities were interpolated spatially using universal kriging, incorporating information related to the drainage basin from a digital elevation model. The resulting map reduced model uncertainty. Three areas were defined as presenting potential risk at the end of the rainy season. These areas deserve attention with respect to water-management and land-use planning.

Reasoning on the Risks of Dynamic Manufacturing Networks through Cognitive Mapping

Part 17: Risk Analysis

A review of risk factors for hamstring injury in soccer: a biomechanical approach

The aim has been to review the literature about the risk factors of hamstring injury in soccer from a biomechanical point of view. METHODOLOGY. Data bases of bibliography references were Medline, Scopus and SportDiscuss. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION. Many prospective studies have shown that the previous injury is the greatest risk factor of sustaining the injury. However the primary causes of the injury are unclear in soccer. A lack of hamstring flexibility has been one of the main injury risk factors with controversies on the results. Imbalance of isokinetic force is a risk factor but electrical coactivation of all muscles participating during knee flexion and extension are unknown in football. While the importance of lumbopelvic-hamstrings muscles synchronization during running seems to be crucial for understanding the risk of injury, no research has been developed in this topic in football. CONCLUSIONS. More research using new data recording procedures as Dynamic Scanners, Surface EMG, Inverse Dynamic Analysis are needed. The analysis of more specific movements as running, kicking or jumping is clearly required. Managers, coaches, physical trainers, physiotherapists, sport physicians and researchers should work together in order to improve the injury prevention and rehabilitation programs of football players. Key Words: sports biomechanics, soccer, hamstring injury, risk factors

The need for a marker predicting benefit following cardiovascular disease risk reduction treatment

Developing a robust method to study characteristics of vascular flow using ultrasound may be useful to assess endothelial function and vasodilatation. There are four stages in this proposal. 1.The first stage is to standardise and validate the methodology to enable computational risk flow data and other flow characteristics to be used clinically. (Current Study). Further development of fluid modelling methods will enable particulate haemodynamics to be investigated, and incorporate detailed endothelial structure together with cellular pathways. 2. This should be followed up by studies in different patient groups investigating the association between the derived values and estimated risk (using other methods such as Framingham risk score). 3. Then, associated with underlying cardiovascular risk, prospective studies would be made to establish whether computational flow dynamic data can predict outcome. If successful it could prove to be a very useful marker of benefit following treatment in a clinical setting.

The association between the activity profile and cardiovascular risk.

OBJECTIVES: This study sought to better understand the interrelationships between physical activity and sedentary behaviour and the relationship to risk of cardiovascular disease (CVDR) in adults aged 30-75 years. DESIGN: Cross-sectional. METHODS: Data from two-year waves (2003-2004 and 2005-2006) of the National Health and Nutritional Examination survey were analysed in 2014. Accelerometer-derived time and proportion of time spent sedentary and on moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) were calculated to generate four activity profiles based on cut-points to define low and high levels for the respective behaviours. Using health outcome data, CVDR was calculated for each person. Weighted multiple linear regression models were used to evaluate the predicted effects of sedentary and physical activity behaviours on the CVDR score, adjusting for participants' sex, age group, race, annual household income, and accelerometer wear time. RESULTS: The lowest CVDR was observed among Busy Exercisers (high MVPA and low sedentary; 8.5%), whereas Couch Potatoes (low MVPA and high sedentary) had the highest (18.6%). Compared with the reference group (Busy Exercisers), the activity profile associated with the highest CVDR was Couch Potatoes (adjusted mean difference 3.6, SE 0.38, p<0.0001). A smoothed three-dimensional response surface "risk landscape" was developed to better visualise the conjoint associations of MVPA and sedentary behaviour on CVDR for each activity profile. The association between MVPA was greater than that of sedentary behaviour; however, for people with low MVPA, shifts in sedentary behaviour may have the greatest impact on CVDR. CONCLUSIONS: Activity profiles that consider the interrelationships between physical activity and sedentary behaviour differ in terms of CVDR. Future interventions may need to be tailored to specific profiles and be dynamic enough to reflect change in the profile over time.

