Spatial and temporal analysis of Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is one of the most widespread mosquito-borne diseases in Australia. The number of outbreaks and the incidence rate of BFV in Australia have attracted growing concerns about the spatio-temporal complexity and underlying risk factors of BFV disease. A large number of notifications has been recorded continuously in Queensland since 1992. Yet, little is known about the spatial and temporal characteristics of the disease. I aim to use notification data to better understand the effects of climatic, demographic, socio-economic and ecological risk factors on the spatial epidemiology of BFV disease transmission, develop predictive risk models and forecast future disease risks under climate change scenarios. Computerised data files of daily notifications of BFV disease and climatic variables in Queensland during 1992-2008 were obtained from Queensland Health and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, respectively. Projections on climate data for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 were obtained from Council of Scientific Industrial Research Organisation. Data on socio-economic, demographic and ecological factors were also obtained from relevant government departments as follows: 1) socio-economic and demographic data from Australian Bureau of Statistics; 2) wetlands data from Department of Environment and Resource Management and 3) tidal readings from Queensland Department of Transport and Main roads. Disease notifications were geocoded and spatial and temporal patterns of disease were investigated using geostatistics. Visualisation of BFV disease incidence rates through mapping reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation at statistical local areas (SLA) over time. Results reveal high incidence rates of BFV disease along coastal areas compared to the whole area of Queensland. A Mantel-Haenszel Chi-square analysis for trend reveals a statistically significant relationship between BFV disease incidence rates and age groups (ƒÓ2 = 7587, p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the state. A cluster analysis was used to detect the hot spots/clusters of BFV disease at a SLA level. Most likely spatial and space-time clusters are detected at the same locations across coastal Queensland (p<0.05). The study demonstrates heterogeneity of disease risk at a SLA level and reveals the spatial and temporal clustering of BFV disease in Queensland. Discriminant analysis was employed to establish a link between wetland classes, climate zones and BFV disease. This is because the importance of wetlands in the transmission of BFV disease remains unclear. The multivariable discriminant modelling analyses demonstrate that wetland types of saline 1, riverine and saline tidal influence were the most significant risk factors for BFV disease in all climate and buffer zones, while lacustrine, palustrine, estuarine and saline 2 and saline 3 wetlands were less important. The model accuracies were 76%, 98% and 100% for BFV risk in subtropical, tropical and temperate climate zones, respectively. This study demonstrates that BFV disease risk varied with wetland class and climate zone. The study suggests that wetlands may act as potential breeding habitats for BFV vectors. Multivariable spatial regression models were applied to assess the impact of spatial climatic, socio-economic and tidal factors on the BFV disease in Queensland. Spatial regression models were developed to account for spatial effects. Spatial regression models generated superior estimates over a traditional regression model. In the spatial regression models, BFV disease incidence shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature, low tide and distance to coast, and positive relationship with rainfall in coastal areas whereas in whole Queensland the disease shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature and high tide and positive relationship with rainfall. This study determines the most significant spatial risk factors for BFV disease across Queensland. Empirical models were developed to forecast the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks in coastal Queensland using existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions under climate change scenarios. Logistic regression models were developed using BFV disease outbreak data for the existing period (2000-2008). The most parsimonious model had high sensitivity, specificity and accuracy and this model was used to estimate and forecast BFV disease outbreaks for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 under climate change scenarios for Australia. Important contributions arising from this research are that: (i) it is innovative to identify high-risk coastal areas by creating buffers based on grid-centroid and the use of fine-grained spatial units, i.e., mesh blocks; (ii) a spatial regression method was used to account for spatial dependence and heterogeneity of data in the study area; (iii) it determined a range of potential spatial risk factors for BFV disease; and (iv) it predicted the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. In conclusion, the thesis demonstrates that the distribution of BFV disease exhibits a distinct spatial and temporal variation. Such variation is influenced by a range of spatial risk factors including climatic, demographic, socio-economic, ecological and tidal variables. The thesis demonstrates that spatial regression method can be applied to better understand the transmission dynamics of BFV disease and its risk factors. The research findings show that disease notification data can be integrated with multi-factorial risk factor data to develop build-up models and forecast future potential disease risks under climate change scenarios. This thesis may have implications in BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Front interactions in a three-component system

