Point Process Methodology for On-line Spatio-temporal Disease Surveillance

The AEGISS (Ascertainment and Enhancement of Gastrointestinal Infection Surveillance and Statistics) project aims to use spatio-temporal statistical methods to identify anomalies in the space-time distribution of non-specific, gastrointestinal infections in the UK, using the Southampton area in southern England as a test-case. In this paper, we use the AEGISS project to illustrate how spatio-temporal point process methodology can be used in the development of a rapid-response, spatial surveillance system. Current surveillance of gastroenteric disease in the UK relies on general practitioners reporting cases of suspected food-poisoning through a statutory notification scheme, voluntary laboratory reports of the isolation of gastrointestinal pathogens and standard reports of general outbreaks of infectious intestinal disease by public health and environmental health authorities. However, most statutory notifications are made only after a laboratory reports the isolation of a gastrointestinal pathogen. As a result, detection is delayed and the ability to react to an emerging outbreak is reduced. For more detailed discussion, see Diggle et al. (2003). A new and potentially valuable source of data on the incidence of non-specific gastro-enteric infections in the UK is NHS Direct, a 24-hour phone-in clinical advice service. NHS Direct data are less likely than reports by general practitioners to suffer from spatially and temporally localized inconsistencies in reporting rates. Also, reporting delays by patients are likely to be reduced, as no appointments are needed. Against this, NHS Direct data sacrifice specificity. Each call to NHS Direct is classified only according to the general pattern of reported symptoms (Cooper et al, 2003). The current paper focuses on the use of spatio-temporal statistical analysis for early detection of unexplained variation in the spatio-temporal incidence of non-specific gastroenteric symptoms, as reported to NHS Direct. Section 2 describes our statistical formulation of this problem, the nature of the available data and our approach to predictive inference. Section 3 describes the stochastic model. Section 4 gives the results of fitting the model to NHS Direct data. Section 5 shows how the model is used for spatio-temporal prediction. The paper concludes with a short discussion.

Development of a direct evaporation bismuth Hall thruster

Hall thrusters have been under active development around the world since the 1960’s. Thrusters using traditional propellants such as xenon have been flown on a variety of satellite orbit raising and maintenance missions with an excellent record. To expand the mission envelope, it is necessary to lower the specific impulse of the thrusters but xenon and krypton are poor performers at specific impulses below 1,200 seconds. To enhance low specific impulse performance, this dissertation examines the development of a Hall-effect thruster which uses bismuth as a propellant. Bismuth, the heaviest non-radioactive element, holds many advantages over noble gas propellants from an energetics as well as a practical economic standpoint. Low ionization energy, large electron-impact crosssection and high atomic mass make bismuth ideal for low-specific impulse applications. The primary disadvantage lies in the high temperatures which are required to generate the bismuth vapors. Previous efforts carried out in the Soviet Union relied upon the complete bismuth vaporization and gas phase delivery to the anode. While this proved successful, the power required to vaporize and maintain gas phase throughout the mass flow system quickly removed many of the efficiency gains expected from using bismuth. To solve these problems, a unique method of delivering liquid bismuth to the anode has been developed. Bismuth is contained within a hollow anode reservoir that is capped by a porous metallic disc. By utilizing the inherent waste heat generated in a Hall thruster, liquid bismuth is evaporated and the vapors pass through the porous disc into the discharge chamber. Due to the high temperatures and material compatibility requirements, the anode was fabricated out of pure molybdenum. The porous vaporizer was not available commercially so a method of creating a refractory porous plate with 40-50% open porosity was developed. Molybdenum also does not respond well to most forms of welding so a diffusion bonding process was also developed to join the molybdenum porous disc to the molybdenum anode. Operation of the direct evaporation bismuth Hall thruster revealed interesting phenomenon. By utilizing constant current mode on a discharge power supply, the discharge voltage settles out to a stable operating point which is a function of discharge current, anode face area and average pore size on the vaporizer. Oscillations with a 40 second period were also observed. Preliminary performance data suggests that the direct evaporation bismuth Hall thruster performs similar to xenon and krypton Hall thrusters. Plume interrogation with a Retarding Potential Analyzer confirmed that bismuth ions were being efficiently accelerated while Faraday probe data gave a view of the ion density in the exhausted plume.