Dynamic virtual workspace for teleoperation of heterogeneous robots in non-deterministic environments

Robots are ever increasing in a variety of different workplaces providing an array of benefits such alternative solutions to traditional human labor. While developing fully autonomous robots is the ultimate goal in many robotic applications the reality is that there still exist many situationswere robots require some level of teleoperation in order to achieve assigned goals especially when deployed in non-deterministic environments. For instance teleoperation is commonly used in areas such as search and rescue, bomb disposal and exploration of inaccessible or harsh terrain. This is due to a range of factors such as the lack of ability for robots to quickly and reliably navigate unknown environments or provide high-level decision making especially intime critical tasks. To provide an adequate solution for such situations human-in-the-loop control is required. When developing human-in-the-loop control it is important to take advantage of the complimentary skill-sets that both humans and robots share. For example robots can performrapid calculations, provide accurate measurements through hardware such as sensors and store large amounts of data while humans provide experience, intuition, risk management and complex decision making capabilities. Shared autonomy is the concept of building robotic systems that take advantage of these complementary skills-sets to provide a robust an efficient robotic solution. While the requirement of human-in-the-loop control exists Human Machine Interaction (HMI) remains an important research topic especially the area of User Interface (UI) design.In order to provide operators with an effective teleoperation system it is important that the interface is intuitive and dynamic while also achieving a high level of immersion. Recent advancements in virtual and augmented reality hardware is giving rise to innovative HMI systems. Interactive hardware such as Microsoft Kinect, leap motion, Oculus Rift, Samsung Gear VR and even CAVE Automatic Virtual Environments [1] are providing vast improvements over traditional user interface designs such as the experimental web browser JanusVR [2]. This combined with the introduction of standardized robot frameworks such as ROS and Webots [3] that now support a large number of different robots provides an opportunity to develop a universal UI for teleoperation control to improve operator efficiency while reducing teleoperation training.This research introduces the concept of a dynamic virtual workspace for teleoperation of heterogeneous robots in non-deterministic environments that require human-in-the-loop control. The system first identifies the connected robots through the use kinematic information then determines its network capabilities such as latency and bandwidth. Given the robot type and network capabilities the system can then provide the operator with available teleoperation modes such as pick and place control or waypoint navigation while also allowing them to manipulate the virtual workspace layout to provide information from onboard camera’s or sensors.

Knowing wildfire risk: scientific interactions with risk mitigation policy and practice in Victoria, Australia

Over the past decade, major landscape wildfires (or ‘bushfires’ in Australia) in fire-prone countries have illustrated the seriousness of this global environmental problem. This natural hazard presents a complex mesh of dynamic factors for those seeking to reduce or manage its costs, as ignitions, hazard behaviour, and the reactions of different human and ecological communities during and after hazard events are all extremely uncertain. But while those at risk of wildfire have been subject to significant research, the social dimensions of its management, including the role of science, have received little attention. This paper reports on a case study of the Barwon-Otway area of Victoria in Australia, a high wildfire risk area that has recently been a pilot site for a new risk mitigation strategy utilising the wildfire simulation model PHOENIX RapidFire. Against simple equations between ‘more science’ and ‘less uncertainty,’ this paper presents results from interviews and a workshop with practitioners to investigate how scientific research interacts with and informs both wildfire policy and practice. We suggest that attending to cultural and social specificities of the application of any technical innovation—such as next generation modelling—raises questions for future research about the roles of narrative, performance, and other knowledges in the sedimentation of science.

