Empirical Bayes method in the study of traffic safety via heterogeneous negative multinomial model

In the study of traffic safety, expected crash frequencies across sites are generally estimated via the negative binomial model, assuming time invariant safety. Since the time invariant safety assumption may be invalid, Hauer (1997) proposed a modified empirical Bayes (EB) method. Despite the modification, no attempts have been made to examine the generalisable form of the marginal distribution resulting from the modified EB framework. Because the hyper-parameters needed to apply the modified EB method are not readily available, an assessment is lacking on how accurately the modified EB method estimates safety in the presence of the time variant safety and regression-to-the-mean (RTM) effects. This study derives the closed form marginal distribution, and reveals that the marginal distribution in the modified EB method is equivalent to the negative multinomial (NM) distribution, which is essentially the same as the likelihood function used in the random effects Poisson model. As a result, this study shows that the gamma posterior distribution from the multivariate Poisson-gamma mixture can be estimated using the NM model or the random effects Poisson model. This study also shows that the estimation errors from the modified EB method are systematically smaller than those from the comparison group method by simultaneously accounting for the RTM and time variant safety effects. Hence, the modified EB method via the NM model is a generalisable method for estimating safety in the presence of the time variant safety and the RTM effects.

Performance comparison of VSC-based shunt and series compensators used for load voltage control in distribution systems

In this paper, the performance of voltage-source converter-based shunt and series compensators used for load voltage control in electrical power distribution systems has been analyzed and compared, when a nonlinear load is connected across the load bus. The comparison has been made based on the closed-loop frequency resopnse characteristics of the compensated distribution system. A distribution static compensator (DSTATCOM) as a shunt device and a dynamic voltage restorer (DVR) as a series device are considered in the voltage-control mode for the comparison. The power-quality problems which these compensator address include voltage sags/swells, load voltage harmonic distortions, and unbalancing. The effect of various system parameters on the control performance of the compensator can be studied using the proposed analysis. In particular, the performance of the two compensators are compared with the strong ac supply (stiff source) and weak ac-supply (non-still source) distribution system. The experimental verification of the analytical results derived has been obtained using a laboratory model of the single-phase DSTATCOM and DVR. A generalized converter topology using a cascaded multilevel inverter has been proposed for the medium-voltage distribution system. Simulation studies have been performed in the PSCAD/EMTDC software to verify the results in the three-phase system.

Optimal voltage support mechanism in distribution networks

Optimal scheduling of voltage regulators (VRs), fixed and switched capacitors and voltage on customer side of transformer (VCT) along with the optimal allocaton of VRs and capacitors are performed using a hybrid optimisation method based on discrete particle swarm optimisation and genetic algorithm. Direct optimisation of the tap position is not appropriate since in general the high voltage (HV) side voltage is not known. Therefore, the tap setting can be determined give the optimal VCT once the HV side voltage is known. The objective function is composed of the distribution line loss cost, the peak power loss cost and capacitors' and VRs' capital, operation and maintenance costs. The constraints are limits on bus voltage and feeder current along with VR taps. The bus voltage should be maintained within the standard level and the feeder current should not exceed the feeder-rated current. The taps are to adjust the output voltage of VRs between 90 and 110% of their input voltages. For validation of the proposed method, the 18-bus IEEE system is used. The results are compared with prior publications to illustrate the benefit of the employed technique. The results also show that the lowest cost planning for voltage profile will be achieved if a combination of capacitors, VRs and VCTs is considered.

Digital dawn : a revolution in movie distribution?

How will the digital technology revolution impact the movie business? Hollywood developed a highly successful industrial system that has functioned well for almost a century in the sense that it enabled the Major film studios to largely control and dominate the industry. However, the new digital technology may now be propelling Hollywood toward the biggest technological transition since the creation of the studio system almost a century ago. For example, Major Hollywood studios are already beginning to provide video-on-demand (VOD) digital distribution of movies over the Internet. This article examines what is happening, and why. It sets out the background and the incipient changes already occurring. It makes an argument regarding the fundamental strategic dynamics, that acetate film was the key to the control of the Hollywood system, and speculates about how a shift away from acetate film to digital video may transform that system. The focus is on the impact on how the Major studios release and market their movies, and how new market and marketing opportunities for the low-budget independent filmmaking sector may arise.

Body-site distribution of skin cancer, pre-malignant and common benign pigmented lesions excised in general practice

Background Concern about skin cancer is a common reason for people from predominantly fair-skinned populations to present to primary care doctors. Objectives To examine the frequency and body-site distribution of malignant, pre-malignant and benign pigmented skin lesions excised in primary care. Methods This prospective study conducted in Queensland, Australia, included 154 primary care doctors. For all excised or biopsied lesions, doctors recorded the patient's age and sex, body site, level of patient pressure to excise, and the clinical diagnosis. Histological confirmation was obtained through pathology laboratories. Results Of 9650 skin lesions, 57·7% were excised in males and 75·0% excised in patients ≥50years. The most common diagnoses were basal cell carcinoma (BCC) (35·1%) and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) (19·7%). Compared with the whole body, the highest densities for SCC, BCC and actinic keratoses were observed on chronically sun-exposed areas of the body including the face in males and females, the scalp and ears in males, and the hands in females. The density of BCC was also high on intermittently or rarely exposed body sites. Females, younger patients and patients with melanocytic naevi were significantly more likely to exert moderate/high levels of pressure on the doctor to excise. Conclusions More than half the excised lesions were skin cancer, which mostly occurred on the more chronically sun-exposed areas of the body. Information on the type and body-site distribution of skin lesions can aid in the diagnosis and planned management of skin cancer and other skin lesions commonly presented in primary care.

A trial of the distribution of chlamydia self-collection postal specimen kits from Australian community pharmacies

We explored the feasibility of community pharmacies for the distribution of chlamydia specimen self-collection kits, which featured a transport medium allowing postage of urine specimens in Australia. Eligible clients were requested to complete a code-matched risk-screening questionnaire in the pharmacy, and the derived risk scores were compared to the test results from the corresponding specimen. Four Queensland pharmacies distributed 156 kits, while 44 questionnaires and 18 specimens were received.

On the empirical eigenvalue distribution of slotted amplify-and-forward relaying protocol model

In this paper we consider the case of large cooperative communication systems where terminals use the protocol known as slotted amplify-and-forward protocol to aid the source in its transmission. Using the perturbation expansion methods of resolvents and large deviation techniques we obtain an expression for the Stieltjes transform of the asymptotic eigenvalue distribution of a sample covariance random matrix of the type HH† where H is the channel matrix of the transmission model for the transmission protocol we consider. We prove that the resulting expression is similar to the Stieltjes transform in its quadratic equation form for the Marcenko-Pastur distribution.

Intelligent distribution planning and control incorporating microgrids

This paper proposes a comprehensive approach to the planning of distribution networks and the control of microgrids. Firstly, a Modified Discrete Particle Swarm Optimization (MDPSO) method is used to optimally plan a distribution system upgrade over a 20 year planning period. The optimization is conducted at different load levels according to the anticipated load duration curve and integrated over the system lifetime in order to minimize its total lifetime cost. Since the optimal solution contains Distributed Generators (DGs) to maximize reliability, the DG must be able to operate in islanded mode and this leads to the concept of microgrids. Thus the second part of the paper reviews some of the challenges of microgrid control in the presence of both inertial (rotating direct connected) and non-inertial (converter interfaced) DGs. More specifically enhanced control strategies based on frequency droop are proposed for DGs to improve the smooth synchronization and real power sharing minimizing transient oscillations in the microgrid. Simulation studies are presented to show the effectiveness of the control.