The three-component reaction-diffusion system introduced in [C. P. Schenk et al., Phys. Rev. Lett., 78 (1997), pp. 3781–3784] has become a paradigm model in pattern formation. It exhibits a rich variety of dynamics of fronts, pulses, and spots. The front and pulse interactions range in type from weak, in which the localized structures interact only through their exponentially small tails, to strong interactions, in which they annihilate or collide and in which all components are far from equilibrium in the domains between the localized structures. Intermediate to these two extremes sits the semistrong interaction regime, in which the activator component of the front is near equilibrium in the intervals between adjacent fronts but both inhibitor components are far from equilibrium there, and hence their concentration profiles drive the front evolution. In this paper, we focus on dynamically evolving N-front solutions in the semistrong regime. The primary result is use of a renormalization group method to rigorously derive the system of N coupled ODEs that governs the positions of the fronts. The operators associated with the linearization about the N-front solutions have N small eigenvalues, and the N-front solutions may be decomposed into a component in the space spanned by the associated eigenfunctions and a component projected onto the complement of this space. This decomposition is carried out iteratively at a sequence of times. The former projections yield the ODEs for the front positions, while the latter projections are associated with remainders that we show stay small in a suitable norm during each iteration of the renormalization group method. Our results also help extend the application of the renormalization group method from the weak interaction regime for which it was initially developed to the semistrong interaction regime. The second set of results that we present is a detailed analysis of this system of ODEs, providing a classification of the possible front interactions in the cases of $N=1,2,3,4$, as well as how front solutions interact with the stationary pulse solutions studied earlier in [A. Doelman, P. van Heijster, and T. J. Kaper, J. Dynam. Differential Equations, 21 (2009), pp. 73–115; P. van Heijster, A. Doelman, and T. J. Kaper, Phys. D, 237 (2008), pp. 3335–3368]. Moreover, we present some results on the general case of N-front interactions.

A comparison of calculated and experimental HRTEM images of twinned boron carbide

High resolution TEM images of boron carbide (B13C2) have been recorded and compared with images calculated using the multislice method as implemented by M. A. O'Keefe in the SHRLI programs. Images calculated for the [010] zone, using machine parameters for the JEOL 2000FX AEM operating at 200 keV, indicate that for the structure model of Will et al., the optimum defocus image can be interpreted such that white spots correspond to B12 icosahedra for thin specimens and to low density channels through the structure adjacent to the direct inter-icosahedral bonds for specimens of intermediate thickness (-40 > t > -100 nm). With this information, and from the symmetry observed in the TEM images, it is likely that the (101) twin plane passes through the center of icosahedron located at the origin. This model was tested using the method of periodic continuation. Resulting images compare favorably with experimental images, thus supporting the structural model. The introduction of a (101) twin plane through the origin creates distortions to the icosahedral linkages as well as to the intra-icosahedral bonding. This increases the inequivalence of adjacent icosahedral sites along the twin plane, and thereby increases the likelihood of bipolaron hopping.

