Adaptive Weighing Designs for Keyword Value Computation

Attributing a dollar value to a keyword is an essential part of running any profitable search engine advertising campaign. When an advertiser has complete control over the interaction with and monetization of each user arriving on a given keyword, the value of that term can be accurately tracked. However, in many instances, the advertiser may monetize arrivals indirectly through one or more third parties. In such cases, it is typical for the third party to provide only coarse-grained reporting: rather than report each monetization event, users are aggregated into larger channels and the third party reports aggregate information such as total daily revenue for each channel. Examples of third parties that use channels include Amazon and Google AdSense. In such scenarios, the number of channels is generally much smaller than the number of keywords whose value per click (VPC) we wish to learn. However, the advertiser has flexibility as to how to assign keywords to channels over time. We introduce the channelization problem: how do we adaptively assign keywords to channels over the course of multiple days to quickly obtain accurate VPC estimates of all keywords? We relate this problem to classical results in weighing design, devise new adaptive algorithms for this problem, and quantify the performance of these algorithms experimentally. Our results demonstrate that adaptive weighing designs that exploit statistics of term frequency, variability in VPCs across keywords, and flexible channel assignments over time provide the best estimators of keyword VPCs.

Bid-ask spreads and volatility in the foreign exchange market. An empirical analysis

Consistent with the implications from a simple asymmetric information model for the bid-ask spread, we present empirical evidence that the size of the bid-ask spread in the foreign exchange market is positively related to the underlying exchange rate uncertainty. The estimation results are based on an ordered probit analysis that captures the discreteness in the spread distribution, with the uncertainty of the spot exchange rate being quantified through a GARCH type model. The data sets consists of more than 300,000 continuously recorded Deutschemark/dollar quotes over the period from April 1989 to June 1989. © 1994.

Impacts of Mountaintop Removal Coal Mining on the Mud River, West Virginia: Selenium Accumulation, Trophic Transfer, and Toxicity in Fish

Selenium (Se) is a micronutrient necessary for the function of a variety of important enzymes; Se also exhibits a narrow range in concentrations between essentiality and toxicity. Oviparous vertebrates such as birds and fish are especially sensitive to Se toxicity, which causes reproductive impairment and defects in embryo development. Selenium occurs naturally in the Earth's crust, but it can be mobilized by a variety of anthropogenic activities, including agricultural practices, coal burning, and mining.

Mountaintop removal/valley fill (MTR/VF) coal mining is a form of surface mining found throughout central Appalachia in the United States that involves blasting off the tops of mountains to access underlying coal seams. Spoil rock from the mountain is placed into adjacent valleys, forming valley fills, which bury stream headwaters and negatively impact surface water quality. This research focused on the biological impacts of Se leached from MTR/VF coal mining operations located around the Mud River, West Virginia.

In order to assess the status of Se in a lotic (flowing) system such as the Mud River, surface water, insects, and fish samples including creek chub (Semotilus atromaculatus) and green sunfish (Lepomis cyanellus) were collected from a mining impacted site as well as from a reference site not impacted by mining. Analysis of samples from the mined site showed increased conductivity and Se in the surface waters compared to the reference site in addition to increased concentrations of Se in insects and fish. Histological analysis of mined site fish gills showed a lack of normal parasites, suggesting parasite populations may be disrupted due to poor water quality. X-ray absorption near edge spectroscopy techniques were used to determine the speciation of Se in insect and creek chub samples. Insects contained approximately 40-50% inorganic Se (selenate and selenite) and 50-60% organic Se (Se-methionine and Se-cystine) while fish tissues contained lower proportions of inorganic Se than insects, instead having higher proportions of organic Se in the forms of methyl-Se-cysteine, Se-cystine, and Se-methionine.

Otoliths, calcified inner ear structures, were also collected from Mud River creek chubs and green sunfish and analyzed for Se content using laser ablation inductively couple mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS). Significant differences were found between the two species of fish, based on the concentrations of otolith Se. Green sunfish otoliths from all sites contained background or low concentrations of otolith Se (< 1 µg/g) that were not significantly different between mined and unmined sites. In contrast creek chub otoliths from the historically mined site contained much higher (≥ 5 µg/g, up to approximately 68 µg/g) concentrations of Se than for the same species in the unmined site or for the green sunfish. Otolith Se concentrations were related to muscle Se concentrations for creek chubs (R2 = 0.54, p = 0.0002 for the last 20% of the otolith Se versus muscle Se) while no relationship was observed for green sunfish.