Analysis of a Non-Traditional Micro Tube Hydroforming Process

As the demand for miniature products and components continues to increase, the need for manufacturing processes to provide these products and components has also increased. To meet this need, successful macroscale processes are being scaled down and applied at the microscale. Unfortunately, many challenges have been experienced when directly scaling down macro processes. Initially, frictional effects were believed to be the largest challenge encountered. However, in recent studies it has been found that the greatest challenge encountered has been with size effects. Size effect is a broad term that largely refers to the thickness of the material being formed and how this thickness directly affects the product dimensions and manufacturability. At the microscale, the thickness becomes critical due to the reduced number of grains. When surface contact between the forming tools and the material blanks occur at the macroscale, there is enough material (hundreds of layers of material grains) across the blank thickness to compensate for material flow and the effect of grain orientation. At the microscale, there may be under 10 grains across the blank thickness. With a decreased amount of grains across the thickness, the influence of the grain size, shape and orientation is significant. Any material defects (either natural occurring or ones that occur as a result of the material preparation) have a significant role in altering the forming potential. To date, various micro metal forming and micro materials testing equipment setups have been constructed at the Michigan Tech lab. Initially, the research focus was to create a micro deep drawing setup to potentially build micro sensor encapsulation housings. The research focus shifted to micro metal materials testing equipment setups. These include the construction and testing of the following setups: a micro mechanical bulge test, a micro sheet tension test (testing micro tensile bars), a micro strain analysis (with the use of optical lithography and chemical etching) and a micro sheet hydroforming bulge test. Recently, the focus has shifted to study a micro tube hydroforming process. The intent is to target fuel cells, medical, and sensor encapsulation applications. While the tube hydroforming process is widely understood at the macroscale, the microscale process also offers some significant challenges in terms of size effects. Current work is being conducted in applying direct current to enhance micro tube hydroforming formability. Initially, adding direct current to various metal forming operations has shown some phenomenal results. The focus of current research is to determine the validity of this process.

DEVELOPMENT OF A PREDICTIVE COMBUSTION MODEL OF A SPARK IGNITED ENGINE WITH GASOLINE DIRECT INJECTION, VARIABLE VALVE TIMING, DURATION AND LIFT TECHNOLOGIES

There is a need by engine manufactures for computationally efficient and accurate predictive combustion modeling tools for integration in engine simulation software for the assessment of combustion system hardware designs and early development of engine calibrations. This thesis discusses the process for the development and validation of a combustion modeling tool for Gasoline Direct Injected Spark Ignited Engine with variable valve timing, lift and duration valvetrain hardware from experimental data. Data was correlated and regressed from accepted methods for calculating the turbulent flow and flame propagation characteristics for an internal combustion engine. A non-linear regression modeling method was utilized to develop a combustion model to determine the fuel mass burn rate at multiple points during the combustion process. The computational fluid dynamic software Converge ©, was used to simulate and correlate the 3-D combustion system, port and piston geometry to the turbulent flow development within the cylinder to properly predict the experimental data turbulent flow parameters through the intake, compression and expansion processes. The engine simulation software GT-Power © is then used to determine the 1-D flow characteristics of the engine hardware being tested to correlate the regressed combustion modeling tool to experimental data to determine accuracy. The results of the combustion modeling tool show accurate trends capturing the combustion sensitivities to turbulent flow, thermodynamic and internal residual effects with changes in intake and exhaust valve timing, lift and duration.