Breast cancer detection from thermal images using bispectral invariant features

Highly sensitive infrared (IR) cameras provide high-resolution diagnostic images of the temperature and vascular changes of breasts. These images can be processed to emphasize hot spots that exhibit early and subtle changes owing to pathology. The resulting images show clusters that appear random in shape and spatial distribution but carry class dependent information in shape and texture. Automated pattern recognition techniques are challenged because of changes in location, size and orientation of these clusters. Higher order spectral invariant features provide robustness to such transformations and are suited for texture and shape dependent information extraction from noisy images. In this work, the effectiveness of bispectral invariant features in diagnostic classification of breast thermal images into malignant, benign and normal classes is evaluated and a phase-only variant of these features is proposed. High resolution IR images of breasts, captured with measuring accuracy of ±0.4% (full scale) and temperature resolution of 0.1 °C black body, depicting malignant, benign and normal pathologies are used in this study. Breast images are registered using their lower boundaries, automatically extracted using landmark points whose locations are learned during training. Boundaries are extracted using Canny edge detection and elimination of inner edges. Breast images are then segmented using fuzzy c-means clustering and the hottest regions are selected for feature extraction. Bispectral invariant features are extracted from Radon projections of these images. An Adaboost classifier is used to select and fuse the best features during training and then classify unseen test images into malignant, benign and normal classes. A data set comprising 9 malignant, 12 benign and 11 normal cases is used for evaluation of performance. Malignant cases are detected with 95% accuracy. A variant of the features using the normalized bispectrum, which discards all magnitude information, is shown to perform better for classification between benign and normal cases, with 83% accuracy compared to 66% for the original.

Influencing the experience of people in urban public places through mobile mediated interactions

This study presents research findings to informthe design and development of innovativemobile services aiming to enable collocated people to interact with each other in public urban places. The main goal of this research is to provide applications and deliver guidelines to positively influence the user experience of different public urban places during everyday urban life. This study describes the design and evaluation of mobile content and services enabling mobile mediated interactions in an anonymous way. The research described in this thesis is threefold. First, this study investigates how Information and Communication Technology (ICT) can be utilised in particular urban public places to influence the experience of urban dwellers during everyday life. The research into urban residents and public places guides the design of three different technologies that form case studies to investigate and discover possibilities to digitally augment the public urban space and make the invisible data of our interactions in the urban environment visible. • Capital Music enables urban dwellers to listen to their music on their mobile devices as usual but also visualises the artworks of songs currently being played and listened to by other users in ones’ vicinity. • PlaceTagz uses QR codes printed on stickers that link to a digital message board enabling collocated users to interact with each other over time resulting in a place-based digital memory. • Sapporo World Window, Brisbane Hot Spots, and YourScreen are interactive content applications allowing people to share data with their mobile phones on public urban screens. The applications employ mobile phones to mediate interactions in form of location and video sharing. Second, this study sets out to explore the quality and nature of the experiences created through the developed and deployed case study applications. The development of a user experience framework for evaluating mobile mediated interactions in urban public places is described and applied within each case. Third, drawing on research from urban sociology, psychology, urban design, and the findings from this study, this thesis discusses how such interactions can have an impact on the urban experience.

Investigation of ultra trace detection in functionalised-surface enhanced Raman spectroscopy (SERS)

We have developed an explanation for ultra trace detection found when using Au/Ag SERS nanoparticles linked to biochemical affinity tags, e.g. antibodies. The nanoparticle structure is not as usually assumed and the aggregated nanoparticles constitute hot spots that are indispensable for these very low levels of analyte detection, even more so when using a direct detection method.

Visual performance with lenses correcting peripheral refractive errors

Purpose To design and manufacture lenses to correct peripheral refraction along the horizontal meridian and to determine whether these resulted in noticeable improvements in visual performance. Method Subjective refraction of a low myope was determined on the basis of best peripheral detection acuity along the horizontal visual field out to ±30° for both horizontal and vertical gratings. Subjective refraction was compared to objective refractions using a COAS-HD aberrometer. Special lenses were made to correct peripheral refraction, based on designs optimized with and without smoothing across a 3 mm diameter square aperture. Grating detection was retested with these lenses. Contrast thresholds of 1.25’ spots were determined across the field for the conditions of best correction, on-axis correction, and the special lenses. Results The participant had high relative peripheral hyperopia, particularly in the temporal visual field (maximum 2.9 D). There were differences > 0.5D between subjective and objective refractions at a few field angles. On-axis correction reduced peripheral detection acuity and increased peripheral contrast threshold in the peripheral visual field, relative to the best correction, by up to 0.4 and 0.5 log units, respectively. The special lenses restored most of the peripheral vision, although not all at angles to ±10°, and with the lens optimized with aperture-smoothing possibly giving better vision than the lens optimized without aperture-smoothing at some angles. Conclusion It is possible to design and manufacture lenses to give near optimum peripheral visual performance to at least ±30° along one visual field meridian. The benefit of such lenses is likely to be manifest only if a subject has a considerable relative peripheral refraction, for example of the order of 2 D.