Additional experiments using biofilms grown in the Mud River showed increased Se in mined site biofilms compared to the reference site. When we fed fathead minnows (Pimephales promelas) on these biofilms in the laboratory they accumulated higher concentrations of Se in liver and ovary tissues compared to fathead minnows fed on reference site biofilms. No differences in Se accumulation were found in muscle from either treatment group. Biofilms were also centrifuged and separated into filamentous green algae and the remaining diatom fraction. The majority of Se was found in the diatom fraction with only about 1/3rd of total biofilm Se concentration present in the filamentous green algae fraction

Finally, zebrafish (Danio rerio) embryos were exposed to aqueous Se in the form of selenate, selenite, and L-selenomethionine in an attempt to determine if oxidative stress plays a role in selenium embryo toxicity. Selenate and selenite exposure did not induce embryo deformities (lordosis and craniofacial malformation). L-selenomethionine, however, induced significantly higher deformity rates at 100 µg/L compared to controls. Antioxidant rescue of L-selenomethionime induced deformities was attempted in embryos using N-acetylcysteine (NAC). Pretreatment with NAC significantly reduced deformities in the zebrafish embryos secondarily treated with L-selenomethionine, suggesting that oxidative stress may play a role in Se toxicity. Selenite exposure also induced a 6.6-fold increase in glutathione-S-transferase pi class 2 gene expression, which is involved in xenobiotic transformation. No changes in gene expression were observed for selenate or L-selenomethionine-exposed embryos.

The findings in this dissertation contribute to the understanding of how Se bioaccumulates in a lotic system and is transferred through a simulated foodweb in addition to further exploring oxidative stress as a potential mechanism for Se-induced embryo toxicity. Future studies should continue to pursue the role of oxidative stress and other mechanisms in Se toxicity and the biotransformation of Se in aquatic ecosystems.

Developing the Cost of Large Carnivore Conflict Rapid Response Units - A Namibian Case Study

Namibia is home to half the world’s remaining wild cheetahs and - provides critical habitat for lions, leopards, spotted and brown hyena and African Wild Dogs. Despite such ecological importance, only 5% of cheetah's, <1% of African Wild Dogs', and similar percentages of remaining habitat for other large carnivores exists on officially protected lands. As a result, human/carnivore conflict is a large problem on private lands, where 60% of surveyed farmers will shoot any large carnivore on sight. This project explores building a carnivore rapid response team equipped to mitigate human/carnivore conflict through researching the financial costs of such an endeavor, with an eye on capitalizing potential benefits to all 6 Namibian large carnivore species.

Environmental context explains Lévy and Brownian movement patterns of marine predators

An optimal search theory, the so-called Levy-flight foraging hypothesis(1), predicts that predators should adopt search strategies known as Levy flights where prey is sparse and distributed unpredictably, but that Brownian movement is sufficiently efficient for locating abundant prey(2-4). Empirical studies have generated controversy because the accuracy of statistical methods that have been used to identify Levy behaviour has recently been questioned(5,6). Consequently, whether foragers exhibit Levy flights in the wild remains unclear. Crucially, moreover, it has not been tested whether observed movement patterns across natural landscapes having different expected resource distributions conform to the theory's central predictions. Here we use maximum-likelihood methods to test for Levy patterns in relation to environmental gradients in the largest animal movement data set assembled for this purpose. Strong support was found for Levy search patterns across 14 species of open-ocean predatory fish (sharks, tuna, billfish and ocean sunfish), with some individuals switching between Levy and Brownian movement as they traversed different habitat types. We tested the spatial occurrence of these two principal patterns and found Levy behaviour to be associated with less productive waters (sparser prey) and Brownian movements to be associated with productive shelf or convergence-front habitats (abundant prey). These results are consistent with the Levy-flight foraging hypothesis(1,7), supporting the contention(8,9) that organism search strategies naturally evolved in such a way that they exploit optimal Levy patterns.

Do protected areas mitigate the effects of fisheries-induced evolution on parental care behaviour of a recreationally-important teleost fish?

Human-induced selection on animals and plants has been highly influential throughout our history and resulted in both intentional benefits and unintended detriments. Fisheries-induced evolution (FIE) describes the unintended selection on wild fish populations by fishing that has resulted in the evolution of exploited populations. While the use of aquatic protected areas that exclude angling might be considered an evolutionarily-enlightened management approach to dealing with issues arising from FIE little is known about the effectiveness of this approach for maintaining the phenotypic diversity of traits in protected areas versus those outside of their boundaries. In species that exhibit parental care, including the largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides), active nest guarding and aggression towards potential brood predators by males increases the survival of offspring. This aggression may render these individuals particularly vulnerable to capture via angling as a result of increased propensity to attack fishing lures near their nests. Relative levels of aggression by these males during the parental care period correlate with their vulnerability to angling year round. Inasmuch as this parental behavior is heritable, this selective removal of more aggressive individuals by anglers should drive population-average phenotypes towards lower levels of aggression. To assess the effectiveness of protected areas at mitigating FIE, I compared the nest guarding behaviours of wild, free-swimming male bass during the early nesting period for bass within and outside protected areas. I found that nesting males within long-standing fishing sanctuaries (>70 yrs) were more aggressive towards captive bluegill sunfish (Lepomis macrochirus) placed directly on their nests, and patrolled larger areas around their nests compared to bass outside of sanctuaries. Males within protected areas were more likely to strike at artificial fishing lures and more prone to capture during experimental angling events. Collectively, my findings suggest that recreational angling selects for individual bass with lower levels of parental care and aggression, and that the establishment of protected areas may mitigate potential FIE. The extent to which this phenomenon occurs in other species and systems likely depends on the reproductive strategies of the fishes being considered, their spatial ecology relative to sanctuary boundaries, and habitat quality within protected areas.