Social Capital, HIV Risk Behavior and Substance Use among Recent Latino Immigrants in South Florida

Social capital, or social cohesion or group connectedness, can influence both HIV risk behavior and substance use. Because recent immigrants undergo a change in environment, one of the consequences can be a change in social capital. There may be an association among changes in social capital, and HIV risk behavior and substance use post immigration. The dissertation focused on the interface of these three variables among recent Latino immigrants (RLIs) in South Florida. The first manuscript is a systematic review of social capital and HIV risk behavior, and served as a partial background for the second and third manuscripts. Twelve papers with a measure of social capital as an independent variable and HIV risk as the dependent variable were included in the analysis. Eleven studies measured social capital at the individual level, and one study measured social capital at the group level. HIV risk was influenced by social capital, but the type of influence was dependent on the type of social capital and on the study population. Cognitive social capital, or levels of collective action, was protective against HIV in both men and women. The role of structural social capital, or levels of civic engagement/group participation, on HIV risk was dependent on the type of structural social capital and varied by gender. Microfinance programs and functional group participation were protective for women, while dysfunctional group participation and peer-level support may have increased HIV risk among men. The second manuscript was an original study assessing changes in social capital and HIV risk behavior pre to post immigration among RLIs in South Florida (n=527). HIV risk behavior was assessed through the frequency of vaginal-penile condom use, and the number of sexual partners. It was a longitudinal study using secondary data analysis to assess changes in social capital and HIV risk behavior pre immigration to two years post immigration, and to determine if there was a relationship between the two variables. There was an 8% decrease in total social capital (p ˂ .05). Reporting of ‘Never use’ of condoms in the past 90 days increased in all subcategories (p ˂ .05). Single men had a decrease in number of sexual partners (p ˂ .05). Lower social capital measured on the dimension of ‘friend and other’ was marginally associated with fewer sexual partners. The third manuscript was another original study looking at the association between social capital and substance use among RLIs in South Florida (n=527). Substance use with measured by frequency of hazardous alcoholic drinking, and illicit drug use. It was a longitudinal study of social capital and substance-use from pre to two years post immigration. Post-immigration, social capital, hazardous drinking and illicit drug use decreased (p˂.001). After adjusting for time, compared to males, females were less likely to engage in hazardous drinking (OR=.31, p˂.001), and less likely to engage in illicit drug use (OR=.67, p=.01). Documentation status was a moderator between social capital and illicit drug use. ‘Business’ and ‘Agency’ social capital were associated with changes in illicit drug use for documented immigrants. After adjusting for gender and marital status, on average, documented immigrants with a one-unit increase in ‘business’ social capital were 1.2 times more likely to engage in illicit drug use (p˂.01), and documented immigrants with one-unit increase in ‘agency’ social capital were 38% less likely to engage in illicit drug use (p˂.01). ‘Friend and other’ social capital was associated with a decrease in illicit drug use among undocumented immigrants. After adjusting for gender and marital status, on average, undocumented immigrants with a one-unit increase in ‘friend and other’ social capital were 45% less likely to engage in hazardous drinking and 44% less likely to use illicit drugs (p˂.01, p˂.05). Studying these three domains is relevant because HIV continues to be a public health issue, particularly in Miami-Dade County, which is ranked among other U.S. regions with high rates of HIV/AIDS prevalence. Substance use is associated with HIV risk behavior; in most studies, increased substance use is associated with increased chances of HIV risk behavior. Immigration, which is the hypothesized catalyst for the change in social capital, has an impact on the dynamic of a society. Greater immigration can be burdensome on the host country’s societal resources; however immigrants are also potentially a source of additional skilled labor for the workforce. Therefore, successful adaption of immigrants can have a positive influence on receiving communities. With Florida being a major receiver of immigrants to the U.S, this dissertation attempts to address an important public health issue for South Florida and the U.S. at large.

Role of index bonds in an optimal dynamic asset allocation model with real subsistence consumption

We investigate the role of index bonds in a dynamic consumption and asset allocation model where the rate of real consumption at any given time cannot fall below a fixed level. An explicit form of the optimal consumption and portfolio rule for a class of Constant Relative Risk Aversion (CRRA) utility functions is derived. Consumption increases above the subsistence level only when wealth exceeds a threshold value. Risky investments in equity and nominal bonds are initially proportional to the excess of wealth over a lower bound, and then increase nonlinearly with wealth. The desirability of investing in the risky assets are related to the agent’s risk preference, the equity premium, and the inflation risk premium. The demand for index bonds is also obtained. The results should be useful for the management of defined benefit pension funds, university endowments, and other portfolios which have a withdrawal pre-commitment in real terms.