New strategy toward dioxin risk reduction for local residents surrounding severe dioxin hotspots in Vietnam

Background A public health intervention program with active involvement of local related stakeholders was piloted in the Bien Hoa dioxin hot spot (2007-2009), and then expanded to the Da Nang dioxin hot spot in Vietnam (2009-2011). It aimed to reduce the risk of dioxin exposure through foods for local residents. This article presents the results of the intervention in Da Nang. Methodology To assess the results of this intervention program, pre-intervention and post-intervention knowledge-attitude-practice (KAP) surveys were implemented in 400 households, randomly selected from four wards surrounding Da Nang Airbase in 2009 and 2011, respectively. Results After the intervention, the knowledge on the existence of dioxin in food, dioxin exposure pathways, potential high risk foods and preventive measures significantly increased (p < 0.05). 98% were willing to follow advice on preventing dioxin exposure. Practices to reduce the risk of dioxin exposure also statistical significantly improved (p<0.05). After intervention, 60.4% of households undertook exposure preventive measures, significantly higher than that of the pre-intervention survey (39.6%; χ2 =40.15 , P<0.001). High risk foods had quite low rates of daily consumption (from 0% to 2.5%) and were significantly reduced (p<0.05). Conclusions This is seen as an effective intervention strategy toward reducing the risk of human exposure to dioxin at dioxin hot spots. While greater efforts are needed for remediating dioxin polluted areas inside airbases, there is also evidence to suggest that, during the past four decades, pollution has been expanding to the surrounding areas. For this reason, this model should be quickly expanded to the remaining dioxin hot spots in Vietnam to further reduce the exposure risk in these areas.

Simulation of Au particle interaction on graphene sheets

The interaction of Au particles with few layer graphene is of interest for the formation of the next generation of sensing devices(1). In this paper we investigate the coupling of single gold nanoparticles to a graphene sheet, and multiple gold nanoparticles with a graphene sheet using COMSOL Multiphysics. By using these simulations we are able to determine the electric field strength and associated hot-spots for various gold nanoparticle-graphene systems. The Au nanoparticles were modelled as 8 nm diameter spheres on 1.5 nm thick (5 layers) graphene, with properties of graphene obtained from the refractive index data of Weber(2) and the Au refractive index data from Palik(3). The field was incident along the plane of the sheet with polarisation tested for both s and p. The study showed strong localised interaction between the Au and graphene with limited spread; however the double particle case where the graphene sheet separated two Au nanoparticles showed distinct interaction between the particles and graphene. An offset was introduced (up to 4 nm) resulting in much reduced coupling between the opposed particles as the distance apart increased. Findings currently suggest that the graphene layer has limited interaction with incident fields with a single particle present whilst reducing the coupling region to a very fine area when opposing particles are involved. It is hoped that the results of this research will provide insight into graphene-plasmon interactions and spur the development of the next generation of sensing devices.

Knowledge, attitudes and practices to reduce exposure among residents living near Danang dioxin hot spot : 2.5 years after a preventative intervention