An information approach to international currencies

Models of currency competition focus on the 5% of trading attributable to balance-of-payments flows. We introduce an information approach that focuses on the other 95%. Important departures from traditional models arise when transactions convey information. First, prices reveal different information depending on whether trades are direct or though vehicle currencies. Second, missing markets arise due to insufficiently symmetric information, rather than insufficient transactions scale. Third, the indeterminacy of equilibrium that arises in traditional models is resolved: currency trade patterns no longer concentrate arbitrarily on market size. Empirically, we provide a first analysis of transactions across a full market triangle: the euro, yen and US dollar. The estimated transaction effects on prices support the information approach.

On the Sources of Private Information in FX Markets

We investigate the source of information advantage in inter-dealer FX trading using data on trades and counterparty identities. In liquid dollar exchange rates, information is concentrated among dealers that trade most frequently and specialize their activity in a particular rate. In cross-rates, traders that engage in triangular arbitrage are best informed. Better-informed traders are also located on larger trading floors. In cross-rates, the ability to forecast flows explains all of the advantage of the triangular arbitrageurs. In liquid dollar rates, specialist traders can forecast both order flow and the component of exchange rate changes that is uncorrelated with flow.

Environmental context explains Levy and Brownian movement patterns of marine predators

An optimal search theory, the so-called Levy-flight foraging hypothesis(1), predicts that predators should adopt search strategies known as Levy flights where prey is sparse and distributed unpredictably, but that Brownian movement is sufficiently efficient for locating abundant prey(2-4). Empirical studies have generated controversy because the accuracy of statistical methods that have been used to identify Levy behaviour has recently been questioned(5,6). Consequently, whether foragers exhibit Levy flights in the wild remains unclear. Crucially, moreover, it has not been tested whether observed movement patterns across natural landscapes having different expected resource distributions conform to the theory's central predictions. Here we use maximum-likelihood methods to test for Levy patterns in relation to environmental gradients in the largest animal movement data set assembled for this purpose. Strong support was found for Levy search patterns across 14 species of open-ocean predatory fish (sharks, tuna, billfish and ocean sunfish), with some individuals switching between Levy and Brownian movement as they traversed different habitat types. We tested the spatial occurrence of these two principal patterns and found Levy behaviour to be associated with less productive waters (sparser prey) and Brownian movements to be associated with productive shelf or convergence-front habitats (abundant prey). These results are consistent with the Levy-flight foraging hypothesis(1,7), supporting the contention(8,9) that organism search strategies naturally evolved in such a way that they exploit optimal Levy patterns.

Order Flow and the Monetary Model of Exchange Rates: Evidence from a Novel Data Set

We propose an exchange rate model that is a hybrid of the conventional specification with monetary fundamentals and the Evans–Lyons microstructure approach. We estimate a model augmented with order flow variables, using a unique data set: almost 100 monthly observations on interdealer order flow on dollar/euro and dollar/yen. The augmented macroeconomic, or “hybrid,” model exhibits greater in-sample stability and out of sample forecasting improvement vis-à-vis the basic macroeconomic and random walk specifications.

Impact of Stressors on Child Welfare Supervisors

The death of children, intense media scrutiny, and million
dollar lawsuits are all potential stressors faced by child welfare professionals.
Despite this, very little research or literature has explored the specific
realities of stressors for the individual front-line child welfare supervisor.
Therefore, as a contribution to the field of child welfare practice, this paper
expands our understanding of this unique supervisory population
through a detailed examination of the literature. This review links theory
to practice through a series of case examples involving situations of child
welfare supervisors who have been affected by workplace stressors. The
paper provides both individual and organizational solutions to either prevent
or intervene in situations involving child welfare supervisors who may
be at risk of burnout and/or compassion fatigue.