Factors influencing the quality of the consultation process

Sport psychology services have become to be an important brick stone when building athletic success. The strive for better performance is not only a characteristic of athletes, but of the whole support system in top level sport including sport psychology. Sport psychology consultants are permanently challenged to deliver highest quality services to their clients if they do not want to lose their contracts. Sport psychologists are continuously improving their consulting skills, learn new intervention techniques, read scientific papers and, last but not least, gain experience by accumulating hours of deliberate practice (Ericsson) in sport psychology. Even with increasing experience, the consultant has a certain number of degrees of freedom and has to make a series of decisions about how he or she wants to work. Quality, however, depends on a number of issues, and not all of them are under direct control of the consultant. It is argued that, in order for these choices being good, the following factors - among others - must be considered: Who is seeking assistance? What are the "issues and problems" (Gardner & Moore, 2006) the athlete is confronted with? What kind of approaches do fit with the client's need? Who is the 'client' the sport psychologist is supposed to work with? If it is a team, is the sport psychologist supposed to work with a number of individuals, with the coach, or with the whole system? Where are the boundaries of the system? What is the role of the sport psychologist in the sport system? All these issues directly affect the process and outcome quality of the sport psychology consultant. A sound theoretical basis, in connection with a distinct philosophy of the intervention, is an important cornerstone for the quality of sport psychology consultation.

Direct Democracy: Protest Catalyst or Protest Alternative?

This paper presents the first investigation of whether direct democracy supplements or undermines the attendance of demonstrations as a form of protest behavior. A first approach assumes that direct democracy is associated with fewer protests, as they function as a valve that integrates voters’ opinions, preferences, and emotions into the political process. A competing hypothesis proposes a positive relationship between direct democracy and this unconventional form of political participation due to educative effects. Drawing on individual data from recent Swiss Electoral Studies, we apply multilevel analysis and estimate a hierarchical model of the effect of the presence as well as the use of direct democratic institutions on individual protest behavior. Our empirical findings suggest that the political opportunity of direct democracy is associated with a lower individual probability to attend demonstrations.

Host factors in metastasis: Direct lysis of bloodborne metastatic tumor cells by murine vascular endothelial cells

During the process of cancer metastasis, the majority of circulating tumor cells arrest in microcapillary beds and then rapidly die. To study whether vascular endothelial cells can directly lyse tumor cells, we isolated vascular endothelial cells by perfusion of lungs from immunocompetent or nude mice. The cells were grown in culture, and then cloned and characterized. Cloned endothelial cells were incubated with several lymphokines and cytokines. Cells incubated with IFN-$\gamma$ and TNF lysed a variety of tumor cells with different metastatic potential. Mouse skin and lung fibroblasts treated with the same cytokines did not. Endothelial cell mediated tumor cell lysis was not due to different binding ability of tumor cells to cytokine treated and untreated endothelial monolayers. Kinetic studies demonstrated that the continuous presence of cytokines in the tumor-endothelial cocultures was necessary to produce maximal lysis of tumor cells. Target cell lysis was not due to the direct effects of IFN-$\gamma$ or TNF, since vascular endothelial cells isolated from the lung of nude mice lysed human melanoma cells that are sensitive or resistant to TNF. Cytokine treated endothelial cells produced a high level of nitric oxide, which is known to be cytotoxic to a variety of target cells. The level of nitric oxide production was directly correlated with the degree of tumor cell lysis. A specific inhibitor of nitric oxide synthesis(N$\sp{\rm G}$-monomethyl-L-arginine), completely inhibited production of nitric oxide and tumor cell lysis. Treatment of cytokine activated endothelial cells with dexamethasone also inhibited tumor cell lysis. This inhibition was independent of tumor-endothelial adhesion but correlated with inhibition of nitric oxide production. Collectively, these results suggest that vascular endothelial cells can directly destory tumor emboli and thus play an active role in the pathogenesis of cancer metastasis. ^