Da Nang Airbase in Viet Nam served as a bulk storage and supply facility for Agent Orange and other herbicides during Operation Ranch Hand 1961-1971[1]. Studies have shown that environmental and biological samples taken around the airbase site have elevated levels of dioxin [1-3]. Residents living in the vicinity of the airbase are at risk of exposure to dioxin in soil, water and mud and particularly through the consumption of local contaminated food. In 2009, a pre-intervention cross sectional survey was undertaken. This survey examined the knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) of householders living near Da Nang Airbase, relevent to reducing dioxin exposure through contaminated food. The results showed that despite living near a severe dioxin hot spot, the residents had very limited knowledge of both exposure risk and measures to reduce exposure to dioxin[4]. In response, the Vietnam Public Health Association (VPHA) and Da Nang Public Health Association implemented a risk reduction program at four residential wards in the vicinities of the Da Nang Airbase in 2010. A post intervention KAP survey was under taken in 2011, and the results showed that knowledge of the existence of dioxin in food, dioxin exposure pathways, potential high risk foods, and preventive measures was significantly enhanced. This new study monitored KAP 2.5 years after the intervention through a 2013 survey of food handlers from 400 households that were randomly selected from the four intervention wards. The results show that most of the positive outcomes remained stable or had increased; some KAP indicators decreased compared to those in the post-intervention survey, but were still significantly higher than the pre-intervention levels. In 2014, these findings will be incorporated with qualitative assessments and the results of laboratory analysis of dioxin concentrations in foods in Da Nang and Bien Hoa dioxin hot spots to comprehensively assess the sustained effects of the intervention.

Applying quantile regression for modeling equivalent property damage only crashes to identify accident blackspots

Hot spot identification (HSID) aims to identify potential sites—roadway segments, intersections, crosswalks, interchanges, ramps, etc.—with disproportionately high crash risk relative to similar sites. An inefficient HSID methodology might result in either identifying a safe site as high risk (false positive) or a high risk site as safe (false negative), and consequently lead to the misuse the available public funds, to poor investment decisions, and to inefficient risk management practice. Current HSID methods suffer from issues like underreporting of minor injury and property damage only (PDO) crashes, challenges of accounting for crash severity into the methodology, and selection of a proper safety performance function to model crash data that is often heavily skewed by a preponderance of zeros. Addressing these challenges, this paper proposes a combination of a PDO equivalency calculation and quantile regression technique to identify hot spots in a transportation network. In particular, issues related to underreporting and crash severity are tackled by incorporating equivalent PDO crashes, whilst the concerns related to the non-count nature of equivalent PDO crashes and the skewness of crash data are addressed by the non-parametric quantile regression technique. The proposed method identifies covariate effects on various quantiles of a population, rather than the population mean like most methods in practice, which more closely corresponds with how black spots are identified in practice. The proposed methodology is illustrated using rural road segment data from Korea and compared against the traditional EB method with negative binomial regression. Application of a quantile regression model on equivalent PDO crashes enables identification of a set of high-risk sites that reflect the true safety costs to the society, simultaneously reduces the influence of under-reported PDO and minor injury crashes, and overcomes the limitation of traditional NB model in dealing with preponderance of zeros problem or right skewed dataset.

Hot spot detection and spatio-temporal dispersion of dengue fever in Hanoi, Vietnam

INTRODUCTION Dengue fever (DF) in Vietnam remains a serious emerging arboviral disease, which generates significant concerns among international health authorities. Incidence rates of DF have increased significantly during the last few years in many provinces and cities, especially Hanoi. The purpose of this study was to detect DF hot spots and identify the disease dynamics dispersion of DF over the period between 2004 and 2009 in Hanoi, Vietnam. METHODS Daily data on DF cases and population data for each postcode area of Hanoi between January 1998 and December 2009 were obtained from the Hanoi Center for Preventive Health and the General Statistic Office of Vietnam. Moran's I statistic was used to assess the spatial autocorrelation of reported DF. Spatial scan statistics and logistic regression were used to identify space-time clusters and dispersion of DF. RESULTS The study revealed a clear trend of geographic expansion of DF transmission in Hanoi through the study periods (OR 1.17, 95% CI 1.02-1.34). The spatial scan statistics showed that 6/14 (42.9%) districts in Hanoi had significant cluster patterns, which lasted 29 days and were limited to a radius of 1,000 m. The study also demonstrated that most DF cases occurred between June and November, during which the rainfall and temperatures are highest. CONCLUSIONS There is evidence for the existence of statistically significant clusters of DF in Hanoi, and that the geographical distribution of DF has expanded over recent years. This finding provides a foundation for further investigation into the social and environmental factors responsible for changing disease patterns, and provides data to inform program planning for DF control.

