Robust effect sizes and their confidence intervals for group difference between trajectories in hierarchical linear growth model

Hierarchical linear growth model (HLGM), as a flexible and powerful analytic method, has played an increased important role in psychology, public health and medical sciences in recent decades. Mostly, researchers who conduct HLGM are interested in the treatment effect on individual trajectories, which can be indicated by the cross-level interaction effects. However, the statistical hypothesis test for the effect of cross-level interaction in HLGM only show us whether there is a significant group difference in the average rate of change, rate of acceleration or higher polynomial effect; it fails to convey information about the magnitude of the difference between the group trajectories at specific time point. Thus, reporting and interpreting effect sizes have been increased emphases in HLGM in recent years, due to the limitations and increased criticisms for statistical hypothesis testing. However, most researchers fail to report these model-implied effect sizes for group trajectories comparison and their corresponding confidence intervals in HLGM analysis, since lack of appropriate and standard functions to estimate effect sizes associated with the model-implied difference between grouping trajectories in HLGM, and also lack of computing packages in the popular statistical software to automatically calculate them. ^ The present project is the first to establish the appropriate computing functions to assess the standard difference between grouping trajectories in HLGM. We proposed the two functions to estimate effect sizes on model-based grouping trajectories difference at specific time, we also suggested the robust effect sizes to reduce the bias of estimated effect sizes. Then, we applied the proposed functions to estimate the population effect sizes (d ) and robust effect sizes (du) on the cross-level interaction in HLGM by using the three simulated datasets, and also we compared the three methods of constructing confidence intervals around d and du recommended the best one for application. At the end, we constructed 95% confidence intervals with the suitable method for the effect sizes what we obtained with the three simulated datasets. ^ The effect sizes between grouping trajectories for the three simulated longitudinal datasets indicated that even though the statistical hypothesis test shows no significant difference between grouping trajectories, effect sizes between these grouping trajectories can still be large at some time points. Therefore, effect sizes between grouping trajectories in HLGM analysis provide us additional and meaningful information to assess group effect on individual trajectories. In addition, we also compared the three methods to construct 95% confident intervals around corresponding effect sizes in this project, which handled with the uncertainty of effect sizes to population parameter. We suggested the noncentral t-distribution based method when the assumptions held, and the bootstrap bias-corrected and accelerated method when the assumptions are not met.^

A study of hail production in a supercell storm using a doppler derived wind field and a numerical hail growth model /

Mode of access: Internet.

Proceedings of the Second International Atomic Energy Agency Specialists' Meeting on Subcritical Crack Growth, held at Sendai, Japan, May 15-17, 1985 /

"MEA-2090."

Optimal price regulation in a growth model with monopolistic suppliers of intermediate goods

In this paper we investigate the trade-off faced by regulators who must set a price for an intermediate good somewhere between the marginal cost and the monopoly price. We utilize a growth model with monopolistic suppliers of intermediate goods. Investment in innovation is required to produce a new intermediate good. Marginal cost pricing deters innovation, while monopoly pricing maximizes innovation and economic growth at the cost of some static inefficiency. We demonstrate the existence of a second-best price above the marginal cost but below the monopoly price, which maximizes consumer welfare. Simulation results suggest that substantial reductions in consumption, production, growth, and welfare occur where regulators focus on static efficiency issues by setting prices at or near marginal cost.

The mechanics of creep crack growth in a Magnox alloy

Magnox AL80 has been used for a study of creep crack propagation. A number of variables have been considered such as specimen geometry,notch root radius, material thickness, creep prestrain and stress level.The work has covered the material behaving under two values of the creep exponent, n=3.5 and n=7, according to the stress level. As well as observing initiation times and crack growth rates, scribed grids have been used to examine the near crack tip strain levels and distributions. It was shown that estimations of COD from notch flank opening can give misleading indications of material behaviour and that a more informative method was to monitor displacements in the material surrounding the crack tip. Strong evidence was found for crack advance being displacement controlled, however it was shown that the COD approach should be considered geometry dependant. The summation of ∈xx and ∈yy provided the most successful description of crack advance as it produced a single value that described propagation in all the cases concidered. The strain distributions indicates that σyy was related to distance from a point ahead of the crack tip by the exponent - (l/n+l) and that σxx is proportional to σyy. The constraint stresses arising in the DEN and CN specimens were evaluated. Initiation time was found to be principally affected by the stress level but was modified by the constraints arising from specimen geometry. Crack growth was found not to obey either the empirical K or σpett relationships but was reviewed in context of the observed strain behaviour.