Beamlet based direct aperture optimization for MERT using a photon MLC

PURPOSE A beamlet based direct aperture optimization (DAO) for modulated electron radiotherapy (MERT) using photon multileaf collimator (pMLC) shaped electron fields is developed and investigated. METHODS The Swiss Monte Carlo Plan (SMCP) allows the calculation of dose distributions for pMLC shaped electron beams. SMCP is interfaced with the Eclipse TPS (Varian Medical Systems, Palo Alto, CA) which can thus be included into the inverse treatment planning process for MERT. This process starts with the import of a CT-scan into Eclipse, the contouring of the target and the organs at risk (OARs), and the choice of the initial electron beam directions. For each electron beam, the number of apertures, their energy, and initial shape are defined. Furthermore, the DAO requires dose-volume constraints for the structures contoured. In order to carry out the DAO efficiently, the initial electron beams are divided into a grid of beamlets. For each of those, the dose distribution is precalculated using a modified electron beam model, resulting in a dose list for each beamlet and energy. Then the DAO is carried out, leading to a set of optimal apertures and corresponding weights. These optimal apertures are now converted into pMLC shaped segments and the dose calculation for each segment is performed. For these dose distributions, a weight optimization process is launched in order to minimize the differences between the dose distribution using the optimal apertures and the pMLC segments. Finally, a deliverable dose distribution for the MERT plan is obtained and loaded back into Eclipse for evaluation. For an idealized water phantom geometry, a MERT treatment plan is created and compared to the plan obtained using a previously developed forward planning strategy. Further, MERT treatment plans for three clinical situations (breast, chest wall, and parotid metastasis of a squamous cell skin carcinoma) are created using the developed inverse planning strategy. The MERT plans are compared to clinical standard treatment plans using photon beams and the differences between the optimal and the deliverable dose distributions are determined. RESULTS For the idealized water phantom geometry, the inversely optimized MERT plan is able to obtain the same PTV coverage, but with an improved OAR sparing compared to the forwardly optimized plan. Regarding the right-sided breast case, the MERT plan is able to reduce the lung volume receiving more than 30% of the prescribed dose and the mean lung dose compared to the standard plan. However, the standard plan leads to a better homogeneity within the CTV. The results for the left-sided thorax wall are similar but also the dose to the heart is reduced comparing MERT to the standard treatment plan. For the parotid case, MERT leads to lower doses for almost all OARs but to a less homogeneous dose distribution for the PTV when compared to a standard plan. For all cases, the weight optimization successfully minimized the differences between the optimal and the deliverable dose distribution. CONCLUSIONS A beamlet based DAO using multiple beam angles is implemented and successfully tested for an idealized water phantom geometry and clinical situations.

Foreign Direct Investment in Agriculture: Land Grab or Food Security Improvement?

“Large-scale acquisition of land by foreign investors” is the correct term for a process where the verdict of guilt is often quicker than the examination. But is there something really new about land grab except in its extent? In comparison with colonial and post-colonial plantation operations, should foreign investors today behave differently? We generally accept coffee and banana exports as pro-growth and pro-development, just as for cars, beef and insurance. What then is wrong with an investment contract allowing the holder to buy a farm and to export wheat to Saudi Arabia, or soybeans and maize as cattle feed to Korea, or to plant and process sugar cane and palm oil into ethanol for Europe and China? Assuming their land acquisition was legal, should foreigners respect more than investment contracts and national legislation? And why would they not take advantage of the legal protection offered by international investment law and treaties, not to speak of concessional finance, infrastructure and technical cooperation by a development bank, or the tax holidays offered by the host state? Remember Milton Friedman’s often-quoted quip: “The business of business is business!” And why would the governments signing those contracts not know whether and which foreign investment projects are best for their country, and how to attract them? This chapter tries to show that land grab, where it occurs, is not only yet another symptom of regulatory failures at the national level and a lack of corporate social responsibility by certain private actors. National governance is clearly the most important factor. Nonetheless, I submit that there is an international dimension involving investor home states in various capacities. The implication is that land grab is not solely a question whether a particular investment contract is legal or not. This chapter deals with legal issues which seem to have largely escaped the attention of both human rights lawyers and, especially, of investment lawyers. I address this fragmentation between different legal disciplines, rules, and policies, by asking two basic questions: (i) Do governments and parliaments in investor home countries have any responsibility in respect of the behaviour of their investors abroad? (ii) What should they and international regulators do, if anything?