Optimising the length of Random Breath Tests : results from the Queensland Community Engagement Trial

Research suggests that the length and quality of police-citizen encounters affect policing outcomes. The Koper Curve, for example, shows that the optimal length for police presence in hot spots is between 14 and 15 minutes, with diminishing returns observed thereafter. Our study, using data from the Queensland Community Engagement Trial (QCET), examines the impact of encounter length on citizen perceptions of police performance. QCET involved a randomised field trial, where 60 random breath test (RBT) traffic stop operations were randomly allocated to an experimental condition involving a procedurally just encounter or a business-as-usual control condition. Our results show that the optimal length of time for procedurally just encounters during RBT traffic stops is just less than 2 minutes. We show, therefore, that it is important to encourage and facilitate positive police–citizen encounters during RBTat traffic stops, while ensuring that the length of these interactions does not pass a point of diminishing returns.

Implication of collagen type I-induced membrane-type 1-matrix metalloproteinase expression and matrix metalloproteinase-2 activation in the metastatic progression of breast carcinoma

We have previously demonstrated that fibroblasts and invasive human breast carcinoma (HBC) cells specifically activate matrix metalloproteinase- 2 (MMP-2) when cultured on 3-dimensional gels of type I collagen but not a range of other substrates. We show here the constitutive expression of membrane-type 1 (MT1)-MMP in both fibroblasts, and invasive HBC cell lines, that have fibroblastic attributes presumably acquired through an epithelial- to-mesenchymal transition (EMT). Treatment with collagen type I increased the steady-state MT1-MMP mRNA levels in these cells but did not induce either MT1-MMP expression or MMP-2 activation in noninvasive breast carcinoma cell lines, which retain epithelial features. Basal MT3-MMP mRNA expression had a pattern similar to that of MT1-MMP but was not up-regulated by collagen. MT4- MMP mRNA was seen in both invasive and noninvasive HBC cell lines and was also not collagen-regulated, and MT2-MMP mRNA was not detected in any of the HBC cell lines tested. These data support a role for MT1-MMP in the collagen- induced MMP-2-activation seen in these cells. In situ hybridization analysis of archival breast cancer specimens revealed a close parallel in expression of both collagen type I and MT1-MMP mRNA in peritumoral fibroblasts, which was correlated with aggressiveness of the lesion. Relatively high levels of expression of both mRNA species were seen in fibroblasts close to invasive tumor nests and, although only focally, in certain areas close to preinvasive tumors. These foci may represent hot spots for local degradation and invasive progression. Collectively, these results implicate MT1-MMP in collagen- stimulated MMP-2 activation and suggest that this mechanism may be employed in vivo by both tumor-associated fibroblasts and EMT-derived carcinoma cells to facilitate increased invasion and/or metastasis.

Self assembly of plasmonic core-satellite nano-assemblies mediated by hyperbranched polymer linkers

The morphology of plasmonic nano-assemblies has a direct influence on optical properties, such as localised surface plasmon resonance (LSPR) and surface enhanced Raman scattering (SERS) intensity. Assemblies with core-satellite morphologies are of particular interest, because this morphology has a high density of hot-spots, while constraining the overall size. Herein, a simple method is reported for the self-assembly of gold NPs nano-assemblies with a core-satellite morphology, which was mediated by hyperbranched polymer (HBP) linkers. The HBP linkers have repeat units that do not interact strongly with gold NPs, but have multiple end-groups that specifically interact with the gold NPs and act as anchoring points resulting in nano-assemblies with a large (~48 nm) core surrounded by smaller (~15 nm) satellites. It was possible to control the number of satellites in an assembly which allowed optical parameters such as SPR maxima and the SERS intensity to be tuned. These results were found to be consistent with finite-difference time domain (FDTD) simulations. Furthermore, the multiplexing of the nano-assemblies with a series of Raman tag molecules was demonstrated, without an observable signal arising from the HBP linker after tagging. Such plasmonic nano-assemblies could potentially serve as efficient SERS based diagnostics or biomedical imaging agents in nanomedicine.