A manual of the infusoria, including a description of all known flagellate, ciliate, and tentaculiferous protozoa, British and foreign and an account of the organization and affinities of the sponges by W. Saville Kent, 3 vol.

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Collusion in growing and shrinking markets: empirical evidence from experimental duopolies

We study collusive behaviour in experimental duopolies that compete in prices under dynamic demand conditions. In one treatment the demand grows at a constant rate. In the other treatment the demand declines at another constant rate. The rates are chosen so that the evolution of the demand in one case is just the reverse in time than the one for the other case. We use a box-design demand function so that there are no issues of finding and co-ordinating on the collusive price. Contrary to game-theoretic reasoning, our results show that collusion is significantly larger when the demand shrinks than when it grows. We conjecture that the prospect of rapidly declining profit opportunities exerts a disciplining effect on firms that facilitates collusion and discourages deviation.

Three essays on the psychology of investment and financial markets

Préface My thesis consists of three essays where I consider equilibrium asset prices and investment strategies when the market is likely to experience crashes and possibly sharp windfalls. Although each part is written as an independent and self contained article, the papers share a common behavioral approach in representing investors preferences regarding to extremal returns. Investors utility is defined over their relative performance rather than over their final wealth position, a method first proposed by Markowitz (1952b) and by Kahneman and Tversky (1979), that I extend to incorporate preferences over extremal outcomes. With the failure of the traditional expected utility models in reproducing the observed stylized features of financial markets, the Prospect theory of Kahneman and Tversky (1979) offered the first significant alternative to the expected utility paradigm by considering that people focus on gains and losses rather than on final positions. Under this setting, Barberis, Huang, and Santos (2000) and McQueen and Vorkink (2004) were able to build a representative agent optimization model which solution reproduced some of the observed risk premium and excess volatility. The research in behavioral finance is relatively new and its potential still to explore. The three essays composing my thesis propose to use and extend this setting to study investors behavior and investment strategies in a market where crashes and sharp windfalls are likely to occur. In the first paper, the preferences of a representative agent, relative to time varying positive and negative extremal thresholds are modelled and estimated. A new utility function that conciliates between expected utility maximization and tail-related performance measures is proposed. The model estimation shows that the representative agent preferences reveals a significant level of crash aversion and lottery-pursuit. Assuming a single risky asset economy the proposed specification is able to reproduce some of the distributional features exhibited by financial return series. The second part proposes and illustrates a preference-based asset allocation model taking into account investors crash aversion. Using the skewed t distribution, optimal allocations are characterized as a resulting tradeoff between the distribution four moments. The specification highlights the preference for odd moments and the aversion for even moments. Qualitatively, optimal portfolios are analyzed in terms of firm characteristics and in a setting that reflects real-time asset allocation, a systematic over-performance is obtained compared to the aggregate stock market. Finally, in my third article, dynamic option-based investment strategies are derived and illustrated for investors presenting downside loss aversion. The problem is solved in closed form when the stock market exhibits stochastic volatility and jumps. The specification of downside loss averse utility functions allows corresponding terminal wealth profiles to be expressed as options on the stochastic discount factor contingent on the loss aversion level. Therefore dynamic strategies reduce to the replicating portfolio using exchange traded and well selected options, and the risky stock.

Public Governance, Health and Foreign Direct Investment in Sub-Saharan Africa

In this paper we diverge from the existing empirical literature on FDI determinants in two ways. First, we decompose the sources of the foreign direct investment (FDI) gap between Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and other developing regions. Once market size has been accounted for, we nd that SSA's FDI de cit is mostly explained by insufficient provision of public goods: low human capital accumulation, especially health, in SSA explains 100-140% of the inter-regional FDI gaps. Second, we estimate the indirect effect of infectious diseases on FDI through their direct impact on health. We find that a 1% point rise in HIV prevalence in the adult population is associated with a decrease in net FDI inflows of 3.5%, while a country in which 100% of the population is at risk of contracting deadly malaria receives about 16% less FDI than a similar country located in a malaria-free region.

Monetary policy strategies, financial institutions and financial markets in the Middle East and North Africa: an overview

Three polar types of monetary architecture are identified together with the institutional and market infrastructure required for each type and the kinds of monetary policy feasible in each case: a ‘basic’ architecture where there is little or no financial system as such but an elementary central bank which is able to fix the exchange rate, as a substitute for a proper monetary policy; a ‘modern’ monetary architecture with developed banks, financial markets and central bank where policy choices include types of inflation targeting; and an ‘intermediate’ monetary architecture where less market-based monetary policies involving less discretion are feasible. A range of data is used to locate the various MENA countries with respect to these polar types. Five countries (Iran, Libya, Sudan, Syria and Yemen) are identified as those with the least developed monetary architecture, while Bahrain and Jordan are identified as the group at the other end of the spectrum, reaching beyond the intermediate polar type in some dimensions but not others. The countries in between vary on different dimensions but all lie between basic and intermediate architectures. The key general findings are that the MENA countries are both less differentiated and less ‘developed’ than might have been expected. The paper ends by calling for research on the costs and benefits of different types of monetary architecture.

Civil war and foreign influence

We study a symmetric information bargaining model of civil war where a third (foreign) party can affect the probabilities of winning the conflict and the size of the post conflict spoils. We show that the possible alliance with a third party makes peaceful agreements difficult to reach and might lead to new commitment problems that trigger war. Also, we argue that the foreign party is likely to induce persistent informational asymmetries which might explain long lasting civil wars. We explore both political and economic incentives for a third party to intervene. The explicit consideration of political incentives leads to two predictions that allow for identifying the influence of foreign intervention on civil war incidence. Both predictions are confirmed for the case of the U.S. as a potential intervening nation: (i) civil wars around the world are more likely under Republican governments and (ii) the probability of civil wars decreases with U.S. presidential approval rates.