Tracing the Evidence: The Use of Evaluation Results in Direct-Democratic Campaigns

Although research on direct-democratic campaigns in Switzerland has intensified in the last decade, detailed information on the use of evidence in campaigns is still lacking. Our research aims to contribute both to research on direct democracy and to research on evidence-based policy making, by analyzing how evaluation results are used in directdemocratic campaigns. In this conceptual paper, the formulation of our hypothesis is based on a model of evaluation influence that traces the different uses of evaluation results in the process of a direct-democratic campaign. We assume that the policy analytical capacity of individual members in parliament, government and administration in the (pre)-parliamentary process fosters the use of evidence in campaigns. In the course of the campaign, symbolic use of evaluation in the form of justification, persuasion or mobilization prevails. We assume that the media is an important player in making transparent how political actors use evidence to support their positions. Evidence itself often remains ambiguous and uncertain, and evaluations are influenced by the values of the evaluator. To be able to make the right decisions, therefore, citizens should learn about possible interpretations in argumentative processes. For us, the context of direct democracy in Switzerland provides the setting for such a discourse that, besides evidence, brings up different opinions, values and beliefs.

Search for direct top squark pair production in events with a Z boson, b-jets and missing transverse momentum in √s=8 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A search is presented for direct top squark pair production using events with at least two leptons including a same-flavour opposite-sign pair with invariant mass consistent with the Z boson mass, jets tagged as originating from b-quarks and missing transverse momentum. The analysis is performed with proton–proton collision data at √ s = 8 TeV collected with the ATLAS detector at the LHC in 2012 corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 20.3 fb−1. No excess beyond the Standard Model expectation is observed. Interpretations of the results are provided in models based on the direct pair production of the heavier top squark state (˜t2) followed by the decay to the lighter top squark state (˜t1) via ˜t2 → Z ˜t1, and for ˜t1 pair production in natural gaugemediated supersymmetry breaking scenarios where the neutralino (˜χ 01 ) is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle and decays producing a Z boson and a gravitino ( ˜G ) via the ˜χ 01→ Z ˜G process.

Achieving a more realistic assessment of rockfall hazards by coupling three-dimensional process models and field-based tree-ring data

Sound knowledge of the spatial and temporal patterns of rockfalls is fundamental for the management of this very common hazard in mountain environments. Process-based, three-dimensional simulation models are nowadays capable of reproducing the spatial distribution of rockfall occurrences with reasonable accuracy through the simulation of numerous individual trajectories on highly-resolved digital terrain models. At the same time, however, simulation models typically fail to quantify the ‘real’ frequency of rockfalls (in terms of return intervals). The analysis of impact scars on trees, in contrast, yields real rockfall frequencies, but trees may not be present at the location of interest and rare trajectories may not necessarily be captured due to the limited age of forest stands. In this article, we demonstrate that the coupling of modeling with tree-ring techniques may overcome the limitations inherent to both approaches. Based on the analysis of 64 cells (40 m × 40 m) of a rockfall slope located above a 1631-m long road section in the Swiss Alps, we illustrate results from 488 rockfalls detected in 1260 trees. We illustrate that tree impact data cannot only be used (i) to reconstruct the real frequency of rockfalls for individual cells, but that they also serve (ii) the calibration of the rockfall model Rockyfor3D, as well as (iii) the transformation of simulated trajectories into real frequencies. Calibrated simulation results are in good agreement with real rockfall frequencies and exhibit significant differences in rockfall activity between the cells (zones) along the road section. Real frequencies, expressed as rock passages per meter road section, also enable quantification and direct comparison of the hazard potential between the zones. The contribution provides an approach for hazard zoning procedures that complements traditional methods with a quantification of rockfall frequencies in terms of return intervals through a systematic inclusion of impact records in trees.