Solvent induced phase inversion-based in situ forming controlled release drug delivery implants

In situ forming (ISF) drug delivery implants have gained tremendous levels of interest over the last few decades. This is due to their wide range of biomedical applications such as in tissue engineering, cell encapsulation, microfluidics, bioengineering and drug delivery. Drug delivery implants forming upon injection has shown a range of advantages which include localized drug delivery, easy and less invasive application, sustained drug action, ability to tailor drug delivery, reduction in side effects associated with systemic delivery and also improved patient compliance and comfort. Different factors such as temperature, pH, ions, and exchange of solvents are involved in in situ implant formation. This review especially focuses on ISF implants that are formed through solvent induced phase inversion (SPI) technique. The article critically reviews and compares a wide range of polymers, solvents, and co-solvents that have been used in SPI implant preparation for control release of a range of drug molecules. Major drawback of SPI systems has been their high burst release. In this regard, the article exhaustively discusses factors that affect the burst release and different modification strategies that has been utilised to reduce the burst effect from these implants. Performance and controversial issues associated with the use of different biocompatible solvents in SPI systems is also discussed. Biodegradation, formulation stability, methods of characterisation and sterilisation techniques of SPI systems is comprehensively reviewed. Furthermore, the review also examines current SPI-based marketed products, their therapeutic application and associated clinical data. It also exemplifies the interest of multi-billion dollar pharma companies worldwide for further developments of SPI systems to a range of therapeutic applications. The authors believe that this will be the first review article that extensively investigate and discusses studies done to date on SPI systems. In so doing, this article will undoubtedly serve as an enlightening tool for the scientists working in the concerned area.

Is China's fifth-largest inland lake to dry-up? Incorporated hydrological and satellite-based methods for forecasting Hulun Lake water levels

Hulun Lake, China's fifth-largest inland lake, experienced severe declines in water level in the period of 2000-2010. This has prompted concerns whether the lake is drying up gradually. A multi-million US dollar engineering project to construct a water channel to transfer part of the river flow from a nearby river to maintain the water level was completed in August 2010. This study aimed to advance the understanding of the key processes controlling the lake water level variation over the last five decades, as well as investigate the impact of the river transfer engineering project on the water level. A water balance model was developed to investigate the lake water level variations over the last five decades, using hydrological and climatic data as well as satellite-based measurements and results from land surface modelling. The investigation reveals that the severe reduction of river discharge (-364±64 mm/yr, ∼70% of the five-decade average) into the lake was the key factor behind the decline of the lake water level between 2000 and 2010. The decline of river discharge was due to the reduction of total runoff from the lake watershed. This was a result of the reduction of soil moisture due to the decrease of precipitation (-49±45 mm/yr) over this period. The water budget calculation suggests that the groundwater component from the surrounding lake area as well as surface run off from the un-gauged area surrounding the lake contributed ∼ net 210 Mm3/yr (equivalent to ∼ 100 mm/yr) water inflows into the lake. The results also show that the water diversion project did prevent a further water level decline of over 0.5 m by the end of 2012. Overall, the monthly water balance model gave an excellent prediction of the lake water level fluctuation over the last five decades and can be a useful tool to manage lake water resources in the future.

Seeking the sun in deep, dark places: mesopelagic sightings of ocean sunfishes (Molidae)

Evidence is presented from publicly available remotely operated vehicle (ROV) footage that suggests deep-water ranging in ocean sunfishes (family Molidae) is more common than typically thought, including a new maximum depth recorded for the southern sunfish Mola ramsayi.

Willingness to pay for cataract surgery in rural Southern China.

PURPOSE: To study willingness to pay for cataract surgery, and its associations, in Southern China. DESIGN: Cross-sectional willingness-to-pay interview incorporating elements of the open-ended and bidding formats. PARTICIPANTS: Three-hundred thirty-nine persons presenting for cataract screening in Yangjiang, China, with presenting visual acuity (VA) < or = 6/60 in either eye due to cataract. METHODS: Subjects underwent measurement of their VA and a willingness-to-pay interview. Age, gender, literacy, education, and annual income also were recorded. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Maximum amount that the subjects would be willing to pay for cataract surgery. RESULTS: Among 325 (95.9%) subjects completing the interview, 169 (52.0%) were 70 years or older, 213 (65.5%) were women, and 217 (66.8%) had an annual income of <5000 renminbi (5000 = US 625 dollars). Eighty percent (n = 257) of participants were willing to pay something for surgery (mean, 442+/-444 renminbi [US 55 dollars+/-55]). In regression models, older subjects were willing to pay less (8 renminbi [US 1 dollar] per year of age; P = 0.01). Blind subjects were significantly more likely (odds ratio, 5.7; 95% confidence interval, 1.7-19.3) to pay anything for surgery, but would pay on average 255 renminbi (US 32 dollars) less (P = 0.004). Persons at the highest annual income level (>10,000 renminbi [US 1250 dollars]) would pay 50 dollars more for surgery than those at the lowest level (<5000 renminbi) (P = 0.0003). The current cost of surgery in this program is 500 renminbi (US 63 dollars). CONCLUSIONS: Sustainable programs will need to attract younger, more well-to-do persons with better vision, while still providing access to the neediest patients.