Giardia survey in live-trapped small domestic and wild mammals in four regions in the southwest region of the State of São Paulo, Brazil

For the first time, a survey on Giardia in the live-trapped small domestic and wild mammals was perfomed in four regions of state of the São Paulo, Brazil, with special attention to the parasitism of Rattus rattus rattus by Giardia. This species was found infected in all studied sites: Botucatu (15.4%), Conchas (28.5%), Itaporanga (38.7%) and São Roque (100 %). Two new hosts and their frequency of infection were described for Giardia in Nectomys squamipes, an aquatic rodent and in Bolomys lasiurus, a forest rodent (100 % and 14.3 %, respectively). Both G. muris and G. duodenalis groups were found in scrapings of intestinal mucosa of those rodents. Mixed infection was observed in some animals. It is important to emphasize the infection by G. duodenalis in the black rat as this species lives as a comensal with man and in N. squamipes as it may contaminate small streams used for domestic consumption. Therefore, further investigation will be necessary to elucidate the potential of these rodents to act as reservoirs of Giardia for man.

Reliability of serological methods for detection of leishmaniasis in portuguese domestic and wild reservoirs

A direct agglutination test (DAT) and an immunofluorescence technique (IFAT) were compared for detection of Leishmania infantum infection in 43 dogs and five foxes from Alto-Douro and Arrábida, two known endemic areas in Portugal. In four dogs with proved canine leishmaniasis, both DAT and IFAT showed positive readings (titres >1:320 and >1:128). Of 34 samples collected from apparently healthy dogs, ten were positive by both serological tests and eight were serologically positive by one test or the other. Three foxes out of five captured in this area, scored titres indicative of leishmaniasis in both DAT and IFAT. The concordance between DAT and IFAT in all collected samples (48) was 81.25%. Considering these and previous studies in the adjacent Mediterranean areas, the seroprevalence of L. infantum infection in the canine and vulpine populations appear to be of high magnitude.

Density of Sand Flies (Diptera: Psychodidae) in Domestic and Wild Animal Shelters in an Area of Visceral Leishmaniasis in the State of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil

The objective of the present study was to determine the association of sand flies with the presence of domestic and wild animals in the peridomiciliary area. The sand flies were collected using direct aspiration and CDC light traps placed in animal shelters. The results suggest that different sand flies species have different behavioral characteristics in an apparent preference for animal baits and that Lutzomyia longipalpis and Lu. evandroi were the most eclectic species regarding their biotope choice. Lu. longipalpis showed a distinct preference for horses and Lu. evandroi for armadillos.

Domestic and peridomestic transmission of American cutaneous leishmaniasis: changing epidemiological patterns present new control opportunities

Predictions that deforestation would reduce American cutaneous leishmaniasis incidence have proved incorrect. Presentations at a recent international workshop, instead, demonstrated frequent domestication of transmission throughout Latin America. While posing new threats, this process also increases the effectiveness of vector control in and around houses. New approaches for sand fly control and effective targeting of resources are reviewed.

Triatomines Involved in Domestic and Wild Trypanosoma cruzi Transmission in Concepción, Corrientes, Argentina

An entomological and serological survey was performed in three localities of the Department of Concepción, Province of Corrientes, Argentina in 1998 and 1999, to identify triatomines species involved in domestic and wild transmission of Chagas disease. Triatomines were collected by man/hour capture in 32 houses randomly selected and 44 nearby outdoor ecotopes. Trypanosoma cruzi infection in triatomines was assessed by direct microscopic observation (400x) of feces and polymerase chain reaction. Serological techniques used for people were Indirect Hemagglutination Test and Indirect Fluorescent Test. Triatomines were collected in 28.1% of the houses and 31.8% of the wild biotopes. Triatoma infestans (Klug 1834) was exclusively found indoors and T. cruzi infected 60% of them. Triatoma sordida (Stål 1859) was mainly found in extradomestic ecotopes where trypanosome infection rate reached 12.7%. Serological study of 98 local people showed that 29.6% were seroreactive; most of their houses were closed to wild biotopes colonized by T. sordida. Results indicate that there is an active T. infestans mediated transmission of Chagas disease in this zone that yields important human prevalence and that the populations of T. sordida in wild biotopes not only sustain the wild T. cruzi cycle but also represent an actual risk for people living in the area.

Influence of Individual Characteristics on Work Engagement and Job Stress in a Sample of National and Foreign Workers in Switzerland

In most Western postindustrial societies today, the population is aging, businesses are faced with global integration, and important migration flows are taking place. Increasingly work organizations are hiring crossnational and multicultural workteams. In this situation it is important to understand the influence of certain individual and cultural characteristics on the process of professional integration. The present study explores the links between personality traits, demographic characteristics (age, sex, education, income, and nationality), work engagement, and job stress. The sample consisted of 618 participants, including 394 Swiss workers (200 women, 194 men) and 224 foreigners living and working in Switzerland (117 women, 107 men). Each participant completed the NEO-FFI, the UWES, and the GWSS questionnaires. Our results show an interaction between age and nationality with respect to work engagement and general job stress. The levels of work engagement and job stress appear to increase with age among national wotkers, whereas they decrease among foreign workers. In addition, work engagement was negatively associated with Neuroticism and positively with the other four personality dimensions. Finally, job stress was positively associated with Neuroticism and Conscientiousness, and negatively associated with Extraversion. However, the strength of these relationships appeared to vary according to the worker's nationality, age, sex, education, and income.