The Chloroplast-Localized Phospholipases D a4 and a5 Regulate Herbivore-Induced Direct and Indirect Defenses in Rice

The oxylipin pathway is of central importance for plant defensive responses. Yet, the first step of the pathway, the liberation of linolenic acid following induction, is poorly understood. Phospholipases D (PLDs) have been hypothesized to mediate this process, but data from Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana) regarding the role of PLDs in plant resistance have remained controversial. Here, we cloned two chloroplast-localized PLD genes from rice (Oryza sativa), OsPLDα4 and OsPLDα5, both of which were up-regulated in response to feeding by the rice striped stem borer (SSB) Chilo suppressalis, mechanical wounding, and treatment with jasmonic acid (JA). Antisense expression of OsPLDα4 and -α5 (as-pld), which resulted in a 50% reduction of the expression of the two genes, reduced elicited levels of linolenic acid, JA, green leaf volatiles, and ethylene and attenuated the SSB-induced expression of a mitogen-activated protein kinase (OsMPK3), a lipoxygenase (OsHI-LOX), a hydroperoxide lyase (OsHPL3), as well as a 1-aminocyclopropane-1-carboxylic acid synthase (OsACS2). The impaired oxylipin and ethylene signaling in as-pld plants decreased the levels of herbivore-induced trypsin protease inhibitors and volatiles, improved the performance of SSB and the rice brown planthopper Nilaparvata lugens, and reduced the attractiveness of plants to a larval parasitoid of SSB, Apanteles chilonis. The production of trypsin protease inhibitors in as-pld plants could be partially restored by JA, while the resistance to rice brown planthopper and SSB was restored by green leaf volatile application. Our results show that phospholipases function as important components of herbivore-induced direct and indirect defenses in rice.

Effects of Surface Forcing on Interannual Variability of the Fall Phytoplankton Bloom in the Gulf of Maine Revealed Using a Process-Oriented Model

SeaWiFS (Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor) chlorophyll data revealed strong interannual variability in fall phytoplankton dynamics in the Gulf of Maine, with 3 general features in any one year: (1) rapid chlorophyll increases in response to storm events in fall; (2) gradual chlorophyll increases in response to seasonal wind-and cooling-induced mixing that gradually deepens the mixed layer; and (3) the absence of any observable fall bloom. We applied a mixed-layer box model and a 1-dimensional physical-biological numerical model to examine the influence of physical forcing (surface wind, heat flux, and freshening) on the mixed-layer dynamics and its impact on the entrainment of deep-water nutrients and thus on the appearance of fall bloom. The model results suggest that during early fall, the surface mixed-layer depth is controlled by both wind-and cooling-induced mixing. Strong interannual variability in mixed-layer depth has a direct impact on short-and long-term vertical nutrient fluxes and thus the fall bloom. Phytoplankton concentrations over time are sensitive to initial pre-bloom profiles of nutrients. The strength of the initial stratification can affect the modeled phytoplankton concentration, while the timing of intermittent freshening events is related to the significant interannual variability of fall blooms.

Changing local elite selection in Thailand : emergence of new local government presidents after direct elections and their capabilities

Before rural local government units were established in Thailand, reform debates within the country faced a crucial issue: Candidates at the rural sub-district levels might adopt electioneering methods such as vote buying and the patronage system of the local political and economic elite, the methods that had been used in the national elections. In fact, the results of the 2006 survey in this paper, which followed the introduction of direct elections in rural local government units in 2003, contrast with the result anticipated during the debates on political reform. The preliminary data of the survey shows that the decentralization process and the introduction of the direct election system in the rural areas had some effect in changing the selection process of the local elite in Thailand.