Memory effects in a non-equilibrium growth model

We study memory effects in a kinetic roughening model. For d=1, a different dynamic scaling is uncovered in the memory dominated phases; the Kardar-Parisi-Zhang scaling is restored in the absence of noise. dc=2 represents the critical dimension where memory is shown to smoothen the roughening front (a=0). Studies on a discrete atomistic model in the same universality class reconfirm the analytical results in the large time limit, while a different scaling behavior shows up for tmodel. Results can be generalized for other nonconservative systems.

The development and stability analysis of a nonlinear growth model for microorganisms

A nonlinear dynamic model of microbial growth is established based on the theories of the diffusion response of thermodynamics and the chemotactic response of biology. Except for the two traditional variables, i.e. the density of bacteria and the concentration of attractant, the pH value, a crucial influencing factor to the microbial growth, is also considered in this model. The pH effect on the microbial growth is taken as a Gaussian function G0e-(f- fc)2/G1, where G0, G1 and fc are constants, f represents the pH value and fc represents the critical pH value that best fits for microbial growth. To study the effects of the reproduction rate of the bacteria and the pH value on the stability of the system, three parameters a, G0 and G1 are studied in detail, where a denotes the reproduction rate of the bacteria, G0 denotes the impacting intensity of the pH value to microbial growth and G1 denotes the bacterial adaptability to the pH value. When the effect of the pH value of the solution which microorganisms live in is ignored in the governing equations of the model, the microbial system is more stable with larger a. When the effect of the bacterial chemotaxis is ignored, the microbial system is more stable with the larger G1 and more unstable with the larger G0 for f0 > fc. However, the stability of the microbial system is almost unaffected by the variation G0 and G1 and it is always stable for f0 < fc under the assumed conditions in this paper. In the whole system model, it is more unstable with larger G1 and more stable with larger G0 for f0 < fc. The system is more stable with larger G1 and more unstable with larger G0 for f0 > fc. However, the system is more unstable with larger a for f0 < fc and the stability of the system is almost unaffected by a for f0 > fc. The results obtained in this study provide a biophysical insight into the understanding of the growth and stability behavior of microorganisms.

Crack-growth of medical-grade silicone using pure shear tests

Silicone elastomers are commonly used in the manufacture of single-piece joint replacement implants for the finger joints. However, the survivorship of these implants can be poor, with failure typically occurring from fracture of the stems. The aim of this paper was to investigate the crack growth of medical-grade silicone using pure shear tests. Two medical-grade silicones (C6-180 and Med82-5010-80) were tested. Each sample had a 20 mm crack introduced and was subjected to a sinusoidally varying tensile strain, with a minimum of 0 per cent and a maximum in the range 10 to 77 per cent. Testing was undertaken at a frequency of 10 Hz. At various times during testing, the testing machine was stopped, the number of cycles completed was noted, and the crack length measured. Graphs of crack length against number of cycles were plotted, as well as the crack growth rate against tearing energy. The results show that Med82-5010-80 is more crack resistant than C6-180. Graphs of crack growth rate against tearing energy can be used to predict the failure of these medical-grade elastomers.

Influence of macroscopic residual stress fields on fatigue crack growth measurement in SiC particulate reinforced 8090 aluminium alloy

The effect of residual stresses, induced by cold water quenching, on the morphology of fatigue crack fronts has been investigated in a powder metallurgy 8090 aluminium alloy, with and without reinforcement in the form of 20 wt-%SiC particles. Residual stress measurements reveal that the surface compressive stresses developed in these materials are significantly greater than in conventional metallurgy ingot 8090, because surface yielding occurs on quenching. The yield stresses of the powder route materials are greater than those of ingot produced 8090 and hence greater surface stresses can be maintained. In fatigue, severe crack front bowing is observed in the powder formed materials as a result of the reduction of the R ratio (minimum load/maximum load) by the compressive residual stresses at the sides of the specimen, causing premature crack closure and hence reducing the local driving force for fatigue crack growth ΔKeff. This distortion of the crack fronts introduces large errors into measurements of crack growth rate and threshold values of ΔK.

Fatigue crack growth behaviour in molten-metal processed SiC particle-reinforced aluminium alloys

Fatigue crack initiation and subsequent short crack growth behaviour of 2014-5wt%SiC aluminium alloy composites has been examined in 4-point bend loading using smooth bar specimens. The growth rates of long fatigue cracks have also been measured at different stress ratios using pre-cracked specimens. The distributions of SiC particles and of coarse constituent particles in the matrix (which arise as a result of the molten-metal processing and relatively slow cooling rate) have been investigated. Preferential crack initiation sites were found to be SiC-matrix interfaces, SiC particles associated with constituent particles and the coarse constituent particles themselves. For microstructurally short cracks the dispersed SiC particles also act as temporary crack arresters. In the long crack growth tests, higher fatigue crack growth rates were obtained than for monolithic alloys. This effect is attributed to the contribution of void formation, due to the decohesion of SiC particles, to the fatigue crack growth process in the composite. Above crack depths of about 200 μm 'short' crack growth rates were in good agreement with the long crack data, showing a Pris exponent, m = 4 in both cases. For the long crack and short crack growth tests little effect of specimen orientation and grain size was observed on fatigue crack growth rates, but, specimen orientation affected the toughness. No effect of stress ratio in the range R = 0.2-0.5 was seen for long crack data in the Paris region.

Comparison of crack growth behaviour between spray-formed and commercial plate Al-Zn-Mg-Cu alloy 7150

This paper compares the crack growth resistance of an experimental spray-formed extrusion with that of a commercial aluminium alloy, the two alloys having similar compositions but markedly different grain structures. Tensile and fracture behaviour is similar in both materials and is influenced by inclusion content. The two materials differ in their crack growth resistance, which is shown to be dependent upon grain size and shape. Environmentally-induced crack growth is favoured by aligned grain boundaries and small grain size.

The influence of ageing on fatigue crack growth in SiC-particulate reinforced 8090

A study of the influence of SiC-particulate reinforcement on ageing and subsequent fatigue crack growth resistance in a powder metallurgy 8090 aluminium alloy-SiC composite has been made. Macroscopic hardness measurements revealed that ageing at 170°C in the composite is accelerated with respect to the unreinforced alloy, though TEM studies indicate that this is not due to the enhanced precipitation of S′. Fatigue crack growth rates in the naturally aged condition of the composite and unreinforced matrix are similar at low to medium values of ΔK, but diverge above ≈ 8 MPa√m owing to the lower fracture toughness of the composite. As a result of the presence of the reinforcement, planar slip in the composite is suppressed and facetted crack growth is not observed. Ageing at or above 170°C has a deleterious effect on fatigue crack growth. Increased ageing time decreases the roughness of the fracture path at higher growth rates. These effect are though to be due to microstructural changes occurring at or near to the SiC/matrix interfaces, providing sites for static mode failure mechanisms to operate. This suggestion is supported by the observation that as ΔK increases, crack growth rates become Kmax dependent, implying the crack growth rate is strongly influenced by static modes.

The influence of a coal gasifier atmosphere on fatigue crack growth rates in BS 4360 steel

Fatigue crack growth tests have been carried out in a number of gaseous environments in order to assess their effects on the crack propagation resistance of BS 4360 grade 50EE, a weldable structural steel. Crack growth rates at 25 °C are up to 20 times higher in hydrogen than in air, but there is no effect when hydrogen is present as a 30% constituent of a simplified product gas (SPG). Indeed, crack growth rates in such a mixture are slightly lower than those measured in air, being comparable with those observed in an inert environment. The other gases present in the SPG are CO, CO2 and CH4, and it is probable that the carbon monoxide is responsible for nullifying the embrittling effects of hydrogen, by preferentially adsorbing on to the surface of the steel and thus blocking hydrogen entry. Experimental observations suggest that oxygen has the same effect when small quantities are allowed to diffuse into a non-flowing hydrogen environment around a propagating crack. The results are encouraging in terms of the suitability of conventional structural steels such as BS 4360 for gas plant applications. The gas mixtures present in such an environment would not have the severe detrimental effects on fatigue crack growth resistance which result from the presence of 'pure' hydrogen. © 1993.